Topic: 🏈🏈 The American Football Discussion Thread 🏈🏈 - page 221. (Read 58725 times)
I lost my parlay thanks to the Vikings but happy to see the Jets break the streak and take down the Rams it killed more than half of the users in stake's survivor pool.
Boom, Tua does it again with 2 running TDs. That was a great game, also especially because I won. First time New England's been out of the playoffs for 20 years... pretty remarkable.
For anyone that has not been rooting for NE for long this was a day were they got to watch a lot of things for the first time.First time with a 0.500 record or worse since 2000.
First time NE did not reach the playoffs since 2008.
First loss against a rookie QB since 2013.
Can't help but think Belichick is looking forward to a bit of off time during the holidays since its been a while.
I think it is the opposite, he is probably furious about not making it to the playoffs at all, and while I think Belichick the coach has been doing a good job even during this difficult season, Belichick the GM has failed during the last drafts when picking players for the offence, so I hope he uses his additional time wisely and brings fresh talent to the team especially at the QB position. 
From the pile of very-unlikely-but-still-happenings: we've had 4 safeties today and the day is not over yet. That's gotta screw up someone's spread.
Man, I just can't catch a break this weekend. I missed my morning multi by half a point:
Boom, Tua does it again with 2 running TDs. That was a great game, also especially because I won. First time New England's been out of the playoffs for 20 years... pretty remarkable. Can't help but think Belichick is looking forward to a bit of off time during the holidays since its been a while.
Sounds like Winston is out on the rona list and the Saints aren't planning on having Brees play the entire game, which definitely favors the Chiefs IMO. So I took Chiefs ML.
I am not feeling great about the afternoon games but I do kinda like KC -3 vs the Saints. I kinda figured Brees could be a bit rusty and they will be with out Thomas. Any thoughts on this game?
Sounds like Winston is out on the rona list and the Saints aren't planning on having Brees play the entire game, which definitely favors the Chiefs IMO. So I took Chiefs ML.
Well it's been a brutal day for me in both of my fantasy football leagues ( wheelz1200 I don't want to hear a word about this from you lol ). In the semi-finals and all my injuries/suspensions have caught up with me. Currently just hate watching the Bears and hoping they lose.
I am not feeling great about the afternoon games but I do kinda like KC -3 vs the Saints. I kinda figured Brees could be a bit rusty and they will be with out Thomas. Any thoughts on this game?
I am not feeling great about the afternoon games but I do kinda like KC -3 vs the Saints. I kinda figured Brees could be a bit rusty and they will be with out Thomas. Any thoughts on this game?
I have a similar 6 leg parlay but instead of the Dolphins and Rams I got the Vikings and Seahawks @5.25.
For my survivor picks I got the Titans and the Steelers was thinking of playing the Ravens this week but I had to look for alternatives since i'm running out of options for the final week.
For my survivor picks I got the Titans and the Steelers was thinking of playing the Ravens this week but I had to look for alternatives since i'm running out of options for the final week.
I have Bucs, Ravens, Colts, Dolphins, Titans, and Rams to win @4.49
I opposed you on the Colts win, but just for value reasons, in the end Colts should win this
I just don't see these teams that far apart as the odds suggest, after the game I will probably have to eat my words^^ Also thought about betting on the Pats, but I think one can get 2.5+ for them inplay (as you will get 2.5+ for Dolphins inplay most likely).Other than that I continued my dog day with Washington ML. If the Giants can beat Seattle on the road with McCoy, then WAS can beat them at home with Haskins as well. He just needs to take care of the football and their defense will do the rest.
Eagles I find a bit high as well. Lots of that is based on their good performance against the Saints last week, but maybe they can keep some momentum going into Phoenix and they still have some PO hopes
The ARZ defense concerns me a bit though. If they play like last week against the Giants, then goodbye Eagles 
Lets hope at least one dog bites.
I'm not gonna lie i had this bookmarked and set as a reminder on my phone today:
Law abiding citizen here, going against teams that are out of playoff contention, or have very little chance of making it, like the Patriots.
I have Bucs, Ravens, Colts, Dolphins, Titans, and Rams to win @4.49
edit;
Rams to win Rams to win Rams to win Rams to win
Quote
<.....> thats why you don't bet on a game with teams that are not playing for anything.
quote from Hueristic; https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.53474379Law abiding citizen here, going against teams that are out of playoff contention, or have very little chance of making it, like the Patriots.
I have Bucs, Ravens, Colts, Dolphins, Titans, and Rams to win @4.49
edit;
Rams to win Rams to win Rams to win Rams to win
3.6% dude
It's almost like I'm the opposite of clairvoyant. Next time I go on a rant about how this or that is so unlikely, please remind me of this episode, lol. I might just have to gamble on being wrong, and all will be well with the world.
Granted the decision by Panthers to go for that last field goal was unusual. Most coaches would have gone for a touchdown in that situation, so it would have been 11 or 5 or 3 points at the end, all other things being equal.
Yeah, that decision by Matt Rhule surprised me. You don't trust your offense can get you the 6, 7, or 8 points on that possession, so you'll force them to score 8 on the next? Fucking brain dead.
SON OF A BITCH!
3.6% dude
No 2-point conversions or any other weirdness, each team had the same number of scores, but:
Panthers - FG TD FG FG
Packers - TD TD TD FG
So two touchdowns vs two FGs = 8
Granted the decision by Panthers to go for that last field goal was unusual. Most coaches would have gone for a touchdown in that situation, so it would have been 11 or 5 or 3 points at the end, all other things being equal.
SON OF A BITCH!
That's a good point, and believe me, math is a strong point of mine. I can see that sort of thing happening while the game is in the early stages, but as time winds down teams aren't likely to settle for feildgoals when their down by touchdowns. That stat about how frequently those spreads pop up is interesting, where did you find that? 3% is actually less than I would have guessed, but I can see that.
3.6% to be more accurate:
Code:
MOV Probability
0 0.2%
1 3.7%
2 3.8%
3 14.5%
4 5.2%
5 3.4%
6 6.2%
7 9.2%
8 3.6%
9 1.7%
10 5.6%
11 2.5%
12 1.5%
13 2.9%
14 4.8%
15 1.5%
16 2.1%
17 3.1%
18 2.3%
19 1.1%
20 2.4%
21 3.2%
22+ 15.7%
0 0.2%
1 3.7%
2 3.8%
3 14.5%
4 5.2%
5 3.4%
6 6.2%
7 9.2%
8 3.6%
9 1.7%
10 5.6%
11 2.5%
12 1.5%
13 2.9%
14 4.8%
15 1.5%
16 2.1%
17 3.1%
18 2.3%
19 1.1%
20 2.4%
21 3.2%
22+ 15.7%
But aside from idle curiosity I don't know how really useful that info is. Bookies obviously have access to much more elaborate models and won't give away free money on something as simple as a point spread.
Two TDs vs two field goals? IIRC 8 points happens about 3% of the time, similar to 2 and 5 point margins.
That's a good point, and believe me, math is a strong point of mine. I can see that sort of thing happening while the game is in the early stages, but as time winds down teams aren't likely to settle for feildgoals when their down by touchdowns. That stat about how frequently those spreads pop up is interesting, where did you find that? 3% is actually less than I would have guessed, but I can see that.
Brave bet, bordering on nutty IMO. If you win this I will reward you with 3 whole merits. Bills @ -17.5? You must be expecting quite a stomping.
The 17.5 is the Bills team total, not the HC
If it was HC, the odds would be way higher than 2.28; HC-17.5 for the Bilils you could get for around 4.50. And you can't parlay ML+HC of course (would be nice, if one could though ).Oh.. yeah apparently I didn't get it.
Nope, that's Bills total points Over 17.5, not spread, nothing crazy here 
Edit: Well they covered 17.5 and you won your bet anyway, so I am awarding you the 3 merits.
Lol, they sure did. I thought I was walking on the wild side by taking them at -6.5!
Well Allen has came to play. 2 passing tds 2 rushing. 300+ yards passing. And only in the 3rd quarter. He is killing it.
Yeah, i take my words back, Josh Allen is GOD, 37.66 fantasy points, though refs robbed us of a few pts in the third with some questionable imo penalties/calls. I mean he will single-handedly get my ass to the championship game next week, i'm now with a projected 20pts lead over my opponent, and i have Davante Adams in a few minutes. He has been beasting all season long, i need a td or two and 100+ yards, and call it a wrap.
Have a few more bets, but too lazy to type those out:
https://i.ibb.co/kyjbzKH/jfhfgjd.png lost
https://i.ibb.co/S0zPkg7/sdfwege.png lost
https://i.ibb.co/Lzdp0pZ/fadhfad.png lost
edit;
-the number one ranked team on offense with just 3pts in the second half
-Adams who's avg over 100 yards per game, 8 straight with at least one TD, finishes with zero and less than 50 rec yards
-this is fucking aids
ps; the goddamn Jeudy, 6 yards short for my other bet, dropped 2 easy ones.
We've seen many bad kicks in the last few weeks but I think Broncos' new kicker is the worst.
Besides in ff playoffs and have Allen as my qb so I need a bunch of points/tds out of him today. Wouldn't mind a 3 rushing td day for Allen though and zero thrown tds
Hehe same here, what's worst for me is that my opponent had Herbert at QB and he killed it with 300+ yards and a bunch of TDs, i don't see Allen coming close to that, but we can always dream...lol
It was very hard to find something interesting for BUF/DEN game, but i ended up with Bills O17.5 pts + Bills ml + J.Allen 25+ rush yards for 2.28 total odds.
Buffalo average 320 passing yards in their away games (second in the league), but the Broncos have a decent to solid pass defense, so i went with Allen rush yards instead. Denver, in their last two games, gave 26 rush yards to Mahomes and 31 to Bridgewater, Allen should top that imo.
My Broncos prop ticket: M.Gordon III 40+ rush yards + J.Jeudy 25+ receiving yards for around 1.7x
edit;
Bills @ -17.5? You must be expecting quite a stomping.
Nope, that's Bills total points Over 17.5, not spread, nothing crazy here
Well Allen has came to play. 2 passing tds 2 rushing. 300+ yards passing. And only in the 3rd quarter. He is killing it. My Buffalo under has gotten destroyed lol, well at least Allen is looking good today
Brave bet, bordering on nutty IMO. If you win this I will reward you with 3 whole merits. Bills @ -17.5? You must be expecting quite a stomping.
The 17.5 is the Bills team total, not the HC
If it was HC, the odds would be way higher than 2.28; HC-17.5 for the Bilils you could get for around 4.50. And you can't parlay ML+HC of course (would be nice, if one could though ).Oh.. yeah apparently I didn't get it.
Nope, that's Bills total points Over 17.5, not spread, nothing crazy here
Edit: Well they covered 17.5 and you won your bet anyway, so I am awarding you the 3 merits.
Brave bet, bordering on nutty IMO. If you win this I will reward you with 3 whole merits. Bills @ -17.5? You must be expecting quite a stomping.
The 17.5 is the Bills team total, not the HC
If it was HC, the odds would be way higher than 2.28; HC-17.5 for the Bilils you could get for around 4.50. And you can't parlay ML+HC of course (would be nice, if one could though ). It was very hard to find something interesting for BUF/DEN game, but i ended up with Bills O17.5 pts + Bills ml + J.Allen 25+ rush yards for 2.28 total odds.
Brave bet, bordering on nutty IMO. If you win this I will reward you with 3 whole merits. Bills @ -17.5? You must be expecting quite a stomping.
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