rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 174.

zimmah

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Quote from: Todorius on June 02, 2014, 08:33:41 AM

A small correction had to be. Actually I'm impressed that it only dropped to the first Fibo support level. It indeed looks like further
retracement will be met with fierce bullishness.
I think we'll hold that support at 620-630 and go sideways a bit, then the climb towards 700+ will be resumed.

Ye, I was a bit surprised when the price dropped all the way back to $620 in a couple of muinutes after reaching $680, I expected more like $660 or $640. But it's not unreasonable to stay at $620 for a few hours or even a day or two. But unless we will get stuck at $680 I would expect it to jump to $750 or so soon.

Todorius

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A small correction had to be. Actually I'm impressed that it only dropped to the first Fibo support level. It indeed looks like further
retracement will be met with fierce bullishness.
I think we'll hold that support at 620-630 and go sideways a bit, then the climb towards 700+ will be resumed.

Biodom

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Quote from: healthandwealth on June 01, 2014, 12:33:11 PM

680 then 800. Here we go.

With this speed $800 could be here by Mon or Tue.

Some hedge funds are hot in pursuit (in my opinion):
check this out...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n2KhVQbv06s
some current "Gordon Gekko" is "getting in [bitcoin] at a 45 degree angle, slushing and burning everything [every bid] in sight"
go to 0:40-1:08
warning: profanity
correction-more like 60o angle, LOL

healthandwealth

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680 then 800. Here we go.

SlipperySlope

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Stephen Reed

At the current pace, the dramatic breakout rally will reach $800 in about a week. I and others expected a stall at $650 but that does not appear to be happening - yet.

I keep track of the days to double as a bubble peak indicator. The first doubling from the April 10, 2014 low of $340 would be at $680. That price point could be tomorrow at this pace.

MahaRamana

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Quote from: pinksheep on June 01, 2014, 08:25:45 AM

Quote from: DoomDumas on May 31, 2014, 10:06:41 PM

Hi all..

Thank you rpietila for tha high quality TA.. very appreciated.

Im very bullish but not as bullish as 300k/btc..

When does rpietila think it will hit $300K?

He does not give a specific timeframe for such prediction. Rather he calculates probabilities of being at such a price at any given time.

The current trendline says the highest probabilities of hitting 300K are in two years, around end of June 2016. But there will be a fairly long period during which the probability of hitting 300K is significant : from about end of 2015 to end of 2016, depending on when the bull runs and crashes will occur.

This is if the trendline does not have to be redrawn by that time of course.

pinksheep

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Quote from: DoomDumas on May 31, 2014, 10:06:41 PM

Hi all..

Thank you rpietila for tha high quality TA.. very appreciated.

Im very bullish but not as bullish as 300k/btc..

When does rpietila think it will hit $300K?

zimmah

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Quote from: molecular on June 01, 2014, 05:24:21 AM

Quote from: MahaRamana on June 01, 2014, 01:20:34 AM

Quote from: F-bernanke on June 01, 2014, 12:53:33 AM

Quote from: seleme on May 31, 2014, 11:51:24 PM

That breakout chart looks crazy. Those green candles look like penis in erection phase Grin

Haha, I would say "overextended" but when you take a look at the november rally, Bitcoin don't care.
one more 3day green bar in this rally?

Why only one more ? Is it really going to rest before the 1000 resistance ?

To be honest I think it is going to rest. In fact I think we'll pause (go roughly sideways or even down slightly) around $800 for a couple of weeks once we've reached that price level, which might take us a while, too (less than current speed is quite possible and I wouldn't mind).

On what grounds?

Well, firstly: we've had a lot of traffic around $800 during January, pretty much the whole month of January, in fact. That needs to be worked off before we can go higher substantially. Some people who bought there will get out and transfer their coins to new buyers... takes time.

And secondly: the similarity to the April bubble aftermath. $800 is similar to the $130 level we meandered about in September '13 for a good month. How is it similar when clearly 130 is 50% of 266 whereas 800 is 68% of 1162 (notice the fib levels?). Well, after we've found a post-crash bottom on July 6th at around $60, we pretty much rallied for 2 months. I think the $380 low corresponds to that bottom. The bulls are getting increasingly relieved and the bears are closing (or are forced to close) their shorts and are getting back on board. Also increasingly (due to the rally itself), fresh blood starts to rush in (but not as hard as it will after we've started making new all-time-highs again, of course). As to why $800 and not $700? See my first point.

It's just a possible interpretation, but I think it's much more likely than simply shooting through $1000 and beyond in one go.

A couple of weeks? I doubt that. Days maybe, but week, no.

molecular

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Quote from: MahaRamana on June 01, 2014, 04:57:27 AM

Quote from: TERA on June 01, 2014, 03:58:25 AM

$1,000 is likely to be a very brief consolidation like $200 was

My hypothesis is that we will fail the first attempt at 1000 USD, rebounding strongly and falling back to 800. People will be calling the end of the rally and that's when it will actually start. From 800 to 5000.

This makes a lot of sense. It fits the scenario I just posted quite well, too.

molecular

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Quote from: MahaRamana on June 01, 2014, 01:20:34 AM

Quote from: F-bernanke on June 01, 2014, 12:53:33 AM

Quote from: seleme on May 31, 2014, 11:51:24 PM

That breakout chart looks crazy. Those green candles look like penis in erection phase Grin

Haha, I would say "overextended" but when you take a look at the november rally, Bitcoin don't care.
one more 3day green bar in this rally?

Why only one more ? Is it really going to rest before the 1000 resistance ?

To be honest I think it is going to rest. In fact I think we'll pause (go roughly sideways or even down slightly) around $800 for a couple of weeks once we've reached that price level, which might take us a while, too (less than current speed is quite possible and I wouldn't mind).

On what grounds?

Well, firstly: we've had a lot of traffic around $800 during January, pretty much the whole month of January, in fact. That needs to be worked off before we can go higher substantially. Some people who bought there will get out and transfer their coins to new buyers... takes time.

And secondly: the similarity to the April bubble aftermath. $800 is similar to the $130 level we meandered about in September '13 for a good month. How is it similar when clearly 130 is 50% of 266 whereas 800 is 68% of 1162 (notice the fib levels?). Well, after we've found a post-crash bottom on July 6th at around $60, we pretty much rallied for 2 months. I think the $380 low corresponds to that bottom. The bulls are getting increasingly relieved and the bears are closing (or are forced to close) their shorts and are getting back on board. Also increasingly (due to the rally itself), fresh blood starts to rush in (but not as hard as it will after we've started making new all-time-highs again, of course). As to why $800 and not $700? See my first point.

It's just a possible interpretation, but I think it's much more likely than simply shooting through $1000 and beyond in one go.

EFS

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Crypto Swap Exchange

Everybody who use Bitcoin now is doing something.

wachtwoord

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Quote from: MahaRamana on June 01, 2014, 01:20:34 AM

Quote from: F-bernanke on June 01, 2014, 12:53:33 AM

Quote from: seleme on May 31, 2014, 11:51:24 PM

That breakout chart looks crazy. Those green candles look like penis in erection phase Grin

Haha, I would say "overextended" but when you take a look at the november rally, Bitcoin don't care.
one more 3day green bar in this rally?

Why only one more ? Is it really going to rest before the 1000 resistance ?

So around now it's going to drop to ~75$ of what it is? Wink

(That's what happened after 7 green 3d candles at the the rally of the end of last year)

molecular

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Quote from: dnaleor on May 31, 2014, 09:59:21 AM

Quote from: TERA on May 31, 2014, 08:50:16 AM

I'd like to take a moment to remind everyone that the future is not written in stone and we are not all destined to be the super mega wealthy elite for doing nothing.

there is nothing wrong with hoping you will live on bitcoin for the rest of your live. I would be fully availible for the cause: I would spread anarchism and try to code/help with projects. Try to increase adoption, etc.

Actually: not that I live it myself (I make up all kinds of excuses), but if everyone who thinks like this does it (the full availability thing) now instead of when XBT reaches a certain exchange rate or whatever, we'd probably get there with higher certainty and faster.

molecular

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Quote from: zakalwe on May 31, 2014, 08:55:51 AM

Quote from: TERA on May 31, 2014, 08:50:16 AM

I'd like to take a moment to remind everyone that the future is not written in stone and we are not all destined to be the super mega wealthy elite for doing nothing.

Bear anxiety lol......

I'll never understand people like these. Who pays them to be haters?

Dude, he has a point.

MahaRamana

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Quote from: TERA on June 01, 2014, 03:58:25 AM

$1,000 is likely to be a very brief consolidation like $200 was

My hypothesis is that we will fail the first attempt at 1000 USD, rebounding strongly and falling back to 800. People will be calling the end of the rally and that's when it will actually start. From 800 to 5000.

Dotto

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No maps for these territories

How does one traslate it in TA terms?

Dotto

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No maps for these territories

Today I have seen a beautiful, beautiful house near the sea. It was for sale.

Suddenly I have realised that in a pretty probable future we could... bougth houses for cents of bitcoin! ohlalalala!!

TERA

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$1,000 is likely to be a very brief consolidation like $200 was

kehtolo

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If it tests 1000 it wont stop there.. it will push on and re-test the ATH.. when it smashes through that, watch out.

MahaRamana

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Quote from: F-bernanke on June 01, 2014, 12:53:33 AM

Quote from: seleme on May 31, 2014, 11:51:24 PM

That breakout chart looks crazy. Those green candles look like penis in erection phase Grin

Haha, I would say "overextended" but when you take a look at the november rally, Bitcoin don't care.
one more 3day green bar in this rally?

Why only one more ? Is it really going to rest before the 1000 resistance ?

Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 174. (Read 907212 times)