Topic: nrd525 Market Tracker (Read 83088 times)

Sold 0.4 BTC at 98200 a couple weeks ago.

MSTR is a pyramid scam/scheme.  A well disguised scheme to find new suckers to buy $1 of Bitcoin for $2-$3.  The people buying stock at market price (either on the market or newly issued) are getting a very bad deal.  It will collapse when they run out of new suckers.

You cannot create value with financial shenanigans.  1 BTC is still worth 1 BTC.

The bondholders get priority over stockholders. So when bitcoin plummets - the stockholders could get zero.

The amount of leverage offered is very small. If you want leverage, buy options. If you want to borrow money, borrow your own money (or better yet - reduce your expenses).

Historically the GBTC premium when negative. It could happen with MSTR.

It's amazing how much hype and inaccurate coverage this is getting.  People like Michael Saylor because he is a rich charismatic leader who is pumping Bitcoin.  They think he's smart, but he's playing them to pump his stock.  The convertible bonds are very useful to confuse people. Saylor has created all sorts of terms like "Bitcoin return" which should be illegal. 

It's fascinating to see how scams have evolved from stealing money outright, to ponzis, to complex ponzis (like Celsius and Axie Infinity) to a NASDAQ 100 pyramid scam.

While it's tempting to try to short MSTR, this is extremely hard to do. It makes more sense to wait for it to collapse, drag down the crypto markets, and buy cheaper crypto assets.

It's impact - on collapse - is likely to be similar to that of FTX + Celsius.  Currently MSTR is $35 billion market cap over BTC value - and it's core software value is low.

A couple days ago sold 3 BTC at 65500 and 14 ETH at 3500 before the price dumped.  You can get a 15%-19% return on Biden to win the Dem nomination on Polymarket (and even more on Betfair).

Price action is very bullish. BTC up to 64k and only a small pull back and now steady at 62k.

Gut feeling is that it could go 90k-100k this year.  Maybe more.

ETF inflows are huge (see Glassnode youtube). Social risk is low (see Into the Cryptoverse youtube).  Google trends are lower than 2021 and 2018.

That said, I like to buy it when it is 75%-85% off the top in bear markets.  I expect future bear and bull markets to be muted. So buying a 75% move (say at 25k, after peaking at 99.9k) might be the play - whereas if you wait for 15k bitcoins in that scenario - you won't get them.

I haven't decided if I should try to sell some at the top of the bull market, or just hold for another cycle or two (or hold for a very very long time).  Timing the top is extremely hard. Last time we had a flat double top which was very atypical of prior cycles.

Bitcoin is up a lot on this year.  Interesting to see the US avoiding a recession (so far).

I'm loading up on Biden to win the Dem nomination (US president, 2024) for approximately 70 cents.  I think the odds are closer to 90% - with the 10% risk of losing mostly being that he drops out.  Various sites that offer this include: PredictIt (US residents), Polymarket (non-US residents), Betfair and Smarkets (UK residents and a large number of other countries), and some sports books that I'm less familiar with.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/airbit-club-co-founder-sentenced-prison-crypto-mining-ponzi
Also article claims: 7 billion in losses from crypto ponzis in 2022!   (and that is probably only the ponzis that we know about)

What is your longterm strategy and price ideas for BTC and ETH (or any other holding you have)

Thanks

bought 1 btc at 25110

Bullish: Glassnode youtube analysis.
Bearish: US monetary supply is shrinking for the first time in 90 years (the Depression)

I bought 1 btc at 27850.

Michael at Box Mining argues that the recent huge Hong Kong conference, opened by the leader of Hong Kong, shows that China is opening back up to crypto.  He thinks the largest market cap coins (including Ethereum which has strong Chinese connections - Vitalik speaks Chinese apparently!) will be the first to benefit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AGv8PWj6zCk

Ah ha!  Coinbase separates its transactions into "regular" and "Coinbase Pro".  If you want the Coinbase Pro you need to go to this page. It will look empty. But you need to generate a report!

https://pro.coinbase.com/profile/statements

I bought 15 ETH at 2070.

Bought 1 btc at 30220.

Does Coinbase transactions CSV not show all your buys?  I'm 90% sure I bought some bitcoins on Coinbase once in 2020 Fall and once in Jan 2021 - but I don't see them listed!  I checked other sites I use and I don't see purchases there. Also I sent coins from Coinbase at two points (probably to Blockfi or Celsius to lend them) right after I'm 100% sure that I bought them.

I was thinking about buying more BTC and ETH (and possibly some Polygon), but then I saw a chart of the US M2 monetary supply. In 2020 it increased by 20%!!!  The rise from 8k to 69k was (probably?) mostly explainable by that.  That's unprecedented (and an over-reaction by the so-called conservative Trump presidency).  With rising interest rates and tightening US M2 supply now, and the likelihood of a very small recession - I'm hesitant to buy back in.

I'm liking this channel and also the Glassnode channel.
https://www.youtube.com/@intothecryptoverse

(I'm also watching Tone Vays go off the deep end on politics and science - and embrace the extreme right).

I'm tempted to buy Trump NFTs, but I probably mostly missed the boat on that.  They've gone from $100 to 0.5 ETH (currently $900 USD).

At 28k BTC we're at an interesting position. It's either the start of a new bull market or a fake breakout.  I mostly hope it is fake, as I want to buy back in at < 20k - ideally once it's clear that the US is in a recession.  Though it'd also be fun if bitcoin pumped to 40k+.

I'm wondering if Dogecoin will become an alt-right/extreme right meme coin backed by Elon Musk (he's moving relatively quickly to the far-right politically)?  If so, will this be bullish or bearish?  I suspect it might be bearish at first - as the Dogecoin community is more centrist or possibly even liberal than the typical US resident.

thanks for your update!

Are you still holding BTC/ETH or at the moment out of the market? What is your strategy for 2023?
Appreciate your input

The next crypto bull market, if there is one, might be seriously muted compared to priors. Ex. bitcoin/eth/etc may not surpass their ATH.
Prior bull markets went 38x (2011 vs 2013), 18x (2017 vs 2013) and 3.5x (2021 vs 2017).  Comparing the peaks.

Recommended videos:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CQHD8bB-Rok

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ou9i-zfZVvk

November 2018 to March 2019, bitcoin bottomed at 3200-4000.  I'm wondering if one or more large actors were front running the 85% retracement?  So we never hit 3000.  
Previously we had a flash crash that was the bottom (or really two flash crashes in Jan and August 2015).  That year we spent most of the time at $300 (ish), but flash crashed to $170 (depending on the exchange).

I'm wondering if we have spent enough time from Nov 2022 to Jan 2023 for this to be the "bottom" of the cycle?  It seems like it might not be enough time.  So this move from 16k to 21k might be fake breakout.

I think the US GDP growth for 2023 is likely to be near zero.   Will crypto prices front-run the recovery?  (Will stock prices front-run the recovery? - It might be the same question if they are strongly correlated).

If MtGox is a good precedent, the FTX bankruptcy (and others, like Celsius) can drag on for many years without overly adversely affecting price.

There are always more scams that need to be identified and collapse. So the fact that some scammy projects are still ongoing - we could still have hit the bottom.

So this wasn't 100% accurate. That said 2022 Q1 GDP US growth was -1.4%.   Bitcoin fell from 60k to 16k (>70%). And now we're expecting a 2023 US recession.

There was definitely a lack of lockdowns (probably due to the Omicron variant being a lot less deadly - something I hinted at, but at the time we didn't know until several weeks later when we had more data from South Africa, and protesting/riots. And the Republicans only had very modest gains in the 2022 midterms.

It's interesting how the lag on data reporting impacts Omicron. With a doubling speed of 2.5 days (varying a lot by country/region), if you have a 7 day lag it can easily go from 1% to 7% of your cases.  So while the US CDC last reported the US at 2.9% (Dec 5-11), as of Dec 17 we're probably at 20%-30% and we're heading to a fast 50% by Dec 20 (ish).

The next big CDC Nowcast release, which will likely show us to be at around 20% of cases, will be on Tuesday.  It might impact markets.  I'm thinking about putting in some low bids for Ethereum (and possibly Polygon and some others???).

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions

The next move down might occur when the studies are out on how quickly Omicron spreads (possibly twice the R value of Delta.

Bitcoin flash crashes to 41.5k.  I think it could still crash into the 30k-40k range.

In retrospect, I think the US is going to favor "freedom" (aka disproportionately Republicans following an anti-science cult dying, and unfortunately a lot of immuno-compromized and old people who took the vaccine but it had limited effectiveness) over mandates and lockdowns.  And possibly to an extent that we don't go into a recession, even though Omicron is currently forecast (on Metaculous) to increase at 25%/day faster than Delta.

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8756/-per-day-growth-rate-of-omicron/

The good news is that there is a likelihood (according to Metaculous) that Omicron is less lethal per case (though probably more lethal once you take into account the increased number of cases).