Topic: The impact of Russian and Ukrain war on world economy - page 4. (Read 13382 times)

Double standards, my friend. So typical for the Ukrainian trolls. 

Anyway, Ukraine is throwing more and more cannon fodder into the Kursk meat grinder. All they could occupy so far is a pathetic strip of land (30x40km) in Kursk region with a handful of villages on it. As pooya87 mentioned, the Russians are actively destroying Ukrainian reserves (troops, fuel, armored vehicles) in Sumi Region of Ukraine to stop the attacking forces and eventually encircle and destroy them. Meanwhile, the shortage of troops and ammo in Donbas is getting critical and the front is about to collapse. Which is great, the war is about to come to an end.   

Brutally murdering 8% of the population of Gaza is not called defense. It is called genocide.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)01169-3/fulltext

How is invasion of Ukraine an "offense" but invasion of Palestine a "defense"?

Conflicts between two countries greatly affects a sizeable portion of the world's economy. Imagine if several conflicts happen at the same time. It would be nothing but a complete nightmare. Not only Ukraine is at war with Russia, but also Israel is at war with Hamas. Disruptions in both the Middle East and Europe will result in higher inflation over the long term.

Why do you think Gold is rising? It already made history by reaching a new ATH. The labor market is getting tighter, despite claims by the government that the economy is doing well. Will the Russian offensive come down to a halt? Only time will tell. Same goes for Israel's defensive. The future is uncertain, so we can only hope for the best.

It all sounds nice, but there are nuances:
1. You talk about “war between the two countries”, although in fact it is an attack by Russia on Ukraine, in violation of all treaties and obligations. Including international ones. Including the rules of warfare. Now Russia is simply destroying towns and villages in eastern Ukraine, turning them into a parched territory. It is also doing the same to the peaceful cities of Ukraine - constant missile and bombing attacks on dormitories, hospitals, schools, .....
2. You talk about economic problems of other countries. But you do not talk about the reasons and why the whole world allowed it.

When a war breaks out between a country, the world economy is affected just as neighboring countries are affected, because as a result of war in that country, no country is able to import or export goods with them.

We have seen how badly the war between Russia and Ukraine has affected the world economy. Because as a result of the war between these two countries, various countries have banned the import and export of all goods between them on the side of these two countries. As a result, the fuel oil market becomes unstable and the prices of every commodity become unbridled due to inflation. The effect of this inflation has become evident in every country of the world. When a war breaks out in a country, the production capacity of anything decreases, as a result of which the country gradually suffers economically.

When war breaks out between important countries of the world, the loss of trade between neighboring countries gradually becomes a global problem. For example, as a result of the war between Russia and Ukraine, they cannot complete the commercial agreements between their neighboring countries, as a result, the delivery of imported and exported products is greatly affected, resulting in a shortage of products in that country. Moreover, when a war takes place in a country, the neighboring countries do not want to create any new LC towards these affected countries.  Thus there is a huge loss of trade between the neighboring countries and the affected countries.

Fans of the “Russian world” criticize the actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces during the attack on the Kursk region of Russia from two sides at once - for the offensive being too fast and not providing the flanks with the necessary resources (@pooya87 on August 11) and here for the offensive being too slow.

I don’t know how the initial offensive plan of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was leaked to you, but in my opinion, even Ukrainian troops cannot capture the entire territory of the Kursk region with a force of approximately 10,000 troops in five days, that is, from August 6 to 11. And it was stupid to even plan such a thing. As @pooya87 generally correctly noted, in this case the Kremlin could transfer its troops from the occupied territory of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, and even more so withdraw some of those who are now continuing to storm the Kharkov direction, strike from the flank and cut off the entire advancing Ukrainian Armed Forces group from supplies and then destroy such a relatively small group of Ukrainians.

We see that the Ukrainian Armed Forces chose the middle and optimal option. At first there was a lightning-fast invasion and seizure of enemy territory, and now it is mainly about securing flanks for possible defense. From the left flank there is a very successful encirclement of Russian troops in the Glushkovsky district of the Kursk region. To do this, the existing three bridges across the Seim River are destroyed and after the destruction or capture of the Russian troops stationed there, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be able to relatively easily repel even superior enemy forces under the cover of this water barrier. I think that after this the Ukrainian Armed Forces will take over the right flank from the Belgorod region, where the first settlements are already being “liberated”. It is quite possible that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will even be able to strike in the rear of the Russian troops advancing from May 10 in the Kharkov direction. At the same time, a buffer zone will be created in this way, which will ensure safety for residents of the Sumy and Kharkov regions from shelling by the invaders of this territory with cannon artillery. Putin wanted to create such a zone in the Kharkov region, but the Armed Forces of Ukraine are currently doing it in the Kursk and Belgorod regions.

While the terrorist troops of Russia are covering every meter of the Kharkiv direction with a thick layer of corpses of their soldiers, the AFU has come to the aid of the inhabitants of the Kursk People's Republic. The inhabitants of this long-suffering republic asked Ukraine for protection from the Kremlin junta, constant shelling and bombardment of peaceful towns and villages of the Kursk People's Republic by Russian army fighters.

Panic in the Kremlin terrorists' tops reached the highest point, as officially, in Belgorod and Kursk regions (temporarily occupied by Russia), the state of emergency was raised from the regional to the federal level!
Well, how not to raise it if for a week the AFU liberated from the Kremlin executioners 82 settlements of the Kursk People's Republic. The area of the territories liberated by the AFU forces already exceeds the area of the territories that could capture (actually destroy) the forces of the “second army of the world”, i.e. the army of the Russian Federation, for the whole 2024 year in Ukraine.
At the same time, the liberation troops of the AFU preserve all infrastructure, help the local population with food, water and other necessities. In response, the residents of the Kursk People's Republic are helping to find cowardly fleeing and hiding soldiers of the Russian army, including fighters of the Akhmat gangs. To date, the AFU has captured more than 1,500 Russian terrorists.   

It is assumed that one of the goals of the AFU may be the return to the people of the Kursk People's Republic of the Kursk nuclear power plant, which historically belonged to this people suffering from the terror of the Kremlin Nazis. If this succeeds, almost the entire European part of Russia will be de-energized. This will have an extremely negative impact on Russia's convulsing economy.

In addition, all the assets that the Moscow junta has appropriated and parasitizes on the resources of the population of the Kursk People's Republic will return to the control of the people of the Kursk People's Republic.

It is expected to hold a referendum in the Kursk People's Republic, after the liberation by the AFU forces, the people have the opportunity to openly and honestly express their will and choose their path of development !

As I mentioned above, you're probably a poor chess player. This idiotic operation is a good example of a Pyrrhic victory. According to Wall Street Journal, the attack had been carried out by at least 10000 men (about 3000 already destroyed as of today) and lots of NATO armoured vehicles including Challenger 2 tanks and Marder and Stryker APCs. All this armada, including all these elite units like 80th and 82nd brigades, trained in the UK and a number of French "mercenaries" (in fact, actual French army) was opposed by poorly-trained conscripts and a bunch of border guards (not exceeding 4000 men in total).

But even then, Ukrainians managed to mess things up. According to the leaked initial plan, they had to capture the entire Kursk region, including the nuclear powerplant and the city of Kursk itself before August 11, which, of course, didn't happen. Instead, Ukraine is stuck in Russian borderland, losing armoured vehicles and elite soldiers at twice the rate it normally happens on Ukrainian soil.

So, it's great in fact and I could suggest AFU attempt a few other incursions into Russian territory, which would certainly bring this war to an end sooner.  

In other news: Ukraine finally admitted they blew up the Nord Stream pipes. I remember you Ukrainian trolls were spreading another lie "Russia blew up their own pipes". So how can you comment it now?    

I see that the defenders of the “Russian world” in other states have become dejected and quiet, because their forecast is not coming true. During the first ten days of the offensive, the Ukrainian Armed Forces “liberated” over 80 settlements with a territory of about 1,200 square kilometers of the Kursk region of the Russian Federation and the main one of them was the city of Sudzha, one of the former centers of the Ukrainian Cossacks. All these territories are inhabited by ethnic Ukrainians, so the population communicates with Ukrainian soldiers in Ukrainian and does not offer any resistance.

During the offensive, the Ukrainian Armed Forces captured over 2,000 Russian troops, and now on the left flank of this offensive, the Russians are in a catastrophic situation, since the Ukrainian Armed Forces are destroying the second of three bridges across the Seim River and a significant group of Russians will then be completely surrounded. The Kremlin could not get over the shock for a long time, and then they pretended to their population that such an offensive by the Ukrainians was insignificant, and now it is a little too late for them.
https://www.dialog.ua/blogs/300009_1723887840
https://www.dialog.ua/war/299999_1723846458
https://www.dialog.ua/opinion/299996_1723837678

In addition, the Ukrainian defense forces on the northern flank of the Kursk direction are encircling an important Russian logistics hub in this area - the urban-type settlement of Korenevo.
https://www.dialog.ua/ukraine/300004_1723879924

To prevent tens of thousands of evacuated residents of the Kursk region from provoking panic deeper into Russia, they are being evacuated to the occupied regions of Ukraine, including Mariupol, which was destroyed by the Russians. But thanks to the Internet, and despite the fact that YouTube channels have already been turned off in Russia, the ruble fell sharply against the backdrop of the Ukrainian offensive, and the entire Russian economy is heading in the same direction.

For the second week now, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been conducting a successful operation in the Kursk region of the Russian Federation. This successful and well-thought-out operation came as a complete surprise to the Russian troops and has great political and media significance, as well as very great military expediency. It was a big blow to the image of Russia and Putin personally. Now the whole world is watching how Russia has been unable to defend even its own territory for a week, which is a great shame for it.

The Russian army threw almost all of its combat-ready units into the capture of Ukraine, leaving its territory properly unprotected for defense, which Ukraine took advantage of. On the border with Ukraine from the Kursk region there were only young conscripts who, with some exceptions, immediately surrendered and the Chechen Akhmat units, who fled and were then caught by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. About 2 thousand Russian military personnel could have been captured by the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the battles for the Kursk region, half of whom were conscripts. This information was published by the Russian Z-channel “Airborne Forces for Honesty and Justice,” which is associated with the Russian Armed Forces.

By attacking enemy territory, Ukraine in any case draws back part of the Russian troops from the front for more favorable battle conditions, since Russia no longer has significant reserves. Therefore, even security guards of private companies, workers of airfields and other non-combat services are sent to the Kursk region, even 500 refuseniks who were near St. Petersburg are forcibly transferred to the Kursk region.
https://www.dialog.ua/war/299833_1723568217
True, they began to run away straight from the training ground in the Kursk region
https://www.dialog.ua/russia/299876_1723642448/amp


Russia uses scorched earth tactics in Ukraine, when fire from artillery and guided aerial bombs turns everything into ruins, which Ukrainian defenders cannot cling to and they are forced to retreat to new lines of defense. So slowly the Russian army is advancing on Ukrainian soil, while simultaneously suffering colossal losses. Apparently, they will use the same tactics in the Kursk region, completely erasing their populated areas and destroying their residents who did not have time to evacuate. However, in this way, Russian territory adjacent to Ukraine will turn into a lifeless desert, a buffer zone that the occupiers dreamed of creating in Ukraine.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces have surpassed Russia in the use of drones and, in conditions of mobility of combat operations and relative chaos, can use high-precision strikes to destroy columns of Russian troops moving towards the battle line, as happened on the night of August 9 in the village of Oktyabrskoye, Kursk region, where a column of at least 14 was destroyed trucks filled with marines from the 810th brigade of the Russian Armed Forces with losses of about 300 people. .
https://www.dialog.ua/war/299831_1723564272/amp

The war in the Kursk and then the Belgorod region of Russia will last for a long time. It is possible that some territories will never return to Russia. Meanwhile, President of Ukraine Zelensky said that as of August 13, 74 settlements in the Kursk region are already under Ukrainian control. According to him, the advance of Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region continues.

Why Ukrainian attack on Kursk Region is a terrible idea?

- AFU had to withdraw most (and some of the last) well-trained, battle-ready units from the Eastern front and Donbas, which will inevitably lead to losing more territories and much faster than it happened until now. Russians are about to capture Toretsk, for example.

- Belarus are moving their military closer to the Ukrainian border. They have already downed several Ukrainian drones in the border area. They pointed out specifically those were ATTACK drones. Just think, why would they want to point it out?    

- There's a huge increase in the number of Russians willing to join the military. Many are willing to protect their Motherland from Ukrainian invaders.

- Like many have pointed out above, attacks on Russia's nuclear sites, will definitely increase the tension and possibly lead to some catastrophic decisions by both parties.

Personally, I tend to believe that this idiotic move is one of this war's turning points, as important as the battle of Bakhmut or Avdiivka. So, I'm actually delighted Ukrainian trolls don't see this coming. As I mentioned already, they probably suck at chess. Check and mate!    

Now let’s discuss the scale of the Ukrainian offensive on Russian territory in the Kursk region.
The acting governor of the Kursk region, Smirnov, at a meeting with Putin’s participation, said today that 28 settlements in the region are under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. At the same time, the DeepState project names a significantly larger number - 44 settlements and about ten more are located in the so-called “gray zone”. As for the territory, Smirnov indicated that the penetration of Ukrainian troops into the territory of the Kursk region is 12 kilometers, width - 40 km. That is, the Ukrainian Armed Forces now control approximately 480 square kilometers of the Kursk region of Russia.
https://unn.ua/ru/news/v-rf-zayavili-chto-ukraina-yakobi-kontroliruet-28-naselennikh-punktov-v-kurskoi-oblasti
https://hromadske.ua/ru/voyna/229370-putinu-dolozhili-o-28-naselennyh-punktah-pod-kontrolem-vsu-v-deepstate-drugie-dannye

Today, for the first time, the Ukrainian authorities commented on the offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region of the Russian Federation. At a meeting of the headquarters of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine, Commander-in-Chief Syrsky reported to the president that about 1,000 square kilometers of the territory of the Russian Federation are under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
https://meduza.io/news/2024/08/12/glavkom-vsu-zayavil-chto-ukrainskaya-armiya-kontroliruet-okolo-1000-kvadratnyh-kilometrov-territorii-rf

It is not yet known whether the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been given the task of “liberating” the Russian regional center of Kursk and the nuclear power plant near it in the city of Kurchatov. Let's see how events develop further.

Russia is already a nuclear threat. Capturing a nuclear power plant doesn't turn it into one.
Ukraine is not a nuclear threat. Capturing a nuclear power plant with armed forces turns it into one.
That's the difference. In technical terms it is moving one step higher on the escalation ladder.

Another reason why capturing "Kurskaya nuclear power plant" is a stupid idea. As I pointed out any nuclear incident whether intentional or not could set forth bad follow up events. In worse case scenario Russians could blow it up with Ukrainian forces inside, blame it on Ukraine, use it as an excuse to use their tactical nukes on Ukraine!

Exactly as I said above. But only on paper.
In reality I already explained the problems with that in my previous comment.

The “special military operation” that Ukraine is conducting this time on Russian territory was definitely not developed by NATO. Such a bold operation in conditions of numerical superiority of the invaders in almost everything is not for their overly cautious brains. NATO does not develop long-term ground operations unless they have air superiority. Only the Ukrainian Armed Forces are capable of this. Therefore, NATO stated that they were not informed by the Ukrainian side about the planning of an attack on the Kursk region of Russia.

When it comes to the threat to nuclear security, it is not the Ukrainians that the world needs to fear. What you are warning about has already been happening since March 2022, when Russian occupation forces seized the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant, the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, and periodically carry out provocative actions there that could really end in another nuclear disaster. So, yesterday, on August 11, the occupiers intentionally or through negligence started a fire at this nuclear power plant, which seems to have been extinguished by now. The fire occurred at a technical water supply facility. As a result, cooling tower No. 1 caught fire and other process equipment was damaged.
https://forbes.ua/ru/news/pozhezha-na-teritorii-zaporizkoi-aes-pripinilasya-12082024-22946

Russian occupiers like to show that they are not predictable in their actions and behave like a Mavpa with a grenade. By retreating, they may well provoke another environmental disaster, following the example of the one they did with the Kakhovka hydroelectric station, blowing it up from the inside and causing unprecedented flooding of the Ukrainian region.

The Ukrainian command has not yet commented on the goals and scale of its offensive in the Kursk region. Therefore, it is not yet known whether the Ukrainian Armed Forces are going to take control of the Kurskaya nuclear power plant, which is already located several tens of kilometers from the advanced units of the advancing Ukrainian troops in the city of Kurchatov. In my opinion, and this is now being actively discussed on social networks, it would be nice for the Ukrainian Armed Forces to take possession of this nuclear power plant and then exchange it for the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant of Ukraine in order to prevent a major catastrophe on it in the future from the retreating Russian occupiers.

I wouldn't be so happy about Kursk if I were you. From a military perspective and only with first look, it may seem like a good thing to do, to take Russian territories to have something in the negotiations. Specially since THE big counter attack failed before.
But with a deeper look, this was a terrible move. Let me explain:

For starters, after looking at the maps it looks like those Ukrainian forces are going to have a lot of logistics problems. The supply routes can easily be cut and all those troops that went in could be cut off then either killed or taken prisoner.
Also I'm no expert but by looking at the maps, the position NATO chose and ordered for this operation is like a "wedge" that is between all Russian territory. You'll understand what I mean by looking at the Google map, I colored Russia red and the green arrow shows the rough direction of where Ukrainian forces are advancing. As you can see they are already half surrounded! Not only they are going into hostile territory but also their support lines in the back are already surrounded on two sides by Russia!
This means all their supply routes and logistics can potentially go under attack from two sides (two red arrows) cutting them off. Without constant line of support they may not be able to hold what they take for long.


Secondly, the way Ukraine regime is pulling everything they have to this new front, deploying lots of troops, ammunition, defense batteries, artilleries, armor, etc. it is thinning their strength in all other fronts. Russian advances could become faster everywhere else due to decreased resistance. Not to mention that Russia could open up a new front, maybe further north to thin the Ukrainian forces even more.

Finally from the perspective of third parties who aren't on either side of this war, we should all be worried because there is a certain stupidity involved in this operation NATO designed that inches us closer to a nuclear war. If what the analysts are saying comes true and Ukrainians manage to take over the nearby Russian nuclear facility and pose a "nuclear threat" to Russia, that could be be used as an excuse for Russia to also "pose a nuclear threat" to Ukraine. It's the same logic as "cluster munition" and a lot of other things. Russia started using cluster munition after US deployed this type in Ukraine.
Things could rapidly escalate to worsen the situation if those facilities are damaged, whether intentionally or unintentionally. The nuclear explosion inside Russian soil would only give Russia the legitimacy to strike Ukraine using nuclear weapons... That's not something anybody wants.

Well, let’s see how alive the Collective Security Treaty is, of which the Russian Federation and Belarus are members. Lukashenko is not such an idiot as he seems at first glance. He was confident that Russia would quickly capture Ukraine after the invasion in February 2022 and therefore provided his territory to Russian troops to attack Kyiv. But after the Russian occupiers were driven out of central and northern Ukraine in April, Russia failed to persuade Lukashenko to launch a direct attack on Ukraine.

Lukashenko will never give the order for his troops to invade Ukraine, because it would be fatal for his regime and he understands this. And not only because his 70,000-strong army will be immediately defeated, but because most likely a significant part of the Belarusian troops will go over to the side of Ukraine. The people of Belarus do not consider Ukrainians their enemies and after the overthrow of dictator Lukashenko, friendly relations will be resumed between these states.

Now, at the request of Russia, Lukashenko is trying to increase tension on the border with Ukraine so that Ukraine is forced to keep part of its troops near the border of Belarus and not transfer them to the Kursk region of Russia. Lukashenko will not agree to anything more.

And the offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region of Russia continues. In just a few days, the Ukrainian Armed Forces “liberated” more territory than Russia did during the entire period of the offensive on the Kharkov region from May 10th.

Firstly, this ridiculous counter-attack has been stopped already by the Russian forces. Ukrainians and foreign mercenaries have been destroyed almost completely (1000+ dead). Russian army are liberating remaining villages captured previously by Ukrainian occupiers. It's already clear that this pathetic offensive won't reach the Kursk nuclear powerplant neither will it reach the city of Kursk.

The reason for this useless waste of troops and armored vehicles? Most probably Ukraine is trying to strengthen their positions before the rumored peace talks as well as to slow down Russian advances in the East.

But, there's also another side to this incident, obscure to retarded Ukrainian trolls like yourself: Belarus, which is in a military alliance with Russia is now obliged to assist Russia militarily. It's almost 70k men strong army is ready to attack anywhere along the Belarus/Ukraine border (Kiev is only 260km away from the Belarussian border btw). You probably suck at chess, my little friend: you can't see beyond the end of your nose.      

That is irrelevant to our discussion and I don't care about it or what Putin has said. The two countries are at war, Ukrainian forces entering into Russian soil is part of it.

But still none of that explains or justifies the fact that Ukrainian regime is cooperating with terrorist organizations inside Syria against Syrian people and sovereignty.

And Ukraine also committed a “large-scale provocation,” as Putin called it at yesterday’s meeting of the Russian Security Council, by attacking defenseless Russians in the Kursk region. While Russia threw all its forces into conquering the territory of Ukraine, its own territory turned out to be completely defenseless. Russia itself has always attacked its neighbors and no one has ever attacked its territory, and therefore they were confident in complete impunity for their aggression.

On the morning of August 6, the Armed Forces of Ukraine, with the support of artillery and air defense, attacked the Kursk region of Russia with their armored units and it turned out that this was a complete surprise for the Russian Federation, and therefore immediately broke through the weak line of defense of the Russian conscripts, who had neither tanks nor artillery, and two days “liberated” the territory of the future Kursk People’s Republic with an area of approximately 430 square kilometers, including the strategically important city of Sudzhi for the Russian Federation.
https://www.dialog.ua/war/299561_1723118290
Within 2 days, the Ukrainian Armed Forces took control of a significantly larger territory in the Kursk region than Russian troops did in three months in the Kharkov region of Ukraine.

Russian military propagandists are sounding the alarm and claiming that the Ukrainian army may capture the city of Kurchatov, where the Kursk nuclear power plant is located. The Russian Telegram channel "VChK-OGPU" emphasizes that fighting is already taking place in Anastasyevka, which is located 40 km north of Sudzha. According to incoming information from the Russians, the Ukrainian Armed Forces can go to Lgov and then enter directly into Kurchatov. Therefore, Ukraine can commit a “terrorist act” to seize the Kursk nuclear power plant and then try to exchange it for the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant seized by the Russians, where Russia in any case would try to arrange a nuclear disaster following the example of the Kakhovka hydroelectric station.
According to the Russians themselves, the Kursk nuclear power plant is now guarded by the Russian Guard, where only women remain; the men have long been transferred to the Ukrainian front.

Probably, trying to hide inconvenient information, the Russian authorities did not come up with anything better than to completely turn off YouTube channels throughout the country at this critical time for them. The population of the Kursk region is already in complete panic, trying to independently evacuate from the combat zone, and without information about the rapidly changing situation of military operations this will be much more difficult.
https://www.dialog.ua/blogs/299555_1723111403
https://www.dialog.ua/russia/299556_1723111477