Topic: Russia's economy is 'imploding' on export decline, economists claim - page 4. (Read 3923 times)

Not enough reason for us to sit back and think that Russia will yield and give up. For all we know they have allies that would help them fund the war of attrition that they have subjected themselves against Ukraine with. Not to mention the fact that they probably have enough funding to keep at this war 10 times over, so this "implosion" so to speak may affect the economy of Russia, it may even kill the morale of its citizens, but until Putin signs that treaty of peace they won't be stopping this war any time soon.

I'm just hoping no more countries are to intervene against this war besides the conventional support that they give out, once more countries actively join this war this will mean hell for a lot of us and may even escalate to a continental/global war.

Even if the American F-16s were produced in the seventies of the last century, and the Soviet ones, now used in the war by both Russia and Ukraine, were produced in the eighties, in many respects the “outdated” F-16 is superior to modern analogues of Russian, and even more so Ukrainian models .
Unlike the F-16, the MiG-29, for example, has not been developed since the early 1980s and is considered obsolete, while the F-16 has gone through several modifications. Today it has about 15 variants, the last of which are still produced for export.

If we compare endurance, that is, the maximum time after which the aircraft must be written off, since it becomes unsafe to fly, then the first modifications of the F-16 had a service life of 8 thousand hours. This means that with a normal number of flights, their operation is designed for 40 years. Today, the United States is considering the possibility of extending the service life to another 10 or 12 thousand hours, that is, the aircraft will be able to be used until 2048.
The situation with the MiG-29 is completely different. Initially, they had a resource of only 2.5 thousand hours, and later ones - up to 4 thousand. In other words, half as much, that is, the operation of Soviet fighters is designed for a maximum of 20 years.

The MiG-29 has good speed and slightly higher maneuverability, which gives it the ability to turn 180 degrees two seconds earlier, so the MiG-29 is good in close combat, but in fighter aircraft the advantage goes to the one who detects the enemy first.
The best modifications of Soviet (Russian) fighters with their onboard radar can “see” air targets at a range of more than 200 km and carry out air-to-air missile attacks at a range of 75 km. At the same time, the F-16 can engage air targets at a range of about 300 km and carry out attacks at a range twice that of the enemy, without entering the range of enemy fighters and ground-based air defense systems.

But what makes the F-16 even better is its avionics. Modern versions are equipped with the AN/APG-83 radar, which is simultaneously capable of tracking up to 35 targets and allows firing at 8 of them. In this case, targets can be both air and ground; there is no need to switch modes. At the same time, radars even on modernized MiG-29s (in Russian service) track up to 10 targets and allow attacking only one. And they are completely incapable of identifying ground targets. Moreover, the pilot must highlight the air target with radar before it is destroyed.

Russia in theory could ask Cuba how to survive for decades isolated from the world and manage anyway.   The scenario where Russia carries on with its economy regardless is more then viable its just we dont think they will do as well in isolation, of course trade will carry on but in some impaired way.  Even in oil and gas which is their strong point and in demand, Russia lacks proper development & efficiency that would come from involvement internationally to improve all their assets; same is true of many countries like Iraq has failed to invest in its oil fields for decades and they are worse off from that failure in efficiency.    Some commodity projects can take an entire decade to start and establish, this war is destroying their ability to start what is already overdue in addition to other failures the list must be enough to fill a book by now.
  I do think Russia loses far more then it could have gained from any success in this war, I'd say the same of almost any country its better to do plain business then kill and hope for profit from destruction.  Only a singularly small minded person would think otherwise, for an entire nation a giant country growing in size like Russia its definitely true they are far worse off as a people with war , death and waste.  There was no need to conqueror any country when they are already seeing large land gains from the permafrost melting, thats a giant change and they already lack the people, resources, creative companies to make the most of that.

Here the rule “The enemy of my enemy is my friend” can be used, since China, India, and any other country that buys Russian products at low prices will sell them to the countries that need them (Europe) at very high prices. For Russia to sell these products at very low prices could serve its goals for the following reasons:
- It has surplus production that it must dispose of at any price, in addition to the fact that China and India are distant regions, and the cost of transportation is what reduces the price the most.
- It sells these products to its allies who are in an undeclared confrontation with Europe and NATO.
- In the best cases, Europe will be forced to buy Russian products through an intermediary at high prices, which is better than getting nothing.

Sorry for going OT but I wonder what aircraft you consider "obsolete", specially when you compare it with F-16 which you refer to as "latest weapons"!!!
The fighter jets that Ukraine has/had were MiG-29 (introduced on 1983), Su-24 (1974), Su-25 (1981), Su-27 (1984). None of these are considered obsolete specially when compared with F-16 (introduced 1978)! which is older than 90% of what Ukraine had before!

I have to say you're wrong.
Russia has lost any value it may have had. At the moment it is just a raw material appendage of China and India, which using the situation "screwed" Russia, buying oil from it for fancy money, refining it and selling it to the EU for Euros and dollars.

No one in BRICS takes Russia seriously as a world leader, as they understand its toxicity. There are a couple of countries that are "friends" for the money Russia gives them.... But friendship will end as soon as the flow of "gifts" dries up.  Russia is not creating any alliances, at the moment it is trying to destabilize other regions in its usual manner, this is a classic terrorist tactic.

In BRICS and "global south" now the key player is INDIA, and no one mentions Russia as even slightly significant participant.

The only thing russia is valuable for is lake Baikal. it is the largest storehouse of drinking water in the world. But it's starting to take over. China, which will break Russia's back if it doesn't give this resource to China. Moreover, Russia itself has given China an excuse to talk about "historical territories of China", which for the time being, temporarily belong to Russia

It can be considered that the confrontation this time was between equal forces, such that neither party could completely weaken the other. The sanctions failed to dissuade Russia from war despite their significant negative impact on the Russian economy, given that Europe is the most useful market for Russia. But the Western powers did not take into account Russia's vital role in the region and the world. With the expansion of Russian alliances around the world, Europe will isolate itself if it continues its policy of sanctions.
Today, Russia has ten important partners within the BRICS alliance alone, and they are the largest economies distributed across the three largest continents: Asia, Africa, and South America. This will further tighten the pressure on European countries.

In order to understand what the UN is, and how corrupt it is, and how it is a corrupt organization that does not fulfill its goals at all, a little information is in order:
BILD claims to have gained access to a secret letter from UN Secretary-General Guterres to Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

In it, Guterres offers Russia:
- Bypass sanctions imposed on the Russian agricultural bank;
- Insurance of ships against Ukrainian attacks;
- Assistance in unblocking frozen fertilizer assets;
- Permission to enter European ports with its products.

Reference to the source: https://m.bild.de/bild-plus/politik/ausland/politik-ausland/guterres-und-lawrow-schmieden-finsteren-plan-un-komplott-soll-aggressor-russland-85328612.bildMobile.html

Now the UN cannot even condemn Russia’s aggressive and piracy actions towards Ukraine, since Russia is a permanent member of the Security Council of this international organization and blocks all decisions it does not like. This is absolutely wrong and needs to be corrected, but it is impossible to correct it since Russia is against any UN decisions directed against it. This is a complete collapse of the UN as a permanent body and does not fulfill its functions.

If Russia uses nuclear weapons, it will not change anything, but the situation will sharply worsen for everyone, including Russia. Countries such as the USA, China, and India have long warned Russia not to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Therefore, if Putin decides to do this, Russia will definitely find himself in complete diplomatic and economic isolation. And the consequences of a nuclear explosion will be very negative both for Russia itself and for Europe, which are difficult to calculate in advance. But this will not change anything for Ukraine; it will still defend itself, but it will be more difficult for Russia to attack it.

The Ukrainian government has already stated that Ukraine will not negotiate with the current Putin regime, since Putin does not comply with any agreements. In addition, Putin perceives any negotiations as a manifestation of the weakness of the other side and all his negotiations boil down to the demand for the actual capitulation of Ukraine and the presentation of territorial claims to it, which is unacceptable for Ukraine.

First of all I apologize for intruding on your conversation, secondly - unfortunately your idea doesn't make sense.
I'll even explain.
This war has no logical explanation. No, there are a lot of monthly changing "official reasons" from the talking heads in the Kremlin. But we all realize that these are attempts to justify their crimes and manipulate their masses of population.
This war has one idea and one goal. The idea is Putin's manic fear of Ukraine as an example of what to do with an idiot president. This is what I mean about 2013-2014 when the people of Ukraine legally deposed the criminal president Yanukovych who was building the same power scheme in Ukraine as had already been built in Russia. And Putin's goal is the same - to DESTROY Ukraine so that the Kremlin slaves will always forget about it.
Plus he has played the game and decided that he is GOD on earth and can do whatever he wants and nothing will happen to him for it. You may remember Moldova, Azerbaijan, Ichkeria, Georgia. Until then, the whole world sat by and watched in silence...
And most importantly, if you look at the treaties and commitments that Russia has signed from 2000 to today - most of them, Russia just... FORGOT and violated them. I will just remind you of RUSSIA's obligations under the Budapest Memorandum, as well as the many interstate treaties between Ukraine and Russia "on friendship and good-neighborliness" and "on respect, acceptance of borders and independence" - which Russia also forgot and ignored in 2014.
Who to AGREE with? With a potential liar ? And one whose word is worthless ?

Russia's war is artificial because when the war started the West thought they had won and Russia would not be able to take any major steps forward because of their various They were overjoyed that Russia wouldn't catch up with them etc. but they didn't know that they shot themselves in the foot because of the economic condition of Russia since the start of the war Various countries have imposed restrictions on them, as a result of which their production has not stopped and the annual growth rate of production etc. has increased much more. Their economic condition is better than before Currently, their economic status is above about 64% which was lower earlier
After the start of the war in Russia, the European countries that had oil markets were not buying oil due to the embargo on the state, which they thought would make them unable to sell oil to Russia.But Russia's oil sales have increased since their sanctions because China and India, Russia's biggest oil buyers, are now buying several times more oil than they used to As a result of the purchase, Russia's economy is getting stronger
Economists who claim that Russia's exports have decreased as a result of the war, more than half of them are economists in the Western world, I do not think are correct because Russia's current economic situation is on It is a special day for Russia because of the good war, it has deepened its relations with many countries that were not possible before, especially with the region.European countries tried and failed to shut down the pipelines with which Russia used to export oil to various countries.Many countries, including Germany, Poland, could not stop pipelines such as Nord Steam One, Nord Steam Two, etc.Russia's economic situation is not so weak that a few states can bring them down with sanctions, they will never stand up and continue to infuriate Russia and escalate the war is helping and Russia is attacking harder and showing its power which sees the western world in misery, and they will be left wondering what to do if not their economic Such doctrines are expressed.Any war helps change a country either for better or for worse In the case of Russia, there is a bright side We may see more sanctions ahead, but I don't see that as an end to the war because the Russian president said yesterday that the West is unethically putting forward various proposals that It is possible for Russia to accept
Finally I can say that the Russian economy will not suffer from the loss of exports because the disaster will not only happen to Russia but also to the Western world and the damage will be long-term The underdeveloped and developing countries will suffer the most, so it is most important to stop the war and if Russia's exports return to normal with all countries, the wheels of the world economy will continue to spin beautifully It is possible to recover from the disaster that has been caused by Covid-19.

The rules and regulations are ours to establish. We can modify them if things need to be fixed. Suppose the US and EU do not use sanctions to restrain Russia's rise. Russia will quickly level Ukraine. I don't know what this campaign means. But Russia is destroying Ukraine and its innocent people. It is affecting the global economy. Putin also announced the withdrawal of Russia from the New START Treaty. What do you think if Russia used nuclear weapons?
Russia and Ukraine should sit at the negotiating table to make things better.

I still feel like this is not something sustainable. Its not possible to keep imploding yourself, even USA or China cannot compete with world economies with this method. You will always need to import things that do not exist in your country or things you can perfectly produce. You can keep on going with imperfect production but in long run other economies will benefit through trade and beat you. I think Russia needs imports, in long run, sure.

If the international economic sanctions imposed on Russia because of its military attack on Ukraine seem absurd to you, because they do not give the desired effect, offer your options on how to get Russia to stop killing Ukrainians and return to compliance with international norms and rules of conduct. International institutions such as the UN are currently incapacitated. The UN, which is called upon to respond quickly to such acts of aggression, cannot even condemn Russia's actions, let alone expel it from the Security Council, if only because the Russian Federation is illegally in the UN, since no one is in this organization did not accept.

As expected, not a single argument against, not a single thought, but a primitive infantile attempt to "offend" 

Fool, I already explained to you - I served from March 2022 to December 2022 in the Territorial Defense, demobilized after being wounded So I fulfilled my part of the duty of a citizen - I defended my country and my people, and fulfilled the duty of a civilized person - destroyed the new Nazism. And now I continue to provide maximum assistance to the guys at the front

Where are you and how? Therefore, you do not save the "Russian-speaking population", do not fight "with NATO"? The answer is expected to be infantile-idiotic, I really look forward to the answer 

But I will leave the problems of psychiatry, and return to the topic. So the news about the "successes of great Russia." Although using the phrase "success" and "Russia" is also from the field of psychiatry, so I put it in quotation marks

And let's start with real clinical psychiatry
- Stalin became the third most popular political leader of the past among Russians. Can you imagine what people have in their brains if they glorify a SADIST who destroyed the citizens of the USSR more than Nazi Germany?

The news is most likely paired:
- Russia is in a demographic hole.
but they are trying to fix the situation
- In Russia, the number of sexual crimes committed by military personnel has sharply increased

And news from the "friends of Russia":
- Hungary supported Zelensky's peace plan!
- Abkhazia rejected Medvedev's idea of becoming part of Russia - they finally understood what the "Russian world" is, and breaks out of its bloody embrace.

Russia had a chance to take over Ukraine, at least temporarily, in the early days of the invasion in February 2022. At that time, the leadership of Ukraine did not believe in a full-scale invasion of the Russian army into Ukraine, despite the fact that eight Russian armies were at the borders of Ukraine for many months under the pretext of their exercises. Therefore, Ukraine did not prepare defense lines and minefields. But Putin chose the wrong tactic, trying to intimidate the Ukrainians with the scale of the invasion of his armored forces at a time when, due to the wrong season and weather, she could only move along the well-maintained roads of Ukraine. Therefore, they became a good target for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, when these armored columns several tens of kilometers long got stuck in traffic jams artificially created by the Armed Forces of Ukraine and shot them from the side as if in a shooting gallery. Subsequently, this was the reason for the rapid withdrawal of this heavy military equipment from the central and northern regions of Ukraine in order not to completely lose it there.

Now the situation has changed radically, and not in favor of Russia. Russia has already lost a significant part of its professional army and military equipment on the fields of Ukraine. So, according to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Russia has lost about 260 thousand of its soldiers and officers, 4375 tanks, 8511 armored vehicles, 315 aircraft, 316 helicopters, 5333 artillery systems, 723 MLRS, 494 air defense systems, 7773 various automotive military equipment and tanks, 4344 UAVs, 801 special equipment. The Russian army is now forced to reactivate its military equipment since the Second World War. Of course, this technique is also still capable of shooting, and there will still be stubborn bloody battles. But Russia is unlikely to be able to count on successful large-scale operations with the capture of significant Ukrainian territories.

On the other hand, Ukraine, although slowly, is being supplied by other countries with the latest weapons. On the way, by the end of the year, already the first fifty F-16 fighters. If Ukraine has been quite successful in this year and a half with 120 obsolete Soviet aircraft, then with the F-16 and long-range missiles, the Russians will be even more disappointed by the current war of aggression in Ukraine.

Oh our little lying propagandist shill friend is still here? Why don't you join your heroic compatriots, the "warriors of light" on the front lines? They are waiting for you in trenches, some cannon fodder is always welcome. Russia is about to launch an attack on Harkiv, immediately after they'll capture Kupyansk. So every soldier counts.


OMG this is so logical, the most logical thing I've read this year. No means yes. No sources, no proof, nothing. OMG, what a bozo... 

Meanwhile, Ukraine gets mad on the Western journalists for reporting huge casualties and bans them from entering the areas where fighting is going on:


Source: https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2023-08-22-le-temps--kiev-almost-completely-banned-foreign-media-from-traveling-to-the-front-line.SyZUDkxMa3.html

Another block of news from a country with a "strong secured ruble, stable economy" on which "the whole world depends"

- Russian regions are left without fuel at gas stations. Gasoline has begun to disappear from gas stations in Russian regions, and in agrarian regions there is a shortage of diesel fuel, Izvestia reports with reference to representatives of the fuel business.
- Russians will see bread prices rise sharply after Putin's decision to pull out of the grain deal. Russian bread producers are preparing to sharply raise prices for their products in the fall.  According to them, bread may rise in price by 10% due to sanctions, the collapse of the ruble and, among other things, Russia's withdrawal from the grain deal.
- More than a quarter of Russians admitted to a complete lack of savings. Given that in Russia it is common to understate negative data - most likely 50% do not have a penny of reserves.
- Cabs across Russia will switch to Lada despite the protests of drivers
- Audi, following BMW and Mercedes, disconnected Russian dealers from the software
- Health Ministry urged hospitals to prepare for the disappearance of nearly 200 drugs
- Russian arms sales abroad have plummeted more than threefold
- Russia can't get $39 billion for oil sold to India
- The collapse of Gazprom's exports has left Russian pipe mills without orders. The collapse of Gazprom's
- And a bit about russia's "friends": Iran has started to squeeze russian oil out of china with discounts


And these two news are perfect :
- Siloviki suggested Putin to fire Shoigu, impose martial law and start general mobilization.
- In the State Duma called rumors of a new mobilization in September a throw-in

Total: so there will be mobilization

And the expected event - Moon 25, finished its journey as expected The reason for the accident - haste and show, an attempt to get ahead of ... India "The first space country" became "the last comic country".

 

I think you got me wrong. I did not say that the United States of America was excluded from participating in any of the major international sporting events, and I am almost certain that this will not happen soon, regardless of the degree of its crimes. At the same time, the penalty of exclusion included other countries whose rulers were accused of hostile practices. The most obvious example is Israel, which is prevented from participating in many international events, and there are countries that do not recognize Israel as a state in the first place.

Well, that's a lie! A portion (eventually becoming bigger) of all trade is being performed in Chinese yuan. Initially, the share of yuan was around 10% but it's getting bigger and bigger eventually.

Source: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/india-refiners-start-yuan-payments-russian-oil-imports-sources-2023-07-03/