Topic: The impact of Russian and Ukrain war on world economy (Read 13245 times)

The Russia-Ukraine war does affects the global economy. Some people in Africa might think it's none of their business. But Russia supplies important goods like gas to many countries, including those in Africa.
When Russia is at war, there's less supply in the market. This causes problems because Russia is a big player in the market. If Russia buys goods from another country and can't buy anymore, that country needs to find new buyers.

But finding new buyers isn't easy. This means the country's products might not sell, reducing their economy. Russia also can't sell to other countries, making things worse.
Many African countries face economic hardship without knowing why. The war contributes to these problems, affecting money coming in through international  trade.

We should pray for the war to end. Trump promised to resolve conflicts in Russia, Ukraine, and Israel. I hope he does, so there's peace and the global economy improves.
The Russia-Ukraine war affects global economic stability, ending it is necessary for economic growth.

This reminds me of why a long time ago I saw that Russia was holding back its oil production as if to keep the price at 1 USD and this is something that really scares countries that have their production in oil, and that in a very Delicate way they sell oil to India, and that was the way Russia had to make the markets survive, apart from the fact that Russia is merely an oil country, if this is resolved, would OPEP then end? If Russia sells all its barrels of oil , it would be like a dump of oil.

War takes a heavy toll on a country's supply chain management, particularly on food and energy. The amount of firearms used in war will have a negative impact on food and energy, especially on green energy, which will surely affect the fauna in the biosphere. If there is no supply of nutrients in the ecosystem, we cannot produce food, so if we cannot produce agricultural products, there will be food shortages in the country. Moreover, due to the amount of energy being used in Russia and Ukraine, the neighboring countries will enjoy the negative effects of this energy, resulting in the creation of various complex diseases in the neighboring countries.

I take it you are a supporter of the concept “and the price does not matter to us, the main thing is to fulfill the order” ?

Ukraine, having less human resources and a smaller army, is fighting a defensive war. And now the task is to weaken russia's terrorist army as much as possible. And it is succeeding perfectly. As of today, more than 670,000 Russian terrorists have already been killed. It's not for nothing that Koemlev's pathetic parody of the Fuhrer has bribed Kim Jong-un with almost 20,000 bipedal expendables. In Russia they realize that the war is lost, there will be no result, only more and more lost husbands, fathers, sons, and few people want to go to war for the ideas of a crazy Kremlin Nazi ). That's why they raised the payments to 1.5 million rubles for signing a contract.

Once upon a time, the ancestors of the Rashists, Nazis, also entered Ukraine.... You know how it ended. We defeated Nazism, we will defeat Rashism !

PS I understand Putin is clearing the territory of Russia for settlement and assimilation by China ? Well, how will he repay his debts to his master, China?

And thank you, about the liberation of the Kursk People's Republic - very funny ! After all, according to the same Russian media, first of all, nobody captured it, and secondly Kursk People's Republic was liberated 2 months ago, as always, habitually for the lying Kremlin propaganda, “by destroying all the AFU and mercenaries from the USA and 100500 Abrams. With one shot from AK-74, which Putin held with his powerful hand, and with the other hand ruled the whole world and brought the West to its knees” ))).

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And after discussing another bout of nonsense from serveria.com, let's get back to reality and the topic.  A couple of facts for the last 2-3 weeks from “great Russia, which is not affected by sanctions, and the whole world is jealous”

- Potatoes, after butter and eggs, have become the new driver of inflation in Russia
- Russia starts buying butter from Turkey after production cuts and sharp rise in prices
- Russia will start banning cryptocurrency mining due to electricity shortages. I wonder where the electricity went, in a country with “the best nuclear power plants”. ? 
- The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation again recognized the placement of OFZ PK-29025 failed.
- Front futures for gas in the Dutch hub TTF by 14:17 MSC fell by 3.97% to 41.82 euros per megawatt-hour. STOP !!! You can't do that, you must freeze without Russian azz !!! 
- Indian banks have started refusing to work with Russia, following Chinese and Turkish banks. Hmmm... Isn't it friends who are with russia against the u.s. ? Or not everything is not so beautiful as in the words of propagandists ? 
- Russia is hit by a new wave of housing and utilities accidents: in the third region could not start heating after the onset of cold weather. No comments here, just have a laugh 

And thank you, about the liberation of the Kursk People's Republic - very funny ! After all, according to the same Russian media, first of all, nobody captured it, and secondly Kursk People's Republic was liberated 2 months ago, as always, habitually for the lying Kremlin propaganda, “by destroying all the AFU and mercenaries from the USA and 100500 Abrams. With one shot from AK-74, which Putin held with his powerful hand, and with the other hand ruled the whole world and brought the West to its knees” 

Tell me some more idiotic “news” from Kremlin propagandists ?

Russian occupation forces are indeed slowly advancing across Ukraine. But at the same time, they generously cover every new meter of captured land with their corpses. Putin does not take into account the catastrophic losses, and there are already nearly 700 thousand Russian soldiers, and drives them to the slaughter, because in this war, first and foremost, it is about his life and authority. No army in the world could withstand such a massive onslaught as is happening now in Ukraine. Therefore, the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not cling to populated areas, priority is given to preserving the army and its combat capability.

But in Russia itself, the situation is not as rosy as the Kremlin propagandists paint it, as evidenced by the help of soldiers from North Korea, who are now being transferred to the Ukrainian front.

Attacking Ukraine, Putin said that he was providing assistance to the Russian-speaking population of Donbass. In practice, it turned out that the Donbass region remained practically deserted due to forced mobilization, and the captured territories usually mean the capture of the ruins of populated areas. Even in Russia, they are already raising the issue that Russia, weakened by the war, will not be able to restore the captured territories of Ukraine, where industry and just normal business have almost completely ceased to exist. Russia is completely removing everything valuable from the captured regions, including scrap metal from destroyed factories, and in exchange, it is transporting household waste from all over Russia, turning it into a large dump.

But on the other hand, after three years of Russian attack, not a single one of the 25 regional centers of Ukraine has been captured by Russian soldiers. Ukraine is actively reviving its defense industry, creating its own ballistic missiles, long-range and high-speed unmanned systems. Therefore, Russia will still feel the power of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on its territory and it will not have time to capture someone else's territory.

It seems Christmas has come early for Putin and his army this year  

Just take a look at the number of cities and towns captured by Russian forces lately: Selydove, Hornyk, Izmailivka, Bohoiavlenka, Pershotravnevo, Alexandropol, Zoryanoe and many more. The Russians have also liberated more than a half of territories in Kursk region, which were occupied by Ukraine previously. The front is collapsing, the end is near.  

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-forces-advance-toward-ukraines-strategic-pokrovsk-military-bloggers-say-2024-10-27/
https://sputnikglobe.com/20241027/russia-forces-liberate-izmailovka-in-donetsk-region-1120691130.html

P.S. For Ukrainian trolls and their propaganda-damaged brains: guys ffs check your beloved CIA DeepStateMap website, I'm sure you can see the catastrophic situation of AFU even there.  

Putin, during his speech at the closing of the BRICS summit in Kazan on October 24, said that, allegedly, “about two thousand Ukrainian soldiers were surrounded in the Kursk region and their liquidation has begun.” "The people who are surrounded, they don't even really understand that they are surrounded, because, judging by the information that we have, stable command of the troops has been lost," Putin said in an interview with Rossiya 1, an excerpt from which was published by Russian propagandist Skabeeva on Telegram.
https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/7250940
Putin did not provide any more detailed information. However, neither Russian war correspondents nor the Russian army itself are reporting this.

Therefore, you probably cannot indicate on which section of the front in the Kursk region the Ukrainian Armed Forces were surrounded, because this is a fabrication or a distortion of some facts that actually exist.
Putin, at least to his domestic audience, needs to somehow justify why Ukrainian troops, which they initially called a sabotage and reconnaissance group and declared in the first days that they had suffered a crushing defeat, have been in the Kursk region of Russia for the third month, despite the fact that Russia has transferred approximately 50,000 of its elite soldiers from the Kharkov and Kherson directions. Therefore, it is necessary to exaggerate its victories already on its own territory.

It should be clarified here that in the Kursk region there are still no established demarcation lines between the opposing forces. There is not a positional war there, as in Ukraine, but a maneuver war. A group that has managed to encircle enemy troops may itself be threatened with encirclement the next day.

Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Syrsky called Putin's words about the encirclement of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region disinformation and said that Russian troops have lost 17,819 people here since August 8, 6,662 of them are irretrievable losses.
https://nv.ua/world/countries/kurskaya-oblast-isw-proanaliziroval-zayavleniya-putina-o-poteryah-vsu-50461502.html

In the same sources there was information that during the first hours when the AFU came to liberate the Kursk People's Republic from the Kremlin junta, their “second army” “destroyed, as always, at least 100500 Abrams, 127% of the number of produced HAYMARS and all mercenaries”. And now it turns out that, uh. they didn't destroy anyone?!

By the way - in Russian news about “successes on the front” there is one amazing feature - words are there, fantasies are there, but facts like photo-video evidence - NO Doesn't it bother you at all ?

PS And tell us, of course, about how they took Kiev in 3 days ? 

From the heavy delirium of fans of information crap in the form of Russian media let's move to reality and thematic information:

1. The discount rate of the central bank of the terrorist country, now 21%
"Sanctions are good, we earn even more from oil and gas" (c) 'never lying' putin (international criminal)
2. Iran has essentially destroyed its air defense/projectile defense system,and in the next pathetic attempts at terrorist strikes on Israel, Israel will simply destroy the oil industry. And the gas industry at the same time

Don't blame the people, blame their mainstream media that is feeding them delusions. It is like Bitcoin when we see people call it a Ponzi scheme, a scam, dead, etc. the reason is not that they are delusional; the reason is that their mainstream media is feeding them lies and because they had no idea what Bitcoin is, they just repeat it like a parrot.

It's the same here. I'm not talking about this particular user but majority of users you see on the internet who have an opinion about such matters whether it is Russia or Taiwan/China or West Asia (which they falsely call Middle East) can't even point to any of these places on the maps! let alone know what really is happening.

I don't know what you are basing your thoughts on. Russia is one of the most totalitarian states, where Putin has destroyed all opposition and there is no freedom of speech, and the security forces completely dominate this country. Throwing their entire army into Ukraine to seize it, even in the third year of one of the most brutal and bloody wars, and Russia is forbidden to call the war a war. This is considered discrediting the army and is punishable by a prison term. What kind of civil freedom can we talk about in this case?

Russia was considered the strongest country until it foolishly attacked Ukraine. Now it practically has no professional army, it is already rotting in the fields of Ukraine, and T-34 tanks from the Second World War are already being pulled out of stocks, because most of the broken armored vehicles are also rusting in Ukraine. That is why Putin is no longer shy about asking for reinforcements of soldiers even in North Korea, and about 12,000 North Korean soldiers are already in Russia to be on the Ukrainian front in the coming days.

Meanwhile, the Russian economy is completely deteriorating. Officials already admit that 40 percent of Russian housing and communal services require urgent replacement: not repair, but replacement, and the rest needs repair. But Russia simply does not have the money for this. Russia has vast territories that have not been fully developed, but the Kremlin wants to seize the comparatively small Ukraine at all costs and therefore risks everything, including the risk of the further existence of its state.

Here you can admire how the Russians hammer missiles into obsolete launchers with a sledgehammer.
https://24tv.ua/ru/rossijane-zarjazhajut-rakety-kuvaldoj-okkupanty-zhalujutsja-chto-boepripasy-starye-video-24-kanal_n2671905/amp

Umm wut?    I'm really surprised how many delusional people are out there. You really believe that Russia is going to lose this war? AFU are losing in Donbas, they are failing in Kursk region, literally everywhere.....  they are on the brink of total collapse.

Today, another news from Kursk region came in: about 2000 AFU troops encircled, blocked, cut off from their command completely. It's almost an entire brigade lost for no reason.  

Russia's terrorist war against Ukraine has been going on for 10 years - the annexation of Crimea and parts of Donetsk and Lugansk regions took place in 2014. It is just that the world looked “through its fingers” at that time.
What I agree with - yes, it turned out that the world, after 2022, when Russia tried to take over all of Ukraine, was able to adapt the economy and energy systems, giving up some of the resources from the terrorist country. I am sure that this was also influenced by the “brave statements” of the Kremlin fuhrer and Kremlin propaganda that after Ukraine, Russia will return the territories not only of other former Soviet republics, but also of the neighboring countries that were once part of the Warsaw Pact alliance.

Yes, however, I think it doesn't have that effect that it used to be if I'm not mistaken, this war has been ongoing for more than 2 years know and it seems the world has settled down a bit unlike in the beginning, wherein there are a lot of so called experts who says that the war will tip of the balance and many countries are going to be huge.

But looking back, and by the looks of it, Putin might not want to admit it, but it seems to me that they have been defeated and maybe this war is not going to last two more years. So the impact is huge initially but the world economics has learn to adopt and evolved.

Every country at this time has also been very aware of its weaknesses and strengths so that for countries that still lack a source and they still depend on other countries for imports or exports of goods, they will definitely fix themselves so as not to be completely dependent on other countries in anything. Because now every country's leader has become smart enough to see the conditions and situations of his own country and other countries so that things that still require other countries for their mainstay will be attempted to be owned by themselves even though imports or exports are still carried out for the smooth flow of the goods they need.

About the impact:
The big picture: The share of oil and gas revenues in total revenues averages 44-46%. This is a very weighty percentage of all government revenues.
Gas. Previously monopolized gas supplies to the EU (Schroeder, Merkel, Berlusconi - this is “thanks to you”) are no longer a problem today. The EU is supplied with gas, normal suppliers (Norway, USA) have received additional benefits, the terrorist country - losses and lost profits.
About “successful ruler of russia” and stability :
- Gazprom's loss in 2023 exceeded 6.4 billion euros. In 2024 they will be even bigger
- Receipts from the mineral extraction tax (MET) on gas in 2025 will decrease almost one and a half times - from 1.448 trillion rubles in the current year to 1.008 trillion. This is reported by TASS with reference to the explanatory note to the draft federal budget

oil. The situation with oil is purely speculative, and there is no shortage of it, there are games with the price. At the same time, with all the statements of the Kremlin propaganda that they sell oil at a price above the limits, the real revenues to the budget of the terrorist country are less than half of the declared amount, which brings the income closer to the cost of production and transportation. Even the Chinese and Indian media, the countries that now consume most of the oil from the terrorist country, write about this. Rupiahs and yuan do not turn into dollars, for which Russia allegedly sells oil. Moreover : rupees do not go to russia at all, and yuan only partially, and on condition that only limited groups of goods can be bought with “dirty yuan from russia”
Russia has become a cheap and obedient raw material appendage of China and India. A clear success !

The war in Ukraine still largely impacts the global economy by disrupting supply chains especially in energy & food. This has led to rising prices & inflation affecting living costs & increasing recession risks. Sanctions on Russia have shifted trade dynamic prompting countries to seek alternative energy sources. Unfortunately the conflict continues to create economic uncertainty & reshape global priorities, influencing investment & resource allocation worldwide.

If a country is commercially dependent on another country, if war breaks out, it must hurt the other country commercially. Of course, a country is never self-sufficient but has to depend on other countries for any import or export, and if a country goes to war for any reason, the price is affected if the import or export of goods is stopped.

I think Russians are also quite afraid of war but they believe in the leaders of their country will keep them well so they do not show excessive concern, in speaking the economy as we know there are some Russian assets in other countries in the freezing country and their supply Limited because some countries supported blocking, but with their confidence they have been very strong and proven that they can be independent even though some countries block them, it does not make Russia collapses too deep.

If they do this outside of Russia, it will cause harm.  Because Russia is currently the strongest country that no one can destroy.  As long as Putin is there because he has kept his country very well.Russia is good in this respect but not good for economy and supply.  Because if someone shakes hands with him, does not buy things from him and buys from other countries, then his friendship will be damaged.That is why no country has touched Russia yet.  If you look at it the people of Russia are actually free.  Who are not afraid of any war and destruction.

In my post from October 11, I wrote that in some main sections of the front, the Russian occupation army (ROA) outnumbers the Ukrainian Armed Forces by ten times:
"That is, having a ten-to-one advantage in manpower, eight-to-one in artillery, complete air superiority, the ROA is slowly moving forward over its own corpses, which in any normal state would be considered unacceptable losses."
I do not understand why you thought from this text that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have superiority in soldiers.

But in Russia, contract soldiers are also already running out, despite the constant increase in one-time payments for signing a contract. And Putin does not want to announce a general mobilization so as not to provoke internal riots. Therefore, by force or deception, they are forcing foreigners from Central Asia, India, Africa to fight against Ukraine. Without obtaining the consent of conscripts, they are deceived and threatened into becoming contract soldiers. In addition, North Korean troops are already appearing in Ukraine, and recently the first six servicemen of this army were killed by a precise missile hit. The first three training grounds for North Korean soldiers are already being set up near occupied Mariupol.

Very interesting events are expected at the front in the next one or two months, and the Russian occupiers will not like them at all.