Topic: FADE ME! - (46W - 33L) (+24.05 UNITS) FREE Daily Betting Tips - Startup Thread - page 15. (Read 12690 times)

We love this spot here for Leafs as home favorites.  They have to be ticked as they come off a 3-0 loss to Calgary and were shut out by their back up goalie.  They were beat in every aspect.  Calgary won 60% of their face offs while the Leafs won just 39% of the face offs which I expect to see change here today.  Toronto was 0-7 on the power play which included a 5 on 3 for a minute and a half.  I simply do not see the Leafs getting swept at home in this mini series especially coming off a shutout loss.  The Leafs will likely have Andersen back in goal who is 11-3-2 on the season with a 2.69 GAA.  The Flames prior to that win had lost 3 in a row and 4 of their last 5 games.  This is a team that has underperformed this season and very inconsistent.  The Leafs are the more consistent team as they have the #3 ranked offense averaging 3.60 goals per game vs the Flames offense that ranks #23 averaging 2.58 goals per game.  Given the fact that the Leafs were held scoreless on the power play going 0-7, I expect a bounce back here as they are tied for #1 in the league with the best power play at 33.3%.  The Leafs have a ton of game breakers and loaded on offense that Calgary does not have the depth to compete with.  Put it all together I will gladly take the Leafs as home favorites off a shut out loss to get the job done.  Let's not forget they have just 4 regulation losses on the season.  This game also matches some profitable systems that we have been on this year.  The Leafs are 7-1 their last 8 revenge games.  Favorite's off a loss (69-30, 70%).  Flames are 2-8 in their last 10 games as an underdog.

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South Carolina has a legitimate chance of winning this game outright in our opinion. This is a game that no one is giving South Carolina a chance in and they are wrong. Mississippi State was very fortunate to win that game over Ole Miss. Shuler had just 4 points in that game and went 1/15 from the field who is Ole Miss's star. That is the reason why Mississippi State was gifted with a win there and if you read the press clippings you will have realized that Frank Martin said that in 35 years, he has never had a team basically lay down of late and his team likely took that personal. This is a South Carolina team that I think has talent and they are simply young and haven't put it together. But, they have a great coach who gets them up for road games, for example, they won on the road at Florida. South Carolina lost to Alabama by 3 points and is still top 20 in the nation in offensive rebounding. And, for as good as Mississippi State is, they are nearly 300th in turnover percentage and are one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the nation. South Carolina lost to this team by 11 points earlier this year and I think they get after it today with a great effort and fall inside the number.

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Both of these sides come into their first leg match in pretty strong form, Real Madrid have won their last four in a row and Atalanta have won three on the trot and unbeaten in five. But we see the visitors are the side with the advantage here and it’s not just because of their name. Real Madrid’s defense has been tough of late, they are riding three straight clean sheets. On the road, Real have won their last three outscoring their opponents 7-2 over that stretch. So this form is interesting with its team hit hard by injuries and a second choice defense lining up. However good teams find that extra gear when backed into a corner, when their stars are out, they often play up, and this likely line up has a lot to prove. For Atalanta, they are as healthy as they can be with just really one player out. Because of the disparity in this, they will likely be over confident heading into this match. At home they have won their last two in a row but do have a 3-1 loss to Lazio who were crushed by Bayern Munich in their opening Champions League match. Atalanta did go unbeaten in their last three group stage matches to finish second and move onto the knockout stages. However, they are winless in their last four at home with a 5-0 loss to Liverpool and a 2-1 to PSG, both sides that are on par with Real Madrid’s talent.

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We love the over here between these two teams.  All 3 meetings have gone under this season with Ottawa taking 2 of 3 from the Canadiens.  Ottawa has also held Montreal to just 2 goals in each of the 3 games.  I think something has got to give here and Montreal likely busts out here coming off that 3-2 loss in OT last time out.  They still have the 8th ranked offense averaging 3.35 goals per game, meanwhile you have a Ottawa defense that ranks last allowing an average of 4 goals per game.  When Ottawa has allowed two goals or fewer, the following outing they have allowed 2,3,5, and 7 goals.  I do not trust them to keep Montreal in check two games in a row.  The last game saw 71 shots and both teams combined for 0-7 on the powerplay and we still saw 5 goals.  Put it all together we think this one finally goes over today. .

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Golden State comes in off back to back losses so they should be focused and motivated in this one. They lost their last game by two points at Charlotte but the Warriors were without star play Steph Curry in that contest but he should be back for this game tonight. The Hornets also hit 20 of 40 from behind the three point line making the fact Golden State without Curry losing by only two points even more impressive.

On the other side of things the New York Knicks have had a huge break in their schedule of late playing 9 of their last 10 games against teams with a losing record this season. The Knicks will also be without Mitchell Robinson in this one as his loss is big as Robinson has developed into a very good and unique player for New York and it's extremely difficult to replace his minutes.

Lay the points with Golden State.

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Arizona State was actually up by 10 points at the half against UCLA. They were playing phenomenal against one of the best teams in the country and just laid an egg late in the game and did not score in the last 3 minutes. They were playing so well if you watched that game. Remember, Washington is not a good shooting team at all and yes they beat Cal, but they won that game by scoring what, 61 points or so. This is an Arizona State team that beat Oregon State who is actually playing quite well recently and the fact that they are top 10 in the nation in turnover margin is of very important note. Plus, this team shot 44% from the field against UCLA, put up 79 points and shot 10/20 from 3 point land. Does Washington really match that kind of intensity against a Arizona State team who just lost back to back road games against UCLA and USC. Washington has trouble scoring and they have not won back to back games in forever and we will ride Arizona State with plenty of motivation to get it done today.

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Auburn just gave up 110 points to LSU who shot 50% from the field. What do you expect Auburn to do? They ran into a buzzsaw at LSU and it was the most points an Auburn team has given up since 2017. This team is not as bad as their results have shown lately and to be frank, I don't think Florida is all that great. They beat Georgia but nearly collapsed late in the game as they had 20 turnovers but still were fortunate to win. They run into an Auburn team that is very upset after a horrible effort and beating Florida will certainly remedy the situation somewhat. I think Auburn comes out feisty, with a great defensive effort and has an awesome game today and they bounce-back in a solid way. Florida is suspect as they did lose to Arkansas and South Carolina earlier this year and they can lay an egg when you least expect them too.

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Lazio may think they are getting Bayern at a low point and after the German Champions lost at Frankfurt 2-1 and drew 3-3 against Arminia Bielefeld in their last two matches, that may seem the case. But this is poor run hit right after their return from the Club World Cup which they won. This is like waking a sleeping Giant, Bayern have not had a three match winless run since September/October 2018 when they had a four match winless run. Bayern's last two match winless run saw them beat Freiburg 2-1 in their next match. The Germans hold a two point lead in the Bundesliga. For Lazio, they come off a solid 1-0 home win against Sampdoria over the weekend which was a great bounce back from their 3-1 loss at Inter Milan. Lazio reached the knockout round through not being the worse of a weak group. They were 2-0-4 in the group stages, picking up and opening match 3-1 win over Dortmund. They will be facing a much different German team here and will need to get their mind right. Lazio, though winners of three of their last five overall, will find it difficult to keep up their Bayern.

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The Wizards are playing well right now. They are 4-0 ATS in their last four games. They won all those games SU, including matchups against Denver, Portland and Boston. No pushovers there. This is probably a game they have been looking forward to as almost all teams have their visit to the defending champs circled. The Lakers haven't been playing up to oddsmaker expectations as they are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games. They aren't in top form with losses in three of their last four. We think the Wizards come to play tonight and expect a close game.

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Texas Tech was in a tough spot on Saturday as they were playing their first game in 11 days and cause of that they looked a bit rusty early on in the contest. The Red Raiders found a way to hang around in that game and all things considered it was a decent showing as they lost by just 6 points on the road against a red hot Kansas squad. It's never easy for a team after a long layoff but they usually play much better in their 2nd game back. I expect maximum effort, focus and intensity from TTU in this one tonight as they come into this game having dropped their last two games and they also lost in overtime earlier this year to this Oklahoma State team.

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I love this spot for the Lightning as they come off a 4-0 shutout loss to the Hurricanes last time out.  In fact they have lost twice now to the Hurricanes this season being shut out in both.  I simply do not see that being the case here today.  Lightning got to be a bit ticked as they had both their games cancelled vs Dallas due to covid protocols and then found out they had to travel to Carolina as the NHL rescheduled.  So I am not surprised they came out flat in that game.  This is a team that has only lost back to back games once this season and typically responds well after a loss.  They have not lost 3 games in a row the Hurricanes in 11 years and last 8 times they have lost 2 games in a row they have bounced back in 6 of those games.  The Lightning were shut out by the Hurricanes third string goalie, so I expect them to be primed and ready today.  I get that the Hurricanes have played well this season but I think the motivation of the Lightning will be too much for them today.  Look for the Lightning to have a big game and grab the win.  This season favorite's off a loss vs an opponent off a win (44-20, 69%).  Also favorite's off a loss (64-25, 72%).  Lightning are 20-8 in the last 28 meetings.  Lightning are 14-5 in the last 19 meetings in Carolina

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Juventus are in danger of missing out on Europe next season if their current form continues. They have lost their last two and are winless in their last three. After losing 1-0 to Napoli in Serie A, Juventus were unable to get into a groove in their first leg match at Porto in the Champions League, losing 2-1 on Wednesday. This is the first time since July/August 2020 that Juventus have lost back to back matches, however they are unbeaten at home in their last eight. This is a match Juventus should win easily, with Crotone sitting in last place in Serie A on 12 points, eight points back from safety and having lost their last four matches. However, Crotone fought hard in their last match, losing 2-1 to eighth place Sassuolo. They have played well against Juventus in the past, they drew 1-1 in October at home, their second 1-1 outcome in a row. There is more pressure on Juventus to do well here, to move up the table and challenge for the title which is running away from them.

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We love the Jets here in this spot as they come off a loss to the Oilers.  Jets are typically a good team to back off a loss.  They also have some revenge here as they lost their only meeting with Vancouver 4-1 earlier this year at home.  The Canucks have been a very inconsistent team this year and come off a 5-1 win against Calgary so I can see them having a let down here against a motivated Jets squad.  I think we are getting good value here on the Jets who are overall the better, more consistent team.  Not to mention they have a big edge in goal and on the defensive end.  Add on the fact the Jets have had the Canucks number overall winning 14 of their last 16 against the Canucks.  I expect a complete game here from the Jets, grabbing the win.  Canucks are 2-7 in their last 9 overall.  Jets are 6-2 in their last 8 games playing on 1 days rest. 

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Wisconsin Green Bay has faced a tough schedule this year. Remember, this team Minnesota, Wisconsin, Marquette, and Wright State twice. Illinois Chicago has had a very fortunate schedule and they have not faced anyone overly difficult all year long. Green Bay has a first year coach in Will Ryan who is always looking to improve his team and make an impact as well. This team nearly beat Northern Kentucky twice as Northern Kentucky is a very competent team and that says something and the fact that at least in one game this team dropped 70+ points on Wright State says something too. This team turned the ball over just 8 times in the Wright State game whereas you have a UIC team here who just gave up 88 and 89 points to IUPUI and that was despite IUPUI having 16 turnovers. Even though UIC has a more veteran team, we like Green Bay here to possibly pick up the road win and we will ride them here.

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Steph didn't have a great shooting the game the game prior but he still scored 25 points but it was the first time in many games he did not shoot 50% from the field and we get that. But, remember, this Magic team just destroyed the Knicks and there was a reason for that - and why the line was just 4.5 points in that game. Fournier came back, William came back and Aminu played 11 minutes last game and he got his legs back to a bit more likely for this game. Even without some of these guys, this Magic team took the Warriors to the limit and lost basically by a bucket last time. Plus, Steph plays Charlotte his next game, remember, he is from the Charlotte area and went to school in Davidson up there as well and what more than likely happens here is, the Magic put forth a great effort, they are healthier, they have revenge, they have some players back who will make a big difference today and they always get after it on defense and therefore, like the Magic here with the points.

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These two teams are separated by just two points in the table with Leeds in 11th and Wolves in 12th. They both come into this match in mixed form, Wolves winners of their last match, 2-1 at an imploding Southampton after being knocked out of the FA Cup by the same Southampton side at home. The host are just 2-2-1 in their last five overall and 1-3-1 at home. Unlike Leeds who lost 4-2 to Arsenal in their last outing, Wolves last home win was a 2-1 win over Arsenal. That is not saying match as Leeds have a better last five match record at 3-2-0 with a strong 3-1 win at Leicester City. Away from home though Leeds are just 2-3-0 overall, but 3-2-0 away in the Premier League. So why Leeds? We see Leeds as the most dangerous side in England, they can come out and drop 5 goals on you or give up 4 goals, their unpredictability makes them dangerous. They play a wide open, pedal to the medal style of soccer that is enjoyable to watch, but also heart wrenching when it goes bad. Add in, Leeds have not beaten Wolves since a Championship meeting in 2016 at Wolves where Leeds won 1-0. Wolves won 1-0 at Leeds in October. With Leeds style of play and Wolves long winning streak over the visitors, we just do not see the host pulling this one out.

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We like to give sides usually but we dislike all the sides on the board today. Raptors are without Lowry, so they could step up, but Bucks have revenge, the Kings have revenge but Miami off giving up a 14 point lead with 6 minutes left to the Warriors and then you have this game with the Nets at full strength possibly but the Lakers are without Davis but will want to step up here without Davis as well as Lebron loves challenges. So, what we will do is go with the Under in this game. Here is the deal, the Lakers can only compete in this game through defense and definitely not through their offense. With AD being out, it comes down the Lakers ability to defend and they will take it as a huge challenge to lock these Nets down today. This Lakers team held Minnesota, Memphis to 104 and 104 and the Nuggets to 93 points. And now, 3 future hall of famers come into town and this team doesn't step up on defense, of course they do. Look for a fantastic defensive effort here by the Lakers and even when they have the lead, they likely slow down the pace themselves as this game likely goes Under today.

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Today, we like the Utes as we suspect they remember losing to Oregon State last year in a last second 3 pointer and the final score was 69-71. This team does have their 2nd leading scorer out as he is from Finland and has a Euro Tournament to attend to, but I think they will be fine here as this is their 3rd game without him. Note, that this team went to Stanford and lost a tight contest without Januten and Jones and they had Allen, Plummer and Carlson all play very well frankly. And, they shot 55% from 2 point field goals and less than 30% from 3 point land. I think that changes in this game, look for them to shoot much better from beyond the arc here and as good as Oregon State is, they have lost 3 straight and sure they are on a bounce-back, but note that Oregon State has not beat a team in the top 100 in their last 7 games as well. We like Utah's ability to make 2 point field goals at a good rate, I think they shoot a little better from 3 and of course a little revenge goes a long way too.

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We are rolling with the Rangers here as small road dogs to get the job done.  The Rangers are in desperate need of a win and I think this is a great spot for them.  We have seen this line come down and money come in on the Rangers, signaling that the Rangers are likely an active dog here.  They are catching Philly in a great spot.  The Flyers have not played in nearly two weeks due to covid protocols.  We have seen this week how tough it is for teams to come back after a lengthy delay.  It takes a few games for teams to get that chemistry back and it's not done in one game. The Flyers are likely still to be without some of their key contributors as they have 5 of their players still on the covid list like Giroux, Voracek, and Konecny to name a few.  Lets not forget that the Flyers have a big outdoor game this weekend against the Bruins are team that they are 0-4 against this season.  This is likely a look ahead spot for them and a game more to just find their legs and chemistry.  Not sure how motivated they are to get up to face the Rangers.  I will take the Rangers in this spot to finally grab a big win.  This is an excellent public fade to boot.  

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We are going with the visitors in this Europa League clash as one of the perennial powerhouses of this competition look to extend their unbeaten run to ten matches today. Currently in first place in Scotland, Rangers have a 15 point lead over Celtic. Rangers cruised through qualifying and the group stage going 7-2 this season in this competition. Away from home, Rangers are 4-0-1 this season and have just two away losses in their last 14 matches. This season Rangers outscored their opponents 16-3 on the road, with the 3 goals conceded at Benfica. They also won their last two matches, 3-2 at home to Standard Liege and 3-0 at Lech Poznan. For Antwerp, They are winless in their last two, coming off s 1-1 draw at Standard Liege and a 3-1 loss at Club Brugge in their domestic Cup competition. Antwerp have won their last two at home, but dropped a 2-1 decision to fourth place KV Oostende. Antwerp did loss their last Europe League match, 2-0 at Tottenham and were 4-2-0 in the group stage this season, losing 1-0 at home to LASK.

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