For the discrepancy of odds in the French presidential election with other bookmakers such as betfair, is the odds offer in Fairlay more accurate or not? Is it because people dealing with bitcoin is smarter than the people in betfair so the odds here are more accurate?
Though it is safe to assume that people using Bitcoin are smarter than Betfair users, there is also a likely positive correlation between a Le Pen victory and the Bitcoin price which explains the lower odds on Fairlay.
Yes, I agree. Then that should affect the bitcoin price after the election. So, if Fairlay price is more accurate we should bet on Le Pen on betfair rather than laying him on Fairlay. Betting either way on Fairlay would not make any profit, but betting on betfair would.
Le Pen is a woman. And bitcoin bettors are very bullish on her. You can't even bet on her on DirectBet because they removed that option after receiving too many bets on her.
The gender is not important, what is important is our profits. I don't think it is because there are too many bets on her so that directbet remove the option. Directbet always omit some options without any reason. Also she is still the clear underdog in the outright market. Directbet can just lower the odds and hedge it in other markets to make profits. They don't have to suspend it. Surely the omission is not because of her popularity.
Well, as far as I can tell there are no bitcoin sites to bet on her other than Fairlay (there are others that have even worse odds), so it's not easy to hedge those bets (in bitcoin). DirectBet usually offers odds in the range of Betfair -10% and because Fairlay is already lower than that, I think that the omission is due to the fact that people keep betting on her and they can't hedge their bets in bitcoin when they are offering those odds. Lowering the odds is an option, but perhaps they have a policy where they only allow for a maximum amount of overround (bookmaker's profit), and can't offer "unfair" odds to increase it.
