Topic: MegaDice - Play Instant Bitcoin Dice & Be Part of the Bankroll - page 9. (Read 34589 times)

thanks for the updates.

(just a note, the text still says 7.7 whereas it should say 7.5)

regarding:


that means the house profit is quite alot lower then I would expect. according to my calculations this means there is only an effective house profit of about 1.13% instead of the expected 1.9% (it's about 60% of 1.9%). I know variance, but after more then 255'000'000 bets this is extremely low! the standard deviation after this many bets with the average bet of 0.0008btc is only 12.669btc; yet the current deviation is of 1556btc; that is 123 deviations! that odds of that are practically zero. so either a lot of people are betting big and when in the positive never betting again thus taking a significant portion of expected profits away, or something more fishy is going like the possibility I mentioned of someone with access to the server seed making sure-winning bets.  it's just because as an investor this means the annual rate of return has been about 18% instead of the expected 33% that would come from a 1.9% (0.95% for the investor) house profit. for such a risky investment as this, 18% doesn't seem all that much, whereas 33% would seem more appropriate.

my calculations were as follows:

total wagered=total won+total loss=total won + (total won + profit)= ~202342
effective house edge=effective profit/total wagered=~1.13%
average bet=total wagered/number of bets=~0.0008
standard deviation=2*averagebet*sqrt(#bets*probability of winning*probability of losing)=~12.669btc
current deviation=expected profit-effective profit=(total wagered*1.9%)-2288=1556btc

care to comment/explain or check my calculations/logic? how does something that a priori has a practically infinitesimal probability of occurring (123 standard deviations) occur? can big players that stop betting altogether after being in the positive really account for such a huge deviation? if so, I would like to understand how, why or some source, cause to me that seems extremely unlikely given what is known of gamblers and casinos.

Could you not automatically ban IPs that are connecting with a secret key that leads to an account with any amount of btc in it? I think is perfectly reasonable to assume that people trying to access their own bitcoins are not the ones behind the ddos.

I have fixed this. The text is currently static and needs to be updated every now and then.

Yes, we're implementing this.


You are correct, I have updated the text!

"House profit" is profit taken from bets minus wins (1.9% edge). So the amount being paid to investor's is half of this (can be considered 0.95% edge)


Yes, this is true. I added it. The same applies if there's unauthorised access to the server and someone can create winning bets.

Yes, we're still under a heavy DDoS attack, but it's under control thanks to hardware DDoS protection. We're still tweaking the DDoS protection rules and believe the attacker runs completely out of variations soon. We expect user profile pages to be enabled today.

Why is there only 2000 BTC in cold storage suddenly from 4500? that's much less trust/confidence in the existence/security of stated funds then before; less then half of the bank to be shown is very little assurance. I just checked the balances on those 2 addressess and they add up to about 4300, so it's there, but on the site it says each has about 1000, leading one to believe a priori that only about 2000BTC are in those 2 cold storage addresses, so I'd fix this and display on the website the 3000 of that first one instead of 1000 if I were you and wanted to attract investors.

I still take issue with the following about lack of 2FA:

speaking of security, why haven't you got an optional 2FA security for users? unless you consider the password the 2nd factor, and the url the 1st? not nearly the same level of security as an OTP accessible from ones smartphone, like google authenticator IE.

please introduce 2FA ASAP, and increase the cold storage (at least 3/4 or so); until then I don't feel safe to put my money on something with so little assurance and security.

I also noticed that some of the numbers on the section "How Investor's Percentages of the Bankroll Are Determined" are wrong.

"The original investor's 15 coins now make up 75% and the new investor's 5 coins make up 25% of the total bankroll. If now another 10 coins are lost by players, the first investor gets 7.5 coins and the second investor gets 22.5 2.5 coins, bringing their investments up to 22.5 and 7.7 7.5 coins"

and one clarification, the stated "house profit" is the investor profit right? the expected 0.95% of wagered BTC; not the total casino profit expected house edge of 1.9% correct?

another thing, on the "Potential Risks for Investors"

in the last part you should also include the risk of the operators of satoshidice playing as  a player but having access to the server seed know in advance what the outcome will be thus can win every bet, thus scamming money from investors. unless you found some solution to this problem of the current implementation of provably fair.

lastly, I still can't access users pages, stats pages, new user, and others; is this still from the ddos?

What is now the site could've used ..?? Because I played yesterday but the site cannot be used. And after I see on these forums turns stricken DDOS, whether that issue is over done..??

A few days ago we have changed the main cold storage to:
1DmqFgYfKMT1F8B3tGhVMFf82vdgdSsjNV
Signed Message: Satoshi Dice Cold Storage signed 2015-12-27

And secondary cold storage: 18e5jpfn9zo9GQov1Ks9Pzh6Yam2SvFqqo
Signed Message: Satoshi Dice Cold Storage signed 2015-04-12

The old addresses are no longer in use.


The DDoS is still ongoing, but in low volume so the site is fully functional at the time I'm writing this.

I hate how much DDoS-ing has become a thing these days :-/ CloudFlare and other mitigation technologies have rendered them not much than a nuisance.

It's back again now. The attack intensified earlier today, but is solved for now.

Thank you for your timely and comprehensive reply. I'm a little disappointed that I can't contribute and invest in the site's bankroll, but I understand your "playing it safe" approach.

We're under DDoS attack, but it seems just blocking a couple of thousands if IPs solved it for now.

It would cancel out winnings at the percentage you have of the investment. If you invest 5000 BTC, you'd get roughly 50% of the bankroll. If you then roll and win 100, your investment would go down by 50. If you on the other hand lose 100, your investment would go up 50 and you'd also be charged 25 in commission if divesting and withdrawing.

If you invest 100, you'd only get about 2% of the bankroll, and roll until losing 100, it would give you 2 coins to your investment and charge 1 coin in commission. Winning 100 would make your investment lose 2 coins.

At the time of writing, there's 1000+ coins in profit for investors. The biggest investor currently has 287.89908571 BTC in profit, so there's definitely money to be made.

This decision was made on the basis of extensive legal counsel. The best way to limit legal risk for SatoshiDice, and thereby protect its stakeholders, is to block US players.

Note that this decision does not mean that online gambling is illegal in the US, nor does it mean that Bitcoin gaming is illegal. However, the courts have not been clear on the definition of gambling, nor on what would constitute “legitimate gaming,” nor are jurisdictions properly defined, and thus this is a proactive measure to protect those involved in the project.

Further, this decision is not being made because of any citation or notice from any government agency, whatsoever. This is not, in any way, related to the recent Gox/Dwolla court order issue. Again, it is a proactive measure, based on the prudent legal guidance of our trusted lawyers.

We believe this is a wise move for the site to perpetuate in the long term.

Further, to clarify, SatoshiDice is hosted in Switzerland and has never utilized US currency or engaged with the US banking system whatsoever.

My apologies if it was answered somewhere earlier in this thread, but why isn't this site available in the US? I haven't encountered another btc gambling website (with or without an invest option) where US players were forbidden.

When you zoom out the "Total profit" graph on https://dicesites.com/satoshidice, you can see a clear upward trend. When you zoom in the graph, you will see many short-term ups and downs. I haven't invested in SD but in some other sites, but the nature is pretty much the same.

So ... are people who are investing this generally seeing a return?
I put in a couple of BTC a few days ago and have just been sitting here watching my balance going down, very very slowly.
I guess this means a lot of people are beating the house?
So this kind of feels like it has all the bad bits of gambling (losing money) and none of the actual fun (playing a game), lol.

Interested to hear if anyone can let me know how much they have made/lost over the med or long term, as an investor.

One of the best sites

problem solved.....Thankyou......great site.....I recomend it is very good

AFAIK, there is no automatic password recovery. So you have to send them an email at [email protected] and ask for their help.

Hi I have only just found out about the site and have just read through the thread and am set on the idea of making a small investment and seeing how it goes, and if I am regularly able to withdraw without hassle, then maybe making a larger investment.

Can someone answer one question for me though? If I invest, is there any point in also playing the game? I understand that I would be gambling against myself (or more correctly, gambling against myself+a lot of other people). Would this have the effect of cancelling out my winnings/losings, thus rendering it a waste of time? Or would it effectively hedge my bets, offering me a safer, but lower rate of return?