🏁🏎️ Sportsbet.io🏁 FORMULA 1 2023 Season🏁🏎️Prediction Pool Discussion Thread - page 69.

ILuckyGuyI

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The last results in Formula 1 have started to be for the benefit of Ferrari more. Because of that I'm thinking about giving more chances to Ferrari drivers for the remaining races in the calendar. But it will still be difficult to predict the right podium of course. Because for example the most recent podium was pretty interesting. Grin

Red Bull drivers' not being on podium caused this to happen though. But still the recent races tell me that we might continue to see more attention getting races as of now.

For Japan GP, I think that Verstappen will make compensation for the Singapore GP strongly.

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Quote from: CLS63 on September 19, 2023, 04:40:12 PM

I'm wondering whether there will be people among the ones fighting for the championship who will make a choice other than Verstappen for the winner of the race or pole for the Japan GP this week. Especially for pole position I'm expecting to see Sainz Jr's name quite many times.

Most likely, it depends on free practice results, which teams are strong and if there's a chance to see Red Bull struggling.
I can only see participants select someone different from Verstappen, in case Red Bull really struggles in free practice and we know already which team is clearly in front of Red Bull. Because if we don't know, we have so many drivers outside of Red Bull who could get on pole, like Sainz, Leclerc, Norris, Hamilton, Russell. It's very risky.
And drivers from Ferrari or Mercedes are almost equally strong. If Ferrari is dominating, we have Sainz OR Leclerc on pole, while for Red Bull, it is Verstappen for 90% of all races, when Red Bull takes pole.

Personally, I've chosen Sainz for pole in Singapore because he and Ferrari seemed to be very strong in Singapore and Red Bull struggled but if Red Bull will be up as usual and as expected in Japan, I'll select Verstappen for pole in Japan. After all, we don't have odds on Superbru.
But of course, it mainly depends on free practice.

CLS63

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I'm wondering whether there will be people among the ones fighting for the championship who will make a choice other than Verstappen for the winner of the race or pole for the Japan GP this week. Especially for pole position I'm expecting to see Sainz Jr's name quite many times. The race in which Red Bull were bad this season has become the best race of the season. I hope that we can see this kind of races more often.

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Quote from: buwaytress on September 18, 2023, 01:33:30 PM

Like swogerino said, none of us changed even with the starting grid.

Yes, changing picks would have backfired big time because Russell (started 2nd) and Leclerc (started 3rd) couldn't achieve a podium.
Russell binned it while trying to overtake Norris in lap 61 of 62 (what a bummer) and Leclerc had bad luck during his pitstop, where he dropped from place 2 to 6.
Shows one more time how 2 EBP are really a lot, especially for a chaotic race, where overally a low score is met.

Ulven

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Quote from: CLS63 on September 18, 2023, 04:15:36 PM

Congrats on the yellow cap @Ulven!

It was hell of a race especially in final laps. I really admired Sainz's thinking of letting Norris use his DRS to keep Russell behind. Even Ferrari pit wall didn't understand his strategy and they radioed him to inform that the gap with Norris was closing. It was such an unlucky race for Red Bull. If we saw SC at least 10 laps later it would be a chance for Red Bulls to pit as well. Verstappen still did his best but his winning streak is gone now.

At the same time his chance to be on podium in every race in a season is also gone which was Michael Schumacher's record in 2002.

Thank you!!
It seems like it was a fierce and well-planned war. In fact, the timing of the safety car and Sainz's choice to assist Norris can have a big impact on a Formula 1 race. Every season, the termination of Verstappen's victory streak is a noteworthy event. It's intriguing to observe how accomplishments like Schumacher's 2002 records remain a yardstick for sporting greatness.

CLS63

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Congrats on the yellow cap @Ulven!

It was hell of a race especially in final laps. I really admired Sainz's thinking of letting Norris use his DRS to keep Russell behind. Even Ferrari pit wall didn't understand his strategy and they radioed him to inform that the gap with Norris was closing. It was such an unlucky race for Red Bull. If we saw SC at least 10 laps later it would be a chance for Red Bulls to pit as well. Verstappen still did his best but his winning streak is gone now.

At the same time his chance to be on podium in every race in a season is also gone which was Michael Schumacher's record in 2002.

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Ferrari was quite strong a few years ago in Japan.

It will be an interesting weekend to see if RBR will be nerfed after the last change of rules or not.

Ulven

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^^
Despite receiving the yellow jersey, I couldn't climb the rankings and remained stagnant. 0.5 points may not mean much, but the race results were unexpected for everyone, with most players earning ten points or less. I don't believe I'll move up in the standings, but it would be great if I could achieve a third yellow jersey this season.

ILuckyGuyI

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Quote from: swogerino on September 17, 2023, 01:41:33 PM

The funny thing is that in the pool almost all the top guys did not move positions,showing that most of us believed to much in Verstappen and Redbull.I got this race the lowest ever amount of points including EBP I only got 7 points Grin

.

Mercedes I think made an error to not let Hamilton pass Russell when Hamilton was near 1 second faster than his team mate,the end of the race would have been a much much different story then but Mercedes believed more in Russell this time,he tried and over did it by hitting the wall desperately trying to catch Norris and Sainz.

I didn't know who picked what until the end of the race honestly. After seeing the results of the race I was really wondering how many people thought the same as me about the picks. Thankfully there were so many similar picks. Grin

But it was a really different race so it was really difficult to predict a podium and top 10 like this.

Hamilton was even faster than Russell actually but I guess they didn't want to ask this from Russell while he was making a big effort to overtake Norris. If Sainz didn't let Norris get his DRS then this would have happened most probably.

casperBGD

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Quote from: buwaytress on September 18, 2023, 01:33:30 PM

~snip
Wasn't it a few races ago Mx started in 10th anyway and still won? I was thinking of that...
~snip

that was my thinking too, didn't he want all races, and by that I mean he didn't had all pole position, but eventually nobody could race him till the end
nevertheless, congrats to anyone picking Sainz for podium (not sure that anyone pick him to win)

didn't get any positions on podium right, but 9 points overall, not unhappy TBH, and still on position 15
hopefully, will get some race good, at least a yellow cap from this season

buwaytress

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Hot damn, I honestly thought I would slip badly on this race with all the upsets but I managed to keep my position, what? Like swogerino said, none of us changed even with the starting grid. Wasn't it a few races ago Mx started in 10th anyway and still won? I was thinking of that...

Nice early prediction event for Japan, jeremypwr!

Quote from: ILuckyGuyI on September 15, 2023, 10:57:33 AM

The reason why I would have picked Sainz for podium in Monza GP was that his performance in Free Practice sessions was better than Leclerc.

And so right you were!

jeremypwr

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As I said 10 days ago FIA can change the regulation whenever they want, like they did in 2019 nerfing the Mercedes.

Next week we will have a hyper-aerodynamic track at Suzuka in Japan.

We will see if the new rule is a damage for the RBR or if they just had a bad week.

swogerino

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Quote from: Saint-loup on September 17, 2023, 02:47:20 PM

Quote from: swogerino on September 17, 2023, 01:41:33 PM

The funny thing is that in the pool almost all the top guys did not move positions,showing that most of us believed to much in Verstappen and Redbull.I got this race the lowest ever amount of points including EBP I only got 7 points Grin

.

Mercedes I think made an error to not let Hamilton pass Russell when Hamilton was near 1 second faster than his team mate,the end of the race would have been a much much different story then but Mercedes believed more in Russell this time,he tried and over did it by hitting the wall desperately trying to catch Norris and Sainz.

I didn't sacrifice my EBP points and change my prediction because last time I did it, I finally lose some points, and being late few times cost me several positions in the leaderboard because of those missing EBP points (along with the pole position one) despite knowing the starting grid positions. Red Bull Racing team encountered numerous technical issues for preparing the cars of Verstappen and Sergio Perez for this Grand Prix, but they should be ok next week for Japan Grand Prix race at Suzuka.

They are already saying so but FIA has lately made a change to the regulations that maybe they were thinking Redbull was using that as a grey area and this was the first race after such regulations.I am not saying that most probably FIA hit it right away and even if they don't do well at Suzuka I would not be surprised that much,they are already Champions for this season so I expect them to take things calmly and maybe they are already thinking about next year car because in the remaining races the competition cannot hit them hard,there is simple not enough time and races to overthrow them from the reigning positions.

Saint-loup

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Quote from: swogerino on September 17, 2023, 01:41:33 PM

The funny thing is that in the pool almost all the top guys did not move positions,showing that most of us believed to much in Verstappen and Redbull.I got this race the lowest ever amount of points including EBP I only got 7 points Grin

.

Mercedes I think made an error to not let Hamilton pass Russell when Hamilton was near 1 second faster than his team mate,the end of the race would have been a much much different story then but Mercedes believed more in Russell this time,he tried and over did it by hitting the wall desperately trying to catch Norris and Sainz.

I didn't sacrifice my EBP points and change my prediction because last time I did it, I finally lose some points, and being late few times cost me several positions in the leaderboard because of those missing EBP points (along with the pole position one) despite knowing the starting grid positions. Red Bull Racing team encountered numerous technical issues for preparing the cars of Verstappen and Sergio Perez for this Grand Prix, but they should be ok next week for Japan Grand Prix race at Suzuka.

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Quote from: ILuckyGuyI on September 17, 2023, 01:31:18 PM

Quote from: swogerino on September 17, 2023, 10:11:14 AM

Different race today in F1 where Ferrari won a deserved race but greatly helped by the Safety Car perfectly timed when they were about to enter pit stops anyway,this translated to very bad luck for Redbulls who were planning on staying ahead while the Ferraris should have been in traffic when they came out of the pit stops if there were no Safety Car.Well played in the end by Sainz who gave DRS to Norris that helped himself defend against hungry Mercedes with medium tires which unfortunately Russell hit the wall by pushing way to hard to fight for that win.In the pool I am sure this is a race with a very few points compared to the last one.

Sainz was really big brain today. Grin

Carlando did a great teamwork about keeping Mercedes drivers behind themselves. Sainz completely deserved this win as a result. Ferrari needed to make a sacrifice and they chose Leclerc for that I'm afraid. I wish Leclerc managed to finish the race on podium at least.

Mercedes rolled the dice and got medium tyres for a full push to win the race. Especially Russell was so fast but he couldn't do it and he even made a shocking mistake in the final lap. If he chilled a little more maybe he wouldn't have hit the wall and been DNF.

Good weekend for Ferrari anyway!

The funny thing is that in the pool almost all the top guys did not move positions,showing that most of us believed to much in Verstappen and Redbull.I got this race the lowest ever amount of points including EBP I only got 7 points Grin

.

Mercedes I think made an error to not let Hamilton pass Russell when Hamilton was near 1 second faster than his team mate,the end of the race would have been a much much different story then but Mercedes believed more in Russell this time,he tried and over did it by hitting the wall desperately trying to catch Norris and Sainz.

ILuckyGuyI

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Quote from: swogerino on September 17, 2023, 10:11:14 AM

Different race today in F1 where Ferrari won a deserved race but greatly helped by the Safety Car perfectly timed when they were about to enter pit stops anyway,this translated to very bad luck for Redbulls who were planning on staying ahead while the Ferraris should have been in traffic when they came out of the pit stops if there were no Safety Car.Well played in the end by Sainz who gave DRS to Norris that helped himself defend against hungry Mercedes with medium tires which unfortunately Russell hit the wall by pushing way to hard to fight for that win.In the pool I am sure this is a race with a very few points compared to the last one.

Sainz was really big brain today. Grin

Carlando did a great teamwork about keeping Mercedes drivers behind themselves. Sainz completely deserved this win as a result. Ferrari needed to make a sacrifice and they chose Leclerc for that I'm afraid. I wish Leclerc managed to finish the race on podium at least.

Mercedes rolled the dice and got medium tyres for a full push to win the race. Especially Russell was so fast but he couldn't do it and he even made a shocking mistake in the final lap. If he chilled a little more maybe he wouldn't have hit the wall and been DNF.

Good weekend for Ferrari anyway!

swogerino

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Different race today in F1 where Ferrari won a deserved race but greatly helped by the Safety Car perfectly timed when they were about to enter pit stops anyway,this translated to very bad luck for Redbulls who were planning on staying ahead while the Ferraris should have been in traffic when they came out of the pit stops if there were no Safety Car.Well played in the end by Sainz who gave DRS to Norris that helped himself defend against hungry Mercedes with medium tires which unfortunately Russell hit the wall by pushing way to hard to fight for that win.In the pool I am sure this is a race with a very few points compared to the last one.

1miau

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Quote from: CLS63 on September 16, 2023, 03:40:24 PM

I have also been thinking about this since the qualifying session ended. I assume that I won't give up on EBP points as it really very difficult to predict the result of this race. It isn't difficult to predict that a person who can predict podium correctly tomorrow will rise in the standings significantly. When it comes to Verstappen's statements after the qualifying session he isn't very hopeful for tomorrow.

Same here, I've also considered to change my picks but making up 2 EBP is very difficult.

Let's assume we change it to:
1. Sainz
2. Russell
3. Leclerc

And final order is not changed (very unlikely):

Rating	Points Superbru
____________	__________________
1. Sainz	2
2. Russell	2
3. Leclerc	2
Podium bonus	2

Result: 8 points just from podium and losing all of our EBP = 8 points

But final order is maybe:

Rating	Points Superbru
____________	__________________
1. Sainz	2
2. Leclerc	1
3. Norris	1
Podium bonus	0

Result: 4 points just from podium but losing all of our EBP = 4 points (if Sainz and Leclerc are switched, it's only 3 points).

Now, when we don't make changes of our picks and race results are 1. Sainz, 2. Leclerc, 3. Russell, while our unchanged prediction is:

Rating	Points Superbru
____________	__________________
1. Verstappen	1 (for Top 10 position)
2. Perez	1 (for Top 10 position)
3. Norris	1 (for Top 10 position)
Podium bonus	0

Result: 3 points just from podium but keeping all of our 2 EBP = 5 points

Conclusion: We would need to pick the exact podium here (or very close of 2 drivers exact positions) to gain enough points to make up 2 EBP because I'm expecting Verstappen and Perez still to make Top 10.
Unknown factor is Ocon, Magnussen, Hulkenberg and Lawson but they'll likely drop out of Top 10.
Piastri still might make Top 10, while Stroll might not. Really difficult decision.
Currently, I'm not planning to change my picks but I'll make a final decision tomorrow.

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Quote from: CLS63 on September 16, 2023, 03:40:24 PM

Quote from: 1miau on September 16, 2023, 03:24:30 PM

And here's where it’s getting interesting. Changing our Superbru picks or not changing? I believe most of us have Verstappen to win (I have him to win as well), so changing picks is definitely an option.
However, will we be able to gain our lost 2 Early Bru Points back? It's very difficult to predict podium positions because we don't know if Ferrari will make a bad strategy call again and also how tyre management will look for Ferrari. Crashes can happen every time, bringing a safety car out, where position can change a lot.
We can get rain, where positions might change a lot as well.
We have Piastri and Stroll starting from far behind, not sure if points for Piastri and Stroll are possible.
We have many strange cars in Top 10, where it's not sure if these cars will stay Top 10 until finish line.

It's looking like changing picks is really a 50 / 50 option. Huh

I have also been thinking about this since the qualifying session ended. I assume that I won't give up on EBP points as it really very difficult to predict the result of this race. It isn't difficult to predict that a person who can predict podium correctly tomorrow will rise in the standings significantly. When it comes to Verstappen's statements after the qualifying session he isn't very hopeful for tomorrow.

Of course he is not very hopeful.He needs absolutely to have some rain,some crash in front of him or a Safety Car in order to enhance his chances to win the race.He should not worry much though as he already won 10 times in a row and is the absolute record holder in F1 history so far with a record that I find it difficult for other people to break this record.For tomorrow I have not changed anything in the predictions,is not worthy risking the 2 EBP points for a chaotic race that is going to be 100% tomorrow,I hope in some incident in turn 1 and a Safety Car soon after.

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