rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 328.

Carlton Banks

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: chessnut on February 13, 2014, 07:39:00 AM

thanks - but in theory this cannot truly be exponential, perhaps more like an 'S' curve so they say. certainly exponential growth is a component.

You are right , S-curve is the (very)long term trend

but keep in mind that the S-curve for a certain time window may grow faster than the exponential

As well as slower.

It's amusing to think that all the divergences from the trendline will appear like tiny sampling errors once the overall shape of the growth curve is established (an effect that's already evident when you look at the current long term linear price chart). And the extent to which the current trendline can be altered by these divergences signifies just how immature this market still is. It seems like the next 18 months may generate a turning point in this characteristic though, certainly if all the promised professional investment bodies actually become involved. We will see.

Pruden

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Spanish Bitcoin trader

Quote from: ?? on ??

I understand exponential growth but who chose 10 as the exponent?

The best-fit exponential curve is +23.5%/month, which is x12.6/year. The base, not the exponent, would be 12.6.

"x10" is thus a round, conservative number.

chessnut

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Quote from: ?? on ??

I wouldnt expect it to be very accurate, but I wouldnt be surprised if in a market of critical mass things grew at a scientific rate. I dont know what the formula is though.

the theoritical formula is simple: exponential growth
rats and rabbits theoretically follow the Fibonacci series

edit: read above for a more accurate explanation of the exponential growth

thanks - but in theory this cannot truly be exponential, perhaps more like an 'S' curve so they say. certainly exponential growth is a component.

rpietila

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What is The Trendline.

Basically it is a price that grows every month 23.5%, which means a double in every 99 days. If we are above the trendline price of that date, bitcoin is overvalued. Below it is undervalued. It is calculated from the average rate of growth over the past 5.1 years.

Currently we are right on the trendline, or a little bit below it. Bitcoin is not expensive any more, but past experience suggests that we go significantly below the trendline in the near future. This can happen in the following ways:
- Price drops.
- We stabilize around this level for such a long time (~3 months) that the trendline rises enough.

Of course trendline has no magical ability to forecast the price (and it also changes albeit little all the time). In the past it has been a reliable +EV tool to time entry and exit points in the very slow swing trade (a few trades per year).

GreekGeek

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Jesus was a (Goddamn) hippy socialist

http://www.forbes.com/sites/leoking/2014/02/13/mt-gox-ceo-mark-karpeles-responds-to-widespread-bitcoin-criticism/

chessnut

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In December, when I made the estimate for $400 bottom in January-March time, I based it solely on trendline analysis. The
I understand what the market price is, but I don't know, how it is based on the priced of last december. I mean, good news make the price go higher, bad news make the price go lower. So how are this news connected to the prices 6 weeks ago? Do Gox only have this problems and in this time, because there were some trend line in december?
[/quote]

At this stage, good/bad news does not entail commercial demand/supply at all, only demand/supply to come because the infrastructure still needs to grow. all the swings are caused by the speculators, that must orbit around an average because it's a zero sum game.

porcupine87

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hm

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: porcupine87 on February 13, 2014, 04:11:08 AM

Quote from: rpietila on February 12, 2014, 06:39:15 AM

Quote from: TERA on February 12, 2014, 06:32:31 AM

Hi rpietila. When you made you estimate of the bottom, did you factor in potential bad news such as exchanges all screwing up, protocol exploits, and government bans, or will it go lower now? Does it make a difference?

In December, when I made the estimate for $400 bottom in January-March time, I based it solely on trendline analysis. The trendline in turn, takes into account everything that happens in the infrastructure or anywhere else.

I do not think that it will go lower, ie. $300s on a permanent basis, but may very well dip there, or even $100, temporarily, just like BTCe already did.

Midterm I would be more than content if 500 was accepted as a fair price and volatility would calm down.

But what has the trendline of december to do with the future? When you go with your car, do you try to predict the the next curve based on your look into your driving mirror? I mean, what has the price of decemeber to do with the price on february?

Sorry, you might be right, but I can not understand it. The only possible chance that I see for your analyisis is, that there are a significant amount of trades who think like you. Otherwise it is just like predicting the pips of a dice... Based on the trendline I guess 1-3 pipes

the trendline is the average price, bulls and bears fight over the average price. its a zero sum game, so the bulls and bears equate to no net change. the average represents the genuine and growing commercial demand, or the 'fair' price. I dont know why you cant see that is a legitimate edge.

I understand what the market price is, but I don't know, how it is based on the priced of last december. I mean, good news make the price go higher, bad news make the price go lower. So how are this news connected to the prices 6 weeks ago? Do Gox only have this problems and in this time, because there were some trend line in december?

porcupine87

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hm

Quote from: rpietila on February 12, 2014, 06:39:15 AM

Quote from: TERA on February 12, 2014, 06:32:31 AM

Hi rpietila. When you made you estimate of the bottom, did you factor in potential bad news such as exchanges all screwing up, protocol exploits, and government bans, or will it go lower now? Does it make a difference?

In December, when I made the estimate for $400 bottom in January-March time, I based it solely on trendline analysis. The trendline in turn, takes into account everything that happens in the infrastructure or anywhere else.

I do not think that it will go lower, ie. $300s on a permanent basis, but may very well dip there, or even $100, temporarily, just like BTCe already did.

Midterm I would be more than content if 500 was accepted as a fair price and volatility would calm down.

But what has the trendline of december to do with the future? When you go with your car, do you try to predict the the next curve based on your look into your driving mirror? I mean, what has the price of decemeber to do with the price on february?

Sorry, you might be right, but I can not understand it. The only possible chance that I see for your analyisis is, that there are a significant amount of trades who think like you. Otherwise it is just like predicting the pips of a dice... Based on the trendline I guess 1-3 pipes

Tzupy

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The 500$ wall was partially eaten, partially pulled. Not let's see how deep it falls.
The last brick of the wall was 500 BTC buy. 120 were eaten, the rest pulled.
And now it's back. This is going to be fun to watch.

The replenishment of the 500$ wall got eaten and now there's a sell wall at 500$.

traderCJ

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Quote from: rpietila on February 12, 2014, 06:39:15 AM

Quote from: TERA on February 12, 2014, 06:32:31 AM

Hi rpietila. When you made you estimate of the bottom, did you factor in potential bad news such as exchanges all screwing up, protocol exploits, and government bans, or will it go lower now? Does it make a difference?

In December, when I made the estimate for $400 bottom in January-March time, I based it solely on trendline analysis. The trendline in turn, takes into account everything that happens in the infrastructure or anywhere else.

I do not think that it will go lower, ie. $300s on a permanent basis, but may very well dip there, or even $100, temporarily, just like BTCe already did.

Midterm I would be more than content if 500 was accepted as a fair price and volatility would calm down.

I have to hand it to you, you called this one. As I type this, the 500 wall at Gox is being chipped away, which will probably pull the rest down into the low $600s once it breaks through. As the days tick by with no Goxdrawals, the price will continue to slide .. and your $400 bottom may just well come to fruition.

CryptStorm

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Quote from: Carlton Banks on February 11, 2014, 09:45:52 PM

gmaxwell confirms it : https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.5091537

It sounds like there's a fix to block the actual attack, instead of just working around it.

As always, reading your notes, 'Mr. Banks', is refreshingly illuminating-- thank you, sincerely!

Ivanhoe

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Are you sure you didn't know about the wallet exploit ( not protocol exploit, the protocol is fine ) and priced that in? A lot of insiders knew about this already, i can imagine you are one of us since you are heavily invested as well.

rpietila

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Quote from: TERA on February 12, 2014, 06:32:31 AM

Hi rpietila. When you made you estimate of the bottom, did you factor in potential bad news such as exchanges all screwing up, protocol exploits, and government bans, or will it go lower now? Does it make a difference?

In December, when I made the estimate for $400 bottom in January-March time, I based it solely on trendline analysis. The trendline in turn, takes into account everything that happens in the infrastructure or anywhere else.

I do not think that it will go lower, ie. $300s on a permanent basis, but may very well dip there, or even $100, temporarily, just like BTCe already did.

Midterm I would be more than content if 500 was accepted as a fair price and volatility would calm down.

TERA

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Hi rpietila. When you made you estimate of the bottom, did you factor in potential bad news such as exchanges all screwing up, protocol exploits, and government bans, or will it go lower now? Does it make a difference?

creekbore

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Lazy, cynical and insolent since 1968

Apologies to Risto if I have added to the clutter....image removed. Undecided

rpietila

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Quote from: windjc on February 12, 2014, 01:08:22 AM

Quote from: creekbore on February 11, 2014, 11:41:34 PM

Quote from: MoreFun on February 11, 2014, 02:48:47 PM

Risto did we have final capitulation from last april bubble (by your rules)?

There were so much talk in the summer about $50 capitulation coins in jan-feb.2014.

This is a great point. In the period June - October 2013 there were multiple threads and theories which explained very persuasively that BTC could not and would not post a new ATH until we reached the mythic 'capitulation' price, which IIRC was suggested to be USD60. The rest as they say is history.

So, where does that leave us and where does it leave the validity of TA when applied to a market such as crypto.

Quote from: rpietila on February 11, 2014, 04:46:35 PM

Then there is the February 14, which alone is a reason to sell your coins NOW. Wink

Which falls on a Friday this year, too. I think at least an exaggerated weekend dip is possible.

Quote from: windjc on February 11, 2014, 06:29:07 PM

No, he is saying that people like you are making this forum a shithole.

If you want to change people's behaviour, the best place to start is with your own.

Yeah, I was a bit harsh.

You just posted a dead cupid. Interestingly enough, I made a comment about how Valentine's Day was bearish for men and reptelia delete my post. Lol. WTF?

The thread quality has deteriorated rapidly. In your case you quoted a pageful of stuff and added a oneliner, and the whole was in turn later quoted by another poster. This is against the thread rules and known moderating procedures in my threads.

Bolded for emphasis, to make it stand out from clutter, not that I needed to shout or anything

Only the fact that I am busy, restricts me from deleting much more now.

Asrael999

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Quote from: rpietila on February 11, 2014, 02:00:36 PM

Quote from: isov on February 11, 2014, 01:45:04 PM

Could it now start to be looking like final capitulation or something? At least there is quite big volume for this past week and if you zoom enough out on the chart it looks like it just might have been long enough to go up. I tend to think that the cycles of rallies are getting faster and more close to each other and on 3day and 1week charts it looks something like last april and beyond that on faster speed?

No.

The price is too high relative to the trend (about 0). Currently 400 daily average would suffice.

Also no panic, no desperation.

ADD: And we seem to have some real Bitcoinwide issues at hand. I am surprised why price is so high tbh! I can't withdraw or spend my bitcoin, but I can still sell them at Bitstamp and get fiat out of it.

I am curious as to why you are maintaining your 400 daily average level. If I look at your other post in the economics section where you posted your regression calculation your trend line would now be in the mid/high 600's a level which Bitstamp is currently below. WHile I have nothing against you having a public and seperate propriatary model I am curious as to why they diverge so much, what additional assumptions you are making or what you are looking at in addition.

creekbore

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Lazy, cynical and insolent since 1968

Quote from: windjc on February 12, 2014, 01:08:22 AM

Quote from: creekbore on February 11, 2014, 11:41:34 PM

Quote from: MoreFun on February 11, 2014, 02:48:47 PM

Risto did we have final capitulation from last april bubble (by your rules)?

There were so much talk in the summer about $50 capitulation coins in jan-feb.2014.

This is a great point. In the period June - October 2013 there were multiple threads and theories which explained very persuasively that BTC could not and would not post a new ATH until we reached the mythic 'capitulation' price, which IIRC was suggested to be USD60. The rest as they say is history.

So, where does that leave us and where does it leave the validity of TA when applied to a market such as crypto.

Quote from: rpietila on February 11, 2014, 04:46:35 PM

Then there is the February 14, which alone is a reason to sell your coins NOW. Wink

Which falls on a Friday this year, too. I think at least an exaggerated weekend dip is possible.

Quote from: windjc on February 11, 2014, 06:29:07 PM

No, he is saying that people like you are making this forum a shithole.

If you want to change people's behaviour, the best place to start is with your own.

Yeah, I was a bit harsh.

You just posted a dead cupid. Interestingly enough, I made a comment about how Valentine's Day was bearish for men and reptelia delete my post. Lol. WTF?

It was meant as a reference to the St Valentine's Day Massacre rather than any comment on either romanticism or gender therein: rather than a picture of the actual massacre (which are mostly surprisingly graphic) I thought this was simultaneously classical/baroque, witty and shocking. As may Friday's drop.

windjc

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Quote from: creekbore on February 11, 2014, 11:41:34 PM

Quote from: MoreFun on February 11, 2014, 02:48:47 PM

Risto did we have final capitulation from last april bubble (by your rules)?

There were so much talk in the summer about $50 capitulation coins in jan-feb.2014.

This is a great point. In the period June - October 2013 there were multiple threads and theories which explained very persuasively that BTC could not and would not post a new ATH until we reached the mythic 'capitulation' price, which IIRC was suggested to be USD60. The rest as they say is history.

So, where does that leave us and where does it leave the validity of TA when applied to a market such as crypto.

Quote from: rpietila on February 11, 2014, 04:46:35 PM

Then there is the February 14, which alone is a reason to sell your coins NOW. Wink

Which falls on a Friday this year, too. I think at least an exaggerated weekend dip is possible.

Quote from: windjc on February 11, 2014, 06:29:07 PM

No, he is saying that people like you are making this forum a shithole.

If you want to change people's behaviour, the best place to start is with your own.

Yeah, I was a bit harsh.

You just posted a dead cupid. Interestingly enough, I made a comment about how Valentine's Day was bearish for men and reptelia delete my post. Lol. WTF?

keithers

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This is the land of wolves now & you're not a wolf

Quote from: sgbett on February 11, 2014, 05:10:40 PM

Quote from: windjc on February 11, 2014, 04:26:03 PM

Quote from: rpietila on February 11, 2014, 04:21:09 PM

Mixed signals. Trendline suggests we are still high. Also the bottoms so far this week have been flashcrashes with quick rebounds. (This has not been a property of the prior final capitulations, rather of the beginning of them.) Not enough negative sentiment, everybody is still hopeful. Even goxbtc trades at higher than is realistic imo. There are also negative events that could still happen.

Feeling of fear is a good sign, but not yet the sign to buy if the price is not there.

You have some really good points. I do not know where you are seeing the "everybody is still hopeful." I mean, I am hopeful mainly because of the eco-system and the fairly positive response of US regulators. Besides that, even I, who am a "perma-bull" am not very hopeful of the current price. I feel fear. Others, if you have been watching closely, have either gone silent (Mbtac) or have said they are quitting. Plus there is a massive influx of trolls, with threads saying Bitcoin is going to die. DDosers smelled blood and went on the attack. Someone sold off 8000 BTC on btc-e. Crazy shit is going on everywhere.

I agree entirely with this. Compared to the 'to da moon' sentiment of 2-3 months ago. It's like night and day.

I don't think there are any permabulls posting at the moment who aren't feeling at least a little bit nervous.

The only sells I'll ever make are skimming a little play money. Significant trading for profit is not my bag. My primary goal for BTC is hedging its potential crash up, and so I sit and wait and watch.

My difficulty is when to commit more fiat. Experience has taught me not to try and second guess the price, so that leaves me with laddering down. I might not catch the bottom, I might not maximise my entry. I do guarantee that I take something out of this situation though.

Wow, good job, the above are my thoughts exactly...Coincidentally it is post #666 on the thread lol. I have been doing the exact same thing, and I am trying to find the price where I am comfortable throwing more cash at it. Just with all the chaos going on lately, I don't know at what price point that is...

Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 328. (Read 907227 times)