Can I sell my position on a market before it resolves? Eg. can you day trade the shares, or do you have to wait until the day of resolution?
Also - how does market making work? You might want to add an explanation of this to your FAQ.
Topic: FAIRLAY - SPORTS BETTING for experts - highest liquidity, provably best odds - page 59. (Read 135598 times)
April 06, 2017, 10:26:19 PM
April 03, 2017, 02:37:13 AM
For the discrepancy of odds in the French presidential election with other bookmakers such as betfair, is the odds offer in Fairlay more accurate or not? Is it because people dealing with bitcoin is smarter than the people in betfair so the odds here are more accurate?
Though it is safe to assume that people using Bitcoin are smarter than Betfair users, there is also a likely positive correlation between a Le Pen victory and the Bitcoin price which explains the lower odds on Fairlay.
Yes, I agree. Then that should affect the bitcoin price after the election. So, if Fairlay price is more accurate we should bet on Le Pen on betfair rather than laying him on Fairlay. Betting either way on Fairlay would not make any profit, but betting on betfair would.
Le Pen is a woman. And bitcoin bettors are very bullish on her. You can't even bet on her on DirectBet because they removed that option after receiving too many bets on her.
The gender is not important, what is important is our profits. I don't think it is because there are too many bets on her so that directbet remove the option. Directbet always omit some options without any reason. Also she is still the clear underdog in the outright market. Directbet can just lower the odds and hedge it in other markets to make profits. They don't have to suspend it. Surely the omission is not because of her popularity.
Well, as far as I can tell there are no bitcoin sites to bet on her other than Fairlay (there are others that have even worse odds), so it's not easy to hedge those bets (in bitcoin). DirectBet usually offers odds in the range of Betfair -10% and because Fairlay is already lower than that, I think that the omission is due to the fact that people keep betting on her and they can't hedge their bets in bitcoin when they are offering those odds. Lowering the odds is an option, but perhaps they have a policy where they only allow for a maximum amount of overround (bookmaker's profit), and can't offer "unfair" odds to increase it.
April 02, 2017, 06:12:47 PM
For the discrepancy of odds in the French presidential election with other bookmakers such as betfair, is the odds offer in Fairlay more accurate or not? Is it because people dealing with bitcoin is smarter than the people in betfair so the odds here are more accurate?
Though it is safe to assume that people using Bitcoin are smarter than Betfair users, there is also a likely positive correlation between a Le Pen victory and the Bitcoin price which explains the lower odds on Fairlay.
Yes, I agree. Then that should affect the bitcoin price after the election. So, if Fairlay price is more accurate we should bet on Le Pen on betfair rather than laying him on Fairlay. Betting either way on Fairlay would not make any profit, but betting on betfair would.
Le Pen is a woman. And bitcoin bettors are very bullish on her. You can't even bet on her on DirectBet because they removed that option after receiving too many bets on her.
The gender is not important, what is important is our profits. I don't think it is because there are too many bets on her so that directbet remove the option. Directbet always omit some options without any reason. Also she is still the clear underdog in the outright market. Directbet can just lower the odds and hedge it in other markets to make profits. They don't have to suspend it. Surely the omission is not because of her popularity.
April 02, 2017, 05:56:21 PM
Unfortunately, our users are rather reluctant in betting on long term markets that aggregate important and extremely useful informations for society. To motivate betting on our https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-future-if-segwit-is-activated-as-soft-fork/ market, we will give out 2x 50mBTC. We will distribute this to the two users belonging to one matched order above 10mBTC according to certain predefined terms. The sha-256 hash of the terms is
620c10675663aa8a5857f01aa4680c69064a6461cfde510521357eaa551c6f43
We reserve the right to exclude anyone that we suspect to have manipulated this promotion.
I think the reason the betting amount is low could be people thinking that sports are much more fun than the result of what we are going to do with our block sizes and transaction fee’s. 620c10675663aa8a5857f01aa4680c69064a6461cfde510521357eaa551c6f43
We reserve the right to exclude anyone that we suspect to have manipulated this promotion.
I mean I know its important for all of us in bitcoin World but it is not as predictable as a football games result. I know give or take what Monaco-Metz will be, I have no idea what BU and core will do.
Betting on football game result is not that 'predictable'. I think it would be much wiser to bet on these bitcoin market. Football games are full of insiders and corruption which makes you lose much faster for an average bet.
April 02, 2017, 05:48:02 PM
For the discrepancy of odds in the French presidential election with other bookmakers such as betfair, is the odds offer in Fairlay more accurate or not? Is it because people dealing with bitcoin is smarter than the people in betfair so the odds here are more accurate?
Though it is safe to assume that people using Bitcoin are smarter than Betfair users, there is also a likely positive correlation between a Le Pen victory and the Bitcoin price which explains the lower odds on Fairlay.
Yes, I agree. Then that should affect the bitcoin price after the election. So, if Fairlay price is more accurate we should bet on Le Pen on betfair rather than laying him on Fairlay. Betting either way on Fairlay would not make any profit, but betting on betfair would.
Le Pen is a woman. And bitcoin bettors are very bullish on her. You can't even bet on her on DirectBet because they removed that option after receiving too many bets on her.
April 02, 2017, 04:39:19 PM
For the discrepancy of odds in the French presidential election with other bookmakers such as betfair, is the odds offer in Fairlay more accurate or not? Is it because people dealing with bitcoin is smarter than the people in betfair so the odds here are more accurate?
Though it is safe to assume that people using Bitcoin are smarter than Betfair users, there is also a likely positive correlation between a Le Pen victory and the Bitcoin price which explains the lower odds on Fairlay.
Yes, I agree. Then that should affect the bitcoin price after the election. So, if Fairlay price is more accurate we should bet on Le Pen on betfair rather than laying him on Fairlay. Betting either way on Fairlay would not make any profit, but betting on betfair would.
April 02, 2017, 04:26:27 PM
For the discrepancy of odds in the French presidential election with other bookmakers such as betfair, is the odds offer in Fairlay more accurate or not? Is it because people dealing with bitcoin is smarter than the people in betfair so the odds here are more accurate?
There is no "accurate" odds. People on exchanges place a bet that they want (ie 1 to win @2), and than someone else can take his offer and the bet than becomes valid. People creating the markets on Fairlay might think that one person has a greater change to win than others, and they change their odds to reflect that. Some books also have a lower margin, so instead of 1.91/1.91 on a even market, there might be 1.96/1.96 on some books.
I think you don't understand my question.
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Activity: 473
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April 02, 2017, 03:31:36 PM
For the discrepancy of odds in the French presidential election with other bookmakers such as betfair, is the odds offer in Fairlay more accurate or not? Is it because people dealing with bitcoin is smarter than the people in betfair so the odds here are more accurate?
Though it is safe to assume that people using Bitcoin are smarter than Betfair users, there is also a likely positive correlation between a Le Pen victory and the Bitcoin price which explains the lower odds on Fairlay.
April 02, 2017, 03:23:08 PM
For the discrepancy of odds in the French presidential election with other bookmakers such as betfair, is the odds offer in Fairlay more accurate or not? Is it because people dealing with bitcoin is smarter than the people in betfair so the odds here are more accurate?
There is no "accurate" odds. People on exchanges place a bet that they want (ie 1 to win @2), and than someone else can take his offer and the bet than becomes valid. People creating the markets on Fairlay might think that one person has a greater change to win than others, and they change their odds to reflect that. Some books also have a lower margin, so instead of 1.91/1.91 on a even market, there might be 1.96/1.96 on some books.
April 02, 2017, 02:04:59 PM
For the discrepancy of odds in the French presidential election with other bookmakers such as betfair, is the odds offer in Fairlay more accurate or not? Is it because people dealing with bitcoin is smarter than the people in betfair so the odds here are more accurate?
April 02, 2017, 09:33:20 AM
Unfortunately, our users are rather reluctant in betting on long term markets that aggregate important and extremely useful informations for society. To motivate betting on our https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-future-if-segwit-is-activated-as-soft-fork/ market, we will give out 2x 50mBTC. We will distribute this to the two users belonging to one matched order above 10mBTC according to certain predefined terms. The sha-256 hash of the terms is
620c10675663aa8a5857f01aa4680c69064a6461cfde510521357eaa551c6f43
We reserve the right to exclude anyone that we suspect to have manipulated this promotion.
I think the reason the betting amount is low could be people thinking that sports are much more fun than the result of what we are going to do with our block sizes and transaction fee’s. 620c10675663aa8a5857f01aa4680c69064a6461cfde510521357eaa551c6f43
We reserve the right to exclude anyone that we suspect to have manipulated this promotion.
I mean I know its important for all of us in bitcoin World but it is not as predictable as a football games result. I know give or take what Monaco-Metz will be, I have no idea what BU and core will do.
I had no idea that the eventual split of Bitcoin core and Bitcoin unlimited could do this.
So I will go with using ethereum from now one since they are already done their split with their hard fork from last year into Ethereum and Etclassic.
You are betting on the fork, so of course it can affect your bets. In fact, that is what you want to see happen (unless you bet on no fork).
ETH isn't much better imo, and I wouldn't be surprised to see another hard fork in the future to fix something. A BTC hard fork could cause you to lose your BTU (if BU forks) if the service doesn't give you the BTU, but all other bets are still unaffected by a fork.
sr. member
Activity: 473
Merit: 252
please do not contact us here via PM for support.
April 02, 2017, 06:36:03 AM
Unfortunately, our users are rather reluctant in betting on long term markets that aggregate important and extremely useful informations for society. To motivate betting on our https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-future-if-segwit-is-activated-as-soft-fork/ market, we will give out 2x 50mBTC. We will distribute this to the two users belonging to one matched order above 10mBTC according to certain predefined terms. The sha-256 hash of the terms is
620c10675663aa8a5857f01aa4680c69064a6461cfde510521357eaa551c6f43
We reserve the right to exclude anyone that we suspect to have manipulated this promotion.
I think the reason the betting amount is low could be people thinking that sports are much more fun than the result of what we are going to do with our block sizes and transaction fee’s. 620c10675663aa8a5857f01aa4680c69064a6461cfde510521357eaa551c6f43
We reserve the right to exclude anyone that we suspect to have manipulated this promotion.
I mean I know its important for all of us in bitcoin World but it is not as predictable as a football games result. I know give or take what Monaco-Metz will be, I have no idea what BU and core will do.
This is a valid point. It's more fun to place a bet on some soccer game and watch it right after.
Anyway, our policital bets like the Next President in the US and France also attracted decent volume (>>1000 BTC and over 300 BTC respectively) . And they are also rather long term. We still hope Futarchy markets will become more popular. The more volume these markets attract, the better the price is going to be, which could help finding consensus some day.
@Hatcher Yes, it is a draw.
sr. member
Activity: 473
Merit: 252
please do not contact us here via PM for support.
April 02, 2017, 01:32:41 AM
Is anyone else unable to login right now?
Sometimes there are strange issues. Deleting your fairlay cookies, clearing your cache, going in incognito or trying another machine usually solves these. We are confident these bugs disappear with our new release.
April 01, 2017, 07:26:30 PM
Is anyone else unable to login right now?
April 01, 2017, 12:22:30 PM
Unfortunately, our users are rather reluctant in betting on long term markets that aggregate important and extremely useful informations for society. To motivate betting on our https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-future-if-segwit-is-activated-as-soft-fork/ market, we will give out 2x 50mBTC. We will distribute this to the two users belonging to one matched order above 10mBTC according to certain predefined terms. The sha-256 hash of the terms is
620c10675663aa8a5857f01aa4680c69064a6461cfde510521357eaa551c6f43
We reserve the right to exclude anyone that we suspect to have manipulated this promotion.
I think the reason the betting amount is low could be people thinking that sports are much more fun than the result of what we are going to do with our block sizes and transaction fee’s. 620c10675663aa8a5857f01aa4680c69064a6461cfde510521357eaa551c6f43
We reserve the right to exclude anyone that we suspect to have manipulated this promotion.
I mean I know its important for all of us in bitcoin World but it is not as predictable as a football games result. I know give or take what Monaco-Metz will be, I have no idea what BU and core will do.
I had no idea that the eventual split of Bitcoin core and Bitcoin unlimited could do this.
So I will go with using ethereum from now one since they are already done their split with their hard fork from last year into Ethereum and Etclassic.
April 01, 2017, 12:19:18 PM
Unfortunately, our users are rather reluctant in betting on long term markets that aggregate important and extremely useful informations for society. To motivate betting on our https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-future-if-segwit-is-activated-as-soft-fork/ market, we will give out 2x 50mBTC. We will distribute this to the two users belonging to one matched order above 10mBTC according to certain predefined terms. The sha-256 hash of the terms is
620c10675663aa8a5857f01aa4680c69064a6461cfde510521357eaa551c6f43
We reserve the right to exclude anyone that we suspect to have manipulated this promotion.
I think the reason the betting amount is low could be people thinking that sports are much more fun than the result of what we are going to do with our block sizes and transaction fee’s. 620c10675663aa8a5857f01aa4680c69064a6461cfde510521357eaa551c6f43
We reserve the right to exclude anyone that we suspect to have manipulated this promotion.
I mean I know its important for all of us in bitcoin World but it is not as predictable as a football games result. I know give or take what Monaco-Metz will be, I have no idea what BU and core will do.
April 01, 2017, 02:39:19 AM
Unfortunately, our users are rather reluctant in betting on long term markets that aggregate important and extremely useful informations for society. To motivate betting on our https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-future-if-segwit-is-activated-as-soft-fork/ market, we will give out 2x 50mBTC. We will distribute this to the two users belonging to one matched order above 10mBTC according to certain predefined terms. The sha-256 hash of the terms is
620c10675663aa8a5857f01aa4680c69064a6461cfde510521357eaa551c6f43
We reserve the right to exclude anyone that we suspect to have manipulated this promotion.
620c10675663aa8a5857f01aa4680c69064a6461cfde510521357eaa551c6f43
We reserve the right to exclude anyone that we suspect to have manipulated this promotion.
So is this a draw? You will randomly choose one matched bet to win this prize?
Anyways, I placed a qualifying bet. Now that I understand how these markets work, I may participate in more of them. Quite cool.
sr. member
Activity: 473
Merit: 252
please do not contact us here via PM for support.
March 31, 2017, 10:36:30 PM
As we are an outspoken critic of the 1MB blockers at Core, we received some complaints, calling us BU trolls and similiar things. Just to make it clear for once. We reject nothing more than a solution that will result in a permanent chain split. BU has not the necessary community support and we reject it. We are supporting a hard fork to SegWit and 2 MB blocks. We'd support any solution, that brings back the transaction fees to 3-10c, fixes transaction malleability, enables the concept of sidechains (2-way-peg for projects like Rootstock) and has the majority of the community behind it.
sr. member
Activity: 473
Merit: 252
please do not contact us here via PM for support.
March 31, 2017, 10:10:02 PM
Unfortunately, our users are rather reluctant in betting on long term markets that aggregate important and extremely useful informations for society. To motivate betting on our https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-future-if-segwit-is-activated-as-soft-fork/ market, we will give out 2x 50mBTC. We will distribute this to the two users belonging to one matched order above 10mBTC according to certain predefined terms. The sha-256 hash of the terms is
620c10675663aa8a5857f01aa4680c69064a6461cfde510521357eaa551c6f43
We reserve the right to exclude anyone that we suspect to have manipulated this promotion.
Edit: This promotion runs until June 1st 2017 and will also be settled at this date. It's a draw. The orderid that is closest to a predetermined value, according to some predetermined measure, wins.
620c10675663aa8a5857f01aa4680c69064a6461cfde510521357eaa551c6f43
We reserve the right to exclude anyone that we suspect to have manipulated this promotion.
Edit: This promotion runs until June 1st 2017 and will also be settled at this date. It's a draw. The orderid that is closest to a predetermined value, according to some predetermined measure, wins.
sr. member
Activity: 473
Merit: 252
please do not contact us here via PM for support.
March 31, 2017, 09:54:36 PM
thank you for the bug report! We indeed introduced it this week.
We send you a 10mBTC bug bounty via PM.
We send you a 10mBTC bug bounty via PM.
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