Topic: Russia's economy is 'imploding' on export decline, economists claim - page 4. (Read 3090 times)

Right but Russia may be facing challenges and condemnation on the international stage, it is still a significant player in global affairs with a large population and a vast territory. Russia's natural resources, particularly its oil and gas reservas, also give it significant economic leverige in the global market.

As you mentioned, many countries are dependent on Russia for their energy needs, and this could make it difficult for them to completely sever ties with Russia. The high gas prices in Europe, for example, have made many European countries more reliant on Russian gas imports.
Over all while Russia may be facing challenges and criticism on the international stage, it is still a significant player in global affairs, and it is unlikely to implode completely. But, it will need to address its economic and political challenges in order to maintain its influence in the world

Do not try to explain the reality to the supporters of the "Russian world", they react painfully to this. They need at least some kind of "fairy tale" in which Ukraine will have at least something bad

And I'm sure you yourself are watching - all their arguments are simple, primitive lies. As for example, about the same lend-lease. I answered this lie, showed how the situation looks REALLY, and not in fantasy and habitually, for the "Russian world", lies. But the most interesting thing is that there will most likely not be an answer - this opponent has repeatedly exposed himself in a very unattractive light, and when facts are given to him, he simply "goes into the bushes"

Regarding today's assistance to Ukraine - indeed, more than 85% of the assistance is allocated on the basis of a non-paid assistance program, at the expense of the helper countries. Many countries of the so-called "ex-Warsaw Pact", which have a lot of equipment produced in the USSR, and which they also give away free of charge.
And even a significant part of the financial assistance is either for symbolic interest or also non-refundable financial assistance. But in the minds of the "Russian world" the West is always "a greedy capitalist who will sell his own mother for profit"

Biden signed a lend-lease on the supply of aid to Ukraine back in May last year, but it did not work, and it is possible that deliveries will not be made under it at all. Lend-Lease was a fallback option for Biden as a direct aid to Ukraine, if the US Congress had  refused to provide such assistance. But for now, Congress, on the contrary, encourages Biden to provide more assistance to Ukraine, in particular, with F-16 aircraft and Abrams tanks, and most of this assistance is free.

If Ukraine will compensate for the weapons and other assistance supplied to it, it will be largely due to reparations from Russia, and judging by the significant material and human damage inflicted on Ukraine, the Russians will have to pay for more than one generation.

 

I just can’t understand in any way - you either believe that you can lie so primitively, or really don’t control the situation at all, and fantasize about any topic ?! And I understand what's worse!

I will give you another lesson of REAL history, it’s not difficult for me.
Lend-Lease USA-USSR.
In 1941, realizing that from yesterday's "bosom friend", with whom the USSR began to destroy Europe, a real threat arose for the USSR, and the German offensive could not be stopped by throwing the corpses of soldiers of the Red Army of the USSR, the USSR began to ask for help from the United States. Well, who has already saved both tsarist Muscovy and the young USSR-USA many times! And this time the USSR asked for help. Lendlis began work in 1941. Do you know the terms or did you make them up? Just in case, let me remind you:
- everything that was delivered to the USSR (from BUTTONS and boots, to aviation kerosene and the aircraft themselves), and everything that was used, destroyed, destroyed ... NOT PAYABLE..
And in order to understand the scale of deliveries, a few facts about how much was delivered:

Aircraft 14 795
Dances 7 056
Passenger jeeps 51 503
Trucks 375 883
Motorcycles 35 170
Tractors 8 071
Rifles 8 218
Automatic weapons 131,633
Pistols 12 997
Explosives 345,735 tons
Dynamite 70,400,000 pounds
Gunpowder 127,000 tons
TNT 271,500,000 pounds
Tiluola 237,400,000 pounds
Detonators 903 000
Building equipment $10,910,000
Freight wagons 11,155
Locomotives 1 981
Cargo ships 90
Anti-submarine ships 105
Torpedo boats 197
Radar 445
Engines for ships 7 784
Food stocks 4,478,000 tons
Machinery and equipment $1,078,965,000
Non-ferrous metals 802,000 tons
Oil products 2,670,000 tons
Chemicals 842,000 tons
Cotton 106,893,000 tons
Leather 49,860 tons
Tire 3,786,000
Army boots 15,417,000 pairs
Blankets 1 541 590
Alcohol 331 066 l
Buttons 257 723 498 pcs.

Many of them were used for decades after the "victory". In the first, most difficult year of the war, British and American tanks covered more than a third of the needs of the USSR. A quarter of all guns and one in five wartime aircraft are also from abroad.

Many positions accounted for 50 to 90% of the total that the USSR used in the war against its "friend".

- Lend-lease property left after the end of the war and suitable for civilian purposes will be paid in whole or in part on the basis of long-term loans provided by the United States (mostly interest-free loans).

Lend-lease provisions also assumed that after the war, if the American side was interested, undestroyed and unlost equipment and equipment should be returned to the United States.

And now for the calculations.
The volume of lend-lease, in favor of the USSR
Volume in prices 1941-1945 billion $11.3
Volume in 2008 billion $ ~160

At the 1948 negotiations, the Soviet representatives agreed to pay only a small amount and were met with a predictable refusal from the American side. Negotiations in 1949 also came to nothing. In 1951, the Americans twice reduced the amount of the payment, which became equal to $800 million, but the Soviet side agreed to pay only $300 million (!!!!)

An agreement with the USSR on the procedure for repaying lend-lease debts was concluded only in 1972. According to this agreement, the USSR undertook to pay $722 million by 2001, including interest. By July 1973, three payments were made for a total of $48 million, after which the payments were stopped. In June 1990, during the talks between the presidents of the United States and the USSR, the parties returned to the discussion of debt. A new deadline for the final repayment of the debt was set - 2030, and the amount - $674 million.

Now let's look at the prices:
Lend-lease, volume in prices 2008 billion $ ~160
The actual total repayments are approximately $1 billion over 60 years. This is the "gratitude" of the USSR, which, in fact, Lend-Lease saved from loss and total defeat.

Ukraine is not a deceitful and vile USSR - we know the concept of honor, dignity and duty to those who helped us!

Do you yourself believe in it? The USSR paid off its lend-lease debts in 2006, 61 years after the end of World War II. I think it will take Ukraine 150 years to pay off its debts for the supply of weapons, this is according to optimistic forecasts.

To paraphrase you, we get this:
All doctors are killers! Even if a person did not die in a hospital, the doctors are to blame!
- all illnesses because of doctors! there were no doctors and medicine - there would be no diseases!
- science and medicine, this is all because of which everyone will die
- When you are treated for a deadly disease - you are killed!
- When you are not killed, they profit, and then they kill you and profit again!


Really bullshit?

For at least the following reasons:
- Most of the aid from the US is gratuitous
However, also without payment, some of the weapons are transferred to us by other countries, and these are not front sights on trunks
- The supply of weapons to Ukraine is not a cause, but a consequence of an attempt by a terrorist country, Russia, led by a war criminal, to destroy Ukraine
- Of course, there is a positive economic effect for countries producing weapons - communism has not been built, so production is not free But they are financed by the "donor" state, which provides assistance
- Moreover, since 2016, the Ukrainian military industry has also begun to develop - these are jobs, taxes, support for the army.

So if we talk about "benefit", then not in terms of profit, but in terms of normal economic relations, in such a difficult time for Ukraine.

War is business. None of the military equipment is given free of charge to other countries. Never mind the new ones, even the used ones are still being sold.
When the US helps Ukraine today in the military field, is it given for free? Of course not. There are consequences that will be borne by Ukraine.
How is it possible for the US to monopolize military equipment throughout Europe and destroy all military equipment purchased from Russia. And the US is also unable to replace all other countries' military equipment.
What we have to understand is that war is a business. Every time there is a war going on, that's when buying and selling of military equipment, such as fighter planes and others, runs smoothly.
In addition, war is a method to test the sophistication of military tools. Many countries have developed military equipment, such as fighter aircraft, but they have never carried out direct and serious trials.
Do not think of peace if the interests of a few people have not been realized. Don't stop the war, but stop the interests that result in the war. Maybe that way peace will come.

News from Russia is like a saying. I don't know if it will be possible to convey its meaning into English, but I will try
"Things in the country were going badly ... No, it's not that it's completely bad, you can even say it's good. But every day it's getting worse and worse" ))

A small selection of news from "great Russia":
- "Russia urgently asks Kazakhstan for help after Turkey's refusal to transit sanctioned goods."
A great country, as someone else wrote - the second economy of the world (yes, yes - someone wrote such nonsense), begging from Kazakhstan so that Kazakhstan would carry at least something high-tech to the country of the progressive Middle Ages SUCCESS, what can I say!
- Turkey does not have money for the construction of a gas hub, which was proposed by the President of the Republic of Armenia Vladimir Putin (an international criminal), and if Russia wants to implement the project, it will have to take over the financing, said member of the Security and Foreign Policy Council under the President of Turkey Chagry Erhan.
- The spiral of demographic disaster continues to unwind in Russia, despite the trillion-dollar budget spending on the national project "Demography" and the president's demands to stop the population decline.
The life expectancy of men in the Russian Federation for 2019-21 decreased by almost 5 years - to 64.2 years, writes The Economist, citing official statistics.
I hope everyone understands where the money went under this program!
- Before meeting with Putin, 15 top managers and billionaires fled from the largest business association in Russia
- Well, "cherry on the cake": the International Criminal Court in The Hague issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin. It is reported by BBC News. Also, a warrant was issued for the arrest of Maria Lvova-Belova, Commissioner for Children's Rights of the Russian Federation.

“Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, born on October 7, 1952, the President of the Russian Federation, is allegedly responsible for the war crime of illegal deportation of the population (children) and their transfer from the occupied territories of Ukraine to the territory of the Russian Federation,” the ICC said in a release.

So - from the "king of serfs" to the "criminal", according to such a "heroic" article ...

Since the day of Russia's large-scale invasion of Ukraine, there have been many polls about the Russian population's support for the war in Ukraine. As a rule, the percentage of such support invariably fluctuated between 70-75 percent. One can, of course, make allowances for the fact that the Russians are afraid to tell the truth in such polls, but we do not see any large-scale protests in Russia against the war and the massacres of the civilian population of Ukraine. In addition, in telephone conversations with the occupiers in Ukraine, their relatives either advise to rape Ukrainian women more, or order household items and even linen for themselves when committing robberies of civilian dwellings, or even bring the head of a Ukrainian from the war, or they advise killing everyone, even children, otherwise they will then grow up and take revenge on the Russians. The Russians have been zombified by Putin's long-term propaganda, but this still does not relieve them of responsibility for what they have done in Ukraine.

As for the US interest in the destruction of Russian military equipment in Ukraine during hostilities, then, of course, there should be such an interest. After all, the hands of the Ukrainians are now weakening one of their main potential opponents. And this is being successfully done by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in connection with which Russia is now experiencing an acute shortage of military equipment, especially tanks and armored vehicles, and ammunition and even small arms, since attacks by Russians with wooden sticks or shovels have already been recorded.

In addition, helping Ukraine to defend itself, European countries supply it with military equipment, mainly of Soviet production, which Ukrainians do not need to additionally master and which is immediately used at the front. Instead, the countries of Europe are adopting NATO weapons, which showed much better in this war than Russian ones.

We discussed about Putin, and the "common Russians' sentiment" about the war before. I have a new shower thought. What if the U.S. is trying to "wipe out" Russian military equipment in Central and Eastern Europe by not making the war end, then when it's finished, the U.S. will have a monopoly for military equipment in those countries across Europe, making them their everlasting vassals.

The great thing about economy is that is quite resistant to fake. You can "precision post" you way to any argument such as "if the name of someone is Kowalsky, the guy must be Polish and hate Russians". The problem is that the economy does not care about what you write, it is there destroying your future and the future of those you care for no matter what.

Again, amazing to observe how the RF can be at the same time killing by the thousands and playing the victim.

I am aware that your knowledge of history is think as spring ice, but you may want to read about Venezuela in the 90's and how it ended.

And you probably won't hear it. But it's too early to rejoice for the Russians, now I'll explain
To feel the essence of the problem - you need to visit Russia. And do the following:
1. Visit Moscow and St. Petersburg.
2. Take a car and drive through the regions - this is 100-200 km from Moscow and beyond.

In Moscow and St. Petersburg, famine is unlikely to come - all the money is concentrated there, which is essentially stolen from other regions. In Russia, all resources and income from them are concentrated in the hands of a small group of kleptomaniac terrorists who systematically rob the whole country.
But in the regions ... In the regions of Russia, people have NEVER lived normally. Poverty, vice, degradation, beggarly life, moral poverty - it's all about the Russian regions. And really only having been there, you will understand what I wanted to convey about you - THERE IS NO WHERE TO LIVE! People don't live, they exist! They receive small salaries and pensions, there is no normal medicine, no normal food, no clean water, ... The crisis cannot really affect them! For the simple reason that the crisis takes away what you have, and they have nothing all their lives! These are not horror stories, this is Russian reality, although 24 * 7 propaganda on TV tells how the whole world envy them )

There are two sides with two extreme/unrealistic views on the situation. One side says that the increased energy prices means West is going to freeze to death and the other side is saying that the shrunk Russian economy is going to starve them to death.

The thing is that this is a war, an economical war between East and West. They are hitting each other and the damage is seen on both sides. Interestingly enough nobody analyzes things like this. For example they say Russian imports have gone down by $X but they don't say that these imports were coming from the West and that means the Western exports have also gone down by $X. They also don't mention that Russia can find replacements for most of those imports but EU for example doesn't have the same option.
Take Siemens for example. The company can not find a replacement to sell their turbines to but Russia can find another manufacturer elsewhere.

"Export explosions"?  Dude, did you understand anything about the quote in the OP?  I don't think there's a language misinterpretation on your part; I think you're just shitposting.

This thread was from May, and I haven't been keeping up with what's going on between Russia and Ukraine, but by no means have I heard any horror stories about famine in Russia (and someone please correct me if I'm wrong, and I'll admit I haven't read all the posts in this thread), so I don't think their economy imploded.

I also agree with those who said the article was a political one more so than a typical academic economics piece.  Whether there was a Polish author or not, it's hard to keep personal worldviews out of an article like this one.  Not impossible, though.

War certainly makes a direct impact on the economic sector, and if there are reports that say export explosions occur then it is reasonable, but I'm sure market law will always work so that a country that is very dependent on Russia will continue to buy and not care about the embargo or economy sanction.

Thanks, very informative. I have read the original report and I can say that this study (and especially the conclusions from it) are highly politicized. Indeed, Russia has difficulties with the size of the positive balance of payments, but I would not dramatize this situation. After all, if your balance has become sharply positive, then someone's balance has become sharply negative. And if you have a large surplus of energy resources, then someone else has an equally large deficit. And this is a really serious problem.

However, I see three Polish names among the authors of the report, and Poland is traditionally at the forefront of European Russophobia.

Yes Russia is loosing steam. It certainly has became a pariah in international stage. However implosion is overstatement. In a lot many ways Russia is too big to ignore. Many countries are dependent on it and this economic condemnation can't sustain long. See along with Russia, Europe is also facing tough time, their gas prices are too high and they will need Russian gas in future, so they will probably resume trade with Russia in future.

The Chinese officials have a reputation as tough negotiators (similar to Turkey). They will never pay the same price that the Europeans pay to Russia. But at this point, I don't think that Russians care a lot about their profit margins. As long as they are able to sell their gas at decent prices to China, they will be happy. Japan and South Korea would have been more attractive options. But the close relationship these two countries have with NATO, I don't think that Russian gas will find any new markets there.

It's not such a big surprise that the sanctions have an effect. I know it was hard not to buy the Russian propaganda at the start that was telling us how sanctions won't have an effect on them, but they do, they can't escape that, especially the export part of it. They will try to find a home for their gas export, and China is a really good option, but I am not sure how much will China be able to take in and when the pipelines needed to transport will be finished.

At your request, I provide links to several articles with the abstracts of the Yale University report and to the report itself:
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4167193
https://topcor.ru/27313-britanskij-zhurnalist-mjetjuz-razvorot-rossii-k-kitaju-ne-imeet-smysla.html
https://ecodefense.ru/2022/08/05/sanctions-are-crippling-russian-economy/
https://forbes.ua/ru/inside/devyat-mifiv-pro-vidnovlennya-rosiyskoi-ekonomiki-popri-zayavi-kremlya-sanktsii-pratsyuyut-ale-ikh-potribno-bilshe-the-economist-26072022-7353