Topic: 🏈🏈 The American Football Discussion Thread 🏈🏈 - page 219. (Read 57641 times)

3.6% dude

No 2-point conversions or any other weirdness, each team had the same number of scores, but:

Panthers - FG TD FG FG
Packers - TD TD TD FG

So two touchdowns vs two FGs = 8

Granted the decision by Panthers to go for that last field goal was unusual. Most coaches would have gone for a touchdown in that situation, so it would have been 11 or 5 or 3 points at the end, all other things being equal.

SON OF A BITCH!

3.6% to be more accurate:


But aside from idle curiosity I don't know how really useful that info is. Bookies obviously have access to much more elaborate models and won't give away free money on something as simple as a point spread.

That's a good point, and believe me, math is a strong point of mine.  I can see that sort of thing happening while the game is in the early stages, but as time winds down teams aren't likely to settle for feildgoals when their down by touchdowns.  That stat about how frequently those spreads pop up is interesting, where did you find that?  3% is actually less than I would have guessed, but I can see that.



Lol, they sure did.  I thought I was walking on the wild side by taking them at -6.5!

Yeah, i take my words back, Josh Allen is GOD, 37.66 fantasy points, though refs robbed us of a few pts in the third with some questionable imo penalties/calls. I mean he will single-handedly get my ass to the championship game next week, i'm now with a projected 20pts lead over my opponent, and i have Davante Adams in a few minutes. He has been beasting all season long, i need a td or two and 100+ yards, and call it a wrap.

Have a few more bets, but too lazy to type those out:
https://i.ibb.co/kyjbzKH/jfhfgjd.png lost
https://i.ibb.co/S0zPkg7/sdfwege.png lost
https://i.ibb.co/Lzdp0pZ/fadhfad.png lost

edit;
-the number one ranked team on offense with just 3pts in the second half
-Adams who's avg over 100 yards per game, 8 straight with at least one TD, finishes with zero and less than 50 rec yards
-this is fucking aids

ps; the goddamn Jeudy, 6 yards short for my other bet, dropped 2 easy ones.

We've seen many bad kicks in the last few weeks but I think Broncos' new kicker is the worst.

Well Allen has came to play.  2 passing tds 2 rushing.  300+ yards passing.  And only in the 3rd quarter.  He is killing it.  My Buffalo under has gotten destroyed lol, well at least Allen is looking good today

Oh.. yeah apparently I didn't get it.


Edit: Well they covered 17.5 and you won your bet anyway, so I am awarding you the 3 merits.

The 17.5 is the Bills team total, not the HC If it was HC, the odds would be way higher than 2.28; HC-17.5 for the Bilils you could get for around 4.50. And you can't parlay ML+HC of course (would be nice, if one could though ).

Brave bet, bordering on nutty IMO. If you win this I will reward you with 3 whole merits. Bills @ -17.5? You must be expecting quite a stomping.

Hehe same here, what's worst for me is that my opponent had Herbert at QB and he killed it with 300+ yards and a bunch of TDs, i don't see Allen coming close to that, but we can always dream...lol

It was very hard to find something interesting for BUF/DEN game, but i ended up with Bills O17.5 pts + Bills ml + J.Allen 25+ rush yards for 2.28 total odds.
Buffalo average 320 passing yards in their away games (second in the league), but the Broncos have a decent to solid pass defense, so i went with Allen rush yards instead. Denver, in their last two games, gave 26 rush yards to Mahomes and 31 to Bridgewater, Allen should top that imo.

My Broncos prop ticket: M.Gordon III 40+ rush yards + J.Jeudy 25+ receiving yards for around 1.7x

edit;


Nope, that's Bills total points Over 17.5, not spread, nothing crazy here 

Yeah, it looks like he is:

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2020/12/19/22190288/buffalo-bills-vs-denver-broncos-broadcast-info-announcers-streaming-radio-television-week-15

I was tempted to bet Buffalo ML just to make the game more interesting, but its dropped to 1.39x... Not worth risking IMO.


Sounds reasonable.

Technically its not a "must-win" game for the Bills; even though they didn't clinch their division there's almost no chance they won't end up in the playoffs. Broncos... somehow technically still in it but an unappetizing team to bet on.

Two TDs vs two field goals? IIRC 8 points happens about 3% of the time, similar to 2 and 5 point margins.

I went with Bills -2.5 and Packers -3.5 today.

Yeah I'm steering clear of the prop bets.  Sticking with my over and under picks for the day.  Besides in ff playoffs and have Allen as my qb so I need a bunch of points/tds out of him today.  Wouldn't mind a 3 rushing td day for Allen though and zero thrown tds

The official NFL site's injury report: https://www.nfl.com/injuries/

The list doesn't specify the injury, but I think it's a lingering knee and ankle sprain he suffered a couple of weeks ago.  He's been practicing all week, so I'm sure he'll start.

I wouldn't recommend that one, since the Broncos are very thin in their secondary. They lost Toliver/Dawson at the Panthers and Bouye is suspended. @DireWolfM14 said that Allen is on the injury report, but I can't find him there, so he will be fit I guess. Do you have a link Dire ?

Bills ML looks the obvious choice, but the odds are a bit low for my liking. Will wait for 1.80 inplay. Same goes for GB, but here 1.50 would be enough for me, though I doubt I will get that. Panthers are a weird team this season, they are often able to keep things close, but rarely win. No bet probably the best solution for both games^^

-3.5 isn't bad, a touchdown vs. a fieldgoal will put a team up by 4, that's actually very common.  And +3.5 obviously if your pick loses by a fieldgoal. 

But a team closing a game up by 8 isn't common at all.  It could happen if the team goes for the two point conversion because they're concerned the other team is going to score a touchdown in there next possession (but don't,) but that's a huge risk.  Yeah you might be sealing your win, but just as likely sealing your loss.  No HC would make that call unless his kicker is on crutches.

A combination of two field goals and a safety could put a team up by 8, but again safeties are very rare.  I seem to recall a couple of teams missing the point-after a couple of times these past weeks, and that could do it, but none of the games I recall finished with that spread.

Agreed, I'd rather leaves everyone of those games alone.  7.5 and 3.5 point spreads always seem like trap games that gets ruined at the end of every game.  Under in the buff game and over in the Packers game

Buff 23 - den 13
GB 34- Carolina-24

Enjoy the games

That's the life of a 49ers quarterback.  Even Steve Young used to complain that the fans never appreciated him and he was always living in the shadow of the legend that is Joe Montana.  Interesting that as a whole we're still so picky and critical of our QBs, escpiacially after the revolving door that was the mid-2000s with Tim Rattay, Ken Dorsey, Cody Pickett, Shaun Hill, J. T. O'Sullivan.  Oh, those were painful days.  Painful.

You're probably right about Spicoli, all the hype seems to good to be true.  But, it would suck if we skipped over him and he turns out to be another Mahomes.

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That was a good game, it's good to see Mariota playing again.  One of my daughters went to UofO, so I've been rooting for him ever since.  I was surprised to see him, actually.  I hadn't heard that he joined the Raiders, made me wonder why the Niners didn't pursue him since Garoppolo is hurt.

I didn't place a bet until the Chargers went up 17 to 10 in the second, but then I jumped on the Raiders' bandwagon.  I wasn't going to do it, but when I heard Mariota was under center it seemed like a no-brainer.  Luckily I cashed-out after the Raiders' overtime fieldgoal.  I just didn't trust the Raiders D.

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Haven't gone through the props yet, but obviously Green Bay and Buffalo for ML.  Denver's defense has been playing a little bit better the last few weeks, but their offense can't compete with Buffalo.  Josh Allen is listed on the Injury Report, but he's going to start.  If he stays healthy throughout the game, I'd say Bills by a touchdown is a reasonable bet.

Green Bay could struggle running the ball, but when has that hurt Green Bay?  Sportsbet.io isn't giving the Packers anything less than a spread of -7.5, which is the most worthless spread in football.  I'll take the Pack at -8.5.  It's the Panthers for fuck's sake.

Anyone thoughts on the games today?  Was thinking of taking a prop bet for Allen under 2 pass tds.  In the last 5 games Broncos only allowed 2 passing tds...might take a stab on Buffalo too.  Thinking 23-13 buffalo.