Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 305. (Read 907227 times)

a lot of the those second generation coin smells like ripple, a bunch of pre-mine scamcoin or closed system for speculative purposes.

It has big volume for an altcoin and during pumps it's huge one but the pic you posted is misleading, it's because of speculation about China sites in last few days.

While I'm hoping that everyone's bullishness comes to pass, I can't help thinking that until the numbers below improve (ie the bid volume increases and the ratio levels out) we are not going anywhere.  I appreciate there is probably a lot of funds sitting on the sidelines.

BitStamp bid/ask

Whole bid volume ----------- Ratio -----------Whole ask volume

14,407,503.04 USD -----------1 : 1.25 --------  18,055,159.13 USD
34,899.29 BTC ------------1 : 0.55 as BTC -----19,358.65 BTC

Edit: formatting

we look at the charts, and we thinks. LTCBTC is behaving fishy.

EDIT: silly me, it's just huobi adding LTC. we might see a rally.

+1 well this is a thread for daytraders, but I think regarding function they have the potential to add a somewhat cryptofinance to the sphere. But especially the protocols build on top of Bitcoin have quite a high rate to succeed, we will see

When BTC hits maximum adoption, LTC may still have a share of the economy. that puts LTC is a situation where it may grow further, but bitcoin cannot.

If BTC will grow the fastest because of networking, then lets assume BTC grows at a rate 3^2, and LTC slower @ 2^2. if now the difference in ratio is 1/40, then after 2x time the ratio must be 1/120, approaching zero until growth stops.

but when growth for bitcoin maxes out, does that mean growth for litecoin maxes out? no, because litecoin simply hasnt grown that big. I think if litecoin is still used at all by then, it will gradually rise in value to bitcoin, and where must it stop?

yeah, it would be silly to make every BTC holder hold 1/4 litecoin, but think, at 1/40 you could corner the market 

what my main point here is that LTCBTC chart looks a bit like BTCUSD. Im just trying to make sense of that. I dont see why Litecoin surpassed BTC in bull season. What is the riddle?

LTC volume is misleading, there are fewer HODLers (no publicly known Satoshi-size hoards), fewer lost coins, faster relative supply inflation.

Also, the underlying technicals and mining/network economics are problematic (scrypt gives the mining increased capital & running costs, more orphaned blocks due to lower block rate target, R&D for ASICs is more expensive because of scrypt & accentuates the sunk+running cost issues)

If the world suddenly gets majority/ubiquitous fibre based internet into homes/commercial buildings, then maybe the improved latency will cause the bitcoin core devs to consider lowering the block rate target. Satoshi knew what he was doing re: SHA256 and 10 minute blocks TBH.

I have been looking to this for almost 3 months now, LTC has a really huge volume without exaggerating... 

You're using data from the period when LTC is highly speculated based on Huobi stuff  

But since LTC goes up to 0.035 regularly than buying now is almost guarantees profit though (buying few days ago was even more guaranteed, lol). There are lot of alts near the bottom though where the potential profit is even bigger than LTC one though.

LoL, Who in his sane brains will think that LTC is the "next best thing"?? 
LTC has been here long time ago and it has already his massive pumps and dumps. It is more reasonable to take a look to any of those 2º generation cryptos like nxt, etherium, xcp and so on. Most of them probably fail loudly, but I am sure one of these is called to be the "next best thing".

I am holding about a 70% BTC, 30% LTC portfolio.   I have been much more profitable on my LTC because of my dollar cost average of everything.   Obviously, it is also because I was a little bit behind on my timing for buying the majority of my BTC.   I don't think LTC will ever reach 1/4 of the value of BTC, but the ratio will most likely increase to significantly higher levels than now.   I think it is mainly attractive because of the confirmation times as well as the psychological thought that it is the "next best thing"  for people who feel they missed the boat with BTC

I do hold more value in LTC than in BTC, it is true that the current inflation of LTC is 8 times higher than BTC, but the huge trading volume that matches and surpass the BTC trading volume means that there is a big chance for growth,  I did also notice that the sell/buy amounts are shrinking more and more with the huge volume, which could means that LTC is changing hands, which is good.

I usually don't like to compare BTC with LTC, this really doesn't work, BTC has a first mover advantage, network effect, loyalty.... but LTC offer a 2nd choice and I do like choices, and to be honest, name any legitimate alts that have a real development going ? really few if any.... 


I have been watching this chart for few months now, and I decided lately to invest a bit more into LTC, best decision ever 





 

Naively, 1:400 would reasonable under those assumptions, due to the network size (in active wallets) and Metcalfe's Law.  But Metcalfe's Law might be subtly yet importantly different in this case:  LTC's value is primarily derived from ease of exchange with BTC.  Does that mean LTC inherits BTC's network effect?  That might undermine the influence of both the division of the supply among a smaller number of holders and the smaller number of counter-parties for transaction, but perhaps each to a different degree.  I'm guessing that there are off-the-shelf models for this, derived to analyze pegged currencies in the fiat world, but I'm not familiar with them.

I don't think it is that easy. Fiat currencies' market caps are big and small, and have some relation to their underlying economies, respectively. They also fluctuate against each other.

If LTC userbase is roughly constant 1/10 of BTC, and # of LTC in circulation is 4 times more, then it is realistic to assume that the ratio would be 1:40 perpetually.

The only way for LTC to achieve parity with USD is to actually make every present and future BTC holder to actually hold (an equal value of) LTC, which is quite ridiculous, don't you think so?

............I did mention that bitcoin was ahead by the network effect......... if you consider the whole sentence at once the logic is not flawed. I do not expect Litecoin to reach 1/4 of the value of bitcoin, but there is a force driving it there, and other forces driving it back.

when bitcoin hits the ceiling in terms of USD value, will the world accept forever that 1BTC= 40 LTC when there are only 4x as much? again, it is a binary move, litecoin will claw to parity with bitcoin over time, or it will fall to zero.

Can you explain why litecoin is supposed to be 1/4 of bitcoin? I understand "the max coins of ltc is 1/4 the max coins of bitcoin" but this logic is flawed.
1. Litecoin does not have anywhere near the same adoption level as Bitcoin. They do not have the same fundamentals. How can you make a comparison involving only the supply side but not the demand side?
2. There are actually 8 times more Litecoins mined per day than Bitcoin, not 4, and the daily supply is a big determiner of price.
3. Bitcoin has a long history in which much of bitcoin is hoarded forever or lost. It is theorized only a small fraction of bitcoins trade on the market. Litecoin, on the other hand, doesn't have as many coins lost. Almost its entire supply trades on the market, which is a huge amount of coins.

very interesting to me right now is the LTCBTC chart. LTCBTC looks similar to BTCUSD...... Litecoin could be trying to tell us something very important, although I don't see how it could be more than temporary.

litecoin must strive against the forces of the network effect, but it's rational value is 1/4 of bitcoins ($150 @600), perhaps plus a little bit of speedy transaction value.

I would like to think that Bitcoin will win the battle, as it is well ahead, but the chart is alarming. my eyes are peeled on that, it could be worth a short term scalp before bitcoin takes the reigns again.

Thanks for your view rpietla, I agree.

Interesting report from Goldman Sachs: "Bitcoin could theoretically save the economy over $100Billion per annum"

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101486222

And now, back to the very original OP'ish style...

Today's cigar was Partagas Serie E no. 2, although I don't know what the number means. It tastes like a Partagas, which is good. Yesterday's Montecristo Open Eagle looks nice, but tasted like a Montecristo, which I don't like. It is sad; it would suit my first name, but the taste is just not to my liking. Perhaps the least enjoyable of the Cubans.. No wine, not even tea.

They opened a new coffee shop right across the street from my office. I only know 3 places in the downtown with raw cakes, and the 2 are near Senaatintori tourist area. What a nice surprise that this addition is just next to my club! A coffee, piece of cake and bar of chocolate is 14 euros, which I know to be the cheapest here. Service is very friendly in all of the places. Some time ago a very ordinary Mojito cost me 16 euros in Helsinki, so in general the city is not too affordable.

What I am working on right now is to get the reparations project in Malla started. We have a good team, and after it gets going, I'll have a few months to concentrate on making the web and community started. We will have the grand opening some time late summer.

I am also about to write an e-book(let) about the Economic History of Bitcoin, with Sirius.

Haven't had time to think much about the price. It seems that the markets have pretty much accepted the 600 level for now. Every day that passes without anything happening, reinforces the price because we are currently significantly below the trendline (814 as of this writing). A further dip or flashcrash may come, but it is difficult to tell when, and how low would it go. Going all your trading position into Bitcoin now is the right move. The trendline will cross the Bitstamp ATH of 1163 in May 1st, 2014.

The general mood towards Bitcoin is hostile now. If we are not willing to go lower in price under these conditions, it is almost certain that we will go violently up after a few months. I don't believe April will yet see any sustained rally, but May-June starts to be a possibility. After the rally starts, it has historically lasted only 1-2 months, and I think that from breaking the ATH to making a new one will take only 3 weeks. I would think the new top is reached June-July, and measure 3000-7000.

I am on the opinion that these self-similar market movements are inevitable for Bitcoin, and several almost similar cycles will still happen, as exponentially more people hear, get interested, and invest into bitcoins, leading to divestment by existing investors, bubble topping, and response by those who don't like Bitcoin, after the next wave comes and tide rises again.

TL;DR: Buy, because there is confusion on the streets.

Risto school of bitcraft and coinery.