Topic: Ryans' log - page 27. (Read 50747 times)

Today's installment:
Now that you have the bigger picture (shown above) of what may lie ahead, today I will present a couple of charts of the recent price action we've seen. With glaring divergences on the hourly charts, a minor top is decidedly in.The weak 5th wave was yet another indication of a topping situation.



Note these divergences and where they appear relative to the waves


Higher highs in price, coupled with lower highs in the indicator (in this case, the Elliott Wave Oscillator, or EWO) is exactly the type of divergences you want to look for. The bar period used is dictated by the degree of wave you are trying to identify. For a low degree wave such as this, you use 1 hour bars. When looking for a major top like the $1163 top on Stamp, you would want to use something longer such as a Daily bar. This rule applies to any indicator that finds divergence in price to strength comparisons.

Another is the MACD (2nd region) or RSI (3rd region).


I will add more to this in a few!

The two arguments against the inverse H&S is 1) that it's not very symmetrical. It *should* be, but it's not required. And 2) the neckline should slope up, not down. These are of course the ideal scenarios and more of a guide line rather than a rule. The slope however, makes for a more reliable outcome and more reliable target.

Inverse head and shoulders!  Gotta say, I love all your guys's techno-analysis speak.  It really kind of does resemble a set of shoulders with a head when I flip my monitor upside down

So, from what I'm reading on investopeida makes me bullish for bitcoin!

Can't wait to see where bitcoin goes by the end of the year.

It's on the left side, right?
http://thepatternsite.com/hsb.html

First: thanks great post! Second: so your left shoulder actually is the right shoulder, right?  

Awesome. Thanks.

Why is the first chart bearish? I assume it crashes after 920ish?  

Nevermind. I figured it out.

Since this sub-forum is lacking substance these last few weeks in the new threads dept., I decided to start this thread as a log of Elliott wave counts, as they progress, and reject as they are invalidated. I will only post charts of counts, including possible outcomes and targets should the count mentioned come to fruition. Targets will be found using only Fibonacci relationships to price action.

Note:This is NOT a prediction thread. I do not give advice on trading.


In most cases, for fairness sake, I will post at least one Bullish count and one Bearish count using the same period of time. These counts will be equally plausible, and equally valid, but not necessarily equally likely.  I will try to post updates Daily at a minimum, and more frequently during active times. Sometimes, I will put multiple counts on the same chart. In these instances, I will color code the counts so that it's easy to identify what is what. I will at times, use an indicator or two on my charts (to be announced later) which I will go into detail on how they can be used to help determine where we are in a count.

This thread can be used as a sort of learning tool for those who would like to learn Elliott Wave Theory. Ask me questions or post your own counts if you'd like, but please keep off-topic chat out as I will remove useless material as I see fit.

Elliott Wave Theory (I will use "EW" from here on out) should not be used as a trading system by itself for reasons I will explain throughout this thread. Always, and I mean ALWAYS use other indicators/methods together with EW to get a solid read of the market. FYI, I have about 100 charts for Bitcoin. Everything from 5 minute to weekly. Then I have Bearish and Bullish counts. I have probably 40 charts with different various indicators, some custom and some with default settings. So don't be afraid to have charts

Some basic psychology behind the waves can be found here https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.8767634 EW is based on this psychology and the effects it has on you, the trader. Bitcoin is no different than any other financial market in the world in that the gain and loss of wealth whether it be Fiat or BTC affects the emotions of traders new and seasoned alike. EW is a glimps into the collective market psychology.

Divergences talked about in this thread such as Bullish divergence and Bearish divergence, and how to effectively use them can be found here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.8960947

To start off, I will stir the pot a little with this Bearish one


Or this one

This one remains valid until 683.26 is PASSED.

...and for those that don't know what smoothie is talking about with that inverse Head and Shoulders (H&S)  


This is the legend for the degree labelings I use. They are top to bottom, larger to smaller. However, I tend to only use 3-4 degrees in any given chart and those are usually Upper case Roman numerals, digits, and lower case Roman numerals. Sometimes I have a need to use more and I will add parenthesis.
Upper case is greater than digits. Digits are greater than lower case. Brackets are greater than parenthesis. Parenthesis are grater than non-enclosed labels. The character takes precedence over enclosure type.