Topic: Russia's economy is 'imploding' on export decline, economists claim - page 3. (Read 3053 times)

 

Dear Sithara007 - you decided to follow the path of one not very smart colleague here on the forum, who here tried to tell everyone that Germany is on the verge of bankruptcy, because. "thousands of enterprises went bankrupt and closed" due to the fact that "great Russia" stopped supplying gas? And then, when it turned out that there was not a Russian audience here, and that it was customary to use brains and information here on the forum, it turned out .... It turned out that the indicators are absolutely familiar to Germany and there is no connection between these statistics and Russian economic terrorism.
And then this author was dipped head in shit, everyone at least a little bit knows how to work with information. Do not repeat his "success", this smell will accompany you for a very long time

Tell us better how the government of India buys cheap Russian oil, and then tells the population of the country tales about "expensive oil", and robs their pockets by selling them expensive gasoline? This is a really interesting observation! Or have you sharply fallen in price of gasoline?

Are you hinting that your point of view is not selective and is distinguished by a special objectivity in relation to Russia? Funny.

I refer to the data of the World Bank, because it is very difficult to suspect him of loyalty to Russia. And I refer to the data on GDP at purchasing power parity, because, unlike nominal GDP, it takes into account problems with national currencies and focuses on the fact that you can actually buy a ruble or euro weakened by inflation.

1. what a selective position you have If not favorable data - "who is the World Bank - a puppet of the west". When favorable - "well, look, the World Bank itself writes, yeah !"
- And most importantly - you should have parsed the topic a bit, and understand why this information does not reflect the reality of the picture. Let me explain. Everything, where GDP is the basis, concerning Russia has a small nuance.  We know exactly what Gross Domestic Product is. Yes, yes, I know that you are talking about the derivative of this indicator, but it is not fundamental, because the problem is in the "foundation" of measurements.
So, GDP is "a macroeconomic indicator reflecting the market value of all final goods and services (i.e., intended for direct consumption, use or application) produced during the year in all sectors of the economy in the territory of a particular state for consumption, export and accumulation, regardless of the nationality of the factors of production used."

Everything seems to be good and clear. But a nuance. Almost 50% of this indicator, today Russia counts with the military-industrial complex. That is, with the production of weapons for waging terrorist wars.  These are cartridges, shells, tanks, guns, small arms, gunpowder, etc. But the problem is that all this does not benefit the economy, it is just destroyed money, because all this is soon turned into burnt, rusty iron on the territory of Ukraine. These weapons are not sold and do not bring income. Therefore, the indicator from the point of view of "positive" is highly overstated. And it is easy to check - compare inflation, price growth index (only not government prices, you understand), income growth index, and you will realize - according to the report, it is beautiful, but if you get away from the monitor and look around - everything is slowly sinking into a bad-smelling swamp. By the way, inflation - count the fall of the ruble, the lack of proportional growth of real incomes. On the one hand, the mass of worthless phantoms has grown almost several times since the beginning of a new wave of terrorism against Ukraine. On the other hand, wages have not grown during this time. No, there is indexation in a dozen percent, but +10% when the mass of money has grown many times is a weak consolation. However, the positive thing is that now everyone can count "good" GDP - there is more money

German industrial output was sustained primarily by cheap Russian hydrocarbons. In order to please their American overlords, the Germans cut down the very branch in which they were sitting on. Now their manufacturing companies such as BASF and Volkswagen have been forced to cut output and their profits have been reduced. On the other hand, Russian economy is doing OK. There were predictions for economic meltdown by various western experts. One and half years have passed and Russian economy is doing just fine.

It is the most shameful thing the US and EU have done, showing their stalemate in the war against Russia. I remember in all sports, especially football, they always uphold and uphold the spirit of not discriminating against race, color and putting politics aside to get the most fairness. But then, the US and the EU did things that were contrary to the principles and rules they had set for themselves.

And that's also why I think the establishment of BRICS is the right thing to do because we need a balance of world economic and political power. Don't let them all be controlled, manipulated by a few entities and create inequality in the world.

At present, Russia's position is still a country that gets witnesses from the European Union and even the United States, but Russia's condition is far from the expectations of several great countries. Having gas sources in sufficient quantities makes Russia's position more stable and tends to be profitable because the system of exports and imports to Asian countries, which are mostly non-aligned, makes Russia's economic condition much better although it is still pending fines due to the war invasion to Ukraine. My country Indonesia, have good communicate with Russia and several time import Russia product as cheapest values than other county and more beneficial than import except Russia's product.

Invasion war to Ukraine still interested topic for discussing and reason why several European Union suspend with Russia from all sector, not only with economic side but also all kinds of Russia's sport have been banned.

In the meantime, here is the World Bank Group's 2022 report, July 1, 2023, GDP at purchasing power parity. What can I say, it is very shameful for the economy, twice torn to shreds, under the yoke of sanctions from all progressive mankind, to be in this list in fifth place, displacing Germany.

A bit of reality
- The Central Bank has recorded a precipitous drop in the inflow of foreign currency into Russia. In April-June, Russia received only $5.4 billion of balance of payments surplus - the difference between the main currency flows in and out of the country. Compared to the same period last year, the economy's notional foreign currency profit collapsed 14 times, or by 93%, and if we compare it to the first quarter of this year - almost threefold.
The result recorded by the Central Bank was the worst since 2020, when, amid the pandemic, oil prices fell to their lowest levels since the 1990s and Russian oil producers were forced to drastically cut production.
- Rosstat reported a sharp drop in drug output in Russia. Critically dependent on imports of substances - raw materials for the production of medicines - Russian pharmaceutical factories faced sharp price increases from counterparties. While 85% of substances in Russia are imported, prices for individual substances have jumped 1.5-2 times.
- Putin demanded that scientists urgently create technologies to replace Western ones 
- VTsIOM has recorded a drop in Putin's rating to its lowest since the war began
- The Kremlin has banned doubts about the stability of the Russian economy - that's how easy and reliable it is to stabilize the economy ! 
- VTB head tells Putin about stability of Russian banks after 757 billion-ruble loss
- Russia ranks first in Europe in the number of new HIV infections. We remember Russian slogans - "AIDS is punishment for homosexuality" ! Seems to be true 

PS And about greatness

April 16, 2013: Putin demanded to get people out of slums.
September 28, 2021: Putin demanded to get people out of slums.
November 30, 2022: We need to get people out of the slums
It feels like people are going there themselves, saving themselves from a rich life in a great country

Actually predicted this to drag out for long until one side relents and quits cause there's no way they'd both give up their stands. Russia's living in their delusional world where they think Ukraine's still part of them while of course the now sovereign state of Ukraine is fighting for their freedom. Economy can wait, they have allies that will help them fund and further their battle, plus at this point in time Russia's already forcing a huge portion of their male population to sign up to this needless war, so manpower wouldn't be a problem to them.

Just a few months ago I saw some news about Saudi buying Russian Gold, there's that too, plus a country which I forgot was also found to be financing the war on the side of Russia, there's a lot of things that are causing this war to drag out this long, it's not a matter of when they would stop, it's a matter of how.

Starting a military invasion of Ukraine, Putin expected to conquer all of Ukraine in a few days and install his puppet government there. To do this, at the same time as the invasion, the former President of Ukraine Yanukovych was brought to Belarus, who had previously fled to Russia and who was actually under the control of Putin. Therefore, Putin did not count on any Western sanctions. He hoped that Ukraine would fall even before any action was taken in Europe and the United States. But these plans were thwarted by the people of Ukraine and its armed forces. Only when they saw that the Ukrainians offered serious resistance and inflicted a major defeat on the Russian troops, after which they were forced to flee from the central and northern parts of Ukraine, so as not to be completely defeated, the NATO countries began to provide assistance to Ukraine, since they were interested in the military and economic weakening of Russia as a potential adversary, and without the loss of their soldiers, but by the hands of the Ukrainians.

Speaking of Russia's new economic union, do you mean the BRICS union? It is unlikely that he will significantly improve the current deplorable economic situation in Russia, which arose after Putin foolishly attacked Ukraine.

It's been over a year since the war began and it's quite shocking that the war has lingered this long. No one predicted the longevity of the war. But this is where we are and as it seems with all the unfolding drama the war has brought to the Russian economy and military, things might longer than we expect.

Looking at the effect the war has had on the Russian economy, I think it all struggled at the inception of the sanctions placed on them by the U.N, U.S, U.K and other powerful countries. However, things have flipped dramatically in favour of the Russian government to some extent as they have been able to form some sort of economic alliance with top energy producers globally including China and Saudi Arabia. These moves have to control favour the Russian government in the area of energy supplies and this stabilised the Russian economy.

More interesting developments may unfold. So, let's expect more twists...

Yes, Russia's exports of wheat and other grains are increasing this year, given that Russia is stealing it from Ukraine. Now from the ports of Ukraine, especially Berdyansk, Ukrainian grain is massively exported. Although, almost everything that can be taken out of the occupied territory of Ukraine is stolen. But rejoicing at the stolen is hardly worth it.

^^^ The picture of Russian economy imploding has been painted for one and half years now. But on the ground the situation seems to be quite normal in Russia. Apart from the fact that the Russian Ruble is getting devalued, the economy is still resilient. And also, Russian exports of wheat and coal are at record highs, despite the reduction in exports of oil and gas. For the year 2022-23, Russia exported 45.5 million tonnes of wheat, compared to 34.5 million tonnes in the year preceding that. They are expected to export 47.5 million tonnes in 2023-24, which is more than EU and Canada.

The Russian economy "explodes" not only because of the fall in exports. Next month, it will be a year and a half since Russia's full-scale military invasion of Ukraine continues in order to seize its territory. In the east of Ukraine, the Russian occupiers have not been able to significantly advance deep into the territory of Ukraine during this time. Now the fighting is going on in the area of the airport near Donetsk, where they were fought back in 2014.

In the south, parts of the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions are still occupied, but the large-scale battle for these regions is entering its final stage since the beginning of the offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in early June. The southern front of the Russians is already bursting at the seams. Although the Russians created a three-level defense there up to 27 kilometers deep, mined the entire area along the offensive path of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and had multiple superiority in manpower and equipment, especially in air defense, artillery and aviation, thanks to targeted pinpoint strikes by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the situation is now leveling off (except for the continued superiority of the Russians in aviation), and in terms of the number of tanks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine they even have a slight advantage.

So, in Ukraine at the time of the attack in February last year, there were 987 tanks, but thanks to the capture of Russian equipment and the help of allies in the amount of 471 tanks, now the Armed Forces of Ukraine have about 1,500 tanks. In Russia at the time of the attack there were about 3400 serviceable tanks, now their number has decreased to about 1400.

Thanks to well-established counter-battery combat, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are now actively knocking out enemy air defense and artillery. But in Russia there are still approximately 1900 artillery systems against 1100 in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Considering that over the past month, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have destroyed approximately 680 artillery systems, in a few weeks the Russian southern front in Ukraine may crumble due to a lack of artillery and air defense.
As for manpower, Russia has even transferred units from the eastern front to the southern front, bringing its last operational reserves into battle. And she has already run out of strategic ones. Therefore, panic among the Russian military is growing. But the townsfolk in Russia continue to be fed propaganda, although there a significant part of them are already beginning to see clearly.

Against the backdrop of the ongoing collapse of the ruble and the growth of the budget deficit, the upcoming military defeat will be a deadly shock for the Russians.

That is, you want to say that if any strong state attacks your country, you call for peace so that no one helps you repel aggression? Did I understand correctly? Or does this only apply to those cases when your country will not participate in the war?

If the world community only watches indifferently as the big states attack and capture the weak, destroy their inhabitants and destroy their infrastructure to the ground, then they themselves will someday become a victim of such aggression. The strength of society is unity. Otherwise, it will be very convenient for the aggressor to absorb neighboring states in turn.

Russia needs Ukraine only as a launching pad for attacking other countries. Initially, Putin planned to attack the Baltic countries - Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. But then he changed his mind and decided to start with Ukraine.
Therefore, your opinion is not only wrong, but also extremely dangerous for collective security.

I'm sorry, but you are taking ERRONOUS assumptions or narratives as a basis, and drawing the wrong conclusions accordingly.
Let me help you a little, shall we?
1. Russia is not a "significant player" - in nothing! Yes Yes. Russia is just a substitute territory and .. that's all, nothing more GDP has already become less than 1% in the world ranking Is this a SIGNIFICANT indicator?
2. No one depends on Russia in terms of hydrocarbon supplies. Rather, Russia depends on whether there will be at least someone, at least some money (for example, rupees and yuan ) to buy oil and gas that the EU has stopped buying! By the way, recently - yes, the EU was the largest, dependent buyer of gas and oil. But those days are over
3. In a military sense, Russia turned out to be a complete fake, and the arms market is also lost.
4. International status... A complete fiasco - from a country "second to the poles of the bipolar world," Russia has turned into a raw materials appendage and an obedient guinea pig of China. By the way, for understanding that from the economic side, Russia is an empty place, some statistics that are very easy to check:

- Of the total imports in Russia - approximately 34%, these are imports from China.
Of the total exports of China - exports to Russia - about 2% of total exports

Well, what significance would you like to talk about?

Do you think it is time to reassess the claim made in the article that OP shared almost a year ago?
In it the "The Institute of International Finance" claims that Russian economy is "imploding" and is going to "collapse" and the GDP shrink by -30% by end of 2022.

Now I don't know which source is the most reliable but they are reporting numbers that are close. For example IMF reports a slight growth in Russia's GDP in 2022, some other sources talk about a tiny decrease (between 1 to 2%).

I think we can all agree that both businessinsider and IIF were full of it and were spreading propaganda. Of course we bitcoiners already knew that considering how many FUD businessinsider has spread about bitcoin.

Right but Russia may be facing challenges and condemnation on the international stage, it is still a significant player in global affairs with a large population and a vast territory. Russia's natural resources, particularly its oil and gas reservas, also give it significant economic leverige in the global market.

As you mentioned, many countries are dependent on Russia for their energy needs, and this could make it difficult for them to completely sever ties with Russia. The high gas prices in Europe, for example, have made many European countries more reliant on Russian gas imports.
Over all while Russia may be facing challenges and criticism on the international stage, it is still a significant player in global affairs, and it is unlikely to implode completely. But, it will need to address its economic and political challenges in order to maintain its influence in the world

Do not try to explain the reality to the supporters of the "Russian world", they react painfully to this. They need at least some kind of "fairy tale" in which Ukraine will have at least something bad

And I'm sure you yourself are watching - all their arguments are simple, primitive lies. As for example, about the same lend-lease. I answered this lie, showed how the situation looks REALLY, and not in fantasy and habitually, for the "Russian world", lies. But the most interesting thing is that there will most likely not be an answer - this opponent has repeatedly exposed himself in a very unattractive light, and when facts are given to him, he simply "goes into the bushes"

Regarding today's assistance to Ukraine - indeed, more than 85% of the assistance is allocated on the basis of a non-paid assistance program, at the expense of the helper countries. Many countries of the so-called "ex-Warsaw Pact", which have a lot of equipment produced in the USSR, and which they also give away free of charge.
And even a significant part of the financial assistance is either for symbolic interest or also non-refundable financial assistance. But in the minds of the "Russian world" the West is always "a greedy capitalist who will sell his own mother for profit"

Biden signed a lend-lease on the supply of aid to Ukraine back in May last year, but it did not work, and it is possible that deliveries will not be made under it at all. Lend-Lease was a fallback option for Biden as a direct aid to Ukraine, if the US Congress had  refused to provide such assistance. But for now, Congress, on the contrary, encourages Biden to provide more assistance to Ukraine, in particular, with F-16 aircraft and Abrams tanks, and most of this assistance is free.

If Ukraine will compensate for the weapons and other assistance supplied to it, it will be largely due to reparations from Russia, and judging by the significant material and human damage inflicted on Ukraine, the Russians will have to pay for more than one generation.