got out of my shorts this morning at 627. the support has lasted too long.... and now the bulls are testing.
I still have a small portion of my long open from 3/10 that didn't stop out. I'm trying to close it in the 650s if I can. The last breach of 660 looked primed for takeoff; it was a false breakout and we declined. This will be the third attempt at cracking this resistance if we can get there. There were some short term bullish divergences after we broke down through 630, but I see a lot of resistance here, and won't be chasing price.
BFX longs are also at > 3:1 to shorts currently (based on price of 640), with ~ 16 million USD swapped, which is always good to keep in mind if we fail to breach this upside resistance.
I am thinking mid-term (1-2 months) bullish but I think we see some downside movement first. This move from 400 has not been characteristic of an impulsive one that would indicate to me the start of a new up trend. But the February down trend was much more predictable, so while I was fully leveraged short on several occasions then, I will not be now. Light and tight -- if at all. We are near the end of this bear market I think, but with sentiment so uber bullish (I don't know what rpietila was talking about with that one) despite a very congested and stagnated move upwards, I don't think we have seen the end of it.
I also think we haven't seen the end of it, we should test 550 again, but the chart is behaving strange to me. Every trade I took before the 400 low came at my command, but now the market is just wondering around and is not responding very accurately.
Im not prepared to sit out a strategy so robust as yours, I want a quick trade to reduce exchange risk and sovereign risk. I was lucky to get back on the train at 560 a few weeks ago, and it went straight to 690. Im not a news trader but BTC is vulnerable to good news at the moment such as the opening of exchanges in America.
Im just gonna hold some LTC until the 19th and hope those chines shell out for a few.
