I think the +4.5 is a safe bet for Murray, but the odds are not that very attractive. But if it's a sure win, then why not?
Hope some of you cashed in on that my prediction. Handicap passed super easy and even ML was not really in doubt at any point. I love beginnings of grass season, so many opportunities to play against people not used to that surface.
There will be shitload of players who don't know how to stand on grass in Wimbledon qualification and first rounds. Gotta hone my skills before that.
Yeah, that was a good tip mate, love how Andy manages this game against Tsitsipas.
Nick might be different though, I think this is going to be another close one. I will take Murray +1.5, maybe he could steal 1 set but eventually Nick might be too much for him.
Berrettini winning the first set against Otte 7-6, and it's on the second set, 5-5 Mateo serving with 40-15 lead.
No I didnt take it Trofo, the odds were 1.25, I went with Medvedev @ 1.20. I did however
do ML on Andy against Kyrgios @ 2.21 thinking Andy has the firepower to trouble anyone
and if things start going wrong for Nick its game over for him.
I am accepting your argument that he has difficulty recovering between matches but not your conclusion. Grand Slams are special in a way that you get a day of rest in between matches. Shouldn't that work marvelously for him?
The day off between matches will work in his favour, but the fact that slams are best of five sets will work against him.
I'd suggest that if he wins a dramatic and lengthy five-set match against a tough seed on say a Wednesday, the chances of him being fully recovered and ready to repeat again in the next round by the Friday are very low. And the chances of him winning seven best-of-five-set matches in two weeks, which is what it takes to win a slam, is extremely low. IMHO the only way he could win Wimbledon is if every match is easy and he wins them all quickly... but this doesn't seem that likely. There are some tough grass players out there, and it's difficult to break serve on grass, which can make matches longer.
I should add that I'm from the UK, and desperately want Murray to win... but can't see it happening.
You got a point there but it doesn't make me change my strategy of forcing him at this moment. We have a privilege of seeing how his previous matches went before betting on next one. If he has two 5 setters in a row I am skipping him for next match 100%.
I still think that one day of rest means more than possibility of 5 sets. Especially if he manages to keep matches short.
Then I think we pretty much agree. A fresh Murray on grass and in current form is likely to win against most players... but the longer he goes and the longer and tougher the matches get, the more of a challenge he has to recover.
I suppose the big question for betting is what happens if he wins Stuttgart? Presumably the odds on him winning a match at Wimbledon will become less favourable. And this might be the case already, just with him beating Tsitsipas and reaching the final.
Good point Cnut237, while we all like our favourite players winning it doesnt help with the
odds going forward.
The match against Berrettini today is massive for both but more so for Murray IMO, a win
today will be confirmation that he can still compete, continue playing and sets new
targets.
Just looked at the odds there on Rollbit, Murray 1.90 - 1.91 Berrettini. -3.5 @ 3.8 looks
very appealing on Andy but that means at least 1 tie break in a 2 set match or 3 tie breaks.
