Pages:
Author

Topic: SlipperySlope's Bubble Collapse Journal - page 2. (Read 24795 times)

legendary
Activity: 1022
Merit: 1000
Quote
Candle stick bodies are arbitrary, the can start and end at any point of the wick depending on the time you choose at the cutoff. They only have meaning in relation to other candles in the form of patterns and should not be used to derive support resistance from.
What works instead is using the weighted price or to a lesser extent the median price.

By cutting off the wicks you effectively get something like a median price because you filter out a big part of noise (the wicks) and get a trendline closer to the median (center of candle body).


Quote
The candlestick pattern will change depending on when exactly for example the day ends (depending on timezone). Therefore the timezone is not irrelevant. I might be misinterpreting something, but I don't think so. min/max/open/close/avg... all that will change if you move the candle boundaries.

What you say is true for one or two candles that you can change around at will. But what you need to draw a trend line is a larger number of candles. For 10 or 20 candles the effect of changing cut off times (changing time zone) evens out.

can't believe I just did this...

what do these 2 have in common?



exactly, the same underlying data:



(just with "timezone" offset by 50% of a candle width)

EDIT: and this was just randomly drawn without even trying to maximize difference.

you don't "filter out noise", you just get "different noise"


Nice example Wink If you do the same thing with more candles you will see that the trend becomes more precise by the number of candles you add.
As mentioned above, you can change around a few candles at will but cant do the same thing with many candles more. Then you WILL actually filter out some noise by cutting off the wicks and shadows that would distort your trendline other wise. An extreme example to illustrate what I mean:



Where would you draw the trendline Wink?


Another view using the same sample (I could have choosen a better one but Im too lazy right now):



Which of the 3 trendlines provides the earliest trend reversal indication?
(remember: the internal trendline is considered broken when 1 or 2 candles close above it, depending on how much reassurance you prefer)
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
do you really think if early stock market operators had had a computer storing a list of every goddamn trade that happened 24/7 they would've invented CANDLES?


lol
donator
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1019
do you really think if early stock market operators had had a computer storing a list of every goddamn trade that happened 24/7 they would've invented CANDLES?
donator
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1019
Quote
Candle stick bodies are arbitrary, the can start and end at any point of the wick depending on the time you choose at the cutoff. They only have meaning in relation to other candles in the form of patterns and should not be used to derive support resistance from.
What works instead is using the weighted price or to a lesser extent the median price.

By cutting off the wicks you effectively get something like a median price because you filter out a big part of noise (the wicks) and get a trendline closer to the median (center of candle body).


Quote
The candlestick pattern will change depending on when exactly for example the day ends (depending on timezone). Therefore the timezone is not irrelevant. I might be misinterpreting something, but I don't think so. min/max/open/close/avg... all that will change if you move the candle boundaries.

What you say is true for one or two candles that you can change around at will. But what you need to draw a trend line is a larger number of candles. For 10 or 20 candles the effect of changing cut off times (changing time zone) evens out.

can't believe I just did this...

what do these 2 have in common?



exactly, the same underlying data:



(just with "timezone" offset by 50% of a candle width)

EDIT: and this was just randomly drawn without even trying to maximize difference.

you don't "filter out noise", you just get "different noise"
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
a more RELIABLE indicator that is not influenced by intraday fluctuation

Except "day" is arbitrary here, so intraday has no real meaning.  Other markets shut down for the night/weekened, that's why it makes sense to use their open and close.

But regardless, I don't pay all that much attention to trendlines anyway.  VWAP, ADX, and a few oscillators at various timescales are what I look at primarily.
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
Quote
Candle stick bodies are arbitrary, the can start and end at any point of the wick depending on the time you choose at the cutoff. They only have meaning in relation to other candles in the form of patterns and should not be used to derive support resistance from.
What works instead is using the weighted price or to a lesser extent the median price.

By cutting off the wicks you effectively get something like a median price because you filter out a big part of noise (the wicks) and get a trendline closer to the median (center of candle body).

That depends on how many candles you are talking about. If it is many yes they will tend towards the median price, but if they are just a few it could be anything.
It's better to just use the median price right away.
legendary
Activity: 1022
Merit: 1000
Quote
Candle stick bodies are arbitrary, the can start and end at any point of the wick depending on the time you choose at the cutoff. They only have meaning in relation to other candles in the form of patterns and should not be used to derive support resistance from.
What works instead is using the weighted price or to a lesser extent the median price.

By cutting off the wicks you effectively get something like a median price because you filter out a big part of noise (the wicks) and get a trendline closer to the median (center of candle body).


Quote
The candlestick pattern will change depending on when exactly for example the day ends (depending on timezone). Therefore the timezone is not irrelevant. I might be misinterpreting something, but I don't think so. min/max/open/close/avg... all that will change if you move the candle boundaries.

What you say is true for one or two candles that you can change around at will. But what you need to draw a trend line is a larger number of candles. For 10 or 20 candles the effect of changing cut off times (changing time zone) evens out.
donator
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1019
Maybe I dont understand you correctly, but gaps dont exist in a 24/7 market so they dont matter. The time zone is also irrelevant, you can pick any time zone you like!

Again, the red trend line is not misleading. It is a valid way to draw trend lines. In this case not the extremes are connected but the bodies of the candles, which gets rid of variance and produces a more RELIABLE indicator that is not influenced by intraday fluctuation. It would be considered broken if a candle closes above it and produces trading signals just as well as the other method but instead more "solid" ones.

Watch the last example on this page:
http://www.candlestickwarrior.com/candlestick-chart-patterns/5-technical-analysis-trend-lines-keep-it-simple.php

The candlestick pattern will change depending on when exactly for example the day ends (depending on timezone). Therefore the timezone is not irrelevant. I might be misinterpreting something, but I don't think so. min/max/open/close/avg... all that will change if you move the candle boundaries.
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
Candle stick bodies are arbitrary, the can start and end at any point of the wick depending on the time you choose at the cutoff. They only have meaning in relation to other candles in the form of patterns and should not be used to derive support resistance from.
What works instead is using the weighted price or to a lesser extent the median price.
legendary
Activity: 1022
Merit: 1000
Maybe I dont understand you correctly, but gaps dont exist in a 24/7 market so they dont matter. The time zone is also irrelevant, you can pick any time zone you like!

Again, the red trend line is not misleading. It is a valid way to draw trend lines. In this case not the extremes are connected but the bodies of the candles, which gets rid of variance and produces a more RELIABLE indicator that is not influenced by intraday fluctuation. It would be considered broken if a candle closes above it and produces trading signals just as well as the other method but instead more "solid" ones.

Watch the last example on this page:
http://www.candlestickwarrior.com/candlestick-chart-patterns/5-technical-analysis-trend-lines-keep-it-simple.php
donator
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1019
The same can be said about any other market because you can define custom intervals everywhere. The only thin Bitcoin doesnt have is gaps between trading hours. I think this actually makes for a better representation of the market "will". Open and close prices are by definition (maybe yours if different?) the price at which a candle opens or closes (hence starts or ends).

My point is that other markets have naturally defined gaps for their days and weeks, so it makes more sense to look at the open and close for those markets.

notme has a point. In traditional markets time passes and stuff happens between open and close. Using this on a 24/7 market is arbitrary (which timezone to use)?

That red line is intentionally drawn in a misleading way. Even a noob like me can see that.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
The same can be said about any other market because you can define custom intervals everywhere. The only thin Bitcoin doesnt have is gaps between trading hours. I think this actually makes for a better representation of the market "will". Open and close prices are by definition (maybe yours if different?) the price at which a candle opens or closes (hence starts or ends).

My point is that other markets have naturally defined gaps for their days and weeks, so it makes more sense to look at the open and close for those markets.
legendary
Activity: 1022
Merit: 1000
The same can be said about any other market because you can define custom intervals everywhere. The only thin Bitcoin doesnt have is gaps between trading hours. I think this actually makes for a better representation of the market "will". Open and close prices are by definition (maybe yours if different?) the price at which a candle opens or closes (hence starts or ends).
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
Quote
I saw this in your other thread too: But why is your red line doing that? What are you 'connecting' with it? Looks cooked.

You can draw supports/resistances in different ways. One way is to only connect tops or bottoms of candles which gives you an outer bound of where you can expect the price to go or you draw an "internal trend line" by which you connect only closing/opening prices of candles. The second method gets rid of the variance that some outliers produce with big orders by shooting up or down only to return to the mean within the same candle.
The trend line would be considered broken if 2 or 3 full candles close outside of it.

Agreed on eliminating outliers, but the issue is the 24/7 nature of bitcoin.  There is no open and no close, and one can easily shift the candle definition to show different bodies.
legendary
Activity: 1022
Merit: 1000
Quote
I saw this in your other thread too: But why is your red line doing that? What are you 'connecting' with it? Looks cooked.

You can draw supports/resistances in different ways. One way is to only connect tops or bottoms of candles which gives you an outer bound of where you can expect the price to go or you draw an "internal trend line" by which you connect only closing/opening prices of candles. The second method gets rid of the variance that some outliers produce with big orders by shooting up or down only to return to the mean within the same candle.
The trend line would be considered broken if 2 or 3 full candles close outside of it.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
Looks cooked.

It is cooked.

The trendline was broken.

Don't worry, his will break too.
sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 250
Looks cooked.

It is cooked.

The trendline was broken.
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
RMBTB.com: The secure BTC:CNY exchange. 0% fee!
Hi,
RationalSpeculator above me just pointed me to this great thread! Most of your observations align with my own.
Here is a cross post from another thread that i think fits in here just as well, what do you think?





I saw this in your other thread too: But why is your red line doing that? What are you 'connecting' with it? Looks cooked.
legendary
Activity: 1022
Merit: 1000
Hi,
RationalSpeculator above me just pointed me to this great thread! Most of your observations align with my own.
Here is a cross post from another thread that i think fits in here just as well, what do you think?




This could of course break out to the upside as well, triggering another rally if the price can hold above the resistance for 2 or 3 days but I think chances are higher that we go down once more to test the bottom, looking at the low volume in outbreak attempts, the percived timidity of the crowd, while some big buyers almost trade by themselves, RSI being overbought on so many scales and a much too fast recovery from recent lows to be sustainable (if you ask me). Add to that the similarity with the last chart and you got a case. What do you all think? Be warned, that we will see in a couple of days so choose your predictions wisely Wink




sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
He certainly did! I admire his rational unemotional approach very much.

Thank you SlipperySlope for sharing! Smiley
Pages:
Jump to: