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The beauty of that is that there is no way Russia can do anything about it they just cannot compete on the soft power field.
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Only options for Russia is sit back and keep loosing countries in its sphere of influence and ultimately be torn apart, or radicalize become a dictatorship and switch the playing field to hard power.
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On regards to the RF becoming a dictatorship "in the future", I think that Moskva has sailed.
I think you have depicted the problem, but there is a solution. It is difficult for the RF to assume that its influence is in decline. It is not just the US, it is that all the world is moving ahead and the RF is not keeping the pace. Among other things, if you have the GDP of Italy and spend 11% of it in military you need to take it from schools, doctor, civil research, ... It is a problem of mindset.
This is some free consultancy for the RF:
Your objective is competing in a world that if itis growing fast. If you are left behind your people and the nation as such will not do well, no matter how many wars you fight.
- Develop the east. The territory is immense, the opportunities endless, you do not need to look further. I understand that as of now, there are political reasons why Moscow / St Petersburg would rather not do that, but long term it causes tensions.
- Attract investment, both local and foreign. You cannot do without it. See next point on how to enable that, but, as a hint, you should be seen as a pacific partner and stable on that regards.
- Put in place the enablers of growth: Rule of law, fair and speedy justice. This implies you need to get rid of the Cleptocrats and local despots, no way around that.
- Keep your strengths: good universities, good research, ability to manage complex projects, ...
- Use wisely the money that is coming from exporting natural resources. Try to build up the chain of value (e.g. do not export crude oil, but refined products).
- Do not enter into unnecessary wars. Your territory is quite protected and other than that your real threat is terrorism (the real one, not the guys with the "tatoos").
- Do not spend 11% of your GDP in weapons - it is not needed.
Life could be very different in the RF.
Why would US let RF prosper, especially considering it's proximity to China? You know what powerful nations want right? That combination is too dangerous and needs to be stopped at its infancy. Much easier to kneecap RF, take Ukraine out of it's sphere of influence and then it'd be great if that could sustain itself by forcing RF to continue to sell its resources to EU through Ukraine (so UA gets paid transit fees). That's the benefit of having a pact, on top of that you can freeze RF assets and bankrupt it anytime you wish. (That is unless they decide to stop playing such game for some reason)
Well, under that premise, you could argue that this war is actually helping US do so.
The US is not the only country in the world and, as far as I know, has until now only frozen assets when faced with very serious hostility. Freezing assets is not for free - the US is also getting a reputation hit on this.
It might initially seem so. Undercutting Russia in a proxy war without loosing a single American while making Europe totally depended on you, surely looks like a win/win. But there are no guarantees, the best think tanks can analyze the latest data live with best AI and machine learning but all they can propose is their estimated probabilities. Problem with that is if you're wrong you've actively pushed Russia and China together. The road to hell is paved with good intentions (This is well demonstrated by US sponsoring Osama bin Laden, and taking out Saddam Hussein only to create vacuum for ISIS to grow).
Russia drawing red lines over Ukraine/Belarus/Kazakhstan (Russian speaking countries) seems logical, on the other hand US getting billions from Saudi Arabia by selling them weapons and enabling war in Yemen, only to escalate conflict in Ukraine because US suddenly cares about freedom of Ukrainians seems insincere at best. Russia indicated that Ukraine was an existential threat to it and
Putin’s Domestic Approval Rating Reaches Highest Level In Five Years seems to indicate that people support that idea. US picking Ukraine as a hill to die on just seems more personal than a logical decision, and trying to sell it as if Ukraine protecting all of Europe is just silly with Article 5 and most of Europe being in NATO.
Now to still try and make it work US need to continue to escalate the conflict (first Javelin will be a game changer, MANPADS, then Switchblades, then much needed M777 howitzers, now even more desperately needed HIMARS, next will be
) and as you previously noted everything comes at a cost. Where does that leave Russia, either sit back and do nothing or since US is setting a precedent that selling long range missiles is now acceptable practice and doesn't make you a party to a conflict, Russia can starts selling latest anti-air and anti-ship missiles to Iran, how much do you think it'd take for them to close the straight of Hormuz? I'm sure Panam/Egypt can use cheap oil and some good anti-ship weapons and would like to get back control over Suez and Panama canals. Or how about a huge multi billion contract to supply hypersonic weapons to China? Will the world be better off with that? Probably not, will it help if media can easily blame the big Russian bear for it? Unlikely. They keep pushing the line and the whole world is forced to be a spectator in this new race to annihilation over Ukraine/Belarus/Chechnya/whatever...
Easiest way to start another war, just offer Taiwan to join NATO sit back and watch the "fireworks" fly. (Don't those poor Taiwanese deserve the freedom cookies and guarantees of freedom??)
Do you know what NATO stands for? North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Now, where is Taiwan located? Answer me.
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What is the support in Taiwan for joining continental China's government? Answer me.
Where is Turkey, a NATO member located? An Italy, and Greece, ...?
https://ontheworldmap.com/oceans-and-seas/atlantic-ocean/north-atlantic-ocean-map.jpgTurkey, Italy and Greece are connected to the Atlantic ocean through the mediterranean sea.
Well Taiwan is also connected to the Atlantic ocean through some body of water
don't get tied up on semantics, you need to see the forest behind the trees. Surely if US would deem in beneficial, adding the + to NATO
+ is the least of the problems.
Countries that support Russia (Africa, Middle East, South America and some asian countries) have a low quality of life, have a low level of education which means their society is less educated, have a low-quality healthcare system, have a high level of corruption, have a high level of nepotism, have a high level of crime.
Soviet Union closed borders to its countries to make them live in swampland, to not let them see a high quality of life that was outside the USSR, once the borders were open, people started to travel and started to experience new life, they analyzed the difference in the quality of life between the USSR and West. Do you know where emigrants from post-soviet countries go to work? In western countries, they send money from western countries to their countries, they have increased their wealth, built new houses and increased their quality of life. That's why they are afraid of Russia, they don't want to go back, instead, they want to join the western family.
Have you considered why it is so? Why Venezuela, Lybia, Iran and Saudi Arabia are where they are? Or where those billions in aid and investments to needing countries around Russia come from? How Ukraine having higher corruption and lower GDP than Russia managed to totally revamp it's military in just 8yrs? Must be that ghost of Kyiv, or the soft power directing targeted fund exactly where they're needed.