^ Yeah, complete alignment in our estimation -- I really like the terms you use, bookmaker greed. Perhaps inaccurate technically but from a different perspective of economics, rational. City looked good from the reports but I still think the unknown factors of teams you've never played, particularly with a team still "immature" in ex-Europe competition, it was a great bet to take regardless of the outcome.
I'll take a break until the weekend but yes, this season's picks will likely see me in the red. I want to offer an excuse that I didn't include some great winners I did have, including specials, etc. But this thread must retain its integrity and count only bets I actually suggested here.
All good things must come to an end, and all strategies fail, but I'm happy to continue showing the true purpose: value. Thank you for following
I could be wrong, but it seems to me that in previous seasons you had a much larger number of bets, so those results can be considered more relevant than the current ones (by the way, I also remember there were long periods of 20+ games without a single victory). When playing with large odds, you need to check many outcomes to know the strength of the strategy, so stop being lazy and register more bets here
As for strategies “in general”, then probably yes, most likely they all die without exception - either the market becomes more efficient (everyone switches to these strategies and they lose their meaning simply for economic reasons) or bookmakers adapt to them. As far as I know, in different periods the value shifted from bets with low odds to bets with high odds and vice versa. I’m afraid that now we live in the conditions of neural networks, big data that probably covers everything that can be covered in information terms and the accuracy of bookmakers is steadily increasing and it is either impossible or very difficult to find value.
But there is always the opportunity to move into such murky areas as live betting, what do you think? If I remember correctly, you were not into this type of betting (at least on an ongoing basis). I follow sporting events mainly in text form, so the quotes are always in sight, and in my opinion everything there is far from accurate on the part of the bookmakers (maybe because they mainly pay attention to the cash flow? = they simply balance between the bets that the crowd makes) .
