Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 9. (Read 907231 times)

Most people can't invested 10k in a god damn altcoin... get real. And sure, $200,000 dollars is awesome gains, but you aren't still rich, also it would have required that you sell at the peak.

With bitcoin, if you got in when it was worth cents, you still had a ton of margin to sell and still get rich. You could sell at 500 or at 1000, doesn't matter, if you got in early, you are rich as fuck.

With alts we haven't seen those amounts of gains unless:

1) You invested a lot (10k is a lot)
2) You sold at a very specific peak (extreme luck needed)

I don't see it. In any case, lets look at the future and search for other opportunities, we can't change the past. Problem is as we are saying, all alts suck and I don't see any of them delivering 4 figure % gains anymore.

Yes, the price is above 800 right now.  And according to you, that makes the model invalid.
Now you're thinking that the price must always hew precisely to the model.  The price is volatile.  The model is what my math professors used to call a "smooth" or well-behaved curve.
It models long term trend.
Also, these parameters (the constants) aren't set in stone.
Let your initial urge to react non-critically subside.  You need detachement, intellectual curiosity, and rigor, or this discussion isn't going to go anywhere.
The equation models an ideal logistic curve.
I submit that this is far superior to a naive model of mere exponential growth for the foreseeable future (see the exponential trend thread https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/beti-bitcoin-exponential-trend-index-and-technical-analysis-470453).

Plug in your own numbers, and you can get just about any result you want.  Set the inflection point a hundred years in the future, and you will get a curve that's almost indistinguishable from a pure exponential increase model for the span of your life.   I think you might like that better.

I set the inflection point at Jan 1, 2014, which puts us up against the asymptote.  I didn't use a computer to find the parameters, just pen, paper and the calculator on my cellphone.  And yet I think the R^2 on my curve is going to blow that exponential model in the other thread out of the water.

this can't be right , sorry, since denominator is above 1 making the result/product equal or below 800 in perpetuity.
we already know that it is above 800 right now.

.
D=days since Jan 1, 2009
price=$800/(1+e^(13.147-.0071989*D))

No. In ten years, $10000 is not the best case scenario. $10000 or above is the 40% probability.

OK, risto was very bullish of monero when it was, what, 30-40 cents? Did you invest? I did, but then replaced monero with eth and felt smug for a while. Who knew that eth spectacular run would end up (for the moment) in a ditch, while monero zoomed? There was your 20Xbagger or $200K for every 10K invested.

Maybe, but realistically, in 10 years, what can the price of bitcoin be... $10,000 best case scenario?

If you are holding 21, you will be sitting at $210,000, still not rich at all.

So you would need $100,000 per coin to retire, and by retire I mean in some cheap country so you don't run out of savings. With 21, you would be sitting at $2,100,000, after you sell, you will have to get it taxed and that cuts like up to half of your gains, so around $1,100,000 left... good, but not enough. And I doubt we'll see $100,000 unless something huge happens.

It's just too late to get rich off bitcoin. Alts? what's there? Monero? Give me a break, the anonymous coin hype is over, they pumped it with the dumb darkweb news, and bitcoin is still king of darweb. ETH is already done, too many fuckups with the DAO and so on. MAID never delivers, Steem was a mess, ZCash was an even bigger mess, ETC lottery pump already passed... ehh what the hell is left to get rich? bitcoin is the only long term coin to hold, and the rest of the coins are beaten horses.

"The harder I work, the luckier I get"
- Yogi Berra

I can't help but think that, in ten years, you'll be looking back at today in the full realization that $800 is a super cheap price.

Some form of lightning may exist, but isn't referring to it as a network a stretch?

How many lightning transactions have you made? To how many different counterparties?

The tricky point of being rich is that only the few can be so.

(edit) For some it comes quite naturally:
REPORT: Bernie Madoff dominates the hot chocolate market in prison
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/report-bernie-madoff-dominates-hot-174800307.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw

If you have 3 BTC, you are not getting rich anytime soon, unfortuantely I think not even in 20 years. The marketcap needed to reach 1 million per BTC is simply too high.

Probably not even 21 BTC is enough to get rich in a reasonble amount of time (and you would be holding 1 in a million coins)

We need something else. Holding bitcoin long term is a great idea, but we need something else unless you want to wait until you are 70 years old and cant get it up to get rich.

But we are talking about getting rich with a modest starting capital, which also means without risking much. Most of us are regular people going from bill to bill, so we would need tons of base hits to amount anywhere notable.. which statistically not going to happen (long term gambling always means you lose). The logical conclusion is as said before.. luck.
Right now we have the knowledge of cryptocurrencies being a booming market, but the problem is, there are no other contenders that could give us massive gains again like bitcoin, after bitcoin, so...

Pretty much true, but it is not always about home runs. A string of solid base hits may suffice.
It also depends on your starting capital, which was presumably ample already (in rpietila case).
Bitcoin was $160-170 as late as Jan 2015, only two years ago.
From $170 to $820 is solid 382%, which is outstanding for 24 mo.
Besides, it all depends on how large Bitcoin becomes (and how soon).
After all, there is or will be only 0.003 btc per ea earth inhabitant (on average).
Having 3 BTC ($2.5K right now) will equal yourself to a thousand people worth of wealth (0.1% earth-wise).
In addition, at some point, I hope that we will be able to earn some kind of interest on bitcoin in bitcoin, not fiat (via LN or something else).

The number 1 thing you need to get rich like rpietila is luck. You need to be lucky, that's all. You need to be doing the right thing, at the right time. There's no other way to beat the time/money function. So as you said, you would need to get on something before most people get there, and all altcoins currently released have already gone throught that initial phase. There are no big gains to be made anymore unless you are already wealthy enough to invest like 10k which you will probably lose since most altcoins are dogshit. You can only hope to get some pumps here and there and who wants to risk their money in a casino. We would need a new solid project that challenges bitcoin and there's nothing like that anymore.

You can luck around at forex and so on but I dont see anything exciting.

But you will never get rich doing dollar cost average. Sure, if you keep buying 100 bucks out of bitcoin every month at whatever price, eventually the price will rise giving you profits. But we are looking at what... $1000 dollars worth of profit when the next 1500 ish pump happens before it corrects again when china or whever comes up with another "rumor" that crashes the price?

In order to get rich you need to get in at a super cheap price like rpietila did. If you want to get rich from bitcoin now, you better have at least 100 BTC and be ready to wait 10 to 20+ years (and by rich I don't even mean rich, but maybe hit your first million). Other than that forget it. We would need another coin, and there is no other coin that can realistically give us 5000%+ gains in the time period bitcoin delivered (with enough liquidity and volume, forget about lame pumps with low volume from random alts). XMR already pumped hard, the hype for the anonymous coins is over. ETH already pumped and now it just stagnates, hype for smart contracts is over.
There is nothing new under the sun that could make us rich, and who cares about making a couple hundred, it's all about getting rich and avoiding the rat race.

Wrong, lightning network is already being tested

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_BsaPl87HQA

alpha release:

http://lightning.community/release/software/lnd/lightning/2017/01/10/lightning-network-daemon-alpha-release/

stop talking about vaporware, lightning network is very real.


That would mean bitcoin is a centralized mess where only server farms run nodes, so governments and global attackers can easily neuter it, making it useless beyond a retarded hipster token.

have you even looked at how BU works?

market-driven blocksize, dude!

For whom? Not holders of Bitcoin that's for sure.

Increasing blocksize compromises security (by compromising the insensitive of those providing the security: the miners) and compromises the distribution of the network (more expensive to run a node).

You want to compromise the two pillars beneath bitcoin (security and distribution) for growth? Really?

Is that a problem? Are there not lessons you have learned in Kindergarten that are still applicable to life?


What if what is 'easiest' (evidently not, as it is so hard to get others to string along...) is also the most likely to succeed long term?


Exactly. What? Why does there need to be something else?


Then jump on the BU train. No hard fork now, no hard fork as larger blocks become part of the block chain, no hard forks ever. What could be better?