Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +36315 units

buwaytress

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You can't keep a good man down. And you can't keep a bad gambler away. It's my worst season by far, and while common wisdom says to quit while not so far behind, we might as well continue in the fashion of the thread. Plus, hey, good value is good value, no? And I really like tonight's selection with Team Palmer hopefully getting the better of Team Saka?

200 units at Chelsea to WIN vs Arsenal @6.99. Other odds: 6.20. Units advantage: 79. Bet ID: 6627d913fa917e0001310c1c

Running advantage after 85 bets: +8336 (+79)
All-time cumulative: +98,106
Running units after 84 bets (6W|78L): -4129 (-200)

buwaytress

legendary

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Merit: 3408

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Those didn't work, Chelsea did stand a fair chance but City as usual found a way, or do we say Chelsea found a way to lose?

El Clasico and it's down to the end of the season. Real have a hand on the trophy, but can Barca throw an early spanner in the works or place Real's other hand on the trophy?

200 units at Sportsbet on Barcelona to WIN vs Real @4.10. Other odds: 4.00. Units advantage: 20

Running advantage after 84 bets: +8257 (+20)
All-time cumulative: +98,027
Running units after 83 bets (6W|77L): -3929 (-200)

buwaytress

legendary

Activity: 2758

Merit: 3408

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Quote from: KTChampions on April 18, 2024, 12:50:20 PM

I'm glad you were able to capitalize on Arsenal's defeat, if you weren't biased towards Liverpool then perhaps a multi-bet on the defeat of these two teams would have turned things around this season Cheesy

I don’t understand this ridiculous odds for Liverpool qualifying. I wouldn't look in this direction even if it was 15.00.

Indeed, it would have been a 130/1++ acca, and ordinarily, the Villa one was never a problem for me, but Liverpool's curse is no matter how bad they are, I just can't bring myself to bet against them. I'd advise it to anyone though, 10/1 versus Liverpool, you could even cash out when Liverpool concede first haha.

The odds were shameful, agree. At least I remember, for Liverpool to qualify against Barca all those years ago was 20/1.

Anyway, today is another weird slightly below value odds for Arsenal to lose, only because it's away I guess. And then FA Cup's Chelsea have Cole Palmer vs tired/injured Haaland. Still, I will take both.

100 units at Sportsbet each on:
Wolves to WIN vs Arsenal @9.20. Other odds: 9.00. Bet ID: 6623c890fa917e0001c6627c
Chelsea to WIN vs City @4.80. Other odds same. Bet ID: 6623c89bfa917e0001bc2763
Units advantage: 20

Running advantage after 83 bets: +8237 (+20)
All-time cumulative: +98,007
Running units after 81 bets (6W|75L): -3729 (-200)

KTChampions

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Quote from: buwaytress on April 18, 2024, 08:52:30 AM

So close, so far, but nothing matters this season if we don't win another trophy, so we might as well go all out tonight on Liverpool to somehow qualify past Atalanta, no? That requires at least a 3-goal margin win.

200 units at Sportsbet on Liverpool to qualify to SF vs Atalanta @5.71. Other odds: 5.25
Units advantage: 92
Bet ID: 662116c9fa917e0001891908

Running advantage after 81 bets: +8217 (+92)
All-time cumulative: +97,987
Running units after 80 bets (6W|74L): -3529 (-100)

Real's victory was indeed close, but City still managed to extend their defeat beyond normal time. It's a pity.
I'm glad you were able to capitalize on Arsenal's defeat, if you weren't biased towards Liverpool then perhaps a multi-bet on the defeat of these two teams would have turned things around this season Cheesy

I don’t understand this ridiculous odds for Liverpool qualifying. I wouldn't look in this direction even if it was 15.00.

buwaytress

legendary

Activity: 2758

Merit: 3408

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So close, so far, but nothing matters this season if we don't win another trophy, so we might as well go all out tonight on Liverpool to somehow qualify past Atalanta, no? That requires at least a 3-goal margin win.

200 units at Sportsbet on Liverpool to qualify to SF vs Atalanta @5.71. Other odds: 5.25
Units advantage: 92
Bet ID: 662116c9fa917e0001891908

Running advantage after 81 bets: +8217 (+92)
All-time cumulative: +97,987
Running units after 80 bets (6W|74L): -3529 (-100)

buwaytress

legendary

Activity: 2758

Merit: 3408

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Hooray Villa, boo Liverpool. The time your opponent slips up, you do too? Crystanbul or Crystalgate, Palace really has our number.

Liverpool's last three games xG stats were 3.5+, 2.3+ and 2.7+ and we only scored 2 in the first. Worst, last three games xGA were <1, 2, and <1... and we let in 6 goals.

Bad luck, but that's how the ball rolls. I'm so tempted to go big on Champions League but perhaps I'll sit back to enjoy tonight, and put a simple acca on Champions League royalty:

100 units at Sportsbet on Bayern and Real to WIN vs Arsenal and City respectively @12.32. Other odds: 10.80
Bet ID: 661e9e7bfa917e0001cfee5d
Units advantage: 152

Running advantage after 80 bets: +8125 (+152)
All-time cumulative: +97,895
Running units after 79 bets (6W|73L): -3429 (+963)

buwaytress

legendary

Activity: 2758

Merit: 3408

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Simple "Hope Arsenal lose" bet today, and Villa are once more the recipients. Liverpool are currently down (surprise, surprise) though so Gunners might even be a tad complacent if we end up not winning?

100 units at Sportsbet on Villa to WIN vs Arsenal @10.63. Other odds: 10.10
Units advantage: 53
Bet ID: 661bae31fa917e00013a1fab

Running advantage after 79 bets: +7973 (+53)
All-time cumulative: +97,743
Running units after 78 bets (5W|73L): -4392 (-100)

Quote from: mv1986 on April 06, 2024, 06:36:45 PM

A nice thread and I have been wondering about this, too. For a long time I thought that Cloudbet seems to have the best odds in the market, but it did change a little bit recently. I have been asking myself whether most of the bookies pull the same data or suggested odds from somewhere or whether they all have their own algorithms and individual adjustments? Since there are obvious differences, there seems to be a good amount of individual input and assessment on behalf of the bookies. But I thought they might all be connected to some basic data feed.

"Running units after 77 bets (5W|72L): -4292 (-100)"

Does that mean you placed 77 bets and lost 72? I am not going through all of them, but I assume you are going for a lot of combos?

Yes, that's correct. You've also caught me at my worst and most inactive season... but in any case, I have a very high rate of loss, or low win percentage, but it's because I chase high odds. Generally heavy ML bets on the underdog like today's one but yes, rare accas too.

And odds are usually from data analytical. Companies like Pinnacle are called odds providers. They simply analyse data and provide odds that many bookies just take and adjust. But there are also risk management software books use, calculating liabilities (as people place bets) and adjusting odds and limits on that.

Thanks for visiting!

mv1986

legendary

Activity: 2030

Merit: 1157

A nice thread and I have been wondering about this, too. For a long time I thought that Cloudbet seems to have the best odds in the market, but it did change a little bit recently. I have been asking myself whether most of the bookies pull the same data or suggested odds from somewhere or whether they all have their own algorithms and individual adjustments? Since there are obvious differences, there seems to be a good amount of individual input and assessment on behalf of the bookies. But I thought they might all be connected to some basic data feed.

"Running units after 77 bets (5W|72L): -4292 (-100)"

Does that mean you placed 77 bets and lost 72? I am not going through all of them, but I assume you are going for a lot of combos?

buwaytress

legendary

Activity: 2758

Merit: 3408

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Arsenal can't lose, but while I have Brighton at home over 6/1, I think I like my chances. To sweeten the pot, let's put Liverpool as an acca, otherwise, it's a pointless bet if Liverpool don't win right?

100 units at Sportsbet on Brighton and Liverpool to WIN @10.37. Other odds: 9.89
Units advantage: 48
Bet ID: 661175e9fa917e0001974f15

Running advantage after 78 bets: +7920 (+48)
All-time cumulative: +97,690
Running units after 77 bets (5W|72L): -4292 (-100)

buwaytress

legendary

Activity: 2758

Merit: 3408

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^ Sorry I missed your post KTChampions, I really owe this thread some reinjection of attention, but the way real life is, I'm not sure things can really improve. Value bet scanning isn't exactly the most absurdly time-consuming process in the world. But it does need some kind of attention, and I've been unable to look beyond low-hanging fruits (hence the City overkill).

Unfortunately, I don't think things improve, but you never know. I win the lottery and this becomes my passion project haha.

With that, we put in an early Villa upset over Citeh -- no Watkins, no problems.

100 units at Sportsbet on Villa to WIN vs Man City @9.13. Other odds: 8.90
Units advantage: 23

Running advantage after 77 bets: +7872 (+23)
All-time cumulative: +97,642
Running units after 76 bets (5W|71L): -4192 (-1000)

KTChampions

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Quote from: buwaytress on March 10, 2024, 11:34:40 AM

Of course, Bayern had to go goal-crazy. Kane had to score a hattrick.

My poor form in this thread can be attributed to bad decisions, and an absence of posting wins when I actually made them. That'll teach for me for a lack of discipline.

Today's bet is illd-advised. Low value, because Liverpool are hardly at half their peak first eleven, while City are practically at maximum strength. Odds should be well above 5/1, but there is a strange vibe at Anfield, with a strange period of uncertainty looming over the club. Spirits have never been higher, and Klopp's men want him to go out with an absolute bang.

To paraphrase a forum regular Igebotz, I will say: "Better to take out sharks as I sink, than accept a quiet drowning."

With that, please don't follow this bet...

1000 units on Liverpool to WIN vs Man City @3.45. Other odds: similar. No units advantage
Bet ID: 65edd37edabdd80001e3ca20

Running advantage after 76 bets: +7849 (+0)
All-time cumulative: +97,619
Running units after 75 bets (5W|70L): -3192 (-100)

It was a good bet (in the poll I also chose Liverpool to win), it just so happened that Liverpool was unable to capitalize on their advantage, which they obviously had starting from the second half. I'm happy for Arsenal, but very disappointed that City managed to sneak away with a point today.
I will look with great interest at the updated quotes for the title tomorrow, in my opinion, City in no way justifies the status of favorite.

buwaytress

legendary

Activity: 2758

Merit: 3408

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Of course, Bayern had to go goal-crazy. Kane had to score a hattrick.

My poor form in this thread can be attributed to bad decisions, and an absence of posting wins when I actually made them. That'll teach for me for a lack of discipline.

Today's bet is illd-advised. Low value, because Liverpool are hardly at half their peak first eleven, while City are practically at maximum strength. Odds should be well above 5/1, but there is a strange vibe at Anfield, with a strange period of uncertainty looming over the club. Spirits have never been higher, and Klopp's men want him to go out with an absolute bang.

To paraphrase a forum regular Igebotz, I will say: "Better to take out sharks as I sink, than accept a quiet drowning."

With that, please don't follow this bet...

1000 units on Liverpool to WIN vs Man City @3.45. Other odds: similar. No units advantage
Bet ID: 65edd37edabdd80001e3ca20

Running advantage after 76 bets: +7849 (+0)
All-time cumulative: +97,619
Running units after 75 bets (5W|70L): -3192 (-100)

buwaytress

legendary

Activity: 2758

Merit: 3408

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Bayern played silky football, Kane scored twice, and Lazio were wiped off the UCL map. Ordinarily, this means I look elsewhere, but Bayern didn't actually solve their problems, struggling with creativity and if Kane has an off-day, problems? I think so, and Mainz at over 10/1 seems to me a decent outcome to put some money on.

100 units at Sportsbet on Mainz to WIN vs Bayern Munich @10.63. Other odds: 10.10. Units advantage: 53

Running advantage after 75 bets: +7849 (+53)
All-time cumulative: +97,619
Running units after 74 bets (5W|69L): -3092 (-100)

buwaytress

legendary

Activity: 2758

Merit: 3408

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Well and truly smacked. Arsenal were good, but this was more of a case of Blades being so bad, I even wonder if Manchester United's worst performances this season top that.

Over and out, I missed out Lazio's incredible upset on the first leg. Will Bayern try so hard they'll open themselves up and lose again? I say yes, let's see how far my bad season can progress.

100 units at Sportsbet on Lazio to WIN vs Bayern Munich @10.63. Other odds: 10.10
Units advantage: 53

Running advantage after 74 bets: +7796 (+53)
All-time cumulative: +97,566
Running units after 73 bets (5W|68L): -2992 (-100)

buwaytress

legendary

Activity: 2758

Merit: 3408

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Some days, your betting results should dictate your following day strategy. On other days, you try and compile the thoughts you've been having over recent weeks and try to mirror them in your bets.

With my thread, however, we simply do our best to pay attention to value. As such, we tag on tomorrow's Sheffield to try and get one win to keep their survival hopes alive (or for Arsenal to finally return to the mean). I caught great odds too, as books today are only giving 13/1.

100 units on Sheffield Utd to WIN vs Arsenal @18.60. Other odds: 13.80. Units advantage: 480
Bet ID: 65e0e6d2dabdd80001080fa4

Running advantage after 73 bets: +7743 (+480)
All-time cumulative: +97,513
Running units after 72 bets (5W|67L): -2892 (-100)

buwaytress

legendary

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Tough luck on the earlier bets. I wasn't actually going to place any for tomorrow, but United odds have now dropped to 10/1, making it suddenly enter into "doable" territory. Three seasons ago, I placed a similar bet on this derby, with similar odds. I feel the time has come for a repeat. No Hojlund, but Rashford needs to reboot his boots, Ten Hag needs this win. So why not?

100 units at Sportsbet on United to WIN vs City @10.90. Other odds: 10. Units advantage: 90

Running advantage after 72 bets: +7263 (+90)
All-time cumulative: +97,133
Running units after 71 bets (5W|66L): -2792 (-200)

buwaytress

legendary

Activity: 2758

Merit: 3408

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I really like tonight's game. Arsenal have been absolutely flying but they had a stifling time in Porto, failing to register a single shot on target against a team well behind the best two in Portugal.

Newcastle, on the other hand, have been finding life hard in the Prem League but are not short of goals, 15 goals in the past 5 league games, including luminaries like City and Villa. Arsenal have 21 in the same timeframe, vs Liverpool and Hammers, so on paper, much better. But the Super Boost on Sportsbet (every Newcastle game) makes this impossible not to back.

Also, being an idiot, I have to take Blades vs Wolves, and acca that against Liverpool in tomorrow's EFL cup final. Without further ado, 100 units at Sportsbet on each:

Newcastle to WIN vs Arsenal @9.29. Other odds: 8.40. Bet ID: 65da1861c2ff4000016fbe87
Sheffield Utd and Liverpool to WIN vs Wolves and Chelsea respectively @16.11. Other odds: 15.20. Bet ID: 65da18d3c2ff400001449aa3
Units advantage: 198

Running advantage after 71 bets: +7173 (+160)
All-time cumulative: +97,043
Running units after 69 bets (5W|64L): -2592 (-100)

buwaytress

legendary

Activity: 2758

Merit: 3408

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Atletico, what a dud.

And duds lead us to tonight's pick of the crop. Mainz lost at sea, with their hopes flickering away, travel to supreme Leverkusen, who are on an incredible unbeaten streak. But streaks must end, and they can actually afford to lose tonight, so we hail the spirits of upsets and throw the dice tonight. I cheated a little as I placed this bet with a Liverpool acca to boost it to 135/10 but I'll put the original odds I got.

So much money on Leverkusen odds slipped below 10/1.

100 units at Sportsbet on Mains 05 to WIN vs Bayer Leverkusen @11.50. Other odds: 9.90. Units advantage: 160
Bet ID: 65d4a155c2ff400001a1c444

Running advantage after 69 bets: +7173 (+160)
All-time cumulative: +97,043
Running units after 68 bets (5W|63L): -2492 (-200)

buwaytress

legendary

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Merit: 3408

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While we're losing big time this season, it is a nice idea to pour some more fuel over the fire, yes? And there are several options tonight, but let's add in a silly lose money bet on Atletico to come away with a win against Inter. Bookies mark them as decent underdogs, but with Morata back and Griezmann, even Gimenez back playing, I don't see why not? But because we need to catch up, let's be naughty and add Liverpool (tomorrow) to the mix.

200 units on Atletico to WIN vs Inter + Liverpool to WIN vs Luton @6.53. Other odds: 6.30. Units advantage: 46
Bet ID: 65d4a108c2ff40000173a50e

Running advantage after 68 bets: +7013 (+46)
All-time cumulative: +96,883
Running units after 66 bets (5W|61L): -2292 ()

buwaytress

legendary

Activity: 2758

Merit: 3408

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Cry me a river for Rodri, who stole in and retrieved a point from Chelski. And PSG seem to be benefitting from wantaway Mbappe, oh well =)

Still, Brentford gave plenty of problems to Liverpool, as usual, and despite the huge scoreline, it's important to point out Liverpool scored against the run of play, and capitalised on big mistakes the Bees don't usually make. You know which other team really gets bothered by the way Brentford play? City.

So without further ado,

100 units at Sportsbet on Brentford to WIN vs Man City @16.95. Other odds: 14.00. Units advantage: +295
Bet ID: 65d25e84c2ff4000013facb2

Running advantage after 67 bets: +6967 (+295)
All-time cumulative: +96,837
Running units after 66 bets (5W|61L): -2292 (-200)

Topic: Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +36315 units (Read 38840 times)