Topic: FADE ME! - (46W - 33L) (+24.05 UNITS) FREE Daily Betting Tips - Startup Thread - page 16. (Read 12690 times)

We roll with Indiana here as one has to think they are going to be motivated after laying an egg against the Chicago Bulls. But, then again, the Bulls were motivated coming into that game after a tough loss the previous game so don't hold it against Indiana too much. Indiana was out rebounded by more than 10 in that game, they didn't play particularly horrible, but their defensive intensity was lacking and I think it shows up here. KAT is back for Minnesota which is great but they are just 1-3 with him back right now. This team comes off a near big win over the Lakers and I think they will be sleep walking a bit through this game. Whereas Indiana comes off a tough loss, I think Minnesota feels pretty good about their effort last game and they run into a team that is going to do all the little things right today in my opinion in the Pacers. The Pacers are 8-2 ATS of late against teams with a sub .500 record and I think that carries over today.

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Per this selection, I think this is a game that Vanderbilt can win outright so we will take the 4.5 points here. The last time these two teams met, Vandy was actually up quite a bit at the half and they simply could not close that game. But, Vanderbilt is different now, much different than they were from that team. This team just beat Mississippi State despite Disu their 2nd best scorer scoring 8 points. That is because they had 4 players in double-digits last game and they finally have the balanced scoring they have sought so much. This team beat South Carolina, now they beat Mississippi State in dominant fashion and they are facing a Kentucky team who just beat Auburn by 2 points, who could be in for a let down and don't forget, that Vanderbilt only shot 14 free throws in the Kentucky game back in January to Kentucky's 32 free throws. The difference here is the emergency of Browns/Evans for Vanderbilt and the confidence Vanderbilt now has in themselves which they did not have a month ago.

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Today we roll with the Hurricanes as home favorites.  Lots to like about this Hurricanes team right now as their offense is rolling.  They have the 3rd ranked offense scoring an average of 3.62 goals per game.  They face a Florida team that has the 19th ranked defense.  Florida has the ability to score but where the Hurricanes separate themselves is their ability to stop the puck.  The Hurricanes are only allowing 1.75 GAA at home this season.  The Panthers come off a big series win against Tampa so they could have a bit of a let down here.  I think Carolina opened a sizeable favorite for a reason and they are the better overall team despite both teams coming in hot.  The Florida/Tampa series is always a big rivalry so I would not be surprised if the Panthers are a bit flat here today.  I will take the better defensive team here with the Hurricanes at home.  Panthers are 11-33-2 in the last 46 meetings in Carolina.  Hurricanes are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning % above .600. 

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I like for Man City’s bubble to deflate a bit as they travel to Goodison Park this afternoon. The visitors are on a nearly unprecedented winning streak, winning 16 in a row and unbeaten in 23 straight. During this run City have not given up more than 1 goal and keeping 17 clean sheets. They have pulled themselves together after early season struggles and hold a seven point lead at the top of the table. So why Everton? Everton were the hottest team in England at the start of the season. After a few stumbles, they have pulled themselves up to seventh place and are only five points back of a Europa League spot with two games in hand. Unsurprisingly Everton dropped their last match to Fulham, 2-0 at home after a thrilling extra time 5-4 win over Tottenham in the FA Cup. They also had a huge comeback at Manchester United drawing 3-3 two weekends ago. This is a side City have a chance to overlook and a side that is playing the top sides well. Wins over Tottenham, Arsenal, Leicester City, and Chelsea plus draws against Liverpool, Leicester City, and Manchester United. Everton do have a winning record at home against City, 86-21-23.

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We are rolling with the Avalanche today to bounce back.  I think the Avs shook the rust off last game as they come off a loss where they were shut out 1-0.  That was the first time this season they were shut out.  This is a high output offense with tons of talent so I see them getting their offense clicking here today.  The Avs have one of the best goalies in Grubauer who comes in with a 1.61 GAA and .937 SV% and I expect another great game from him today.  The Avs were buzzing all night but Fleury stood on his head and played a great game.  That said the Avs hit a few posts and had those gone in it could have been a different game.  I get that Fleury is playing well but I think the fact the Avs come off being shut out and they had not played in 12 days, will get back on track here today and bust out grabbing a win.  Avalanche are 7-1 in their last 8 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game.

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It's never a bad idea to back a good team and we do that here with Phoenix. This team has incredible depth at this point and the Nets will still be without Durant coming into this game and they come off a splendid contest in their last game up by nearly as 30 points against the Kings before the Kings made a come back. The difference here is how well the Suns play defense and how well the Suns want to send a message. Remember, the Suns have great depth, great coaching, have a good floor leader in Paul and are healthy now with Booker and Ayton playing well. Look for the Suns to get after it here, prove a point, they lost by 20+ points to this team last year and at the end of the day, the Suns will be very excited about this contest and are one of the hottest teams in the league with great youth as well and that likely makes the difference here today.

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Florida won last 3 times these two teams have played each other so of course Arkansas has revenge, but we still like Florida on the road today. Note, that South Carolina just took it to Florida at Florida and it was a bad loss for this team. Florida is better than that and they have played well since the odd injury to Johnson and this team has some big wins on its resume including West Virginia and destroying Tennessee. Arkansas is of course red hot right now winning 6 of their last 7 games but I think Florida who has not played in ages mind you, comes into this game focused and gets it done. For as good as Arkansas is, this Florida team is a top 40 offense and Arkansas can be suspect to some bad shooting performances. Remember, Arkansas did lose to LSU by 16 and that win over Missouri is not that impressive now considering Missouri is vulnerable without Tillman in the lineup. It's a let down spot here for Arkansas too and therefore we ride Florida today.

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The easy choice here is to go with Liverpool coming in off three straight losses and sitting 13 point back of Manchester City in the EPL. However, they will likely be without as many as ten players for Tuesday's first-leg with James Milner having picked up an injury against Leicester. We doubt they make a change at keeper as Becker even though he's made more mistakes in their last three losses than all of last season. Liverpool still have Mane, Salah, and Firmino up front, but without a strong midfielder like Milner, they could find it difficult to get service to their attack. Add in a clash with Everton on deck and this depleted Liverpool side will have trouble on the road. For Leipzig, they are on a four match winning streak after beating Augsburg 2-1 over the weekend. During this run they have outscored their opponents 10-1 since losing at Mainz in January. This match is being played in Budapest, but we still feel Leipzig have the edge. They made it through a very difficult group this season and will have a strong side to pull from for this first leg.

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The Oilers have been on a roll as of late and appear to be playing better defensively backed by some good goal tending.  It has taken them some time as they were up and down out of the gates to start the season but winners of 3 in a row now, things appear to be moving in the right direction in Edmonton.  They have won 3 in a row and 6 of their last 7.  The Jets tend to play poorly as a road dog as they are just 2-7 in their last 9 games as a road underdog, while their offense is hit or miss.  Lets also not forget the last time these teams played the Oilers held a lead into the 3rd period only to allow 4 goals to the Jets and lost the game.  I don't think the Oilers have forgotten and I like them at home here to get the job done as they have been playing better hockey as of late with a more consistent offense.  The Oilers are also the more rested team here as they last played on Thursday so they will be fresh.  Favorite with a line move of 10-cents or more (34-14, 71%).  Oilers are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.

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I will roll with the Hawks because they need this win in the worst way. They have lost 3 straight and they have collapsed late in ballgames of late. The collapse against the Mavericks late on a last second shot with Galiniari as he missed, maybe a missed foul on Trae Young, then Galiniari gets reduced minutes and shot the ball much better last game against the Pacers but still fell short. This team got outscored 41-26 in the 4th quarter in that game and I think the Hawks are growing before our eyes a little bit here. This is a must win for the Hawks in a variety of ways. Hawks already lost to this Knicks team earlier this year despite being up by double-digits in that game as well. This team still features a lot of competence and though the Knicks came back to beat the Rockets without Mitchell Robinson who is injured and out for some time, I think the sense of urgency is much greater here with the Hawks. Let's roll with Atlanta here to finally bounce-back and pick up an important win today to avoid losing their 4th straight. I know Coach Tibs makes the Knicks play hard, but today is the Hawks today.

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Sometimes you have to take the ugly duckling and I think this is a great spot for the Red Wings who begin a 11 day stretch at home.  The Red Wings lost earlier in the season both games to the Hawks but they had several key players out due to Covid protocol.  The Wings have been much more competitive lately playing a lot of close games, while splitting a series with the Predators and Panthers.  Over 70% of the public is all over the Hawks driving the line to a point where I think its an over reaction, giving value here on the home dog who has some revenge.  Add on the fact the Hawks are not a great road team.  It might not be pretty but I like the Wings here to edge out a close one at home.  Blackhawks are 6-18 in their last 24 road games.

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Love the Leafs here in this spot.  Leafs are coming off a home loss to the Canadiens and this is a perfect spot to bounce back against one of the leagues worst teams.  Leafs have the 4th ranked offense in the league averaging 3.53 goals per game, and come off a game where they scored just 1 goal.  Now they get to face one of the leagues worst defenses.  Leafs have the #6 ranked defense, and #3 power play.  I think this is a big let down for the Senators as they come off a big road win defeating Winnipeg 2-1.  They will not hold the Leafs to one goal here tonight.  I expect the Leafs to bounce back offensively and get the job done easily covering the puck line.  Maple Leafs are 7-2 in their last 9 games as a favorite.  Big favorites -200 or more are 19-5 (79%) and favorites off a loss vs an opponent off a win are 37-14 (73%).

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In Leonard Hamilton we trust. You have a Virginia Coach in Bennett who has a 9-9 record against FSU and I think the difference here is that Florida State played like absolute garbage against Wake Forrest and that should motivate them to play better here. Don't get me wrong, Virginia is a fantastic team but they started off way to fast against UNC last game and they will run into a difficult FSU team here. I think the home court makes a difference here and remember, for as good as Virginia is, Bennett has lost to Hamilton 9 times because of the size and athleticism of FSU. I think the difference here is the mentality from the last contest for these two teams and I think FSU gets it done with a little revenge and relatively poor play from their last game.

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I'm backing the 16th place Arminia Bielefeld to make Bayern’s return to league play difficult this afternoon. The host return from Qatar after winning both of their Club World Cup matches without conceding a goal and lifting their sixth trophy. The Bundesliga leaders are now on a seven match winning streak since losing on penalties to Holstein Kiel in the DFB Pokal in mid-January, the first time Bayern have lost back to back matches since last 2019. At the Club World Cup Bayern be Egypt’s Al Ahly 2-0 and Mexico’s Tigres 1-0 to extend their winning streak. Bayern’s last League win was a 1-0 win at Hertha that followed a 4-1 thrashing of Hoffenheim at home. Do not get me wrong, I do not expect Arminia to beat Bayern this afternoon, add jet lag, Thomas Muller and three others out and this could be the right spot for Arminia to make Bayern sweat. The visitors have been off since February 1 after last week’s match was called off, they have lost their last two that snapped a three match unbeaten run though most of their losses this season have been close affairs. Their return to the Bundesliga has been shaky and they did loss to Bayern 4-1 at home. But with Bayern having to travel to Frankfurt in a few days for their weekend match on Saturday and they are likely to rest some players.

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Today we roll with the Avalanche as small road favorites. The Avalanche have not played in a while due to Covid protocols but this is a very deep and talented team and are favored for a reason on the road against a very good Vegas team at home. The Avalanche will get a huge boost back in their lineup as Mckinnon is set to return. I think the Avalanche will be full of energy and eager to face an elite team like Vegas. On the flip side you have a Vegas team that is playing the second game of a back to back which will be tough facing a well rested team like the Avs. Yes Vegas has been on a roll but let's look at who they have played Sharks, Ducks, Kings, Coyotes. The one elite team they faced they lost to the Blues. They have not had a tough test in quite some time. Many have picked the Avs to win it all this year so with a fresh and energetic lineup, I will take them with the short price to grab a big win. Avalanche are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Avalanche are 17-7 in their last 24 road games.

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After AC Milan loss on Saturday, Inter have a lot to play for in this match as they sit two points back of the leaders. However, they are coming off an emotional scoreless draw at Juventus that saw them out of the Coppa Italia. Add in what will be a hotly contested Milan derby next week and the pressure and emotions of what lay ahead could be too much for this side who are back in the conversation in Italy for the first time in years. Inter did loss their last home match, 2-1 to Juve in the Coppa Italia which snapped a six match winning streak and a eight match unbeaten run. Lazio have won their last two matches and enter Sunday's match in sixth place on 40 points, just seven points back of Inter. Lazio has been somewhat hot and cold away from home this season, winning their last away match 3-1 at seventh place Atalanta. They are also 2-2-1 in their last five away from home, but only have three losses away in their last 15. These two drew 1-1 at Lazio in October for Lazio's second win in a row over Inter, though the host won the last match in Milan 1-0 last season which snapped a two match winning run for Lazio at Inter.

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Barber has been off for over a year and I just do not believe he will be up to the task tonight against Alexa Grasso. Barber is still young at only 22 years of age and I just wonder how in shape she will be for this fight having to rehab a knee injury. Grasso has fought some of the best in the industry and thus her 4-3 record is a little misleading. She will be in control of this fight and should win a unanimous decision. Getting Grasso at even money is too good to pass up.

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Today we are rolling with the Lightning as road favorites to get the job done. I think this is a great bounce back spot for the Lightning who come off a 5-2 loss in their last game against the Panthers. The Panthers are just 1 point back of the Lightning for the division lead, so expect the defending champs to be ready for this one. The Lightning rank #2 in the NHL in goals for averaging 3.67 goals per game, so the fact they were held to just two goals was a bit surprising and I do not expect that to happen again. Defensively the Lightning have been the #1 team in goals allowed averaging just 2.08 goals per game allowed. They were terrible defensively last game allowing 5 goals which I simply do not think that will happen here. Florida has been playing well out of the gates this season but beating the defending champs 2 games in a row is not an easy task. I expect a bounce back here from the Lightning and get the job done. Favorites off a loss this season are 51-17 (75%) those numbers are hard to ignore. Take the Lightning. Lightning are 9-2 in the last 11 meetings.

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Love the over in this game as you have a Vegas team that ranks #2 in offense scoring an average of 3.7 goals per game, that was just shut out 1-0. I expect a big bounce back from the Knights offensively here. On the flip side you have a Sharks team coming off a 6-2 loss so you know they will get up for this game against their rival and coming off a loss which saw them score just two goals. The Sharks simply do not have the defense or the goaltending to shut this Vegas team down, especially with them coming off being shut out. The Sharks rank 28th in the NHL allowing an average of 3.5 goals per game. Take the over as I expect a high scoring game. Over is 8-3 in Sharks last 11 games as an underdog. Over is 10-4 in Sharks last 14 overall.

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What a beautiful public fade this is. You have a Utah Jazz team that just beat the best team in the league in the Milwaukee Bucks. You'd have to think after Giannis said they were the best team in the West that this team has a monumental let down at the hands of the Miami Heat who are getting healthy for the right time. Remember, this is a Heat team that has won 4 in a row, this is a team that will get back Herro in this game and they will be absolutely stoked coming into this game as this is a great opportunity to show their salt here against an elite team in the West. Frankly, I don't see how much the Jazz will get up for this game after beating the Bucks. Plus, what better way to signal that the Heat are back than Miami going into Utah and winning Outright on the road. I think the line makes sense here and we like Miami to be a great underdog at Utah this evening.

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