Topic: 🏈🏈 The American Football Discussion Thread 🏈🏈 - page 222. (Read 58725 times)

Hehe same here, what's worst for me is that my opponent had Herbert at QB and he killed it with 300+ yards and a bunch of TDs, i don't see Allen coming close to that, but we can always dream...lol

It was very hard to find something interesting for BUF/DEN game, but i ended up with Bills O17.5 pts + Bills ml + J.Allen 25+ rush yards for 2.28 total odds.
Buffalo average 320 passing yards in their away games (second in the league), but the Broncos have a decent to solid pass defense, so i went with Allen rush yards instead. Denver, in their last two games, gave 26 rush yards to Mahomes and 31 to Bridgewater, Allen should top that imo.

My Broncos prop ticket: M.Gordon III 40+ rush yards + J.Jeudy 25+ receiving yards for around 1.7x

edit;


Nope, that's Bills total points Over 17.5, not spread, nothing crazy here 

Yeah, it looks like he is:

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2020/12/19/22190288/buffalo-bills-vs-denver-broncos-broadcast-info-announcers-streaming-radio-television-week-15

I was tempted to bet Buffalo ML just to make the game more interesting, but its dropped to 1.39x... Not worth risking IMO.


Sounds reasonable.

Technically its not a "must-win" game for the Bills; even though they didn't clinch their division there's almost no chance they won't end up in the playoffs. Broncos... somehow technically still in it but an unappetizing team to bet on.

Two TDs vs two field goals? IIRC 8 points happens about 3% of the time, similar to 2 and 5 point margins.

I went with Bills -2.5 and Packers -3.5 today.

Yeah I'm steering clear of the prop bets.  Sticking with my over and under picks for the day.  Besides in ff playoffs and have Allen as my qb so I need a bunch of points/tds out of him today.  Wouldn't mind a 3 rushing td day for Allen though and zero thrown tds

The official NFL site's injury report: https://www.nfl.com/injuries/

The list doesn't specify the injury, but I think it's a lingering knee and ankle sprain he suffered a couple of weeks ago.  He's been practicing all week, so I'm sure he'll start.

I wouldn't recommend that one, since the Broncos are very thin in their secondary. They lost Toliver/Dawson at the Panthers and Bouye is suspended. @DireWolfM14 said that Allen is on the injury report, but I can't find him there, so he will be fit I guess. Do you have a link Dire ?

Bills ML looks the obvious choice, but the odds are a bit low for my liking. Will wait for 1.80 inplay. Same goes for GB, but here 1.50 would be enough for me, though I doubt I will get that. Panthers are a weird team this season, they are often able to keep things close, but rarely win. No bet probably the best solution for both games^^

-3.5 isn't bad, a touchdown vs. a fieldgoal will put a team up by 4, that's actually very common.  And +3.5 obviously if your pick loses by a fieldgoal. 

But a team closing a game up by 8 isn't common at all.  It could happen if the team goes for the two point conversion because they're concerned the other team is going to score a touchdown in there next possession (but don't,) but that's a huge risk.  Yeah you might be sealing your win, but just as likely sealing your loss.  No HC would make that call unless his kicker is on crutches.

A combination of two field goals and a safety could put a team up by 8, but again safeties are very rare.  I seem to recall a couple of teams missing the point-after a couple of times these past weeks, and that could do it, but none of the games I recall finished with that spread.

Agreed, I'd rather leaves everyone of those games alone.  7.5 and 3.5 point spreads always seem like trap games that gets ruined at the end of every game.  Under in the buff game and over in the Packers game

Buff 23 - den 13
GB 34- Carolina-24

Enjoy the games

That's the life of a 49ers quarterback.  Even Steve Young used to complain that the fans never appreciated him and he was always living in the shadow of the legend that is Joe Montana.  Interesting that as a whole we're still so picky and critical of our QBs, escpiacially after the revolving door that was the mid-2000s with Tim Rattay, Ken Dorsey, Cody Pickett, Shaun Hill, J. T. O'Sullivan.  Oh, those were painful days.  Painful.

You're probably right about Spicoli, all the hype seems to good to be true.  But, it would suck if we skipped over him and he turns out to be another Mahomes.

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That was a good game, it's good to see Mariota playing again.  One of my daughters went to UofO, so I've been rooting for him ever since.  I was surprised to see him, actually.  I hadn't heard that he joined the Raiders, made me wonder why the Niners didn't pursue him since Garoppolo is hurt.

I didn't place a bet until the Chargers went up 17 to 10 in the second, but then I jumped on the Raiders' bandwagon.  I wasn't going to do it, but when I heard Mariota was under center it seemed like a no-brainer.  Luckily I cashed-out after the Raiders' overtime fieldgoal.  I just didn't trust the Raiders D.

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Haven't gone through the props yet, but obviously Green Bay and Buffalo for ML.  Denver's defense has been playing a little bit better the last few weeks, but their offense can't compete with Buffalo.  Josh Allen is listed on the Injury Report, but he's going to start.  If he stays healthy throughout the game, I'd say Bills by a touchdown is a reasonable bet.

Green Bay could struggle running the ball, but when has that hurt Green Bay?  Sportsbet.io isn't giving the Packers anything less than a spread of -7.5, which is the most worthless spread in football.  I'll take the Pack at -8.5.  It's the Panthers for fuck's sake.

Anyone thoughts on the games today?  Was thinking of taking a prop bet for Allen under 2 pass tds.  In the last 5 games Broncos only allowed 2 passing tds...might take a stab on Buffalo too.  Thinking 23-13 buffalo.

Nicely done.

I started the week with a loss, so with that bad luck out of the way I will surely win all remaining bets... I think that's how probabilities work

Wow, just a month ago Raiders were sitting at 6-3 record having beaten the Chiefs on the road, looking like a solid playoff candidate.
And then the rematch with the Chiefs that they lost (heart-breaking last minute drive and TD with less than 30 seconds left), 1-4 record after that and allowed 180 points to opposing teams, worse than the fucking Jets.


"I was in!" - Justin Herbert 

As i thought Allen and Mike Williams were pretty limited in their reps, only missed on Jalen Guyton, other than that it was a sweep:

https://i.ibb.co/HxHF79p/sfdgb.png
https://i.ibb.co/9stNVwG/sfgbfsgs.png
https://i.ibb.co/XYf4vFS/sdfgsgr.png

Thursday games are always killer for me... I always seem to be on the wrong side on Thursday.
After researching I stayed away from a side and just wanted to take the under on that game..
Well I did and guess what I lost...

Staying away from Thursday games for now, I always seem to be wrong. Fade myself next time?

Well, that was another exciting game! Could have gone either way for quite a length of it. Even though Marriota didn't turn things around to a W, they were damn close, and I don't think the Raiders are going to forget about that going forward, and next year. Quite a morale buster for Raiders fans who were still clinging to Super Bowl hopes. Maybe next year.

Marriota was doing the team well until the turn over. I reckon. It appears the Chargers will win the game with only a field goal.

Update - Chargers kicker missed hehehehe!

The game is going to over time.

Yeah Mariotta dropped in a perfect pass that td and is not a terrible backup like most teams have.  He isn't that far off from carrs level of play.  This game will probably go down to the wire.  Cmon over hit.  Fun rooting for both teams to score and score quick 

Is Carr already out for good ? After their last play I feel like this game is already over but we'll see.

Edit : Well, it was good while it lasted.

Editt: I already tuned out and was still surprised the Raiders keep it close.

^ Note that Raiders are missing some key guys on defense tonight:

source: https://twitter.com/PGutierrezESPN/status/1339720805094105088

I was about to take H. Henry's spread but Mike Williams and Keenan Allen (who were both questionable and expected to miss this game) are all of sudden active, which gives me second thoughts about my pick, dammit. Have a funky feeling Herbert might score a rushing TD, maybe i go for that instead...?

@suchmoon. I also like the Raiders hehe. They hired a new defensive coordinator but we cannot be certain how their defense can be fixed in only 4 days. However, they might not allow more than 30 points similar to their last 3 out of 4 games.

Since there is nothing better to do today and I know next to nothing about Raiders or Chargers (haven't seen either team play I think since they moved) - I'm taking Raiders ML. If I lose I'll blame everyone above shilling Raiders.