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Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 172. (Read 907229 times)

donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
humans will always love gold, it's a very cool metal. but it's use as a currency is limited. store of value? probably, for a while, but there's just so damn much of it.

The majority of people hold the mistaken notion that gold is valuable because it is scarce. In fact, the complete opposite is true:

Gold is valuable because it is the element that has the highest stocks:flows ratio (basically: it is the most plentiful)


Because gold is so abundant already, making more gold is very difficult and does not materially change the balance of the existing stocks (only about 1.2% per year). This guaranteed low inflation is what makes gold a savings medium.
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
@theshmadz

But how does one effectively bar a police state? ?  Especially one that is gathering momentum?  The sheeple seem to be in love with it.  



sorry about that, it's a figure of speech I guess.

what I meant to say was "unless society crumbles and we allow a 1984 styles police-state apocalypse, I think the adoption of bitcoin for governments is inevitable."

legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
@theshmadz



I think DoM is good reading along with Currency Wars. I dont' 'belong' to any particular school but i enjoy the different theories. And, importantly, Rickards has been pretty spot on over the last few years, especially with regards to the longevity of the Euro.

thanks
legendary
Activity: 961
Merit: 1000

I have read though, in Rickards The Death of Money, that the gameplan of the big power blocs seems to be to drive down the price of PM's. One benefit of this is that the China's & Russia's can cheaply increase their gold holdings. Once it gets to 2.7 - 3 % of GDP, then, barring any kind of market crisis, the stage is set for the IMF to introduce SDR's which will include gold in the basket of currencies it is based on. This would significantly increase the fiat price of gold. Implicit to this is that the USD will cede its status as reserve currency.

In this case it might be gold up, bitcoin up?

sorry for barging in but I just wanted to address this part.


I agree that it appears that china, russia, many countries are buying - or foolishly trying and waiting to repatriate - gold.

but I don't think gold will save them. we don't need gold, and we don't need them.

what we need is an open and honest currency.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KR3MgIPxb38

*edit, how do you rate Death of Money on a scale of 1 to 5? is it a good book? I like to read people that can write really well, and engage your imagination, so is it worth reading?


I think DoM is good reading along with Currency Wars. I dont' 'belong' to any particular school but i enjoy the different theories. And, importantly, Rickards has been pretty spot on over the last few years, especially with regards to the longevity of the Euro.
legendary
Activity: 961
Merit: 1000

My personal experience lies in comparing my dealings with both e-gold and MtGox. In both cases I got out with no loss of funds before the collapse. The difference is how I managed to get out. In the case of e-gold I had to convert my gold into CAD and take delivery of the CAD. In the case of MTGox I had to convert my CAD to BTC and take delivery of my BTC. In both cases I ended up keeping the "delivered" form of money, CAD for e-gold, BTC for MTGox.

Yeah, just like I got my bitcoin out of bitcoin-24.com when they collapsed.
People who were in FIAT are still waiting for their money. (after more than a year).


The crucial point here is that gold is far worse than fiat in this context. So for ease of taking delivery we have

Best: Bitcoin and other crypto-currecnies
Middle: Fiat currencies USD, CAD, EUR etc.
Worst: Precious metals, gold, silver etc.

There is a reason why fiat was invented in the first place.

This is one of the reasons I expect both a very strong bull market in Bitcoin combined with a brutal bear market in gold and other precious metals. So we could see BTC / USD in the 100,000 to 1 million range or higher and 1 oz of gold dropping to 500 USD or even below 100 USD. In effect a major transfer of wealth from gold to Bitcoin, kind of like the move from horse powered transportation to motor transportation 110 years ago.


I agree that bitcoin wins out in this sense.

I have read though, in Rickards The Death of Money, that the gameplan of the big power blocs seems to be to drive down the price of PM's. One benefit of this is that the China's & Russia's can cheaply increase their gold holdings. Once it gets to 2.7 - 3 % of GDP, then, barring any kind of market crisis, the stage is set for the IMF to introduce SDR's which will include gold in the basket of currencies it is based on. This would significantly increase the fiat price of gold. Implicit to this is that the USD will cede its status as reserve currency.

In this case it might be gold up, bitcoin up?

This assumes that gold would be included in the SDR. The SDR is defined in terms of fiat currencies and does not include a gold component. In any case I just do not see the "big power blocks" or "gold is a barbarous relic" school of thought suddenly embracing gold.  The real demand for gold has been from the Austrian / Libertarian or "real money" school of thought not the Keynesian / central banker side. The trouble for gold is that Austrian / Libertarian or "real money" capital could very easily flee en mass to Bitcoin. In addition there is the indication that gold is due for a big correction, without even considering Bitcoin. If one takes a look at the inflation adjusted price of gold over the last 100 years http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/images/charts/Gold/Gold_inflation_chart.htm one sees a double top developing. If one puts all of this together one has the perfect storm for a brutal bear market in precious metals.

As for industrial uses of gold such as circuit boards yes it exists, but it is very small compared to the monetary value of gold. I lived through  the gold bear market of 1980 - 2000, which coincided with the rise of personal computer and the Internet. Still gold went from over 800 USD per ounce to close to 200 USD per once in 20 years, and this is in terms of the depreciating USD. The next gold bear could be worse.



No, gold is not in the SDR basket at the moment, but Rickards being a gold / real money guy, writes that the reason for the stockpiling since 09 is that it will be. The IMF has the only clean balance sheet that could accommodate a larger crisis and they would do print by way of SDR (including Gold USD, UKP, Yuan, Euro). I tend to listen to him as Currency Wars has been largely accurate and DoM seems to be continuing that.

Some other points you raised are also interesting: that gold money could seek refuge in bitcoin and that the Fed may actually use bitcoin as a way of managing its fiat debt. The second point here is merely conspiracy at the moment but it is very interest and possibly very lucrative Smiley









legendary
Activity: 2016
Merit: 1259

Countries might benefit more if they would invest today in BTC rather than gold, but we are quite far from there imho.
Still countries will benefit more from investing in gold today rather than investing in US treasuries.
About your "we don't need them" - I don't know what group of people this "we" refers to so I cannot comment.

Humans love gold since as far as history can see - it will not change.
Humans need an open and honest currency, and gold.

hi Smiley

"we" means productive people, "them" means leeches.

humans will always love gold, it's a very cool metal. but it's use as a currency is limited. store of value? probably, for a while, but there's just so damn much of it.


but this is the part I really like:
Quote
Countries might benefit more if they would invest today in BTC rather than gold,

At some point, a political party will win a majority vote on a platform of using bitcoin for at least some portion of it's finances. it's public money and we deserve to see where it's going. it will take a long time, but barring 1984 styles police-state apocalypse, I think it's inevitable.



But how does one effectively bar a police state? ?  Especially one that is gathering momentum?  The sheeple seem to be in love with it. 

legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
@theshmadz

Countries might benefit more if they would invest today in BTC rather than gold, but we are quite far from there imho.
Still countries will benefit more from investing in gold today rather than investing in US treasuries.
About your "we don't need them" - I don't know what group of people this "we" refers to so I cannot comment.

Humans love gold since as far as history can see - it will not change.
Humans need an open and honest currency, and gold.

hi Smiley

"we" means productive people, "them" means leeches.

humans will always love gold, it's a very cool metal. but it's use as a currency is limited. store of value? probably, for a while, but there's just so damn much of it.


but this is the part I really like:
Quote
Countries might benefit more if they would invest today in BTC rather than gold,

At some point, a political party will win a majority vote on a platform of using bitcoin for at least some portion of it's finances. it's public money and we deserve to see where it's going. it will take a long time, but barring 1984 styles police-state apocalypse, I think it's inevitable.

legendary
Activity: 2282
Merit: 1050
Monero Core Team
...

I see it as very unlikely that the bear market in gold will continue for much longer. The bull market was reversed only through blatant manipulation with the help of derivatives. Part of the Quantitative Easing money created is used to short gold. Gold as the ultimate physical store of value will not lose its status and will rise in fiat terms when the fiat ponzi starts crashing - yet most likely much less than BTC.
Real money thinking will move to Bitcoin, but Keynesian thinking will flee en masse to real money thinking when their views dissolve.
Most of the world still sees gold as the ultimate representation of wealth. A big proportion of the people will not shift so easily from a physical store of value conception to a digital store of value conception. People like gold, especially more so outside the western world.
Gold can easily do x10 (1000%) within the next 10 years - depending on the geopolitical and monetary unfolding.
Silver can do x50
Bitcoin can do x1000 (100,000%)


My take is that the Keynesians will stick with what they love namely fiat; however if they decide to go for real money they will pick Bitcoin over gold. After all why pick the asset that is "going up x10" over the one that is going up x1000? Furthermore by picking that asset that goes up x10 they have to admit they were wrong.

My take is within 10 years
Gold x0.3 or even less
Silver x0.2 or less. I expect silver to lose value with respect to gold.
Bitcoin x2000 or more.
legendary
Activity: 2044
Merit: 1005
reading the btce chart looks like we testing $620 then $600

Done up we go
sr. member
Activity: 338
Merit: 250

I have read though, in Rickards The Death of Money, that the gameplan of the big power blocs seems to be to drive down the price of PM's. One benefit of this is that the China's & Russia's can cheaply increase their gold holdings. Once it gets to 2.7 - 3 % of GDP, then, barring any kind of market crisis, the stage is set for the IMF to introduce SDR's which will include gold in the basket of currencies it is based on. This would significantly increase the fiat price of gold. Implicit to this is that the USD will cede its status as reserve currency.

In this case it might be gold up, bitcoin up?

sorry for barging in but I just wanted to address this part.


I agree that it appears that china, russia, many countries are buying - or foolishly trying and waiting to repatriate - gold.

but I don't think gold will save them. we don't need gold, and we don't need them.

what we need is an open and honest currency.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KR3MgIPxb38

Countries might benefit more if they would invest today in BTC rather than gold, but we are quite far from there imho.
Still countries will benefit more from investing in gold today rather than investing in US treasuries.
About your "we don't need them" - I don't know what group of people this "we" refers to so I cannot comment.

Humans love gold since as far as history can see - it will not change.
Humans need an open and honest currency, and gold.
sr. member
Activity: 338
Merit: 250

My personal experience lies in comparing my dealings with both e-gold and MtGox. In both cases I got out with no loss of funds before the collapse. The difference is how I managed to get out. In the case of e-gold I had to convert my gold into CAD and take delivery of the CAD. In the case of MTGox I had to convert my CAD to BTC and take delivery of my BTC. In both cases I ended up keeping the "delivered" form of money, CAD for e-gold, BTC for MTGox.

Yeah, just like I got my bitcoin out of bitcoin-24.com when they collapsed.
People who were in FIAT are still waiting for their money. (after more than a year).


The crucial point here is that gold is far worse than fiat in this context. So for ease of taking delivery we have

Best: Bitcoin and other crypto-currecnies
Middle: Fiat currencies USD, CAD, EUR etc.
Worst: Precious metals, gold, silver etc.

There is a reason why fiat was invented in the first place.

This is one of the reasons I expect both a very strong bull market in Bitcoin combined with a brutal bear market in gold and other precious metals. So we could see BTC / USD in the 100,000 to 1 million range or higher and 1 oz of gold dropping to 500 USD or even below 100 USD. In effect a major transfer of wealth from gold to Bitcoin, kind of like the move from horse powered transportation to motor transportation 110 years ago.


I agree that bitcoin wins out in this sense.

I have read though, in Rickards The Death of Money, that the gameplan of the big power blocs seems to be to drive down the price of PM's. One benefit of this is that the China's & Russia's can cheaply increase their gold holdings. Once it gets to 2.7 - 3 % of GDP, then, barring any kind of market crisis, the stage is set for the IMF to introduce SDR's which will include gold in the basket of currencies it is based on. This would significantly increase the fiat price of gold. Implicit to this is that the USD will cede its status as reserve currency.

In this case it might be gold up, bitcoin up?

This assumes that gold would be included in the SDR. The SDR is defined in terms of fiat currencies and does not include a gold component. In any case I just do not see the "big power blocks" or "gold is a barbarous relic" school of thought suddenly embracing gold.  The real demand for gold has been from the Austrian / Libertarian or "real money" school of thought not the Keynesian / central banker side. The trouble for gold is that Austrian / Libertarian or "real money" capital could very easily flee en mass to Bitcoin. In addition there is the indication that gold is due for a big correction, without even considering Bitcoin. If one takes a look at the inflation adjusted price of gold over the last 100 years http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/images/charts/Gold/Gold_inflation_chart.htm one sees a double top developing. If one puts all of this together one has the perfect storm for a brutal bear market in precious metals.

As for industrial uses of gold such as circuit boards yes it exists, but it is very small compared to the monetary value of gold. I lived through  the gold bear market of 1980 - 2000, which coincided with the rise of personal computer and the Internet. Still gold went from over 800 USD per ounce to close to 200 USD per once in 20 years, and this is in terms of the depreciating USD. The next gold bear could be worse.




I see it as very unlikely that the bear market in gold will continue for much longer. The bull market was reversed only through blatant manipulation with the help of derivatives. Part of the Quantitative Easing money created is used to short gold. Gold as the ultimate physical store of value will not lose its status and will rise in fiat terms when the fiat ponzi starts crashing - yet most likely much less than BTC.
Real money thinking will move to Bitcoin, but Keynesian thinking will flee en masse to real money thinking when their views dissolve.
Most of the world still sees gold as the ultimate representation of wealth. A big proportion of the people will not shift so easily from a physical store of value conception to a digital store of value conception. People like gold, especially more so outside the western world.
Gold can easily do x10 (1000%) within the next 10 years - depending on the geopolitical and monetary unfolding.
Silver can do x50
Bitcoin can do x1000 (100,000%)




legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
@theshmadz

I have read though, in Rickards The Death of Money, that the gameplan of the big power blocs seems to be to drive down the price of PM's. One benefit of this is that the China's & Russia's can cheaply increase their gold holdings. Once it gets to 2.7 - 3 % of GDP, then, barring any kind of market crisis, the stage is set for the IMF to introduce SDR's which will include gold in the basket of currencies it is based on. This would significantly increase the fiat price of gold. Implicit to this is that the USD will cede its status as reserve currency.

In this case it might be gold up, bitcoin up?

sorry for barging in but I just wanted to address this part.


I agree that it appears that china, russia, many countries are buying - or foolishly trying and waiting to repatriate - gold.

but I don't think gold will save them. we don't need gold, and we don't need them.

what we need is an open and honest currency.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KR3MgIPxb38

*edit, how do you rate Death of Money on a scale of 1 to 5? is it a good book? I like to read people that can write really well, and engage your imagination, so is it worth reading?
legendary
Activity: 896
Merit: 1001


This ^ is awesome! CHOO CHOO TO DA MOOON! Grin Cheesy Wink Smiley

Glad to see this one still popping up from time to time.  Wink
legendary
Activity: 2282
Merit: 1050
Monero Core Team

My personal experience lies in comparing my dealings with both e-gold and MtGox. In both cases I got out with no loss of funds before the collapse. The difference is how I managed to get out. In the case of e-gold I had to convert my gold into CAD and take delivery of the CAD. In the case of MTGox I had to convert my CAD to BTC and take delivery of my BTC. In both cases I ended up keeping the "delivered" form of money, CAD for e-gold, BTC for MTGox.

Yeah, just like I got my bitcoin out of bitcoin-24.com when they collapsed.
People who were in FIAT are still waiting for their money. (after more than a year).


The crucial point here is that gold is far worse than fiat in this context. So for ease of taking delivery we have

Best: Bitcoin and other crypto-currecnies
Middle: Fiat currencies USD, CAD, EUR etc.
Worst: Precious metals, gold, silver etc.

There is a reason why fiat was invented in the first place.

This is one of the reasons I expect both a very strong bull market in Bitcoin combined with a brutal bear market in gold and other precious metals. So we could see BTC / USD in the 100,000 to 1 million range or higher and 1 oz of gold dropping to 500 USD or even below 100 USD. In effect a major transfer of wealth from gold to Bitcoin, kind of like the move from horse powered transportation to motor transportation 110 years ago.


I agree that bitcoin wins out in this sense.

I have read though, in Rickards The Death of Money, that the gameplan of the big power blocs seems to be to drive down the price of PM's. One benefit of this is that the China's & Russia's can cheaply increase their gold holdings. Once it gets to 2.7 - 3 % of GDP, then, barring any kind of market crisis, the stage is set for the IMF to introduce SDR's which will include gold in the basket of currencies it is based on. This would significantly increase the fiat price of gold. Implicit to this is that the USD will cede its status as reserve currency.

In this case it might be gold up, bitcoin up?

This assumes that gold would be included in the SDR. The SDR is defined in terms of fiat currencies and does not include a gold component. In any case I just do not see the "big power blocks" or "gold is a barbarous relic" school of thought suddenly embracing gold.  The real demand for gold has been from the Austrian / Libertarian or "real money" school of thought not the Keynesian / central banker side. The trouble for gold is that Austrian / Libertarian or "real money" capital could very easily flee en mass to Bitcoin. In addition there is the indication that gold is due for a big correction, without even considering Bitcoin. If one takes a look at the inflation adjusted price of gold over the last 100 years http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/images/charts/Gold/Gold_inflation_chart.htm one sees a double top developing. If one puts all of this together one has the perfect storm for a brutal bear market in precious metals.

As for industrial uses of gold such as circuit boards yes it exists, but it is very small compared to the monetary value of gold. I lived through  the gold bear market of 1980 - 2000, which coincided with the rise of personal computer and the Internet. Still gold went from over 800 USD per ounce to close to 200 USD per once in 20 years, and this is in terms of the depreciating USD. The next gold bear could be worse.

hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
Who's there?
there is nothing wrong with hoping you will live on bitcoin for the rest of your live. I would be fully availible for the cause: I would spread anarchism and try to code/help with projects. Try to increase adoption, etc.
+1
legendary
Activity: 2492
Merit: 1473
LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper


This ^ is awesome! CHOO CHOO TO DA MOOON! Grin Cheesy Wink Smiley
full member
Activity: 154
Merit: 100
BTC = FREEDOM IS OUR ONLY HOPE!

My personal experience lies in comparing my dealings with both e-gold and MtGox. In both cases I got out with no loss of funds before the collapse. The difference is how I managed to get out. In the case of e-gold I had to convert my gold into CAD and take delivery of the CAD. In the case of MTGox I had to convert my CAD to BTC and take delivery of my BTC. In both cases I ended up keeping the "delivered" form of money, CAD for e-gold, BTC for MTGox.

Yeah, just like I got my bitcoin out of bitcoin-24.com when they collapsed.
People who were in FIAT are still waiting for their money. (after more than a year).


The crucial point here is that gold is far worse than fiat in this context. So for ease of taking delivery we have

Best: Bitcoin and other crypto-currecnies
Middle: Fiat currencies USD, CAD, EUR etc.
Worst: Precious metals, gold, silver etc.

There is a reason why fiat was invented in the first place.

This is one of the reasons I expect both a very strong bull market in Bitcoin combined with a brutal bear market in gold and other precious metals. So we could see BTC / USD in the 100,000 to 1 million range or higher and 1 oz of gold dropping to 500 USD or even below 100 USD. In effect a major transfer of wealth from gold to Bitcoin, kind of like the move from horse powered transportation to motor transportation 110 years ago.


^isnt gold used on the computer boards that support bitcoin?...hmmm =O
legendary
Activity: 961
Merit: 1000

My personal experience lies in comparing my dealings with both e-gold and MtGox. In both cases I got out with no loss of funds before the collapse. The difference is how I managed to get out. In the case of e-gold I had to convert my gold into CAD and take delivery of the CAD. In the case of MTGox I had to convert my CAD to BTC and take delivery of my BTC. In both cases I ended up keeping the "delivered" form of money, CAD for e-gold, BTC for MTGox.

Yeah, just like I got my bitcoin out of bitcoin-24.com when they collapsed.
People who were in FIAT are still waiting for their money. (after more than a year).


The crucial point here is that gold is far worse than fiat in this context. So for ease of taking delivery we have

Best: Bitcoin and other crypto-currecnies
Middle: Fiat currencies USD, CAD, EUR etc.
Worst: Precious metals, gold, silver etc.

There is a reason why fiat was invented in the first place.

This is one of the reasons I expect both a very strong bull market in Bitcoin combined with a brutal bear market in gold and other precious metals. So we could see BTC / USD in the 100,000 to 1 million range or higher and 1 oz of gold dropping to 500 USD or even below 100 USD. In effect a major transfer of wealth from gold to Bitcoin, kind of like the move from horse powered transportation to motor transportation 110 years ago.


I agree that bitcoin wins out in this sense.

I have read though, in Rickards The Death of Money, that the gameplan of the big power blocs seems to be to drive down the price of PM's. One benefit of this is that the China's & Russia's can cheaply increase their gold holdings. Once it gets to 2.7 - 3 % of GDP, then, barring any kind of market crisis, the stage is set for the IMF to introduce SDR's which will include gold in the basket of currencies it is based on. This would significantly increase the fiat price of gold. Implicit to this is that the USD will cede its status as reserve currency.

In this case it might be gold up, bitcoin up?
legendary
Activity: 2282
Merit: 1050
Monero Core Team

My personal experience lies in comparing my dealings with both e-gold and MtGox. In both cases I got out with no loss of funds before the collapse. The difference is how I managed to get out. In the case of e-gold I had to convert my gold into CAD and take delivery of the CAD. In the case of MTGox I had to convert my CAD to BTC and take delivery of my BTC. In both cases I ended up keeping the "delivered" form of money, CAD for e-gold, BTC for MTGox.

Yeah, just like I got my bitcoin out of bitcoin-24.com when they collapsed.
People who were in FIAT are still waiting for their money. (after more than a year).


The crucial point here is that gold is far worse than fiat in this context. So for ease of taking delivery we have

Best: Bitcoin and other crypto-currecnies
Middle: Fiat currencies USD, CAD, EUR etc.
Worst: Precious metals, gold, silver etc.

There is a reason why fiat was invented in the first place.

This is one of the reasons I expect both a very strong bull market in Bitcoin combined with a brutal bear market in gold and other precious metals. So we could see BTC / USD in the 100,000 to 1 million range or higher and 1 oz of gold dropping to 500 USD or even below 100 USD. In effect a major transfer of wealth from gold to Bitcoin, kind of like the move from horse powered transportation to motor transportation 110 years ago.
legendary
Activity: 1022
Merit: 1008
Delusional crypto obsessionist

My personal experience lies in comparing my dealings with both e-gold and MtGox. In both cases I got out with no loss of funds before the collapse. The difference is how I managed to get out. In the case of e-gold I had to convert my gold into CAD and take delivery of the CAD. In the case of MTGox I had to convert my CAD to BTC and take delivery of my BTC. In both cases I ended up keeping the "delivered" form of money, CAD for e-gold, BTC for MTGox.

Yeah, just like I got my bitcoin out of bitcoin-24.com when they collapsed.
People who were in FIAT are still waiting for their money. (after more than a year).
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