Most races follow the same pattern, Leclerc takes pole, Verstappen just behind him. Verstappen in the faster race-distance car overtakes Leclerc and wins. Leclerc takes second or retires the car. Perez and Sainz bumble about lower down the order, in cars that should finish 3rd and 4th every race... Mercedes are ultra-reliable but slow, and finish 5th/6th unless Ferrari have issues or Perez/Sainz perform badly... in which case the Mercs can move up a couple of places.
But there's no chance of Merc winning a race unless both Verstappen and Leclerc retire their cars.
I think so too, but how would it look if Mercedes publicly gave up after 9 races and Wolf said we're writing off the season, there's no chance for us anyway. Ferrari and RedBull have also lost a lot of points because of defects, they are fast but not very reliable.
But I don't agree with you on one point, Perez and Sainz are two strong drivers, they won't really fight for the world championship title, but Perez shows that he's not just a second driver, he wants to be in the race for the win, but he also has a lot of bad luck with defects.