Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +36315 units

KTChampions

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Hmmm....

City have now lost three games in a row, why did you stop betting exactly during this period? Cry

By the way, purely hypothetical question: City's next game against Brighton is priced at 1.76. Isn't that easy money? City can't drop points 4 times in a row I suppose. Even the super-reliable City double chance gives a solid +22%. What do you think?

buwaytress

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Well, it must be said, I know how to pick them. When they win, and when they lose badly. Common sense tells me to call it quits and wait for club football, but one cannot ignore the Bolivian dilemma in World Cup qualification.

They must lost -- they're up against Argentina in imperious form (despite the last result). They want to rely on the impossible air of their stadium to snatch points, but without that "advantage", logic dictates they will only spoil for a draw. But the odds make me weak at the knees, so we go.

100 units on Bolivia to WIN vs Argentina @18.66. Other odds: 17.50. Units advantage: 166

Running advantage after 35 bets: +2053 (+166)
All-time cumulative: +100,487
Running units after 34 bets (3W|31L): +664 (-100)

buwaytress

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^ Probably not, actually (I don't remember but memory seems to suggest England were heavy favourites. I will do one last Nations League bet, and then hopefully return in time for Conmebol action. Australia to beat Japan today also tempted me but Japan are SO good, 8/1 Australia is not value enough IMO.

In which case, I'll throw in a last ditch bet against Italy. They had a great game vs Belgium, and then imploded. Could we see Israel take a similar approach AND win? I say why not?

100 units at Sportsbet on Israel to WIN vs Italy @12.77. Other odds: 12.20. Units advantage: 57

Running advantage after 34 bets: +1887 (+57)
All-time cumulative: +100,321
Running units after 33 bets (3W|30L): +764 (-100)

KTChampions

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Quote from: buwaytress on October 11, 2024, 12:36:11 PM

That was a blowout. At one point, 2 goals up, Kazakhstan didn't even have a single attempt on or off target and Austria had about 20 haha. Why we didn't go for England instead, I'll have to soul search to answer!

We'll go for something a little simpler and less ambitious today as this is the one that makes the most sense. Albania have a decent past record, drawing Croatia, beating Ukraine, and losing narrowly to Italy and Spain, while Czech Republic barely escaped Georgia with a point after losing to them.

So 100 units at Sportsbet on Albania to WIN vs Czech Republic @7.42. Other odds:6.80. Unit advantage: 62

Running advantage after 33 bets: +1830 (+62)
All-time cumulative: +100,264
Running units after 32 bets (3W|29L): +864 (-100)

A bet on Greece versus England seems lucrative in retrospect, but were the odds really good?
In general, betting on underdogs in the Nations League is what should work, no one cares about this tournament. And after this break, there will also be increased randomness in national championships, but I am not happy about it there (since multi-bets will burn out even because of top clubs) Grin

buwaytress

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That was a blowout. At one point, 2 goals up, Kazakhstan didn't even have a single attempt on or off target and Austria had about 20 haha. Why we didn't go for England instead, I'll have to soul search to answer!

We'll go for something a little simpler and less ambitious today as this is the one that makes the most sense. Albania have a decent past record, drawing Croatia, beating Ukraine, and losing narrowly to Italy and Spain, while Czech Republic barely escaped Georgia with a point after losing to them.

So 100 units at Sportsbet on Albania to WIN vs Czech Republic @7.42. Other odds:6.80. Unit advantage: 62

Running advantage after 33 bets: +1830 (+62)
All-time cumulative: +100,264
Running units after 32 bets (3W|29L): +864 (-100)

buwaytress

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^ Sorry I missed your comment, or I'd have remembered to put in a bet or two against United (would have lost, they didn't lose their last two games, but might as well have honestly!) and tying down a couple of upsets that also didn't happen.

Tennis would have been something sweet today in Shanghai, but let's see if my Kazakh lucky charm turns up tonight eh?

100 units on Kazakhstan to WIN vs Austria @15.50. Other odds: 14.80. Units advantage: 70

Running advantage after 32 bets: +1768 (+70)
All-time cumulative: +100,202
Running units after 31 bets (3W|29L): +964 (-200)

KTChampions

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Quote from: buwaytress on October 01, 2024, 10:54:40 AM

There's not much to look at despite all the games going on, but I'm definitely throwing a punt tomorrow against Barca~

Hehe, today I found a few free bets (I only know the source of one free bet haha) and decided to make a few bold bets.
I also think that Barcelona is a vulnerable target, but I took a double chance for Young Boys with a coefficient of 9.0, it is too much to expect a victory here (in the sense that this was one of the outcomes in the multi bet).
And it also seemed to me that Arsenal and especially Bayer are overrated, so I chose victories for PSG and Milan.

buwaytress

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There's not much to look at despite all the games going on, but I'm definitely throwing a punt tomorrow against Barca, but first, we got to take care of tonight and based on little more than emotion and some anectodal fan evidence, Monaco are ripe for punishing.

It's barely 5/1 but let's throw in some unnecessary Liverpool action, shan't we?

100 units at Sportsbet on Liverpool to win next 2 games (Bologna and Palace), and Dinamo Zagreb to WIN vs Monaco @8,74. Other odds: 8.35. Units advantage: 39

Running advantage after 30 bets: +1608 (+39)
All-time cumulative: +100,042
Running units after 29 bets (3W|26L): +1164 (-100)

==

Edit: It's a half hour to kickoff, and Barca are vulnerable without their main keeper. The team is irresistible, let's be fair, so this is a dumb bet, but with odds over 20/1, it would be a crime for me to ignore. Young Boys will be eager to defend and hit on the counter, and we know Barca are always going to allow some of that.

Implied probability on every site I've checked is 91-92% -- so in any case this makes 22/1 a value bet Wink

100 units at Sportsbet on Young Boys to WIN vs Barcelona @22.40. Other odds: 21.50. Units advantage: 90

Running advantage after 31 bets: +1698 (+90)
All-time cumulative: +100,132
Running units after 29 bets (3W|27L): +1164

buwaytress

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^ Thank you! Back in the black indeed, and no, Como was inspired -- but the odds should really have been higher, so it was good to have another multiplier. Last night didn't come close, but we'll do one last Italia pick. This time, we go for Napoli, who are also a shadow of themselves and must juggle an attempted resurgence Serie A, and will see this as a distraction. Palermo know this, and will hope to defend to the hilt, and the odds aren't too shabby. Note that Napoli had to progress via penalties against another Serie B team (Moderna).

100 units at Sportsbet on Palermo to WIN vs Napoli @11.7. Other odds: 11.25. Units advantage: 45

Running advantage after 29 bets: +1569 (+45)
All-time cumulative: +100,003
Running units after 28 bets (3W|25L): +1264 (-100)

KTChampions

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Quote from: buwaytress on September 25, 2024, 08:20:41 AM

Hope someone followed those delicious Italian combo wins -- a "sad" story for me is that when I checked my results, discovered had actually bet singles, instead of acca. Rushed bet, don't know how it happened, usually the book can change from acca to single when selecting >2 matches, but I usually notice!

Now, lightning must strike twice and we must pay attention to Coppa results. I know I usually wait a full day before a new bet, but hey, let's not wait to create a new record!

100 units on Salernitana and Sampdoria to WIN @27.72. Other odds: 25.50. Units advantage: 222

Running advantage after 28 bets: +1524 (+222)
All-time cumulative: +99,958
Running units after 27 bets (3W|24L): +1364 (+2524)

Wow! X26 is super good for acca with 2 outcomes, gratz!
It's unfortunate that you made a mistake in the actual bet, but it doesn't matter for the thread. You're back in the black Cool

Honestly, I would never place a money bet on Como against home Atalanta Grin

It was a real epiphany that you were attracted to this outcome.

buwaytress

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Hope someone followed those delicious Italian combo wins -- a "sad" story for me is that when I checked my results, discovered had actually bet singles, instead of acca. Rushed bet, don't know how it happened, usually the book can change from acca to single when selecting >2 matches, but I usually notice!

Now, lightning must strike twice and we must pay attention to Coppa results. I know I usually wait a full day before a new bet, but hey, let's not wait to create a new record!

100 units on Salernitana and Sampdoria to WIN @27.72. Other odds: 25.50. Units advantage: 222

Running advantage after 28 bets: +1524 (+222)
All-time cumulative: +99,958
Running units after 27 bets (3W|24L): +1364 (+2524)

buwaytress

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^ The results prove you right, and you're not wrong either way -- Athletic are and have been a very good team at home, but I was counting on Celta's resurgence. They're quite exciting to watch now, and I would pick them many more times this season for good value wins away. Hopefully!

Meanwhile, we turn to Italy for tonight's pick. Como yet to win, and Atalanta averaging as many goals as they concede (more than Como actually!), and also quite a unique project to consider. I'm liking the odds here, but because I also like Sassuolo cup odds, let's go for a couple upset!

100 units at Sportsbet on Como and Sassuolo to win @26.24. Other odds: 25.00. Units advantage: 124

Running advantage after 27 bets: +1302 (+24)
All-time cumulative: +99,736
Running units after 26 bets (2W|24L): -1160 (-100)

KTChampions

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Quote from: buwaytress on September 22, 2024, 05:22:23 AM

~
Arsenal today at 5/1 vs City normally whets my appetite, but they are missing a player I feel has been crucial, so I almost want to say the value in this game is gone. Haaland and KdB fit at home should get 8/1 at least from a battered Arsenal squad who hasn't really been playing well.

Instead, I think Celta Vigo 5/1 away to Athletic is the real deal, so let's, for a change, pad a pretty decent 18/10 value City up on that upset.

100 units at Sportsbet on City and Celta to WIN @9.01. Other odds: 8.77. Units advantage: 24

Running advantage after 26 bets: +1302 (+24)
All-time cumulative: +99,736
Running units after 25 bets (2W|23L): -1060 (-100)

Surprisingly, Nottingham are still unbeaten )
As for the bet on Arsenal, it was definitely a value bet, just a few seconds were not enough to win. But for you as a Liverpool fan draw probably still a good result Wink

I'm not sure that the bet on Celta was justified (easy to say after the game heh), Athletic in my opinion are very strong and stable.

buwaytress

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Another utterly misplaced bet apparently in UCL. Either Celtic are better than I think or Bratislava were flattering to deceive. No matter.

Arsenal today at 5/1 vs City normally whets my appetite, but they are missing a player I feel has been crucial, so I almost want to say the value in this game is gone. Haaland and KdB fit at home should get 8/1 at least from a battered Arsenal squad who hasn't really been playing well.

Instead, I think Celta Vigo 5/1 away to Athletic is the real deal, so let's, for a change, pad a pretty decent 18/10 value City up on that upset.

100 units at Sportsbet on City and Celta to WIN @9.01. Other odds: 8.77. Units advantage: 24

Running advantage after 26 bets: +1302 (+24)
All-time cumulative: +99,736
Running units after 25 bets (2W|23L): -1060 (-100)

buwaytress

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OK, so I misjudged Juventus. Very badly. We also failed with Stuttgart v Real, but that was quite literally a toin coss up until after the equaliser... But let's do it again with Celtic, sure they're Scottish champions but Bratislava are at least as tenacious. Surely it's a proper underdog bet?

100 units at Sportsbet on Slovan Bratislava to WIN vs Celtic @14.38. Other odds: 13.60. Units advantage: 78

Running advantage after 25 bets: +1278 (+78)
All-time cumulative: +99,712
Running units after 24 bets (2W|22L): -960 (-200)

Mis-added a win in the final numbers two posts above, corrected here.

buwaytress

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OK, I had to do it last minute live! PSV have carried on where they left off last season in Eredivisie while Juventus are... neither here nor there. Yes, Dutch league can't compare to Serie A but we have to go somewhere to hunt for value at 5/1 is value to me!

Let's bet against two Italians, shall we?

100 units at Sportsbet on [center=https://sportsbet.io/sharebetslip/66e9acb95c11e50026b77d5b]Liverpool and PSV to WIN vs Milan/Juventus @8.45[/center]. Other odds: 8.00. Units advantage: 45

Running advantage after 24 bets: +1200 (+45)
All-time cumulative: +99,634
Running units after 22 bets (3W|20L): -760 (-100)

Quote from: KTChampions on September 15, 2024, 05:01:24 PM

Holland is a bastard who burned me in fantasy league (I didn't pick him in the early rounds), when will he stop?
As for Liverpool, I have long criticised you for being biased, but here even 12.0 was not good compensation for betting against Liverpool. This result came out of nowhere, neither the international break, nor the new manager nor the "strong new Nottingham" can justify it.

Yeah, before the game, they were relegation strugglers, and Liverpool were red hot, and this was Anfield. It should have been 20/1, eh? Thank you for helping justify my bias against Liverpool Wink

Makes me feel not so bad about myself.

KTChampions

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Quote from: buwaytress on September 15, 2024, 11:35:57 AM

Brentford proved tough but Haaland carried City, so we missed out. We also missed out on a similar 12/1 Nott Forest upset against Liverpool, but I never bet against Liverpool, and not at Anfield. Oh well =)
~

Holland is a bastard who burned me in fantasy league (I didn't pick him in the early rounds), when will he stop?
As for Liverpool, I have long criticised you for being biased, but here even 12.0 was not good compensation for betting against Liverpool. This result came out of nowhere, neither the international break, nor the new manager nor the "strong new Nottingham" can justify it.

buwaytress

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Brentford proved tough but Haaland carried City, so we missed out. We also missed out on a similar 12/1 Nott Forest upset against Liverpool, but I never bet against Liverpool, and not at Anfield. Oh well =)

An early bet today because I like the Palmeiras boost (they host second-to-bottom club) and it makes a pretty proposition for Real Madrid to lose -- yes it's a home game and it is Stuttgart, but the Germans have been pretty impressive after staving off relegation, in my opinion, while Real are a bit reliant on Vinicius and Mbappe is throwing a minor spanner into the works. I wonder if German chaos could nick a win? First game of Champions League, why not?

100 units on Palmeiras and Stuttgart to WIN @12.45. Other odds: 11.50. Units advantage: 95

Running advantage after 23 bets: +1155 (+95)
All-time cumulative: +99,589
Running units after 22 bets (3W|20L): -760 (-100)

buwaytress

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Actually Sudan came close to winning after equalising, but their adventures up front cost them another goal. So we chalk down another couple of losses before returning to my favourite hunting ground -- Etihad. This weekend. A simple, Brentford smash and grab win, anyone?

100 units at Sportsbet on Brentford to WIN vs Man City @13.31. Other odds: 12.50
Units advantage: 81

Running advantage after 22 bets: +1060 (+81)
All-time cumulative: +99,494
Running units after 21 bets (2W|19L): -660 (-200)

buwaytress

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Horrible outcome, and there was no chance at all. Regret not picking Georgia but odds were no longer value. Instead we pick what is perhaps my final Nations League game for this period. Let's also put in an AFCON qualifier. Both tough away games, but in my opinion, winnable.

100 units each at Sportsbet on:

Kazakhstan to WIN vs Slovenia @9.77. Other odds: 9.20.
Sudan to WIN vs Angola @7.40. Other odds: Same
Units advantage: 57

Running advantage after 21 bets: +979 (+57)
All-time cumulative: +99,413
Running units after 19 bets (2W|17L): -460 (-100)

Topic: Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +36315 units (Read 39991 times)