Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +36315 units - page 2.

buwaytress

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Quote from: KTChampions on February 16, 2024, 03:35:08 PM

Nice bet! I don?t see anything impossible for it to come true - Inter already play in their own league and a match or two doesn?t really mean anything to them. Salernitana still have a theoretical chance of remaining in Serie A, so why not start their rise today Roll Eyes

By the way, congratulations on your 5th winning bet. I hope this is not the last victory this season - the distance is bound to repay the debts Cool

Neither did I, but Inter turned it on, still, as you infer, it's a bet I'd take repeatedly. Thanks for the nice words, half season (less) to go, let's see if I can turn things around with... a very big value bet on Chelsea vs City AND a rare but irresistible Nantes upset against PSG, who'll be worried about Mbappe we hope Wink

Made this bets earlier, so odds may have changed but hey...

100 units each on:

Chelsea to WIN vs Man City @8.26. Other odds: 7.60. Bet ID: 65d0c097c2ff40000172ac8b
Nantes to WIN vs PSG @7.60. Other odds: 7.40. Bet ID: 65d0c109c2ff4000010060ea
Units advantage: +86

Running advantage after 66 bets: +6672 (+86)
All-time cumulative: +96,542
Running units after 64 bets (5W|59L): -2092 (-100)

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KTChampions

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Quote from: buwaytress on February 16, 2024, 07:37:19 AM

That was a shitty bet, but we shrug it off and turn our eyes instead to an impossible task. Inter to lose at home to the bottom team. I always like these kinds of bet, simply because that narrative has turned out to be true far too often than it should in the big leagues.

Odds are not as good as they should be, but bookies have been adjusting down all these years, but we push on.

Salernitana to WIN vs Inter @19.70. Other odds: 18.50. Units advantage: +120
Bet ID: 65cf3c12c2ff400001edb69b

Running advantage after 64 bets: +6586 (+120)
All-time cumulative: +96,456
Running units after 63 bets (5W|58L): -1992 (-100)

Nice bet! I don’t see anything impossible for it to come true - Inter already play in their own league and a match or two doesn’t really mean anything to them. Salernitana still have a theoretical chance of remaining in Serie A, so why not start their rise today Roll Eyes

By the way, congratulations on your 5th winning bet. I hope this is not the last victory this season - the distance is bound to repay the debts Cool

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That was a shitty bet, but we shrug it off and turn our eyes instead to an impossible task. Inter to lose at home to the bottom team. I always like these kinds of bet, simply because that narrative has turned out to be true far too often than it should in the big leagues.

Odds are not as good as they should be, but bookies have been adjusting down all these years, but we push on.

Salernitana to WIN vs Inter @19.70. Other odds: 18.50. Units advantage: +120
Bet ID: 65cf3c12c2ff400001edb69b

Running advantage after 64 bets: +6586 (+120)
All-time cumulative: +96,456
Running units after 63 bets (5W|58L): -1992 (-100)

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I promise, this isn't about hating Man City, but it's about respecting the fact that a tiny club like Copenhagen have only ever lost twice on home ground in 16 Champions League games. The smarter play is a double chance, but this thread has rarely been smart this season, haha.

So a simple ML we go, plus, they know they have no chance away, so they will look to score. You never know when Haaland/KdB have a double whammy day off too, no?

100 units at Sportsbet on Copenhagen to WIN vs Man City @12.55. Other odds: 12. Units advantage: 55
Bet ID: 65cb3350c2ff400001e4ef26

Running advantage after 63 bets: +6586 (+55)
All-time cumulative: +96,456
Running units after 62 bets (5W|57L): -1892 (-100)

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Quote from: 1miau on February 07, 2024, 07:38:35 PM

Nice one.

If someone told me that teams like Japan, South Korea or Australia will be out and teams like Jordan and Qatar (remember how awful they played for World Cup last year) are competing for the final, I would very likely not believe it.
Not actively following this event, so my impression might be a bit off, considering Jordan also clearly won from a statistics perspective, not just from luck to score a silly goal / bad luck for South Korea to waste many opportunities but Jordan played well and South Korea really struggled.

And now, we even get a final Jordan vs. Qatar. Cheesy

Same. The thing is, even in qualifiers Jordan were their usual inconsistent self, while Qatar were very quickly losing their charm from the last Asia Cup -- just somehow Moez found a way to recapture his form at the right moment.

Jordan found a lot of confidence against a side that was really playing against their strength (Klinsmass effect). Nice win in the end, but shame I wasted it with the huge Liverpool outlay before that.

Everton, though, is our "natural" pick up next against my favourite team to bet against, Citeh. No explanation needed other than Everton are surely better than 10/1?

100 units at Sportsbet on Everton to WIN vs Man City @14.20. Other odds: 13.40. Units advantage: 80
Bet ID: 65c4dee1c2ff4000010ef8c1

Running advantage after 62 bets: +6531 (+80)
All-time cumulative: +96,401
Running units after 61 bets (5W|56L): -1792 (+600)

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Quote from: buwaytress on February 06, 2024, 12:02:42 PM

100 units at Sportsbet on Jordan to WIN vs South Korea @7.00. Other odds: 6.68. Units advantage: 32
Bet ID: 65c255fbc2ff4000017c96c7

Running advantage after 61 bets: +6451 (+32)
All-time cumulative: +96,321
Running units after 60 bets (4W|56L): -2392 (-500)

Nice one.

If someone told me that teams like Japan, South Korea or Australia will be out and teams like Jordan and Qatar (remember how awful they played for World Cup last year) are competing for the final, I would very likely not believe it.
Not actively following this event, so my impression might be a bit off, considering Jordan also clearly won from a statistics perspective, not just from luck to score a silly goal / bad luck for South Korea to waste many opportunities but Jordan played well and South Korea really struggled.

And now, we even get a final Jordan vs. Qatar. Cheesy

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Quote from: Trofo on February 06, 2024, 12:36:36 PM

Very smart play, seen that same stats on half time and was thinking the same. Unfortunately all my money was already tied so I did not pull the trigger this time around.

Jordan 2:0 up but considering how Korea comes alive after min 90, maybe a cash out towards the end of the game?

Yeah, nice win and the second half was almost like first half except final 10 minutes when South Korea looked slightly more dangerous. AFC edition this time has rewarded all the bold teams. Jordan, Tajikistan, especially, all playing like Morocco in WC. I should note that South Korea almost losing to Malaysia was a sign of things to come. I expected Msia to get thrashed but they outplayed the Koreans more than they deserved. Thailand and Indonesia also displayed some brave football, but quality was just lacking.

Qatar is the underdog today, btw, match already underway and the only thing preventing me from adding them to this thread (I have a freebet on them) is the poor-value 5/1 odds -- if it gets to HT on a draw and Qatar has more chances than Iran (and equalise the early goal haha), I would definitely take 5/1. But that's not going to be posted in this thread unless it's another 7/1 -- which bookies won't adjust, I'm sure, judging from yesterday's experience.

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Quote from: buwaytress on February 06, 2024, 12:02:42 PM

Now I said to stay away for a while but you've to see the Jordan-S Korea match -- now at half time -- to understand why one simply has to follow the tide. 5 saves from the Korean keeper, while his team has managed zero shots. Media has accused Klinsmann of turning S Korea into a zombie team with their tepid performances but I know he feels his team has the best clinical shooters for penalties and doesn't want them to tire like the Japanese.

But Jordan need to simply keep the pressure on and nick a goal. HT odds are 7/1 -- not reflective of the play, so I'm taking it.

Very smart play, seen that same stats on half time and was thinking the same. Unfortunately all my money was already tied so I did not pull the trigger this time around.

Jordan 2:0 up but considering how Korea comes alive after min 90, maybe a cash out towards the end of the game?

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Now I said to stay away for a while but you've to see the Jordan-S Korea match -- now at half time -- to understand why one simply has to follow the tide. 5 saves from the Korean keeper, while his team has managed zero shots. Media has accused Klinsmann of turning S Korea into a zombie team with their tepid performances but I know he feels his team has the best clinical shooters for penalties and doesn't want them to tire like the Japanese.

But Jordan need to simply keep the pressure on and nick a goal. HT odds are 7/1 -- not reflective of the play, so I'm taking it.

100 units at Sportsbet on Jordan to WIN vs South Korea @7.00. Other odds: 6.68. Units advantage: 32
Bet ID: 65c255fbc2ff4000017c96c7

Running advantage after 61 bets: +6451 (+32)
All-time cumulative: +96,321
Running units after 60 bets (4W|56L): -2392 (-500)

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Quote from: KTChampions on February 02, 2024, 02:54:21 PM

I agree about City, the odds for Brentford to win at 7 is just ridiculous. The team literally scores a point per game on average and they are so greedy not to give odds of 10+? Huh

I'm not sure about betting on Liverpool vs Arsenal away, because Arsenal are also good. I think here you are acting as a fan and not as a bettor Wink

The most important thing is that the game does not end in a draw (in favor of City).

Yeah, bookie greed, and I'm surprised as the markets must be so lopsided now on City to win and inch closer to the top with games in hand. Full strength squad. And yet the odds aren't really dropping? I still put some freebet money on Brentford, for a boosted odds of just about 83/10.

Impossible to find value these days really with City.

You were right in the end, as were the oddsmakers. Arsenal were the better team, fully deserved win. I put myself in the hole with that one didn't I?

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Quote from: buwaytress on February 02, 2024, 12:49:56 PM

That did not go wellm but for the odds, I'd take it again and again. Next up for City isn't one I'll take though, only 7/1 for a team not even in the top half? No thanks.

Liverpool, however, face Arsenal once more as the underdogs. It was a beautiful win last time out with over 4/1 odds. Tomorrow it's only 3/1 but we actually feature a stronger lineup so maybe that explains the odds.

I'm still confident of the win and 3/1+ is value so let's try and get Liverpool get us over the line again?

500 units on Liverpool to WIN vs Arsenal @3.26. Other odds: 3.1.
Units advantage: 75
Bet ID: 65bd1b18c2ff40000130efd0

Running advantage after 60 bets: +6419 (+75)
All-time cumulative: +96,289
Running units after 59 bets (4W|55L): -1892 (-100)

I agree about City, the odds for Brentford to win at 7 is just ridiculous. The team literally scores a point per game on average and they are so greedy not to give odds of 10+? Huh

I'm not sure about betting on Liverpool vs Arsenal away, because Arsenal are also good. I think here you are acting as a fan and not as a bettor Wink

The most important thing is that the game does not end in a draw (in favor of City).

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That did not go wellm but for the odds, I'd take it again and again. Next up for City isn't one I'll take though, only 7/1 for a team not even in the top half? No thanks.

Liverpool, however, face Arsenal once more as the underdogs. It was a beautiful win last time out with over 4/1 odds. Tomorrow it's only 3/1 but we actually feature a stronger lineup so maybe that explains the odds.

I'm still confident of the win and 3/1+ is value so let's try and get Liverpool get us over the line again?

500 units on Liverpool to WIN vs Arsenal @3.26. Other odds: 3.1.
Units advantage: 75
Bet ID: 65bd1b18c2ff40000130efd0

Running advantage after 60 bets: +6419 (+75)
All-time cumulative: +96,289
Running units after 59 bets (4W|55L): -1892 (-100)

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We return to our old hunting grounds. City are back at their best -- and with that, the odds are back above 15/1. Burnley will be lucky to come away with a point, but since we're interested in blips, we're going to have to take this bet tonight, aren't we?

Got to make full use of Haaland's absence!

Don't forget we also had this bet, win: 400 units at Sportsbet on Liverpool to WIN vs Arsenal and Bournemouth @5.43. Other odds: 5.20.

100 units at Sportsbet on Burnely to WIN vs City @23.00. Other odds: 21.
Bet ID: 65ba69f1c2ff400001533143
Units advantage: 200

Running advantage after 59 bets: +6344 (+200)
All-time cumulative: +96,214
Running units after 58 bets (4W|54L): -1792 (-100 + 1720)

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Quote from: arallmuus on January 08, 2024, 06:12:18 PM

Well Im glad that Manchester United didnt actually lose to Wigan because it would make my day bad for the rest of the week but honestly 0-2 against Wigan while Ten Hag uses his main squad is not really what I expected. On top of that, it was a goal from Dalot and a penalty from Bruno. I was kinda expecting Holjund, Garnacho or Rashford to score today

I hate to say this but Manchester United really need to patch up the frontline otherwise I dont see how we'll make it to top 4 by the end of the season

I get how you feel. My team not winning generally sets my tone for the rest of the week. It's not that bad as I say but a great win somehow ensures I wake up on the right side of bed.

Rashford assisted, so don't feel too bad. Garnacho really did need to find better passes, though, Hojlund deserves better service if he is to at least continue his good cup scoring runs. And that means... playing Sancho-quality players (but he's off now isn't he?).

Team needs an overhaul, not so much of personnel but mentality. That's all. Ten Hag underestimated the English game, Ajax had fun toying with Eredivisie but you need mental strength, fearlessness and brute force to augment talent on English pitches.

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Quote from: buwaytress on January 08, 2024, 12:11:03 PM

For today, we go easy, Wigan should lose but United are in fear zone, they simply can't fail. That produces miracles. It's ridiculous the odds but I take it anyway!

100 units at Sportsbet on Wigan to beat United @13.65. Other odds: 12.90. Units advantage: 75

Well Im glad that Manchester United didnt actually lose to Wigan because it would make my day bad for the rest of the week but honestly 0-2 against Wigan while Ten Hag uses his main squad is not really what I expected. On top of that, it was a goal from Dalot and a penalty from Bruno. I was kinda expecting Holjund, Garnacho or Rashford to score today

I hate to say this but Manchester United really need to patch up the frontline otherwise I dont see how we'll make it to top 4 by the end of the season

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For today, we go easy, Wigan should lose but United are in fear zone, they simply can't fail. That produces miracles. It's ridiculous the odds but I take it anyway!

100 units at Sportsbet on Wigan to beat United @13.65. Other odds: 12.90. Units advantage: 75

Running advantage after 58 bets: +6144 (+75)
All-time cumulative: +96,014
Running units after 56 bets (3W|53L): -3412 ()

Quote from: KTChampions on January 07, 2024, 03:39:09 PM

I hope I don't spoil luck by saying that most of the "work" here has already been done

In my opinion it is quite strange that Liverpool were rated so low given their historical ability to play well in cups, so it was definitely a value bet even despite the fact that Arsenal was catastrophically unlucky with the realisation of scoring chances and if Havertz had been able to score first, it is unclear how the game would have turned out.

That's okay. Even if I lose, I'll be fine somewhat. It's definitely a strange one, 33/10 was an overestimation of Liverpool playing only Konate in recognised defence position. Arsenal actually had a 2.97 xG but failed to score -- story of their season but we capitalise on poor finishing. I couldn't be happier.

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Quote from: buwaytress on January 06, 2024, 05:32:55 PM

So that didn't happen for either pick (but hey, it came close enough, especially with Verona until they got a man sent off).

Here's something different: Liverpool without Salah are fair underdogs vs Arsenal tomorrow but I still think they're worth it at 35/10. It's not quite my kind of odds but if we pin on their next game vs Bournemouth, we have a solid result. Shall we up the ante on this?

400 units at Sportsbet on Liverpool to WIN vs Arsenal and Bournemouth @5.43. Other odds: 5.20. Units advantage: 92
Bet ID: 659823934411880001db5086

Running advantage after 57 bets: +6069 (+92)
All-time cumulative: +95,939
Running units after 56 bets (3W|53L): -3412 (-200)

I hope I don't spoil luck by saying that most of the "work" here has already been done

In my opinion it is quite strange that Liverpool were rated so low given their historical ability to play well in cups, so it was definitely a value bet even despite the fact that Arsenal was catastrophically unlucky with the realisation of scoring chances and if Havertz had been able to score first, it is unclear how the game would have turned out.

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So that didn't happen for either pick (but hey, it came close enough, especially with Verona until they got a man sent off).

Here's something different: Liverpool without Salah are fair underdogs vs Arsenal tomorrow but I still think they're worth it at 35/10. It's not quite my kind of odds but if we pin on their next game vs Bournemouth, we have a solid result. Shall we up the ante on this?

400 units at Sportsbet on Liverpool to WIN vs Arsenal and Bournemouth @5.43. Other odds: 5.20. Units advantage: 92
Bet ID: 659823934411880001db5086

Running advantage after 57 bets: +6069 (+92)
All-time cumulative: +95,939
Running units after 56 bets (3W|53L): -3412 (-200)

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Two bets here today. First to London where I'm hoping some Fulham craziness returns in the FA Cup 3rd round, you know there are always upsets and while the forward line are clicking for the Cottagers, I like the odds of an upset. Meanwhile, Inter take on Verona tomorrow and I do want them to stutter post New Year, why not?

100 units each at Sportsbet on:
Rotherham Utd to WIN vs Fulham @13.00. Other odds: 12.5. Bet ID: 659823c344118800013e9747
Verona to WIN vs Inter @18.00. Other odds: 17.2. Bet ID: 659824454411880001963f61
Units advantage: 130

Running advantage after 56 bets: +5977 (+130)
All-time cumulative: +95,847
Running units after 54 bets (3W|51L): -3212 (-100)

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Right, no luck in French cup so I'm throwing my hat into Italia tonight. Juventus are quietly plodding along, yes behind Inter but they will be happy they're under the radar and without pressure. Could that also mean an early exit in Coppa?

100 units at Sportsbet on Salernitana to WIN vs Juventus @13.10. Other odds: 12.
Units advantage: 110
Bet ID: 6596cb2a4411880001d3e56f

Running advantage after 54 bets: +5847 (+1100)
All-time cumulative: +95,717
Running units after 53 bets (3W|50L): -3112 (-100)

Topic: Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +36315 units - page 2. (Read 38840 times)