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Yeah, 99% chances (Without spectators; question is where?). I have mentioned numerous times that IPL is first priority for BCCI because its their lifeline. They don't have any other choice, so only 1% chance of cancellation. The way i see it, BCCI waiting for official confirmation from the ICC in regards of T-20 World Cup cancellation. Once they cancel WC, then we can expect some quick action from the BCCI.
I might be dead wrong on my calculation when giving % number in favor of IPL/BCCI here but that's make sense to me right now when i look at the big picture.
I think the sole problem isn't spectator but the teams and support staff too. We have 8 teams with roaster of 20 players each and followed by support staff and few managers from franchises. Even if they decide to keep it in just one city like Mumbai. Still accommodating so many players within a city can be cumbersome. And not to forget that foreign players would have to undergo a long quarantine. I think all the players would be kept in complete isolation for complete series. So all this doesn't makes sense as per current protocols. But yes it's thousands of crores at stake. I won't be surprised if BCCI gets ready to fight with Government too on this issue.
When $500 Millions at stake then anything is possible all they have to do is invest bit more in logistics and safety of players, which they are already aware of and its very much doable IMO. As far as i know Center gov doesn't have much say in it as they already issued a multiple guideline when they unlocked the lock down (except opening Intl air route, BCCI is capable to hire private jets for personal use) so its all comes down to state gov. BCCI would like to see IPL going ahead in India but their first choice is UAE and UAE seems eager to host IPL season. I would like to see IPL in Sri Lanka as its economical good option but UAE is okay too.
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There is a major problem in having a quick turn around even when the ICC cancels the world cup to resume the IPL, the players are at home for months and they need around a month to prepare to get back to peak fitness and match practice to get to international standards. I would like to see transparency from ICC on what they are planning to do and how much money they wanted to risk by conducting the matches during pandemic or take it safely but extending the series.
Not sure what exactly you meant by transparency... ICC earns from the ICC tournaments mainly ( world cup is about to cancel)
As far as WTC is concern ICC is working on something, Bangladesh board already raised this issue "extending the WTC" and couple of other cricket boards gave green light to this debate so its work in progress.
England and Windies playing against each others, this test series is part of WTC so ICC monitoring it as usual. Pakistan is waiting for their turn and they are already camping in England.
Asia cup cancellation decision came from ACC, ICC doesn't has any say.