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Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 302. (Read 907212 times)

hero member
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There was also this giant order book on mtgox that kept filling up with new fiat bids every day - every day a new few slabs of 1K walls added, rather than this pathetic bitstamp orderbook where fiat is being subtracted every day and now 600 looks like a cliff to fall off of.

I know this is a bit off-topic for this thread, but.

I remember the MtGox orderbook topped at about 21 million USD at the height of the bubble April 2013. Then we got withdraw delays and the delays kept in increasing until MtGox finally just stopped processing USD withdraws after "temporary" halting them two weeks and then announcing that USD withdraws had "resumed" - but in reality they never resumed.

At this point in time quite a few big players bought BTC and transferred it out. There was a pretty big premium for doing so, but the difference was like $90 in real markets vs $105 at MtGox (huge in percent but not huge in $).

Then MtGox started rallying and the bidside of the orderbook there started increasing until it topped at around $40 million. I was frequently completely confused by the big bids at MtGox during the last rally.

"Who in their right minds deposit USD to an exchange you can not withdraw from?" I was thinking while posting warnings against MtGox in the "MtGox withdraw delays gathering" thread. It just made ZERO sense to me. I just could not understand where these big bids were coming from and who in their right minds would send huge amounts of fiat to an exchange you can't withdraw from. "Whales" have the resources to do some basic research, it's not like you throw a million dollars at something without doing a minimum of research.

The bankruptcy documents clearly show that MtGox has about HALF (or slightly less than half) of the fiat supposedly in customer accounts. Their story - seriously - is that they "discovered" this on February 24th 2014 during their "investigation" into the supposed "malleability" Bitcoin theft. Their story is that they had NO IDEA that this large amount of fiat was missing prior to this date.

I wonder: Was that large bid-side at MtGox and those big bids really actually there in the first place, or was this just a mirage of numbers-backed-by-nothing on our computer screens?

Regardless of what you think of that: Reality is that MtGox really doesn't have more than half the fiat supposedly in customer accounts as of now. I suspect that "money" never existed in the first place. What if the rally up to the November top was largely driven by NOTHING (as in computer-screen-fiat, not real fiat)? Just something to think about.
Actually $40M USD is not a large bid side at all for a price of $1000. At $100 there was a large bid side of $15M. So at $1000, a large bid side would be $150M.
sr. member
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"to be or not to be, that is the bitcoin"
I suspect that "money" never existed in the first place. What if the rally up to the November top was largely driven by NOTHING (as in computer-screen-fiat, not real fiat)? Just something to think about.

yes, it makes sense. The resulting huge premium on goxcoins price could have attracted many fool pig's (greedy's) coins, in order to try to keep the scheme going.

and inversely the later "crash" in order to get more fiat in?
legendary
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Bitcoin is antisemitic
I suspect that "money" never existed in the first place. What if the rally up to the November top was largely driven by NOTHING (as in computer-screen-fiat, not real fiat)? Just something to think about.

yes, it makes sense. The resulting huge premium on goxcoins price could have attracted many fool pig's (greedy's) coins, in order to try to keep the scheme going.
hero member
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One of the good features of the 2013 reversal was that the downtrend was broken right away on the initial surge - there was no guessing involved about whether the line was going to break and no work needed to try to 'break out' of it - it was already done. There was also this giant order book on mtgox that kept filling up with new fiat bids every day - every day a new few slabs of 1K walls added, rather than this pathetic bitstamp orderbook where fiat is being subtracted every day and now 600 looks like a cliff to fall off of.
legendary
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I said if Huobi breaks 3800, things are going to get very bearish. there she goes, and the volume is opening up. I think tonight we are headed to pass wave A to form wave C of a three wave decline on all exchanges.

tough trend line resistance kicks in at 558ish. that is where my buy is at, but who knows how far it could go if this is the sale of stolen coins. I will have some cash spare for the 400s and 300s.
hero member
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I don't think that trend line has much significance. The longer it goes on, the less useful it is. I think resistance based on recent price footprint is more relevant.
hero member
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What if resistance is logarithmic?



it looks to me like one or more of the points you built your resistance on was an outlier, skewing the slope.
Can you draw the correct chart? Has it already broken out?
legendary
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Sine secretum non libertas
Trying to predict anything using charts/technical analysis with this low of volume is ridiculous. Small market buys/selloff does not indicate where the future market is heading when the volume is less than 3000 coins.  

Lower volume can reduce the strength of the signal and of the noise to different degrees.  If it is reducing the noise energy more than it is reducing the signal energy, you'll actually get a better picture during the low volume period.  How to tell whether it is reducing the noise vs. the signal?   Low volatility tends to favor signal.  You will notice than in the past, periods of lower volume have followed the cosmic trendline parallels more closely than have the high-volatility plunges and spikes.

I use the word "cosmic" to mean all-inclusive, total history.
legendary
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Sine secretum non libertas
That looks eerily similar to the chart of silver from the breakdown since 2011 $48 peak.

Very much so.  That fact seems long-term bullish to me.  While I am short-term bullish on risk-off, medium-term bearish on industrial slowdown, I am long-term bullish on silver due to bearishness on fiat in the big picture.  The time-frames don't work for BTC, but the long-term bullish motivation is similar.
sr. member
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this statement is false
What if resistance is logarithmic?



it looks to me like one or more of the points you built your resistance on was an outlier, skewing the slope.
full member
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PrimeDAO - An Adoption Engine for Open Finance
What if resistance is logarithmic?



That looks eerily similar to the chart of silver from the breakdown since 2011 $48 peak.

i've stated before the the current behavior in Bitcoin is too similar to Gold & Silver's peak 2 years ago. The price kept up at high levels for a while, going up at every dive until they finally gave in and crashed.
full member
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Lazy, cynical and insolent since 1968
quoted from BTCe chatbox - "yay going all in!!" "to mars!" "to moon!" "hold now or cry!" It is getting busy. I have found this a very good time to sell in the past.

You need the trollbox to be over 8K users before it begins to meltdown into something completely malleable Wink
legendary
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quoted from BTCe chatbox - "yay going all in!!" "to mars!" "to moon!" "hold now or cry!" It is getting busy. I have found this a very good time to sell in the past.

legendary
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^^ true!
hero member
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What if resistance is logarithmic?



That looks eerily similar to the chart of silver from the breakdown since 2011 $48 peak.
legendary
Activity: 924
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just because there is low volume does not mean there are no buyers/sellers in the shadows. that spike was a 300 BTC sell off ad it hit the wedge just right. besides, the bias that it will fall tonight is based on a much larger piece of price history than just a few days.
full member
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RicePicker
Trying to predict anything using charts/technical analysis with this low of volume is ridiculous. Small market buys/selloff does not indicate where the future market is heading when the volume is less than 3000 coins.  
legendary
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Stamp just outlined a wedge with that little spike. should break out to the down side. but Huobi is a menace....
legendary
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I noticed that bitfinex was the one exchange that didn't participate in that 'joint statement of bitcoin exchanges after mtgox'

BTC-e did not too.

Both those exchanges have allowed early confirmation of BTC transactions.

Both these sites had the 100 USD Bitcoin hack. I say hack cos plenty people never got their orders filled.

Both these sites have most likely been robbed.

Both these sites are running a fractional reserve Bitcoin operation.


That is what I reckon anyways.

worth noting. for what my opinion is worth.
legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
I hate to think that we could sit at around 630 for about a month, and false break-outs either side eating away at your funds. nope. no more trading for me.
You might appreciate this chart then:



Thanks for the chart. very true.

On a smaller scale though, I dont know what to think. Huobi is threatening fresh lows today, but BTCe and Bitstamp are looking quite bullish. that why Im stepping back.
I think all eyes on Huobi tonight, it may pave the way into the 500s. If not, Im not going to assume anything.
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