I've just made a little calculation how much could NXT be worth at the end of the ICO period and before the snapshot. It depends largely on the market cap the users think the Ardor platform will have.
The formula is:
NXT value at snapshot = expected combined market cap / 1 billion / 4 (Explanation below)
If you think Ardor will be
tha nu big kid on da block and have
1 billion USD market cap, then the NXT price is now seriously under-valued, because 1 bn / 1 bn / 4 =
0,25, what will be the expected price before the snapshot.
If you think
250 million (a little bit more than the
present market cap of NXT+ARDR) is basically what can be expected, then the expected NXT price before the snapshot is about
6 cents - 40% below the market price.
If you think, like our loved ultra-bull barrabas
, that Ardor will have a
50 million market cap, then the price before the snapshot can be expected at
1,25 cents.
Explanation: The calculation is actually pretty easy. I expect that ARDR and IGNIS will be worth
about the same, at the beginning of Ardor's existence, because ARDR should tend to a price equivalent to the value of all child-chains combined (it is their backbone, so it should not be worth less long-term) and other child-chains are all IOUs and so much less relevant. So the formula above results from the market cap divided in 2 (ARDR and IGNIS), then divided into a billion tokens each, and finally divided by 2, because at the snapshot you will get 1 IGNIS for 2 NXT while the rest is distributed at the ICO or hold by Jelurida.
Makes a lot of sense.
Here's my understanding of the situation:
a/ If you wait for the snapshot, then for 1 NXT you will get 1/2 IGNIS.
b/ Now, during the ICO, for 1NXT you get 2 IGNIS (1 if you are late), something around 4 times more than the snapshot
Now...let's factor ARDR in the equation: I also expect that ARDR and IGNIS will be worth
about the same.
Today, if you sell your NXT for ARDR on exchanges, you get 1:1 ratio (if you trade smart..., they are roughly at the same price).
Hence, the best solutions for your NXT are today:
1- the ICO (x2 IGNIS per NXT)
But you need the client etc... and it is unclear how to participate. Moreover, some recent events don't argue in the favor of participating to the ICO (at least for most of the people, the spart-techs will make it happen)
2- Exchanges (x1)
3- Snapshot (x0.5)
1st conclusion: NXT value is bound to drop significantly in the future due to this game of attrition. I believe that it will be divided by 2 before the snapshot happens (markets will anticipate).