rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 309.

MAbtc

hero member

Activity: 826

Merit: 508

Didn't get that final push to 700 I was hoping for. Undecided

This has been my primary chart the last couple of days. It found me a couple good entries and exits, and is still on target. My target for this push was 650, doubt we'll get there. Short term up trend broken, but we're still straddling a fib support. (The arrows are not time-based)

Bounces aside, I'm looking for a downside target that overshoots the 50% retracement (710->400). Hopefully find entry near 539-557. This would keep us outside of February's down channel. But if it does play out anything like this, it means we aren't out of the woods yet, and a strong snap back from the 610 level (or below) could indicate a return to sub-500s.

Also, I like this guy's thoughts, entry at 586. More bullish. Cheesy

Solarstorm75

member

Activity: 70

Merit: 10

Quote from: sgbett on March 04, 2014, 01:31:21 PM

Quote from: Peter R on March 03, 2014, 11:50:54 PM

Quote from: sgbett on March 03, 2014, 11:34:29 PM

Quote from: MatTheCat on March 03, 2014, 11:03:26 PM

You guys just have different investment styles. Here's my caricature:

MatTheCat is always checking the data, guessing whether the walls are real or fake, drawing lines on charts, analyzing psychology, and going short or long as the situation and his intuition dictates.

Sgbett sits backs, sipping his scotch, and he waits........and waits......he hears the screams from outside, sees the blood in the streets, takes a large position, and returns to his lounge.

Best call of the thread so far. I do indeed like to sip scotch whilst waiting

And while waiting sgbett missed the november'13 rally completely. Grin

chessnut

legendary

Activity: 924

Merit: 1001

As much as I am convinced that the tide is turning, we may still be dealing with a very uncertain number of coins in supply. as of yesterday, perhaps 180K more than we hoped.

critical levels from here are 600 and 530. if these are boken, the case becomes much stronger for possible new lows or a re-test of lows. I think the latest bull run was left hanging for too many days, and needs to form a new base.

sgbett

legendary

Activity: 2576

Merit: 1087

Quote from: Peter R on March 03, 2014, 11:50:54 PM

Quote from: sgbett on March 03, 2014, 11:34:29 PM

Quote from: MatTheCat on March 03, 2014, 11:03:26 PM

You guys just have different investment styles. Here's my caricature:

MatTheCat is always checking the data, guessing whether the walls are real or fake, drawing lines on charts, analyzing psychology, and going short or long as the situation and his intuition dictates.

Sgbett sits backs, sipping his scotch, and he waits........and waits......he hears the screams from outside, sees the blood in the streets, takes a large position, and returns to his lounge.

Best call of the thread so far. I do indeed like to sip scotch whilst waiting

Queeq

sr. member

Activity: 427

Merit: 250

Quote from: Okurkabinladin on March 04, 2014, 12:05:21 PM

Uh huh, it´s not like Putin is holding westerners and their new Kiev petdogs by their balls, while Russians already secured peninsula with no resistance at all (population is on their side), he has to "test waters", lol. You have some great info, sir.

Who really has great info is you, sir. None of Ukrainian military bases were taken. The vast majority of population is not on "their side". The only things happening there is provocations from Russian military and mercenaries which appears to have not much effect. So Jungian's assertion is pretty likely true.

However, this is TA thread, let's keep it out of political discussion, especially in the case where there is high probability that some people involved could be misinformed.

Jungian

legendary

Activity: 930

Merit: 1010

Quote from: User705 on January 05, 2014, 04:33:08 PM

Bitcoin adoption and dollar collapse might not be very linked. Dollar might collapse in value anyways. And bitcoin adoption can happen or perhaps another crypto takes over with or without dollar collapsing.

I doubt the dollar is going anywhere in a few years. It's still the gobal reserve currency and will continue to be so for the near future. Capital will flow into the dollar from other less stable places.

Places where you really want BTC is places like Argentina, where inflation run rampant and it's hard to get USD.

hdbuck

legendary

Activity: 1260

Merit: 1002

Quote from: Okurkabinladin on March 04, 2014, 12:05:21 PM

Quote from: Jungian on March 04, 2014, 09:35:08 AM

Quote from: Okurkabinladin on March 04, 2014, 09:14:46 AM

Quote from: hdbuck on March 03, 2014, 12:49:16 PM

Well, Ukranians got until 3:00 GMT to surrender.

-> http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/03/03/uk-ukraine-crisis-ultimatum-idUKBREA221AI20140303

Shit is about to hit the fan big time... Shocked

It´s a propaganda by westerners, who back Maidan (in this case CNN, who refused to give their source), Russians demented this, not that they have reason for ultimatum in situation, when Ukrainians defect to them in thousands. Simply FUD.

http://en.itar-tass.com/world/721748

Lol, you claim propaganda and then you post that as a source.

Far more likely that Putin tested the waters with a ultimatum and then backed down and claimed he never issued it.

Uh huh, it´s not like Putin is holding westerners and their new Kiev petdogs by their balls, while Russians already secured peninsula with no resistance at all (population is on their side), he has to "test waters", lol. You have some great info, sir.

Anyway, the point is, that misinformed idiots, who pray for yet another Syria/Lybia/Iraq will be letdown. There will be no war. Price of bitcoin will only be affected (positively), if indeed Eu shoots itself in the foot and tries to sanction Russian federation, cutting itself off from its natural resources and russian oligarchs from their accounts full of dollars they stole from their homeland (Cyprus redux). Billions of dollars would have to be redirected in that case, triggering surge of new fiat into cryptos.

yea.. at this point everything is propaganda anyway..

But chances are that at some point, Putin will take a dump on US financial system.. (im not saying it wouldnt also have a severe impact over Russian system too.)

-> http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/russia-warns-could-reduce-to-zero-economic-dependency-on-us/articleshow/31403595.cms

Quote from: the article

An attempt to announce sanctions would end in a crash for the financial system of the United States, which would cause the end of the domination of the United States in the global financial system

What's bad for the world's financial system is good for Bitcoin. Isnt it?
Grin

Okurkabinladin

hero member

Activity: 574

Merit: 506

Quote from: Jungian on March 04, 2014, 09:35:08 AM

Quote from: Okurkabinladin on March 04, 2014, 09:14:46 AM

Quote from: hdbuck on March 03, 2014, 12:49:16 PM

Well, Ukranians got until 3:00 GMT to surrender.

-> http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/03/03/uk-ukraine-crisis-ultimatum-idUKBREA221AI20140303

Shit is about to hit the fan big time... Shocked

It´s a propaganda by westerners, who back Maidan (in this case CNN, who refused to give their source), Russians demented this, not that they have reason for ultimatum in situation, when Ukrainians defect to them in thousands. Simply FUD.

http://en.itar-tass.com/world/721748

Lol, you claim propaganda and then you post that as a source.

Far more likely that Putin tested the waters with a ultimatum and then backed down and claimed he never issued it.

Uh huh, it´s not like Putin is holding westerners and their new Kiev petdogs by their balls, while Russians already secured peninsula with no resistance at all (population is on their side), he has to "test waters", lol. You have some great info, sir.

Anyway, the point is, that misinformed idiots, who pray for yet another Syria/Lybia/Iraq will be letdown. There will be no war. Price of bitcoin will only be affected (positively), if indeed Eu shoots itself in the foot and tries to sanction Russian federation, cutting itself off from its natural resources and russian oligarchs from their accounts full of dollars they stole from their homeland (Cyprus redux). Billions of dollars would have to be redirected in that case, triggering surge of new fiat into cryptos.

Jungian

legendary

Activity: 930

Merit: 1010

Quote from: Okurkabinladin on March 04, 2014, 09:14:46 AM

Quote from: hdbuck on March 03, 2014, 12:49:16 PM

Well, Ukranians got until 3:00 GMT to surrender.

-> http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/03/03/uk-ukraine-crisis-ultimatum-idUKBREA221AI20140303

Shit is about to hit the fan big time... Shocked

It´s a propaganda by westerners, who back Maidan (in this case CNN, who refused to give their source), Russians demented this, not that they have reason for ultimatum in situation, when Ukrainians defect to them in thousands. Simply FUD.

http://en.itar-tass.com/world/721748

Lol, you claim propaganda and then you post that as a source.

Far more likely that Putin tested the waters with a ultimatum and then backed down and claimed he never issued it.

Okurkabinladin

hero member

Activity: 574

Merit: 506

Quote from: hdbuck on March 03, 2014, 12:49:16 PM

Well, Ukranians got until 3:00 GMT to surrender.

-> http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/03/03/uk-ukraine-crisis-ultimatum-idUKBREA221AI20140303

Shit is about to hit the fan big time... Shocked

It´s a propaganda by westerners, who back Maidan (in this case CNN, who refused to give their source), Russians demented this, not that they have reason for ultimatum in situation, when Ukrainians defect to them in thousands. Simply FUD.

http://en.itar-tass.com/world/721748

Queeq

sr. member

Activity: 427

Merit: 250

Quote from: MatTheCat on March 04, 2014, 07:19:20 AM

Quote from: creekbore on March 04, 2014, 12:02:33 AM

But remember...according to some here news has no impact on either sentiment or price.

Most of the time it doesn't.

Just think of headlines like "Bitcoin hits $1000 on Zynga uptake"

Utter bullshit. Bitcoin hit $1000 resistance level as top after recovery from crash. It is misconceptions like these which lead to n00bs being utterly shocked that the Bitcoins that they panic bought on the back of someone on the news saying nice things about Bitcoin, are fast losing value.

With the Ukraine situation however, if it is indeed the case that some wealthy citizens are moving money into Bitcoin for whatever reasons, then that is totally different kind of news. That is what I would call pro-active news. It is news of people in a situation, where they are going to pile a lot of wealth into Bitcoin...if that were the case, and I am not 100% that it is, but if it were the case, then where is the buying power today?

It's already past lunchtime in Kiev? It aint happening.

The majority here, in Ukraine, simply buy USD or EUR. I don't think serious money flowing into Bitcoin. People are mostly skeptical about it, even highly qualified IT specialists.

EuroTrash

hero member

Activity: 728

Merit: 500

I believe someone in Ukraine (or in Russia) DID panic and bought bitcoin.

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/swiss-money-laundering-probe-yanukovych-22714099

While the market was maybe looking for an excuse to panic buy.

MatTheCat

hero member

Activity: 840

Merit: 1000

Quote from: creekbore on March 04, 2014, 12:02:33 AM

But remember...according to some here news has no impact on either sentiment or price.

Most of the time it doesn't.

Just think of headlines like "Bitcoin hits $1000 on Zynga uptake"

Utter bullshit. Bitcoin hit $1000 resistance level as top after recovery from crash. It is misconceptions like these which lead to n00bs being utterly shocked that the Bitcoins that they panic bought on the back of someone on the news saying nice things about Bitcoin, are fast losing value.

With the Ukraine situation however, if it is indeed the case that some wealthy citizens are moving money into Bitcoin for whatever reasons, then that is totally different kind of news. That is what I would call pro-active news. It is news of people in a situation, where they are going to pile a lot of wealth into Bitcoin...if that were the case, and I am not 100% that it is, but if it were the case, then where is the buying power today?

It's already past lunchtime in Kiev? It aint happening.

creekbore

full member

Activity: 210

Merit: 100

Lazy, cynical and insolent since 1968

Quote from: ErisDiscordia on March 03, 2014, 12:19:19 PM

Quote from: MatTheCat on March 03, 2014, 12:14:51 PM

Quote from: ErisDiscordia on March 03, 2014, 12:13:23 PM

Quote from: MatTheCat on March 03, 2014, 11:31:15 AM

However, I smell potential CCMF here. Bitstamp was doing fuck all. And then these massive ramps, the majority coming from just one account, possibly all of them coming from just one account. They happened during Eastern European office hours. Someone taking precautions due to Ukraine conflict?

Please excuse my ignorance but how can you tell that certain buys/sells are coming from the same account?

If there is a 3K order, which keeps jumping around in unison, you can be pretty sure it is just one person doing it.

I see now, thanks. For a confused moment I thought it might be possible to find this sort of data somewhere.

This whole Ukraine business is starting to smell more and more like Cyprus 2.0 to me (just on a much grander scale obviously). Gold is reacting pretty strongly, too and seems to be on its way to confirming a trend reversal, from what I can tell.

But remember...according to some here news has no impact on either sentiment or price.

Peter R

legendary

Activity: 1162

Merit: 1007

Quote from: sgbett on March 03, 2014, 11:34:29 PM

Quote from: MatTheCat on March 03, 2014, 11:03:26 PM

You guys just have different investment styles. Here's my caricature:

MatTheCat is always checking the data, guessing whether the walls are real or fake, drawing lines on charts, analyzing psychology, and going short or long as the situation and his intuition dictates.

Sgbett sits backs, sipping his scotch, and he waits........and waits......he hears the screams from outside, sees the blood in the streets, takes a large position, and returns to his lounge.

sgbett

legendary

Activity: 2576

Merit: 1087

Quote from: MatTheCat on March 03, 2014, 11:03:26 PM

Quote from: sgbett on March 03, 2014, 10:16:33 PM

Quote from: MatTheCat on March 03, 2014, 07:19:47 PM

This is the quality TA thread, right?

Does anyone want to analyse the double pennant formation on Stamp right now? The second has formed at a lower level than the first.

Here is my analysis:

The price went up, then it went down a bit, then it went up and down. I think this indicates that over the next few days the price will go up and down. You should probably buy if you have cash you don't mind losing, and sell if you are short of cash.

Shit. Wrong thread, that should have been in trading 101.

Hey, don't knock the MatTheCat 101 threads.

Just read over my 101 possible break out analysis....pretty good as it turned out, except I ended backing the wrong of the two horses. One looked increasingly like a foregone conclusion, the other required an X-Factor.

X-Factor it was.

I lost on my short bet but did actually go long Bitcoin as soon as $580 was breached...then I sold at $604...two seconds later, it crashed to $582 HA FOOLS! Oh wait a minute, it is now $618, I had better buy back in....wash rinse repeat.

Not knocking them

my TA was hardly 'advanced' and somewhat tongue in cheek.

SlipperySlope

hero member

Activity: 686

Merit: 501

Stephen Reed

Quote from: rpietila on February 27, 2014, 01:56:26 PM

The capitulation happened already. If you did not feel it, the reason is that here in the oldtimer threads in Bitcointalk people knew what was coming and were not afraid. Outside, people and media and newbies were, and still are, asking if Bitcoin is dead. There was blood on the streets. Don't expect that it will turn worse. It cannot. It can only go up from here.

Wisdom. And ironic that a problem with Mt.Gox was again significant in the collapse.

MatTheCat

hero member

Activity: 840

Merit: 1000

Quote from: sgbett on March 03, 2014, 10:16:33 PM

Quote from: MatTheCat on March 03, 2014, 07:19:47 PM

This is the quality TA thread, right?

Does anyone want to analyse the double pennant formation on Stamp right now? The second has formed at a lower level than the first.

Here is my analysis:

The price went up, then it went down a bit, then it went up and down. I think this indicates that over the next few days the price will go up and down. You should probably buy if you have cash you don't mind losing, and sell if you are short of cash.

Shit. Wrong thread, that should have been in trading 101.

Hey, don't knock the MatTheCat 101 threads.

Just read over my 101 possible break out analysis....pretty good as it turned out, except I ended backing the wrong of the two horses. One looked increasingly like a foregone conclusion, the other required an X-Factor.

X-Factor it was.

I lost on my short bet but did actually go long Bitcoin as soon as $580 was breached...then I sold at $604...two seconds later, it crashed to $582 HA FOOLS! Oh wait a minute, it is now $618, I had better buy back in....wash rinse repeat.

sgbett

legendary

Activity: 2576

Merit: 1087

Quote from: MatTheCat on March 03, 2014, 07:19:47 PM

This is the quality TA thread, right?

Does anyone want to analyse the double pennant formation on Stamp right now? The second has formed at a lower level than the first.

Here is my analysis:

The price went up, then it went down a bit, then it went up and down. I think this indicates that over the next few days the price will go up and down. You should probably buy if you have cash you don't mind losing, and sell if you are short of cash.

Shit. Wrong thread, that should have been in trading 101.

CookieFactory

member

Activity: 118

Merit: 19

I actually did buy some more coins a couple days back so thanks for that Cheesy

What are the chances that we'll go up to around 710-720, fail to break out, and head back down from there?

Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 309. (Read 907212 times)