Topic: Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +36315 units - page 3. (Read 40105 times)

How quickly time passes! Here we are at the start of the new season, and my usual curtain raiser Community Shield starts in about 3 hours, so I make a hasty bet.

United vs City provided a nice end to last season and while the odds really aren't great, we take solace in the fact that City losses in this cup provided us nice wins in past seasons.

So 100 units at Sportsbet on United to WIN vs City @5.02. Other odds 4.95.
Units advantage: 7

Running advantage after 1 bet: +7
All-time cumulative: +98,431

Just to update the end of 23/24 betting season. As expected, it was my worst season since starting the thread, it would have been nice to try and look a bit better with EURO betting but I'm going to be too busy to really look at odds and internationals are anyway weak spots for me.

So. Final season tally 2023/24. A horrid -30% loss to the bankroll. I'll be back with the English Community Shield next season (hopefully!).

Running advantage after 88 bets: +8654
All-time cumulative: +98,424
Running units after 88 bets (7W|80L): -2993

Thank you for the shout out! I will very soon end this season, as it traditionally closes out after the Champions League final. That probably deserves a bit of a bigger bet, but I'm not sure Real Madrid will let this go so easily -- the worst that can happen is a draw, and I can't bring myself to bet on a draw when a 5/1 Double Chance is the minimum to get my juices flowing.

Still, if odds bump closer to 55/10 I'll throw on a final bet.

Good luck with your thread! I'll be sure to support it -- live betting would be my ideal market if I were 15 years younger, single, and richer...

It's good to see that you remembered to bet against City and got double the pleasure of their defeat 
I hope next season you will return to more bets and presumably profit. And if I succeed (unfortunately, too many things have to happen for this to actually happen) I will also start my thread about bets. I'm currently thinking about live betting and handicap betting.

Forgot to update yesterday's post, so here are the details:

200 units on United to WIN vs City @9.18. Other odds at the time were 9.00 but if you actually bet on the match just before kickoff, you would have had a sweet 9.50 boosted odds from Sportsbet =)
Units advantage: 36
Bet ID: 664616aa438f8a0001d206de

So I notch a win, but let's go nice and easy on tonight

Shit, I'm late. Thought I would get home in time but not.

Still 0-0 now so take a live bet, you will probably get even better odds. But for now 200 units on Manchester United to WIN vs City at over 9/1. I'll edit this post later with full deets.

Couldn't agree more. If the odds weren't so shit on City, I'd actually say bet all your Bitcoin and house on them. They have never choked in the Premier League under Pep. Ever since the title fight depended on them winning on the final day, ever since Aguerooooooo... they have won, won and won. Against far more illustrious opponents. I still can't get over them 2 goals down to Villa with 15 minutes to go, Liverpool seemed destined, and then they score 3 and make us hurt.

You're right about Palace, they are favourites against Villa for good reason, but such is the fate of Arsenal that they must somehow hope for magic from Moyes's final game. But such narratives would be legendary, and for part of that reason, I am drawn to this bet.

Damn, that one would be a proper finish to the season. There is no way it is happening since West Ham has looked bad lately and I feel City can score as many goals as they want against them.

Crystal Palace is the team in form and I am just sorry they aren't playing against City or Arsenal away this week. That would have been my long-shot punt but with a solid chance of landing.

How rare is it these days to get a 20/1+ odd game against City? They will win the treble, that is as certain as a memecoin emerging from a vile coccoon today, but I will look back fondly on a West Ham upset versus Arsenal and final day romanticism of EPL to take this bet on City to finally slip up when it matters the most. Yes, I do love spamming against City. It's just where the value is, though, isn't it?

100 unit at Sportsbet on West Ham to WIN vs Manchester City @22..40. Other odds: 21.20. Units advantage: 120

Thank you for following the thread! You may not know this but it used to be almost every other day in the first few seasons but real life has gotten to a point where I'm short on time and can't really hunt around for value...

... which brings me to the point of this thread, which is actually to look for value. Comparing odds on books, and benefitting from the extra units from a promotion or simply, on features like boosts, or just on a market that's oversized the other way. At the top of this thread you see the units count almost at 100000. An average bet here in 100 units. That's almost 100 times more value over 5 seasons of betting, if you just make sure you use the book that has the best odds. The longer the odds, the bigger the value, usually.

But to answer your questions:
- yes, the pattern is always the same.
- And yes, if I have time here for Euros, it will feature here. Traditionally, this thread season ends with Champions League final and starts with English Charity Shield.
- Pattern explained simply: Majority long odds on a single market (there's where the biggest value is, especially with price boosts). I do play around with accas but as Trofo and others have pointed out in the past, that's not my strong suit and I should stick to value underdogs.

=====

I suspect, with discipline, and a bigger sample, you generally should come out on top.

a. On anecdotal experience this season, I have done well on some bets I didn't post here -- mainly because I didn't have time, or I simply wasn't sure if I actually did snag the best odds. Saudi Arabia 22/1 during the World Cup was an example! I was too busy watching the game!

b. The evidence supporting this theory of a bigger sample is from early seasons where I probably posted almost every value bet I identified (you can refer to OP for historical results and links):
350 bets in S01 (81% profit)
435 bets in S02 (122% profit)
429 bets in S03 (101% profit)
139 bets in S04 (0.38% profit
And only 86 bets so far in this 5th season. Which will be a losing season of almost -50% of the 10,000 unit bankroll so far.

KTChampions will agree with me here, because the odds are long, if we correlate odds with probability, I should experience more wins on a larger sample, 86 bets is too small to allow for variance. So this pattern works... but only if you are diligent with studying for value and taking those value bets.

That all said, I return once more to the original purpose of the thread, which isn't about profit or loss, but about gaining value. Expressed overall by the Units Advantage tally =) A secondary purpose was to create a true "tipster" thread that not only accumulated data over years, but retained proof of the bets (sadly, most links no longer work with defunct books or expired betslips but the post itself I think is a good historical record), and tracked actual bankroll. I only ever saw tipsters with cherry-picked bets, or with win percentage -- which is absolutely useless without bankroll tracking.

Thank you for your questions, I enjoy discussions on this the way people like trading haha.

Follow buwaytress for more non-expert, amateur longshot advice

Love the bet on Spurs !

Yep I'd rather you stay with this type of betting pattern atleast until the season ends though so we could get the overall statistics from this pattern. Anyway Im just throwing this out here but are you continuing with this pattern as well after the season ends ? Euro is coming on June though so Im kinda wondering if you will stick with this on Euro

10 more minutes to go, Im still hoping that Spurs will score and only give City 1 point but heck I dont think they will be able to turn this to 2-1 because they are not Real Madrid though  

Well, I will end this season in disgrace. Losing badly and not learning my lesson.

And if you think I'll be looking to cut losses, or at least bet on good teams, you're wrong. We have Spurs, who stand in the way of City's impending title. Such a horrible team, and the odds are poor value, but let's go out with a bang of a whimper!

300 units at Sportsbet on Spurs to WIN vs City @6.99. Other odds: 6.45.
Units advantage: 162

You can't keep a good man down. And you can't keep a bad gambler away. It's my worst season by far, and while common wisdom says to quit while not so far behind, we might as well continue in the fashion of the thread. Plus, hey, good value is good value, no? And I really like tonight's selection with Team Palmer hopefully getting the better of Team Saka?

200 units at Chelsea to WIN vs Arsenal @6.99. Other odds: 6.20. Units advantage: 79. Bet ID: 6627d913fa917e0001310c1c

Those didn't work, Chelsea did stand a fair chance but City as usual found a way, or do we say Chelsea found a way to lose?

El Clasico and it's down to the end of the season. Real have a hand on the trophy, but can Barca throw an early spanner in the works or place Real's other hand on the trophy?

200 units at Sportsbet on Barcelona to WIN vs Real @4.10. Other odds: 4.00. Units advantage: 20

Indeed, it would have been a 130/1++ acca, and ordinarily, the Villa one was never a problem for me, but Liverpool's curse is no matter how bad they are, I just can't bring myself to bet against them. I'd advise it to anyone though, 10/1 versus Liverpool, you could even cash out when Liverpool concede first haha.

The odds were shameful, agree. At least I remember, for Liverpool to qualify against Barca all those years ago was 20/1.

Anyway, today is another weird slightly below value odds for Arsenal to lose, only because it's away I guess. And then FA Cup's Chelsea have Cole Palmer vs tired/injured Haaland. Still, I will take both.

100 units at Sportsbet each on:
Wolves to WIN vs Arsenal @9.20. Other odds: 9.00. Bet ID: 6623c890fa917e0001c6627c
Chelsea to WIN vs City @4.80. Other odds same. Bet ID: 6623c89bfa917e0001bc2763
Units advantage: 20

Real's victory was indeed close, but City still managed to extend their defeat beyond normal time. It's a pity.
I'm glad you were able to capitalize on Arsenal's defeat, if you weren't biased towards Liverpool then perhaps a multi-bet on the defeat of these two teams would have turned things around this season 
I don’t understand this ridiculous odds for Liverpool qualifying. I wouldn't look in this direction even if it was 15.00.

So close, so far, but nothing matters this season if we don't win another trophy, so we might as well go all out tonight on Liverpool to somehow qualify past Atalanta, no? That requires at least a 3-goal margin win.

200 units at Sportsbet on Liverpool to qualify to SF vs Atalanta @5.71. Other odds: 5.25
Units advantage: 92
Bet ID: 662116c9fa917e0001891908

Hooray Villa, boo Liverpool. The time your opponent slips up, you do too? Crystanbul or Crystalgate, Palace really has our number.

Liverpool's last three games xG stats were 3.5+, 2.3+ and 2.7+ and we only scored 2 in the first. Worst, last three games xGA were <1, 2, and <1... and we let in 6 goals.

Bad luck, but that's how the ball rolls. I'm so tempted to go big on Champions League but perhaps I'll sit back to enjoy tonight, and put a simple acca on Champions League royalty:

100 units at Sportsbet on Bayern and Real to WIN vs Arsenal and City respectively @12.32. Other odds: 10.80
Bet ID: 661e9e7bfa917e0001cfee5d
Units advantage: 152

Simple "Hope Arsenal lose" bet today, and Villa are once more the recipients. Liverpool are currently down (surprise, surprise) though so Gunners might even be a tad complacent if we end up not winning?

100 units at Sportsbet on Villa to WIN vs Arsenal @10.63. Other odds: 10.10
Units advantage: 53
Bet ID: 661bae31fa917e00013a1fab



Yes, that's correct. You've also caught me at my worst and most inactive season... but in any case, I have a very high rate of loss, or low win percentage, but it's because I chase high odds. Generally heavy ML bets on the underdog like today's one but yes, rare accas too.

And odds are usually from data analytical. Companies like Pinnacle are called odds providers. They simply analyse data and provide odds that many bookies just take and adjust. But there are also risk management software books use, calculating liabilities (as people place bets) and adjusting odds and limits on that.

Thanks for visiting!

A nice thread and I have been wondering about this, too. For a long time I thought that Cloudbet seems to have the best odds in the market, but it did change a little bit recently. I have been asking myself whether most of the bookies pull the same data or suggested odds from somewhere or whether they all have their own algorithms and individual adjustments? Since there are obvious differences, there seems to be a good amount of individual input and assessment on behalf of the bookies. But I thought they might all be connected to some basic data feed.

"Running units after 77 bets (5W|72L): -4292 (-100)"

Does that mean you placed 77 bets and lost 72? I am not going through all of them, but I assume you are going for a lot of combos?