Topic: FADE ME! - (46W - 33L) (+24.05 UNITS) FREE Daily Betting Tips - Startup Thread - page 45. (Read 12658 times)

I love the value on the Mariners here. I don't think that the Angels should be this big of a favorite over any team in the American League. The Angels have been one of the most overrated teams in baseball and they have been one of the worst teams to bet on in the Majors. The Angels are just 2-7 in their last nine games and they are 3-11 in their last 14 games. Los Angeles has lost four straight series. Seattle has won six of its past eight games and they have won three straight series. The Mariners offense has been strong over the last week, scoring 44 runs in their last six games while going 5-1. I think that they can keep that going against a struggling Angels pitching staff that has given up 66 runs over their last 10 games. The Angels are not locked into a starter yet. They could go with Dylan Bundy. Right now the listed starter is Andrew Heaney. I like the bet either way. I would rather Seattle face Heaney. Bundy has been very good this season and has just a 2.58 ERA. I don't think he will continue at that rate. He had a 4.79 ERA last year and a 5.45 ERA in 2018 and Bundy has allowed four runs in each of his last two starts while taking two losses. Heaney has been struggling. He has a 5.52 ERA on the season and has given up 14 runs in his last three starts in just 14 innings while taking three straight losses. Seattle is going with Nick Margevicius and he has been solid over his last three starts. He had a 3.60 ERA and has given up just 15 hits and walks combined in his last three starts. Los Angeles is just 9-20 in their last 29 series openers and 3-9 after an off day. The Angels are 16-35 in their last 51 divisional games. All of the value is on the underdog in this one. And they have the potential to cash this ticket even if they lose the game by one run. Take Seattle here.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter

The Kansas City Royals are traveling to Guaranteed Rate Field to battle the red hot White Sox in a weekend series. The White Sox have won 9 out 10 coming into this division weekend series and the Sox swept the Pirates at home beating in two games and outscoring them 14-3. Kansas City has dropped 4 out 5 and I know Danny Duffy is on the mound for the Royals but can he control the hot bats of the White Sox. The Royals have dropped 7 out 10 on the South Side of Chicago and the White Sox are 7-0 as a home favorite. Let's also throw in that the White Sox are a perfect 8-0 against a left-handed starter.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter

As per our selection on Justin Thomas to beat Dustin Johnson in this second-round matchup, Thomas has been the best player on Tour over the last little while and while he had a down round in Round 1 (+3) I expect him to bounce back and make the shots he normally makes that simply didn't drop last round. I ran the models and I believe Thomas should be favored in this matchup and as such gives us a ton of value. DJ was on fire at last week's event but came out firing a +1 (71). His game looked a little off and as is to be expected after shooting -30 last week. Thomas makes a move up the leaderboard today and gets the better of DJ.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter

The line came in a little higher than what I had hoped but I will not get off the game we had circled all week. I have been using Tyler Wilson for most of my plays of late and today is no different. He has pitched better than his 8-6 record would indicate, and he is an innings eater for the Twins. He has started 18 games this season and thrown at least 5 innings in 17 of those starts. He pitched against KT last month and threw 6 innings and gave up just 3 hits and 1 earned run. His opponent has pitched well of late but he had been living on the edge and it will bite him tonight. He usually only goes 5 innings and that will likely not be good enough tonight.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter

Hey there, you can just follow my picks on a daily basis and you should good to go. As per usual, you need to do your own research. I always provide the rationale of my picks and if you agree with me, just bet on it. And if not, you can always fade it. 

hi..how to follow you, introduce me to a new member in this forum

The New York Islanders will play the Philadelphia flyers today in their 3rd game of the series. Both teams have gotten a win over the first two games with the previous one coming in overtime last night. The Flyers tied the series up with a goal from Phillippe Myers 2:40 into overtime. Similar to the Tampa Bay game last night, I think momentum follows the Flyers tonight after that win. Philadelphia has been superb over their first 11 games of the playoffs and while this series may go 7 games, I think Philadelphia gets the win tonight. In game 1 of this contest the Islanders had 22 blocked shots compared to the 10 from Philadelphia. Game 2 was a different story where the Flyers had 17 block shots to New York's 13. I think the Flyers found out how they can beat this Islander team. Hart is still playing at a high level where he is 7-3 in the playoffs and holds a 1.97 GAA. The club overall is averaging only 2.09 GA in the 11 playoff games. Mind you, this was with 3 of those games going 4 goals or more. Look, the Flyers have the better offense and are just as good on defense as the Islanders. The club is better on the penalty kill and power play. Look for the momentum to carry over from last nights overtime game. Take the Flyers in game 3!

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter

As per our selection on Rory to take care of Xander in the opening round, this week feels like a Rory week to me as he's been coasting along much of the last month not really making any noise. Now people have forgotten about him because of what DJ and Bryson and Thomas and Morikawa have been doing over the last little while and we believe he's getting tremendous value both in the outright market and the H2H matchup here vs Xander. Rory has the game needed to play well at Olympia Fields and our models suggest Rory should win this matchup by two strokes given his all-around consistency, more so than Xander is capable of. Take Rory.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter

I like LAFC here, they are the most talented side in MLS, hands down, but they have run into some poor form. They are coming off back to back loses, including a 2-0 loss to local rivals LA Galaxy. LAFC were knocked out of the MLS is Back tournament on penalties by Orlando after regular time ended 1-1. Prior to these two losses, LAFC were unbeaten in their previous seven and are 7-3-4 in their last 15 matches. LAFC travel east to Salt Lake City to face a Real side that is coming off a huge 4-1 win over Colorado. This win snapped a three match winless run for Real where they lost back to back matches, 2-0 to Sporting KC and 5-2 to San Jose. The visitors have won three in a row including back to back at Real outscoring their opponents 7-1. Real have only beaten LAFC once in six meetings, a 3-2 win at LAFC in November 2018. I expect Real to have a letdown after a huge win while LAFC is primed for a bounce back.


Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter

The Cubs and Tigers both got off to great starts to their seasons, but have had their struggles recently. Fortunately for the Cubs, they are still in first place in their division while Detroit is in fourth. Jon Lester will be on the mound for Chicago tonight and he has not been very good in his past couple of starts, allowing 13 earned runs and 6 home runs. However, those games were at Wrigley Field where the wind can bring any pitcher to their knees. Lester has made two starts on the road this year and he has been outstanding, winning both contests allowing 1 earned run on 3 hits over 11 innings. Michael Fulmer will take the ball for Detroit and it has been a rough go for him as he is still working his way back from Tommy John surgery last season. Fulmer has made four starts while being on a 3-inning limit, and has allowed 12 earned runs and 6 home runs across 11.1 innings. These teams have split the first two games of this series scoring 10 runs apiece and I think the Cubs are going to win this game and take the series. Look for a bounce back from Lester and look for Fulmer's struggles to continue.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter

To be successful at NBA handicapping in 2020, in the Bubble, you have to get into the heads of the players and teams. That is why we like the underdog tonight. The Magic have sacrificed a lot to play in the Bubble. Their time is likely over tonight. But this team didn't have any title aspirations. They came to get some experience and build towards next season. So this team isn't going to be low on morale today or defeated mentally. Quite the opposite, we think they will give full effort in what is likely their last game. And they will be playing against the biggest spread in the series. The Bucks have shown a lack of focus at times in the Bubble. They were part of one of the biggest upsets in NBA history when they were beaten by Brooklyn as an 18-point favorite. They lost the first game of this series. That Game 1 loss was a wakeup call, and they have played well since. But Orlando has been in position to cover these big spreads in almost every game they lost. There's a good chance the Bucks are already checked out here and looking towards Round 2. We think there's a great chance this dog keeps the game within double digits.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

#BlackLivesMatter

Arizona starting pitcher Alex Young is the exact kind of pitcher that I am like to back this time of year as the soon to be 27 year-old left-hander has lots of upside and is flying under the radar. Young looks to be much improved over last season as his velocity has jumped nearly a full 2 miles per hour on his fastball from 2019. Young was a rookie last season and in his first two years in MLB he's posted a solid 3.73 ERA placing him in the top 25% of all pitchers with 100+ innings pitched the last two seasons.

At first glance the Colorado Rockies look to be an average offensive team but that's not actually the case as their offensive stats are once again very misleading from playing half their games at their extremely hitter friendly home ball park. In fact the Rockies are dead last in offensive wRC+ on the road this year while hitting just .207 away from Coors Field. This is nothing new either as the Rockies ranked dead last in 2019 on the road with a .230 team batting average and were 2nd to last in MLB in 2018. Over the last three years Colorado ranks dead last in team batting average and also on base percentage. Making things worse for the Rockies in this one is they could be without their best hitter as Charlie Blackmon is injured and questionable for tonight's game after missing last night's contest. His loss would be a huge blow considering Blackmon has a batting average this year against left-handers of over .600.

Take Arizona in this game.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

This series is tied now after an incredible performance from Dallas in Game 4. But if you look at the Clippers results in The Bubble, they have suffered four losses since the restart, and every time they came back and played to their capabilities, covering in all those games. All but one win came by double digits. In Game 4 Dallas saw one of the best performances in playoff history by Luka Doncic. Not only was he going off, but some of the role players had excellent games as well. But even with the Mavs playing out of their minds, they still needed OT and an amazing buzzer-beater just to win the game on a night the Clippers just didn't play well for most of the game. As recent history has show, LA knows how to follow up a lousy performance with a great one. Paul George has been the blame for a lot of the Clippers problems with his shooting slump. He will get out of this slump before too long. And it will probably be tonight. We expect to see an incredibly focused Clippers group tonight, and we think they will play to their potential. It's doubtful that Doncic will have anywhere near the game he had last time out, and the role players are due for regression.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

Kyle Hart is not a Major League-caliber pitcher. Frankly, I have no idea why the Red Sox are trotting him out there. The guy is almost 28 years old and this season was his first ever stint in the Majors. He's a former 19th round draft pick that had never been higher than Double-A prior to this season. Hart's debut was comical, as he allowed seven runs in two innings. He was only slightly better in his next start. He loaded the bases with no outs in the top of the first and somehow escaped only allowing two runs. He didn't make it out of the fourth inning. To this point Hart has a 11.12 ERA with just nine strikeouts to seven walks. He's only pitched five innings and he's already given up nine runs, nine hits and seven walks! Toronto has been very good against left-handed pitching, winning four of their last five starts against lefties. The Jays just beat up a very good lefty, Blake Snell, yesterday and they are 7-2 in their last nine games overall. This is a terrible Boston team. They are 8-20 in their last 28 games overall and are just 3-10 on the road. I think they are going to struggle against Chase Anderson, who has been sharp, and I like Toronto to keep the momentum going.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

Denver in an all-out War today to save their season and no stone will be unturned. Look at the averages last 5 games. Combined these two, despite Denver scoring 87 in one game, average 236 ppg. Last 5 games they allow 236 ppg. The total at 220.5 is WEAK in my opinion. I cashed Over the last game and I think the line adjustment is not enough. In an elimination game there will be shots traded. Denver is helpless on defense, it is dumbfounding but helpless, and they simply are playing NO defense and Utah has scorers all over the place. Denver has scorers as well. Expect Denver to pull out all the stops and be gunning all day and for Utah to trade punches. Denver cannot stop them on defense so the plan is to trade punches for a win here to save this series, if anyone with a brain is coaching this would be the approach. Utah 8-2 with Overs last 10 games, Denver 21-8 on Overs last 29 games.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

Pachuca gets this game at home and come into this game winners of 2 out 3 and their last 4 league games all 4 of them have gone 'Under'. Pachuca last 5 league games they have only given up a total of 3 goals. Mazatlan has dropped back-to-back road games games and ther last two league games both of them have gone 'Under'. With both sides being very picky on given up goals this young season this pitch should be a low scoring game and I see home field holing and Pachuca wins 1-0.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

Before the series we thought the Blazers might make more noise in this series. But the Game 1 loss was a wakeup call for the Lakers, and we think they have all the momentum here in this series. The Bubble is an interesting place. In a normal NBA playoff series, the change in venue means a lot and can get the underdog back into the series. But there is no homecoming for the Blazers, and they are in a real tough spot here now. They are on the ropes. They started the playoffs early with the seeding games and then the play in game, and this team just looks tired and defeated. With no home-court to go back to, we think morale is low. The Lakers losing the first game was the best thing for them. That made them focus, and now we think they want to end this series ASAP as some of the other Western Conference teams are now in a dogfight in their series. We rarely bet on the Lakers as they are normally shaded by the oddsmakers and there is rarely value. But we think this line is more than fair tonight. We think this one has a great chance to be a double-digit win for the Lakers.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

As per this selection, we roll with the Over here between these two teams. For starters, note that the Twins will likely not have Clippard here late in the innings so their bullpen could be a bit suspect here. Though everyone wants to think it's a low scoring game, we think it will be the opposite. Maeda pitched well against the Indians last time, holding them to just 1 hit in 6 innings, but it is hard to imagine the Indians don't get to him this time around. Maeda for as good as he is can have a let down, such as giving up 3 runs in 6 innings to the lowly Pirates a few starts ago. He comes off 12 strikeouts in his last game against the Brewers and had a no hitter late, but I suspect the Indians will likely to get to him early and often today. Plus, you have a pitcher in Civale who pitched a complete game against Pittsburgh but how will he do against a potent offense like Minnesota. Remember, before dominating Pittsburgh, he had given up 8 runs in 19 innings and look for this game to surprisingly go over today.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

As per this selection we roll with the Under here as if you just wait on this line, you will likely get a better line as the public will keep taking it higher but we like the Under here. A couple things here, for starters, the Pacers were a bit frustrated that the Heat shot 52 free throws in their last game and Jimmy Butler shot 20 of them himself where most of his points came from. You have a Pacers team that only shot 28 free throws as well. Brogdon came back from injury and definitely helped his team bounce-back as he played very well but his defense was a bit off and considering he is the leader of this team in heart and soul more than the other two especially on defense, look for him to make the adjustments as this team really fights hard for a strong effort defensively tonight. Plus, you have a Pacer team that knows that Sabonis can come back for Game 6 with his Plantar Fascitis issue if they just hold off and are able to win with a couple of strong efforts here. Look for a hard fought game that likely sees this game go Under here.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

This total has shot through the roof this morning with heavy action on the 'over'. I still don't think it is high enough. Houston has been a solid 'under' play lately, going 'under' in four of six games. But most of those totals were posted at 231 or above so there's some room here. The reality is that I don't think that Houston is going to shoot as poorly as they have the last two games. The Rockets were 15-for-50 from 3-point range last time out, with Eric Gordon going 2-for-10 and James Harden 3-for-13. In Game 2 the Rockets were just 19-for-56 from deep, with Harden going 2-for-11 and Gordon 0-for-10. So these two super scorers have combined to go just 7-for-44 (16%) in their last two games.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.