Topic: MegaDice - Play Instant Bitcoin Dice & Be Part of the Bankroll - page 8. (Read 34589 times)

Yes it's over, and even if it would start again, we have powerful hardware DDoS protection setup!

I know this is less than the amount JD had invested before they started using the CLAM altcoin stuff. But perhaps as much in dollar value? Are there sites with bigger amounts invested?

Congrats on 5102.19913406 BTC Bankroll

CURRENT BANKROLL:
4971.60283588 BTC

We're getting close to 5000 BTC bankroll 

Having connection issues. The site doesn't load most of the time, but isitdownrightnow says it's up and my investment has been growing the last couple days so it is obviously active.

ah, yes. I see that now.


the total wagered from that dicesites.com is clearly wrong given it is little more then the amount won (they apparently show total won + profit; it ignores the total amount that was bet and lost (except for the profit)) (plus it shows the data available on your site that starts in 5/11/14, yet gives the start date of 18/04/12; which from an investor POV is deceivingly very unflattering; it would make one think that the wagered and profit of the last year and 3 months was actually spread out over the life time of the site; and thus RoI per year would be much less (roughly 1/3)).

 the total wagered can easily be calculated from 2 stats on your site, total won and profit: as I explained before, "total wagered=total won+total loss=total won + (total won + profit)= ~202342" (currently is about 203518);   this is because obviously total wagered is total won + total lost (there are no ties correct?) and total lost is equal to the amount that was won plus the profit cause that's the only way the profit could be what it is. you understand this, yes?

thus: total bet amount x 0.019 is 3866.842. 1586  less then the actual profit of 2280, like I said actual profit is about 60%(59%) of expected.

anyway, maybe this is perfectly reasonable variance IDK; although if I were you as a casino I would like to know what the variance and standard deviation is for the games on my casino.

is the DDoS attack over now, is the site safe to use?

Average bet size doesn't really say much because one highroller betting 20 coins amounts to 20,000,000 minimum size bets,

Profit has actually been higher than expected value and the bigger the biggest bets are, the bigger likelihood of the actual profit differing from the EV. For expected profit just put total bet amount x 0.019... Total wagered is available in the global stats API call.

thanks for the updates.

(just a note, the text still says 7.7 whereas it should say 7.5)

regarding:


that means the house profit is quite alot lower then I would expect. according to my calculations this means there is only an effective house profit of about 1.13% instead of the expected 1.9% (it's about 60% of 1.9%). I know variance, but after more then 255'000'000 bets this is extremely low! the standard deviation after this many bets with the average bet of 0.0008btc is only 12.669btc; yet the current deviation is of 1556btc; that is 123 deviations! that odds of that are practically zero. so either a lot of people are betting big and when in the positive never betting again thus taking a significant portion of expected profits away, or something more fishy is going like the possibility I mentioned of someone with access to the server seed making sure-winning bets.  it's just because as an investor this means the annual rate of return has been about 18% instead of the expected 33% that would come from a 1.9% (0.95% for the investor) house profit. for such a risky investment as this, 18% doesn't seem all that much, whereas 33% would seem more appropriate.

my calculations were as follows:

total wagered=total won+total loss=total won - (total won + profit)= ~202342
effective house edge=effective profit/total wagered=~1.13%
average bet=total wagered/number of bets=~0.0008
standard deviation=2*averagebet*sqrt(#bets*probability of winning*probability of losing)=~12.669btc
current deviation=expected profit-effective profit=(total wagered*1.9%)-2288=1556btc

care to comment/explain or check my calculations/logic? how does something that a priori has a practically infinitesimal probability of occurring (123 standard deviations) occur? can big players that stop betting altogether after being in the positive really account for such a huge deviation? if so, I would like to understand how, why or some source, cause to me that seems extremely unlikely given what is known of gamblers and casinos.

Could you not automatically ban IPs that are connecting with a secret key that leads to an account with any amount of btc in it? I think is perfectly reasonable to assume that people trying to access their own bitcoins are not the ones behind the ddos.