Topic: The impact of Russian and Ukrain war on world economy - page 8. (Read 11382 times)

Which never happened!


Oh, I got it, it de-dollarisation!
So everyone is dumping the dollar for other currencies and this keeps going up because...the US is doomed!
Meanwhile, the Russian ruble and the Chinese yuan are going down because their economies are doing great!

There is one thing I don't get it
If sanctions don't work, if a depreciating currency like this one is good,

if natural resources are the most important thing in the world, why has Iran dropped 40 places in the GDP ranking to undeveloped Africa levels:


Might be a hint of what's coming for Russia?

We cannot pretend that nothing is being affected at the cause of this lingering war and this has already caused many economic distortions from international countries having ties with both Russia and Ukraine because they don't want to be one sided against the other, i remember the move by some African countries that they make attempts in approach the two parties on the issue and address them on how they could hold back the unity that has cooexisted before and live together in peace in other for them to have a restoration of many opportunities that have gone at the cause of the fight, many countries were already affected directly or indirectly.

While fans of fairy tales and conspiracy theories, believe in fairy tales of a strong ruble, and Russia sells gas and oil for rubles, a bit of reality

- Russia does not sell gas for rubles. And never has. Reasons 2:
1. the backward and degenerating Russian economy needs currency ! Only currency will allow to buy products more technological than Chinese nails, although the Russian economy is not able to produce nails either )
2. The scheme of selling "for rubles" is open and described by Russia itself. And it looks like this: The importer country transfers currency (euros/dollars) to a special account in a Russian bank. This bank sells the currency on the Moscow interbank currency exchange for rubles. The roubles received from the sale of currency are credited to the supplier's current account In short, a fairy tale for those who have no brains
3. And while the ruble exchange rate is going down..... 90.25 "strong rubles of the most powerful economy", for 1 dollar "nothing secured" 

Considering the outcome I don't think it was actually a "mutiny" to begin with
Russia armed Belarus with nukes then sent these mercenaries there with the nukes. Before this so called mutiny, Wagner was nearly 400 km away from Kyiv, now they are 80 km away from Kyiv and a stones throw from Poland ready to do another possible "mutiny"; maybe shoot something in those directions while Russia claims they have no "control" over them referring to their shenanigans...

As for Ruble, I don't think it has to do with the recent shenanigans since the long term trend looks normal to me. Like majority of fiat currencies it is losing its value. Back in 2021 1 Ruble was 0.013 USD and then 2022 occurred where Europeans started purchasing Russian energy using Ruble instead of dollar so it was strengthened. Now in 2023 it is going back to normal and 1 Ruble is 0.011 USD with a 15% dump.
Most fiats are like this. Yen from 0.0095 to 0.0072 (-24%), Pound from 1.40 to 1.30 (-7%), Euro from 1.20 to 1.12 (-6.6%), Rupee from 0.014 to 0.012 (-14%), ...
Specially since US started mass exporting its inflation by printing trillions of dollars in the past year while increasing interest rate to keep the dollar exchange rate high, such dumps hastened. In fact this is one of the main incentives for dedollarisation.

The war of Russia against Ukraine has been going on for the 507th day, that is, next month it will be a year and a half since Putin ordered the Russian army to attack Ukraine with all its forces from the east and south, as well as from the territory of Belarus from the north. For many Ukrainians, every day spent under shelling and bombing of the entire territory of Ukraine is of great importance.
The biggest and bloodiest war in Europe since the Second World War, unleashed by the Putin regime in Russia, continues. Every day, tens of thousands of mines and shells explode on the territory of Ukraine. Of course, this cannot but affect soil pollution and environmental degradation in the region. Polluted rains with heavy metals will fall both in Russia and in Europe, and maybe even further. Therefore, the economic situation in the world will worsen.

Indeed, the impact of the war between Russia and Ukraine which has been going on for almost 1 year has had a major impact on the world economy. Many countries in Europe have experienced food shortages as a result of Russia banning exports, especially since oil prices have soared. If the war is not finished soon, it is very likely that almost the entire world will experience an economic downturn.

Dear Sithara007 - to clarify, no problem !
1. Name me the countries that now buy back almost 90% of Urals oil ?
2. Public information often does not coincide with closed information - I mean agreements.
3. Yes, officially the discounts have fallen. Even out of respect for you - AGREE But I will add - Russia does not get 50% of the oil revenues due to "friendly schemes" of both China and India. And it does not get 60 US DOLLARS per barrel, but a bunch of Indian or Chinese currency. Do you understand the difference ? Russia's economy needs DOLLARS, it is dying and collapsing without them. You can't buy high technologies, critical raw materials and many other CRITICALLY important imported products with rupees and yuan.
By the way - would you care to find and publish - what are India's restrictions, "in a friendly manner", for Russia, for its import transactions in rupees with India ? Not quite clear ? Let me clarify - India has imposed, for Russia, restrictions on buying Indian products for rupees, for critical products, for Russia. And sells these groups of goods to Russia.... FOR DOLLARS And not for yuan. Only for dollars. Look it up, post it - let the picture be complete ?
Yes, and at the same time information about blocking Russia's funds for oil deals with India

To summarize: the price on paper, and the real sale price and REAL income from the transaction - for Russia, these are very different figures ! And you will easily see that if you stop reading only what you like and study the real situation

I bet he can't explain. DrBeer is living in an imaginary world of Ukrainian propaganda. A world full of $30/barrel oil, Russia splitting into 5 separate states, Putin dying of cancer twice a day (every day), Ukraine getting Crimea and Donbass back this year, every single country in the world joining NATO, Ukraine defeating Russia and similar ridiculous stuff.  

The price of oil is going up, you can tell just by visiting your local gas station. Ruble is going down, that's a fact too. Mostly due to Prigozhin's mutiny. Prigozhin is a mercenary, so there's big chance he got paid to do it by some other "customer" if you know what I mean. Anyway, I think this effect is temporary and ruble will recover soon-ish. Prigozhin is already back in Putin's lap, planning some offensive from Belarus or whatever.  

Care to explain this?

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/russian-oil-discount-shrinks-87-to-4/barrel-as-sellers-game-shipping-insurance-to-skirt-g7-price-cap/articleshow/101619068.cms?from=mdr

As per Indian sources, the discount on Russian crude has decreased to almost nothing. Average discounts are now around $4 per barrel, compared to sharp markdowns of $25 to $30 per barrel that the Indian traders enjoyed a few months ago.

Also, this:

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/13/energy/russian-oil-price-cap-breached/index.html

The price of Urals crude has gone past $60 per barrel, which was the limit set by Western countries while implementing their price cap. And I think it will go up even further, as the Brent crude prices have gone past $80 per barrel. In the market there is a shortage of supply as a result of production cuts from Russia and Saudi Arabia.

For what I write below, I apologize in advance, it will be a bit emotional..... But I see this war from the Ukrainian side.
Tell me - why are you afraid to call the situation as it is - a terrorist mass attack on Ukraine by Russia, with open and officially declared goals of the aggressor country - to destroy the population and the country itself?

Regarding the dead children and the "conflict". I apologize in advance for this, it will be a very unpleasant example. I.e. in your concept, if a homicidal maniac attacks your mother, abuses her and tries to kill her, in court he can say - "No, well, no murder, no specific goals, it's just a conflict we had. Moreover, everything is not unambiguous, and in general it was she who provoked me, because she wanted to attack me, I was just defending myself. This is exactly the position you are now taking towards the situation in Ukraine... No offense, but I have already seen so much grief, death and destroyed cities that I am simply out of balance with the word "conflict", under which for some reason they are trying to hide genocide, terrorism, mass murder, violence, looting.... Tell me - are you afraid of the truth? 

And back to your phrase - "As agriculture in Ukraine came to a halt because of the war, many parts of the world suffered wheat starvation." I.e. hundreds of thousands of people killed, millions of refugees, hundreds of destroyed cities - this is such...not interesting, but the fact that someone does not receive grain, that is a problem ? Let me make it clear - everything in our lives is interconnected. And if you don't call a murderer a murderer, call a war a conflict and not a war, worry about some dubious problems, turning a blind eye to real crimes - you breed, support those murderers, and deprive those "starving people" of grain.



There are reasons for everything that happens. Both the growth of Brand oil and the fall of the ruble
There is no reason to talk about Urals trade at 60 dollars with India, when settlements are made with discounts, in rupees and in addition a significant part of the money from these supplies is simply frozen ! Don't hesitate to read Russian news, even there they write about "unfriendly behavior of Indian partners"

I noticed two things in the last few months. First of all, the price of Brent crude has rocketed past $80 per barrel, and this level was achieved after many months. The supply cuts announced and implemented by Russia and Saudi Arabia seems to be having the desired impact on the market. Urals crude is trading at close to $60 per barrel, as per Indian importers. Including freight and insurance, EXW cost is around $80 per barrel (still around $10 per barrel cheaper than Saudi crude). Second thing is that the RUR has been devalued at an alarming rate. In 12 months, it has lost 50% of its value against the USD.

It is striking that when you describe the situation about the death of children in Ukraine, you do not indicate the real cause of their death and their perpetrators, but call what is happening a "conflict in Ukraine." The Russian army is attacking Ukraine with all its military might, trying to seize its territory. The length of active hostilities is more than 1,200 kilometers of the front, where tens of thousands of mines and shells explode every day. More than 90 percent of the entire Russian army is now on the territory of Ukraine, and it is Russian soldiers who are now killing civilians in Ukraine, including children, women and the elderly.

The Russians are also openly robbing Ukraine and its population, taking stolen grain and other agricultural products, as well as medical equipment from hospitals and absolutely everything that can be stolen and of any value into their territory. Well, what can you do, Russia is a nation of thieves, murderers and rapists. Therefore, in a civilized world, they should be feared.

Ukraine does not have conflicts with Russia, it is protected from attacks on its territory.

The current military aggression of Russia against Ukraine differs from previous wars in that, having no significant successes on the battlefield, the Russians seek to destroy cities and other settlements of Ukraine, infrastructure and its economy as much as possible, openly creating artificial environmental and man-made disasters that will inevitably negatively affect the global economy.

Now the Russian invaders continue to mine the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant, hoping to blackmail the world with a nuclear catastrophe or at least for some time to slow down the current offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which soon threatens to completely collapse the Russian front, especially in the southern direction. Only the government of Ukraine's maximum information about this to the international community prevented the Kremlin from committing this monstrous act of terrorism, since countries such as China, India and the United States made it clear to Putin that Russia would then face a rapid collapse on all fronts. But the situation around the occupied Zaporozhye nuclear power plant is still complicated, because this nuclear facility is still mined and under the control of Russian invaders.

I will be brief -

PS I forgot that I do not communicate with the two-legged stools, sorry for the unnecessary contact, it will not happen again.
And you'll find the video, you're interested, plus you know what it was. In the meantime, I recommend that you watch more video of how the brave terrorist Russian troops, with joy and laughter, are shooting simultaneously in the direction of the AFU and Donetsk, with shrieks - "let's do it" to everyone!
Of course you can cowardly close your laptop after you start searching in YouTube "Russian troops simultaneously shelling the AFU and Donetsk", but you understand with at least one brain - your refusal to seek information will not change the reality
That's it, the dialogue is over with you - wasting time on you - the most stupid use of time

My little retarded friend DrBeer is hilarious. He didn't disappoint me this time too!


Well, if you make a statement you have to provide a source. Otherwise that's not a fact but a speculation. Is it clear?


No way, you're definitely retarded! If the Russian troops are INSIDE the powerplant who else can shell it? Imperial stormtroopers?   

If you have such a video do you mind providing a link for all to see? Oh wait, you definitely do! You never provide any proof/sources I'm kinda used to it. 


I'm not going to search for some video which probably doesn't exist as you saw it in your dream. Please provide the link or not spread this bullshit. 

Oh, hello microbrain carrier
1. what kind of links do you want? Where russian terrorists write "we booby-trapped the ZPP"? ? It seems about the micro-brain - I am optimistic about your abilities

2. About the report and the link - thanks for the laugh. What did you prove with this link? Does it say anywhere that the shelling was done by the AFU?
The Russian Federation is accustomed to creating beautiful shows - they shell themselves, film them, prepare "reporters" in advance, and then tell tales. This has already happened near Donetsk - there are many videos of them simultaneously firing MLRS in two directions - toward the AFU and toward... DONETSK  It happened many times in Donetsk, when they were shelling from one area of the city to another.

By the way, about the "shelling of the Zaporizhzhia NPP". - there is an excellent video - there a representative of terrorist Russia, showing allegedly shelling from the side of the AFU, ZES, comes up against the question - "and why the traces of arrivals, point to the direction from the side opposite to the location of the AFU?
On what the representative of the terrorist occupation regime, at first stumbles, and then gives the answer "Because the missile, before hitting the object does a turn of 180 degrees, therefore such are the traces"  

I'm sure you will not find this video only if you deliberately will not look ))
Go read the news from the fences

And what are your arguments? About the fact that the IAEA recorded external shelling of the Zaporizhzhya NPP? So the inhabitants of the occupied Donbass and other regions of Ukraine occupied by Russian invaders have long been convinced from their sad experience that Russia itself is shelling the territories it occupies. And what's new in this? Even recently, the head of Wagner PMC Prigozhin himself stated this, pointing out that Russia had already had enough of lying, and Ukraine was not going to attack Russia and did not shell the Donbass region, but defended itself from Russian soldiers.
 
But how to evaluate the fact of the mining of the Zaporizhzhya NPP recorded by the IAEA? After all, here it is no longer possible to say that the mining of the interior of the Zaporizhzhya NPP was carried out by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
https://www.epravda.com.ua/rus/news/2023/06/22/701462/
https://tsn.ua/ru/ato/zaporozhskaya-aes-zaminirovana-po-perimetru-i-vnutri-v-magate-soobschili-chto-s-prudom-2355487.html

And before the Zaporizhzhya NPP was captured by Russian terrorists, there were no security problems for the world from this nuclear power plant. Problems arise only when a Russian soldier sets foot on foreign territory.

I'm sorry everyone, but I don't find it very accurate to evaluate wars from an economic point of view. Thousands of children have died due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Syria and other parts of the world. Now we have to talk about keeping children alive. However, if I have to talk about the economic instability caused by the war, I think the biggest problem was observed in agricultural products. As agriculture in Ukraine came to a standstill due to the war, many parts of the world suffered from wheat-induced famine.

Firstly, you're missing source for this news yet again. Otherwise than that, what could be the reason to blow up the powerplant? It's being controlled by the Russians and there are cities occupied by the Russians not far away from it. Ukrainians have been shelling the powerplant for almost a year putting everyone around it at risk:


Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zaporizhzhia_Nuclear_Power_Plant

So, my little lying friend, you may lie all you like, nobody is taking you seriuosly. 

Tomorrow, or in the next few days, we are likely to witness a new "bloody show" by the Kremlin terrorist regime.
You probably all know that just recently, Russia committed a huge terrorist attack by blowing up the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power plant in the temporarily occupied territory of Ukraine. The consequences of this terrorist act are enormous - from the deaths of a huge number of Ukrainian civilians and economic damage, to environmental catastrophe. Losing the war, the Kremlin terrorist regime decided to commit another act of terrorism on an international scale.
As you know - in the spring of 2022, Russian terrorist troops seized the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. This is one of the largest nuclear power plants in Europe. Since May 2023, on the territory of ZNPP, not hiding much from the public, terrorists began to deliver explosives and to mine the ZNPP itself and the spent nuclear fuel storage facilities. At first, there were attempts at direct pressure on the international community, threats of "we cannot guarantee safety, stop helping Ukraine, otherwise anything can happen at ZNPP.

This attempt failed. The Kremlin decided to go "va-bank" and put on a show - Ukrainian troops shelling the Russian nuclear power plant with American weapons. So far, there is no exact data on how "qualitatively" the ZNPP is mined, but at least there is confirmed data on the mining of general purpose buildings and the waste storage facility. In order to fully blow up a nuclear power plant it is necessary to hit it either with extremely powerful means (at the level of a nuclear strike) or to carry out an INTENSE massive bombing of all buildings, including reactors. This is conditioned by the fact that all NPPs are built with an enormous safety margin and are designed for possible negative developments, including terrorist attacks and nuclear war. This was laid during the Soviet times, by the way, as well as the hydropower plant, which confirms that the hydropower plant was undermined from the inside by deep and massive mines by terrorist invaders, because such structures can withstand an ordinary missile strike.

Considering the winds in the next few days, in case of an explosion and formation of a cloud of radioactive dust, the southern regions of Ukraine, including the temporarily occupied territories, the territory of the temporarily occupied Crimea, as well as the Krasnodar and Rostov regions of Russia itself will suffer. But the Kremlin maniac doesn't care about his citizens, he needs to try to intimidate the world...
We are watching the development of the situation...

PS I hope everyone understands that the Kremlin regime has no right to exist, and there can be no negotiations or agreements with such terrorists.