Topic: FADE ME! - (46W - 33L) (+24.05 UNITS) FREE Daily Betting Tips - Startup Thread - page 23. (Read 12690 times)

The 6-3 Suns stay on the road from the second night in a row making the short trip to Indy coming off a very low scoring overtime loss to Detroit. The visitors are now 1-2 in their last two and are one of the lowest scoring sides in the Western Conference but also have the lowest points against in the NBA at 103.2. What the Suns lack in offense, they certainly make up for in defense. The Suns have only given up 110 or more in two games this season with both coming in their last two. So expect a somewhat tired Suns team to get back to their defensive foundation, which we have seen means they will also be slow on offense. The Pacers come in off back to back wins and are 6-2 on the season and 4-2 at home. They did well coming off their overtime win at New Orleans (118-116) with a 114-107 home win over Houston. The Pacers will push this Suns defense tonight, averaging over 114 ppg this matchup starts a string of matchups between the Suns and some of the better offenses in the league. The Pacers have done well on defense so far this season, giving up just 108 ppg, so this should come down to ball possession and fouls. We expect defense to win out tonight as these two struggle to break 100 points each.

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We like for AC Milan to bounce back in a big way today after having their 12-match unbeaten run overall and their 27-match Serie A unbeaten run snapped with a 3-1 loss at home midweek to rivals Juventus. AC Milan now have a one point lead over local rivals Inter Milan. At home, Milan are not 3-1-1 in their last five. They host Torino who are in 17th place on just 12 points, 25 points back of the host and coming off a 1-1 draw at ninth place Hellas Verona. Torino are 1-1-3 in their last five matches, but have just one win in their last eight matches. On the road, they did win their last match, 3-0 over 18th place Parma which snapped a four match road winless run. Milan have won the last two at home over Torino and though the visitors have seemed to turn a corner, there is still a huge gap between these two sides. Milan is not a side has back to back poor results. Milan's last two Serie A losses came in February and March 2020 with a 4-2 loss at Inter Milan where they bounced back with a 1-0 home win over Torino and a 2-1 home loss to Genoa which they followed with a 4-1 win at Lecce.

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I really like the Bucks in this spot. Milwaukee has been at home for three games in a row, and they still have another home game tomorrow night. The Bucks have looked good in their three straight home games winning by 30, 10, and 15 points respectively. Now, the talent level of their opponents hasn't been very good, but to be honest Utah hasn't looked good either. The Jazz have some road losses that just have people scratching their heads, most notably losing to Brooklyn by 34 and the Knicks by 12. These are good comparisons as Milwaukee is just as good or better than both of these teams. This will be Utah's fourth straight road game and fourth road game in six days. Utah just isn't getting enough out of Donovan Mitchell in their losses, and in a game like this he is going to press in order to keep up with the offensive prowess of the Bucks. Utah is just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall and 4-14-2 ATS in their last 20 games following a straight up loss. Milwaukee on the other hand is 4-1 ATS in their last five home games versus a team with a winning road record. Lay the points in this one.

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The Nets are without Kevin Durant and may be without weirdo Kyrie Irving yet again. But I still think that they are fine. In fact, I like them more in this game without Irving. Now they are just the team that they were the past two years, led by buys like Caris LeVert and Joe Harris. Nothing wrong with that. They have big men to match up with Memphis' most dangerous player - remember that they are still without Ja. Morant - and the Nets have the better backcourt. Brooklyn has beaten the Jazz and 76ers this week without their two 'stars' and I think that they can keep rolling. Brooklyn has revenge for a loss to the Grizz on Dec. 30. I don't see it happening again.

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I expect the Detroit Pistons to get back Josh Jackson for tonight's game. Jackson has been out the past couple of games for Detroit with ankle injury and he should be pumped to go up against the team that drafted him 4th overall in the 2017 draft. Jackson is arguably the top Pistons defender and in the 5 full games he's played in this year the Pistons went below the posted total in 4 of them (during regulation time play). Even if Jackson doesn't go this still a solid play as Detroit head coach Dwane Casey spoke yesterday about how he wants his team to get back to the style and type of team they want to be, a defense first squad. There's also some added value here considering the Pistons have played in three straight games with 240+ points scored but keep in mind those came against two of the best teams in the league (Boston and Milwaukee 2x).

The Phoenix Suns come in with a surprising 6-2 start to the season. The biggest reason for their early season success lies in the fact they have allowed the fewest points per game of any team in the league currently at just 102.4 PPG which would also rank as the best we've seen from any team in the NBA the previous two seasons. Phoenix picked up Chris Paul in the off-season and with Paul running their offense the Suns play the slowest pace of any team in the NBA. They are also seeing the emergence of 2018 #1 draft pick DeAndre Ayton who's healthy this year and has elevated his game manning the middle. The Suns have spoke openly about wanting to be the best defensive team in the league this year and I think they will hold this Detroit offense down in this one.

Play 'under' the total in this game.

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We like the visitors Crystal Palace in this FA Cup clash on Friday. Palace snapped a five-match winless run with a 2-0 home win over Sheffield United last week. This win moved Palace up to 14th place, level on points with Friday's host, but back one goal on goal difference. Palace has some key results this season with a 1-1 home draw against third place Leicester City and a 4-1 win over Leeds United. Palace has seen some success in the FA Cup in the last five years, winning six of their last nine matches. For Wolves, they come off a 3-3 draw at Brighton which extended their winless run to four matches since beating Chelsea at home 2-1. They are 2-1-2 in their last five at home including a 2-0 win over Palace in October. Wolves have won the last two meetings at home over Palace, not 2-0 wins. Both teams are entering the FA Cup in this round, but we like the visitors wanting to bounce back from their earlier loss to Wolves.

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The Spurs got back on track after putting together a couple weeks of awful basketball. They took care of the Clippers on Tuesday night to snap a four-game losing streak so tonight will give them a chance to get both Staple Center occupants. This San Antonio team is not the same as it has been in the past two decades, but they still have Coach Pop and that is sometimes enough for them. LA is still the class of the West, but they will be in and out of interest this year and after they got a stiff taste from Memphis last time out they may be inclined to rest a bit. Take the points but the Spurs are firmly in the ML convo this evening.

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This Murray State basketball program along with Belmont has been the top program in the Ohio Valley Conference the past couple of seasons. They are coming off a strong 15-3 record last year in league play and have won a share of or they were outright regular season champions each of the past three years coming into this season. They have dropped three straight conference contests going into tonight and are in what feels like a must win spot here.

Eastern Illinois is 4-5 on the year overall. They have shot a very strong 37.6% from three point range this season but that won't be easy to do here in this game as Murray State has been one of the best three point defenses in all of CBB the last four years allowing just 30% from behind the arc during that and just 30% this year as well.

Take Murray State minus the points for first half.

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We are starting the golf season this week with a solid play on Rahm to get the better of Xander. I believe there is solid value on Rahm to come out in Round 1 and put up a great score and beat Xander. Don't let the fact that Rahm has recently switched Club makes, as he's already shot a 59 with the new weapons. Rahm has finished in the top 10 in this tournament three times and we expect a big week here and it stars in Round 1!

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We are on the Over in this second round matchup in Spain's Copa del Rey. You have a third division side (Segunda B) Yeclano who sit in last place in their group having picked up just three points all season from just three draws. This side has been off since December 16th when they beat Rayo Majadahonda 2-1 in the first round, needing extra time to secure victory. This was the first match they scored more than 1 goal since drawing at home 2-2 against Merida in March 2020. They now face a Valencia side who is struggling in Spain's top division. Valencia sit in 17th place and are currently on a four-match winless run. Their last win came in the Copa del Rey beating Terrassa 4-2 in extra time. Since that win, Valencia have drawn two and lost two. This is a must win for Valencia's confidence. They play a side they are more talented then, faster and stronger, they play a side with nothing to loss and will likely come out swinging, but also leave themselves open to a better side.

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The Bulls are coming in on a back-to-back and they had a big win over Portland on the road where they were down big but came back to win. They expended a lot of energy in that game, and we don't think they will have a lot left in the tank to be competitive here tonight. The Kings started off the season with a 3-1 record but have lost three straight. The last game was against the Warriors, where they were embarrassed in a blowout loss. This seems like a get right game for them against a fatigued opponent, and we think there's a great chance for a double-digit win by the home team tonight.

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Toronto is not good. This team is not at all the same caliber as what we’ve seen the past two years and I think that the books and the public are both slow to react to it. Conversely, Phoenix has been one of the hottest and best teams in the NBA since their undefeated run in The Bubble. That has absolutely carried over into this season and they are off to a solid 5-2 start. The Suns are coming off a rare loss and I think they will bounce back after falling to the Clippers. Phoenix already has wins at Utah and Denver and they blew out New Orleans – a team that has already beaten Toronto twice – at home. Toronto’s only win this year is over the Knicks. Not great. I don’t see them gearing up and getting a road win here.

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I think that this one will be a blowout. VCU has won six straight games and they are on an excellent 7-1 ATS run. They are 8-2 ATS on the season and this team has been undervalued. They blew out St. Joseph's 80-64 in their last game and should dominate again here. George Mason has lost two of its last three games and they are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games. This team has struggled all season long and has been underachieving. George Mason pulled an upset in their last meeting with VCU back in February as a 14-poitn favorite. Before that VCU had won three straight blowouts over the Patriots and they are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games in this series. VCU is much better on offense and on defense and I think that they will take care of business here against an overmatched George Mason team that won't have a home court advantage.

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This afternoon on ESPN 2 should be a fun match at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza as AC Milan welcomes Juventus. Like home pitch to hold today in a very tight match but I see AC Milan hitting the back of the net late and don't forget Juventus has been dealing with players out due to COVID. Milan has been on a run for the ages and I know on the other side you have Ronaldo but I was so impressed with AC Milan winning on the road against Benevento 2-0 and again I see Milan hitting the back of the net late to break the tie and win 2-1.

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Kansas was thoroughly embarrassed over the weekend, losing 84-59 to Texas. It was a little to do with the Longhorns and a lot to do with the focus of the Jayhawks. Kansas ranks 28th in adjusted offensive efficiency but made just 3 of 23 3-pointers and 17 of 45 2-pointers. They'll face a TCU team that ranks a middle-of-the-pack, 160th in 2-point defense so we expect a refocused and ticked-off KU squad to find success. TCU has played only three of their 11 games against teams ranked in the top-75 and they're 1-2, beating Oklahoma State by a point, but losing to Oklahoma & Providence. Kansas is obviously a big step-up in competition and this could be a case of bad timing for the Horned Frogs, who're 1-5 ATS in their last six at home. KU enters on a 10-1 ATS run on the road against teams playing better than .600 SU basketball at home and they're a perfect 9-0, 100% off a SU loss by 20 or more points, winning by an average score of 79-63. I'm backing Kansas on Tuesday.

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I still think that Missouri is one of the best teams in the SEC and that they are just a tick or two behind Tennessee. They rebounded from a blowout loss to the Vols by hammering Arkansas on the road. I think that they will do the same here against Mississppi State. The Bulldogs are in a full-blown rebuilding season and they are not nearly as good as they have been in years past. They have lost to every Top 100 opponent they have faced this year, save a weak Georgia squad, and Miss State's wins have come against dregs. The Bulldogs are in a letdown spot after a heartbreaking double-OT loss to Kentucky. Now they are facing a much better opponent and I don't expect them to play nearly as well. This is a really young Bulldogs team and I think the letdown is going to hit them hard. Missouri's experience and skill will be too much in this one and it is a clear mismatch.

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Alabama is in a bit of a letdown spot here after their stunning win over Tennessee. However, I think they are going to keep things rolling. These guys are starting to put it together and they are starting to build some chemistry. That win over the Vols is a huge confidence builder and I think that they can keep it rolling. Florida has only played twice in the last three weeks and they are still without their best player, Keyontae Johnson. Florida just hasn't shown me enough for me to trust them here.

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This is the first of two semifinal matches in the EFL Cup. Tottenham host Championship side Brentford on Tuesday having beaten Stoke City in the last round 3-1 on the road. That win snapped Tottenham's three-match winless run which included back to back losses. The host are now on a three-match unbeaten run and are coming off a 3-0 home win over Leeds. This win has Tottenham up to fourth place in the League. They now must face a hungry Brentford side that is also in fourth in the Championship, but also had the weekend off. The visitors are riding a 16-match unbeaten run that includes four streak wins. They knocked off Premier League side Newcastle at home 1-0 in the last round to reach the semifinal. Brentford have also knocked of third place Bournemouth and fifth place Reading over this stretch. Tottenham can be a very one and off team, they slip up when they should be dominate and they are now facing a very talented Brentford side that is in the mix for promotion. This will be the first meeting between these two sides.

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These two teams have the same record, but they are in different spots as far as optimism. The Warriors are trying to figure out who they are and after the Steph blow up last night, they think they can compete for a playoff spot. This is not a great thing for Golden State as they appear to need more time to get their new guys (Oubre and Wiggins) acclimated to playing with the all-world guard. The Kings are in the mix for a legit 6-7-8 spot in the West. They are playing as a team and should be able to stay relevant this season for the first time in forever. Take Sactown to get the win and cover in this one.

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I'll play the Pacers on the bounce back. They let one get away in their loss to the Knicks but I think they will rebound here. I don't know how much I trust the Pelicans laying points. And the books obviously feel the same way because they are such a small favorite. New Orleans has won two in a row but they really have had a pretty easy schedule to this point, getting blown out by the only two playoff-caliber teams they've faced (Miami and Phoenix). The Pacers are solid in the underdog role and I like them to pull off the upset here.

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