I also think Bastianini has a better chance of riding a factory Ducati bike next year in place of Jack Miller, despite his impressive performances at the start of the season.
while Jorge Martin experienced a decline in performance at the beginning of this season, as Rookie of the Year in MotoGP 2021 Jorge Martin failed to maintain a brilliant appearance in the MotoGP series at the beginning of the season, although there are still many series remaining for this season but I think it will be very difficult for him to bounce back considering that its competitors are starting to find the right feel for the motorbike they are riding and starting to be competitive.
What you say is also true because apart from the DNF they experienced at the beginning of this season, but if you look at the consistent performance and good results in several races, Bastianini is still far superior to Jorge Martin so the manufacturer will definitely prefer Bastianini to be placed in the seat occupied by Miller at this time.
According to this article Enea Bastianini will be the successor of Miller, the article also says that Martin is not consistent enough for the factory team and delivers too many crashes.
I also see it that way because some article writers and MotoGp observers at this point see more opportunities in Bastianini than Martin because Bastianini has managed to give very good results for Ducati in several races.
Rins now comes to the second team of Aprilia, think this is a very good solution for Rins and Aprilia. Most places next year are taken, remain only LCR Honda, KTM Tech 3 one place and one place in the 2nd Aprilia team.
That's obvious, but for now there are three more teams that are still possible for the riders to approach, Mooneyvr46, Pramac Racing, and also Repsol Honda.