Topic: FADE ME! - (46W - 33L) (+24.05 UNITS) FREE Daily Betting Tips - Startup Thread - page 17. (Read 12658 times)

We are going with the home side as their Premier League form has been pretty strong of late. They are coming off a hard fought 1-0 FA Cup loss at Leicester City that snapped a seven match unbeaten run overall. But in the League, Brighton are unbeaten in their last seven, last losing at Manchester. City 1-0. At home, Brighton won their last match, 1-0 over a very good Tottenham side in January. The host have moved up the table with this form, currently in 15th place on 25 points, ten points clear of relegation and really needing seven more points to put themselves in a solid spot for safety. For Aston Villa, they have moved into ninth place on 35 points and are just four points back of a Europa League spot. They did have this week off as they were knocked out of the FA Cup by Liverpool in early January. In their last five matches the visitors are 3-2-0 and are coming off a somewhat uninspired 1-0 win over Arsenal at home. Away from home they did win their last match, winning 1-0 over 12th place Southampton which snapped a three match away losing streak and a four match winless run. Brighton won this tie back in November at Aston Villa 2-1, with the last meeting at Brighton ending in a 1-1 draw. Expect an over confident Villa side to show up for this tie as we expect Brighton to run away with this.

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PSG is without Neymar for at least a month, this may not mean much to a side so stacked with talent, but it may put questions into the players mind as to why Neymar was used against Ligue 2 side Caen in the Coupe de France. PSG narrowly pulled out the 1-0 win at Caen with a strong side. Overconfidence and a lack of squad rotation could prove a stumbling block for PSG. They have won three in a row and have not given up a goal in that span since losing 3-2 at Lorient. This is not the dominate season we have seen in the past from PSG as they sit three points back of leaders Lille and one point back of second place Lyon, however the host are on a six match winning streak at home where they have given up just 1 goal. So why take Nice over PSG? Nice are in 13th place 22 points back of PSG in the league. They have won their last two including a 3-0 win over eighth place Angers. Add in their last two defeats were by just a single goal, 1-0 loss to Saint-Etienne and a 2-1 loss at fourth place Monaco. This is a hiccup match for PSG, this has a ton of overlook for the host with Barcelona on deck in the Champions League mid-week. These two drew 1-1 the last time they played at PSG.

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Today, we roll with the Blues as road favorites to get the job done.  These two teams are hooking up for a 4th straight game due to Covid and rescheduling spots around the league.  The Blues have dropped 3 straight at home to the Yotes, and I think maybe a change of scenery will help them out here, as they have to be ticked after having the last game locked up but allow a game tying goal with just a few seconds left only to lose in a shootout.  I expect a motivated and eager Blues team to out firing here today.  The Blues are a good road team as they are 4-1 on the season, while this being the first home game back after an extended road trip for the Yotes, I think they come out a bit flat here.  The Yotes are just 2-7 at home after a road trip of a week or more.  I think we are getting good value on a motivated Blues team, and we like them to bounce back here today.  Blues are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a road favorite.  Blues are 10-3 in the last 13 meetings in Arizona. 

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You have a 9-7 Georgia Tech team here facing a 12-5 Clemson team. Note, give Clemson credit, they are 12-5 now and it looked like early on they might truly struggle but they have hung in there all season. This team lost 65-83 earlier this year to Georgia Tech when they were not playing good defense. It was 3 games in a row where they had given up 83, 85 and 80 points to the likes of Virginia, FSU and Georgia Tech but they have cleaned up that mess. Remember, Georgia Tech was leading 40-25 at the half against Clemson earlier this year and Clemson has gotten better since then. This team has quietly beat Syracuse by 17 and UNC by 13 and did beat Louisville by 4 earlier this year as well. Their calling card is their defense and it is hard to imagine they gave up 83 points to Tech again here today and 40 points by the halftime to Tech again. Tech shot horribly against Virginia and their star Devoe went 1/10 from the field including missing all 5 of his 3 pointers. The last time these two teams played, Tech's 3 biggest stars helped Tech make 16 (3 pointers). I think the difference here is that Tech has to shoot lights out or they don't have a chance in this game and I think they will shoot better than they did at Virginia, however, this Clemson team is 7-1 at home and they are likely going to lock down here on defense and I think Clemson gets it done today.

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This is a bit scary but I think New Orleans has a great chance of winning this game Outright. Remember, New Orleans lost all 4 games to this Dallas team last year. They will be motivated coming in. They lost 120-123 to Dallas in overtime to Dallas last time around as well and this is a team that has beat Houston, Memphis, Indiana and Phoenix before laying a huge egg to Chicago and giving up 130 points to Chicago at that . They were -2.5 point favorites that game and lost and Dallas beat Atlanta by 1 game in a game they never should have won as they were down by 13 points and the refs might have missed a foul on the last play as well and Gallinari missed the winning shot. Chicago shot 40+ points in the 1st quarter, and shot 59% from the field and 53% from 3 point land last game and New Orleans will be heavily focused on the defensive end this game. Remember, whereas Trae Young takes crazy shots, the Pelicans are a bit more disciplined, they will not let another team beat them 14-40 in the 3rd quarter like the Bulls did and I think the Pelicans come out focused and play well here for the possible outright win but we will take the 3 points as well.

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Portland beat this team just 7 days ago without Dame in a shocker with a final score of 121-105 on a total of 226. In fact, the Blazers have now beat this team the last 2 times and one has to think that Doc is tired of losing to this team even when he was with the Clippers. Remember, the Dame wave to Paul George when he called it a terrible shot. Philly has quietly won 6 of 7 games and they are playing very good basketball right now. It is always tough to go against Dame on the road and in primetime, but Philly has some big wins lately including beating the Kings, Nets, Hornets, Pacers and others. Note, the Blazers outscored this team 40-19 in the 3rd quarter the last time they played them and I think the Sixers will not overlook Portland today and likely get it done.

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We are rolling with the Hurricanes as road favorites today. The line opened a pick'em and yet we have seen money come in on the Hurricanes and I agree. I know its a little scary given the Hurricanes have beaten the Stars twice already this year but they have played better hockey I have felt. We have already seen the Hurricanes beat the defending Stanley Cup Champs shutting out the Lightning 1-0 which isn't easy to do and they have beaten the Stars twice who were in the Cup finals. Reimer is likely to get the start for the Hurricanes and he has been lights out since taking over for Mrazek who went down with an injury. Reimer is 5-1 on the season thus far. On the flip side you have a Stars team that came out on fire out of the gates going 4-0 their first 4 games while seeing their offense tear it up. Since then that has not been the case and their offense is sputtering managing just two goals in their last two games against a much weaker Blackhawks team. The other thing you have to ask yourself is who did the Stars beat in those first 4 games? They dominated the Predators and Red Wings, who are bottom tier teams. I think we are getting good value here on the better team with the Hurricanes and I simply trust their offense a little more at this point. Take the Hurricanes. Favorites off a loss this season 47-16 (75%). Favorite with a line move in their direction of 10 cents or more 33-10 (77%). Stars are 2-6 in their last 8 games as an underdog. Hurricanes are 7-3 in their last 10 games as a road favorite.

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Per this selection, Stanford I think is getting better at the right time. This is not the same team that faced Colorado earlier this year and lost by 13 points. It's interesting this total is set at 138 this time versus 141 last time which makes us think Stanford likely plays better defense this time around. Remember, Colorado just beat Arizona and comes off destroying Oregon State. However, Colorado let people in, mainly family into the game for Arizona and the Oregon State game which was a nice boost for them. But, they are not at home anymore and go to Stanford where Stanford gets back a key contributor in Williamson. Note, that Stanford comes off sweeping California, which is not overly impressive, but did only lost to USC by 6 who is the best team in the conference, and lost to a good Arizona State team on the rise as well by 4 points, beat Arizona on the road and also beat a good UCLA team. I think Colorado has not been challenged of late yet and you are likely to see a very motivated Stanford team here who likely does very well and we like Stanford to pick up the win here today.

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The FA Cup 5th round wraps up today with two matches and we are backing Southampton on the road to move on. Southampton are due, they have lost four in a row, but are still in 12th place, two spots ahead of Wolves by two points in the EPL. Southampton beat a revitalized Arsenal side in the last round, but were not able to make it two in a row against the London side, losing 3-1 just a few days later. They lost a second in a row at home to Aston Villa, before an ugly 9-0 defeat at Manchester United where they were down to nine men at one point. Add in a 3-2 loss at Newcastle and you have four losses in a row. We expect their shellshock from the loss at Manchester United has to be over and they have an opportunity for a positive result. For Wolves, they are 2-1-2 in their last five. They struggled to a 1-0 win in the last round against lower league side Chorley. Since that win, Wolves have had strong showings at Chelsea, a scoreless draw, a 2-1 win at home over Arsenal, and another scoreless draw at home to Leicester. Wolves have played the top teams well this season at home, but they have dropped matches to Everton and West Brom of late. The last two matches at Wolves have ended with a 1-1 draw between these two sides.

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This is a Hawks team that just lost to this Dallas team recently at home in a game that was tight. This time around though we roll with the Hawks as the Mavs have Zion on deck but more importantly, these Hawks are going to have learn how to play without Hunter for 6 weeks. They still will need a good game out of Galinari, Young, Reddish and others as well as Collins but I think they will get it. We are not overly impressed with the fact the Mavs beat a depleted Golden State team with no center or beat Minnesota and I think what is likely to happen here is the Hawks will be motivated, they have revenge and we will get the best effort out of the Hawks today in a tight contest that seems them inside the number.

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Toronto has averaged 4.4 goals per game over their last 5 games holding opponents to just 2.4 goals per game against them. Toronto is 7-0 in their last 7 games when playing a team that has a winning record and they are a red hot 7-1 in their last 8 games overall. Montreal’s penalty kill has struggled this season with opponents converting 20.4% against them with the extra man and their power-play has struggled big time over their last 5 games converting at just 10.5% with the extra man. Play Toronto Moneyline.

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Note, Wake Forrest won last year by 18 points with Danny Manning as their head coach and now they have an even better coach in Steve Forbes. Sure, BC does have a little revnge coming in, but we like Steve Forbes a lot and we like the fact they come off their worst loss of the year at Notre Dame. This team only scored 58 points, remember had only 6 turnovers that agme, and this is a team that has won two recent conference games after not having won any. This team beat Miami by 12 and beat Pittsburgh recently as well and played a very tight game against Virginia Tech. Note, Wake will have Dubose back for this game which will give them a nice boost and though Boston College is a team that has bite and potential, they have been ravaged by covid and only had 4 scholarship players play last game against NC State. Though a few more will suit up here the difference here is that Wake's coaching is sound, they have had extra time to practie and clean up some mistakes and I think that will show here. Note, we also think that Georgia Tech, Rutgers are likely to do well today as well as Tennessee, but we will roll with Wake today.

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Swansea sit in third place in England's second division, one point back of Brentford in second place and two points back of Norwich in first place, though they have played one more match. Swansea have won their last two matches, coming off a strong 2-0 home win over first place Norwich, which extended their unbeaten run to ten matches. At home, Swansea are unbeaten in their last 12 matches. You have to go back to October 2019 to find Swansea's last home loss of 3 goals or more. For Man City, we expect a pretty heavy lineup change from their huge 4-1 win over Liverpool over the weekend. This win extended their winning streak to 14 matches and their unbeaten run to 21 matches. City were slow out of the blocks in the last round at Cheltenham Town where they made significant changes to their lineup. With the matches piling up for City, even though they have a lead at the top of the table, they will be looking ahead. Swansea have a change to snapped a huge City run, that really needs to have a hiccup here instead of in the League. City last played Swansea in 2019 in the FA Cup where they won at Swansea 3-2.

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I'm rolling with the Stars as home favorites today.  We really like this spot for the Stars as they look to bounce back after an OT loss to the Blackhawks last time out. Taking a favorite off a loss this season has been a great spot as they are 45-13 (78%).  Chicago as a +140 dog on the road and held the league's 3rd best offense to just one goal.  I simply do not see that happening here today.  Chicago ranks near the bottom of the NHL allowing 2.92 goals per game while the Stars rank 3rd in offense scoring an average of 3.67 goals per game.  The Stars at home are allowing just 1.60 goals per game.  I think the Blackhawks will be over matched here today and the Stars will be motivated to get a split in this mini set of games.  Take the Stars at home.  Blackhawks are 5-18 in their last 23 road games.  Stars are 7-2 in their last 9 games as a favorite


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These two teams just met and the Heat won by about 5 points here and though the Knicks have revenge, we still like Miami here to get it done as they are starting to play much better now that Butler has come back. This team's offensive output has jumped 3 points and their defensive output has jumped 5 points as well with Jimmy back. Note that the Knicks just acquired Derrick Rose and that is bound to create some excitement here for New York but we like Miami here as note that this is a Miami team that won their last game with Butler shooting 3/11 from the field and just 17 points. Miami had 6 players in double figures to their credit and the Knicks shot 45% from 2 point land and still lost their last game. Miami has balanced scoring, are getting healthy at the right time and we think they likely beat the Knicks by an even wider margin today than their last game.

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You have 5-12 team favored over a 14-5 team which is always interesting and sometimes it is not warranted but I think today it is warranted. Kentucky has won this game the last 8 times and of course that will motivate Arkansas which is fine. But, if you watched the Tennessee vs. Kentucky game, you will know the final score was not indicative of how close that contest was. Tennessee pulled away late but Kentucky hung in that game and even scored 42 points at the half against Tennessee's defense. This Kentucky team has faced 3 straight ranked opponents and lost by 5 to Missouri, 11 to Alabama and has been in ever game they have played except for the first contest against Alabama earlier in the year. This game matters as every game from here on out as this team looks to get to .500 in the SEC for a look at other post-season tournaments and not just March Madness and if this team can get it together, they can certainly play in March Madness by winning the SEC Tournament. Arkansas is 2-4 on the road in conference play so it is not that they are like road warriors here and Kentucky only had 13 turnovers against Tennessee which is excellent and note that Kentucky shot 45% from 2 point land against Tennessee which is excellent. Arkansas also shot 2/17 from 3 point land against Mississippi State and State also had 17 turnovers which was fortunate for Arkansas. Arkansas also went 10/30 from 2 point field goals and I honestly think Kentucky is doing the small things right here and I think they finally, likely get it done here and win a conference game.

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I like the Championship side Bournemouth in the 5th round of the FA Cup. They come off a solid 3-2 win over Birmingham City over the weekend, snapping a two match losing streak. They beat Crawley Town 2-1 at home in the last round, their only other win in their last seven matches. This current form has Bournemouth down to the last playoff spot in 6th place, with a five point buffer ahead of Middlesbrough. With their league form staling, this is a great opportunity for the visitors to find some much needed motivation. For Burnley, They snapped a two match losing streak with a 1-1 draw at home to Brighton. They were down a goal early, but fought back for a point, though they sit just above the drop zone with 23 points, they are 8 points clear. Burnley cruised to a 3-0 win in the last round over Fulham, but sine that win, have gone 1-2-1. Burnley have won the last four meetings against Bournemouth, including a 3-0 home win last season. The Cherry’s will be highly motivated to get one over on the host and move onto the next round.

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Let's go with the Over here between these two teams in what should be a game filled with fireworks today. Yes, the total is set high and we are aware of that but we have this game as high as 252 today. Note, you have a Washington team that scored 97 and 98 points and that is going to bust out today. This team has scored less than a 100 points in back to back games and that is not going to sit well with this team. You have a Chicago team that put up 122 against Portland, 123 against Charlotte and 125 against Houston and Billy Donovan has revamped this team's offense in a huge way as well. So, you have a highly motivated Washington team, and a highly motivated Chicago team and what you should see here is a high paced game that likely goes over the posted total today. Look for a high octane game and look for Washington press the gas pedal here in what should be a fantastic high scoring affair.

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Per this selection, we think it will be a high scoring affair here. You have a Nebraska team that only scored in the mid 50's last game but they have hung in there in every game of late. Think about it, they just faced an elite Michigan State defense and scored 56 yes, but they put up 76 against Indiana and though they have not won a conference game this year, outside of the Ohio State game, they have been in every game as a potential underdog. You have a Minnesota team of course off 3 straight losses and just faced an elite Rutgers defense and still managed to score 70+ points. So, what you have here is two teams that are going to bust out likely on offense for different reasons. You have a Nebraska team that is likely to bust out here as a good motivated underdog who has been playing better and you have a Minnesota team that faced an elite Rutgers defense that is likely to bust out as this game likely goes over the posted total.

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Both of these sides need to pick up points as the season starts to inch further and further along. Leeds sit in 11th place on 29 points, likely only needing six or seven more points to secure another season in the EPL while Palace sit in 13th place, level on points with Leeds and Southampton, but worse on goal difference. However, Palace are the more in-form side winning their last two including a 2-1 win at Newcastle United. Aside from the crushing 4-0 loss at league leaders Manchester City, Palace have played some strong football of late. For Leeds, they are 2-3-0 in their last five, losing their last two at home. Leeds also have just two wins at home in their last nine matches. Leeds are one of the few sides in the Prem that can score 3 or 4 goals in a match but can give up 3 or 4 at the same time. They live by a wide open style of play, but they just do not have the defensive strength to cover.

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