Topic: The impact of Russian and Ukrain war on world economy - page 11. (Read 11386 times)

Doubters need to be clear: Putin understands only force. If you flirt with him so as not to allegedly provoke him, he goes further and attacks until he is stopped.

Ukraine is no longer afraid of Russia, let alone Europe and the United States. Russia already has 10-15 percent of the previous number of cruise missiles left, it has even used part of the emergency reserve, and it can no longer produce in the same volume due to sanctions. The Russian army in Ukraine is fizzling out: the long-outdated T-54 and T-55 tanks are being removed from conservation. In all seriousness, even the issue of removing the T-34 tanks from the Second World War from the pedestals is being discussed. Cases of attacks by Russians armed with ordinary wooden sticks were recorded. The vaunted "Second Army of the World" is buried in the steppes of Ukraine.

Russia was unable to break the resistance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and that is why it chose the tactics of regular bombardments of civilian infrastructure. But this did not affect the situation at the front. In addition, after massive rocket attacks, when power facilities were damaged, the people of Kiev went out to the balconies of their apartments in the dark and chanted "Putin is fucked up" together. Russia will not break such a nation.

Further, during April-May, there will be a powerful offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the liberation of the occupied territories. In Russia, they are very afraid of this and are now trying by any means to seat Ukraine at the negotiating table in order to agree on a truce. But this does not suit Ukraine: it would mean freezing the war until Russia gathers new forces to continue it. The people of Ukraine clearly support the desire of their government to finish off the enemy and completely liberate all their territories.

I think the situation in Ukraine itself is very concerning, western countries should stop sending weapons to Ukraine so that Russia is not provoked to fire more missiles towards Ukraine.

Indeed, during the year of the invasion of Ukraine by Russian invaders, its GDP fell by 30 percent, and this is not hidden in Ukraine. They also do not hide the fact that multibillion-dollar assistance is used monthly from other states to stabilize the Ukrainian economy. It's all in the public domain and everyone can get acquainted with this information.

Such a catastrophic situation in Ukraine arose due to the fact that Russia every day fires cruise missiles and all kinds of weapons at industrial and agricultural enterprises of Ukraine, seeks to completely destroy its civilian infrastructure, including schools and hospitals, housing for civilians, the cultural heritage of Ukraine, a special while paying attention to the destruction of critical infrastructure in order to deprive women, children and the elderly of light, water and heat. Not a single state in the world is able to manage on its own during such barbaric bombardments, as well as wholesale robberies of everything that the hand of a Russian soldier can reach in the occupied territories of Ukraine. Well, the people of Russia can still be proud of these war crimes. But then many generations of occupiers will have to pay for everything. Everything has its time.

Perhaps this is a defensive reaction of the Ukrainian psyche, who prefers not to notice that the economy of his country is completely dependent on foreign subsidies, and GDP has fallen by 30% over the year. In such difficult life circumstances, it is easy to lose all connection with reality. Let's be more forgiving, it is not known how each of us would behave in a similar situation.

Source?


Source?


In fact, feeding the article to Google Translate produced this:

  “We have returned the economy to a growth trajectory. Now even some international organizations are predicting positive dynamics for us by the end of 2023 and achieving GDP growth rates higher than those of developed countries in 2024,” the Prime Minister stressed.

Thanks to the work of the leadership of the Central Bank, the work of credit institutions, the currency and stock markets was normalized, Russia avoided external blocking of trade operations within the country. “Payment for goods, services, transfers proceed as before. All bank cards in Russia that were used work. We also managed to reduce inflationary pressure and maintain the stability of the banking sector,” the Head of Government noted.

Thanks to the support of the authorities, Russian business has rebuilt its commodity and logistics chains and adapted to new conditions, Mikhail Mishustin emphasized. According to him, in 2022, 83 companies registered in "Russian offshores", which is three times more than in the previous year.

So the question is: why are you spreading propaganda and blatant lies? 


So what we've got? 4 news, 2 without sources and highly improbable, 1 fake news and an article from a questionable website sponsored/owned by the Dutch company with a connection to CIA? 

Despite its lack of military superiority in Ukraine, Russia has not lost its global position with the support of China and other strong economies. Work is now underway to export gas through Turkey, and no matter how much the boycott campaign increases, the world cannot dispense with Russian wheat, especially since Ukrainian wheat is prevented from reaching the markets due to the pressures of the war.
Last Monday, Putin pledged to provide African countries with grain for free if the agreement to transport grain through the ports of the Black Sea is not extended next May. He also announced that his country will cancel debts owed by African countries worth $20 billion. Does this sound like a failed state strategy to you?

"Victory after victory"

The Kremlin acknowledged the loss of the last ally in Europe: Russia declared Hungary an “unfriendly” country
"Hungary has signed up to all anti-Russian sanctions packages," the Russian ambassador in Budapest complained.

The third mobilization, at the request of the Kremlin's pathetic Fuhrer, should be 400,000 Russians, who again just go to the slaughter. Consider my forecast until the New Year 2023 - the third wave, as I planned, will be in late spring - early summer Putin, for the sake of his painful fantasies, is ready to send another 400,000 of his citizens to the next world ....

Mishustin stated the increase in the hole in the Russian budget
Russia's federal budget deficit continues to grow, said Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, speaking with a report on the work of the government in the State Duma.
duma.gov.ru

Two largest Western traders announced a boycott of Russian grain
Russian grain producers, who harvested a record harvest last year and earned almost $14 billion in foreign exchange earnings for the economy, faced a boycott by key Western partners.
The two largest international traders, who have exported a total of 3.5 million tons of Russian grain since the summer of 2022, simultaneously decided to abandon Russian products.
The American Cargill, which provided 1.4 million tons of Russian grain exports, notified the Ministry of Agriculture that it would suspend the export of grain from the Russian Federation from July 1, 2023. The company explained its step by the growing difficulties in working with Russia: although grains did not fall under the sanctions of the United States and the European Union, restrictions on banks and state-owned companies make it difficult to pay for transactions.
Viterra, one of the largest agricultural traders in the world, has decided to abandon Russian grain, which is connected with the Swiss commodity trader Glencore.
https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2023/03/29/dva-krupneishih-zapadnih-treidera-obyavili-boikot-rossiiskomu-zernu-a38466


... Putin managed to turn Russia, located in Asia and Europe, from a country with good potential and prospects into a third world country that has degraded economically, morally, technologically! Only with negative prospects. In just 1 year!

Indeed, war has far-reaching impacts, not only on the countries involved but also on the world economy. The Russia vs Ukraine war is no exception. The war has been going on for over a year and has caused a lot of damage and economic disruption. It is important to understand that war is costly and can have severe economic consequences for both parties involved. It is in everyone's best interest to seek a peaceful resolution and avoid war whenever possible.

The war in Ukraine also had an impact on the crypto market. As the conflict creates uncertainty and instability in the region, investors may view crypto as a safe haven asset and use it as a way to protect their wealth.

In addition, countries may impose sanctions on each other, including restrictions on traditional banking systems. This may lead to increased demand for cryptocurrencies as a way to circumvent these restrictions and continue cross-border transactions. However, the impact of war on the crypto market can also be negative if it leads to a decrease in economic activity and a decrease in overall investment.

Your opinion has the right to life, as well as your opinion, and your point of view. It does not contradict anything, and it is normal for a democratic society to express different views!

But I have mine

I'm just a supporter of the approach that everything that happens has a logical, causal relationship. Yes - sometimes not lying on the surface.

And what is happening today in Ukraine, and not only in Ukraine and not only now - has its own point of "origin", action, or inaction.

And many thousands of forced migrants both inside Ukraine and those leaving Ukraine are a consequence. And yes, I don't judge people either. This is their attempt to escape, survive, settle down ... But not everyone does this. I didn't go anywhere, I stayed in Kiva, and my whole family stayed with me. My son supported me and together we enrolled in the Territorial Defense of Kyiv. Although I still have the opportunity to leave Ukraine! But I will not use this - this is MY country, this is MY land, this is MY homeland, and I will defend my right to live on my land, in my country, with my human laws! This is my choice, while I repeat once again - I do not blame those who left. I have one friend - he left in March 2022. I respect him for telling the truth. So he said - yes, I'm afraid, yes, I don't want to die. But I don't know how to fight, I'm weak physically. But I will earn money in Europe and I will transfer it to help ZSU, volunteer battalions, etc. and I will provide logistics from the EU to Ukraine. And he did. Through him, we bring to Ukraine a huge amount of much-needed help for us, something that does not go through official channels. And this person really brought more benefits than if he just ran with a machine gun.

Regarding the future, I agree about Russia and Belarus. Russia deserves to "serve its punishment", Belarus is a pity, but I hope after the defeat of Russia, and the Belarusian dictator will fall, and the fraternal people of Belarus will finally gain FREEDOM!

Ukraine will be all right - believe me! We know a hundred things to live well and right, we love to create and create comfort for ourselves. Our meaning of life is to live qualitatively and richly, and not for the sake of painful complexes of a crazy king

You have completely distorted the facts of objective reality, which are now taking place in Ukraine around the Kiev-Pechersk Lavra.

Kiev-Pechersk Lavra is a national reserve and belongs to the state of Ukraine.
The leadership of the National Reserve "Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra" demanded that the UOC of the Moscow Patriarchate leave the territory of the Lavra before March 29, based on the fact that due to violation of the lease terms by representatives of the UOC (MP), the lease was not extended. Besides,
the conducted examination found that the UOC-MP unreasonably calls itself Ukrainian and is actually part of the Russian Orthodox Church, which now supports the war in Ukraine and calls on Russians to kill Ukrainians. Many representatives of the so-called UOC-MP are agents of the Russian FSB and are accused of aiding the Russian occupiers and collaborating. The demand to expel Russian priests from the Ukrainian saints comes from the Ukrainian people and is supported by the government of Ukraine. This is not a persecution of the church, as Russia wants to present it.

The Kiev Pechersk Lavra will remain a national museum and representatives of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church will serve there. Already, the Primate of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine (OCU), Metropolitan Epiphanius, has appointed the Acting Viceroy of the Holy Dormition Kiev-Pechersk Lavra. They became a member of the Spiritual Council of the Lavra, Archimandrite Abraham. Metropolitan Epiphanius expressed the hope that the state would help protect the governor and the monastery from possible provocations by adherents of the Moscow Patriarchate.

The Russian language has never been banned in Ukraine. Every citizen of Ukraine can freely communicate with any language, including Russian. However, the Russian language is now deprived of the status of the state language and officials in business correspondence and communication with citizens were obliged to use the Ukrainian language as the only state language. Under the USSR, the Russian language was planted in all Soviet republics, and therefore, when attacking Ukraine, Russia used a far-fetched pretext to protect the Russian-speaking population.

The Zelensky junta has asked Ukraine's Orthodox Church (UOC) to vacate the premises of their headquarters (Pechersk Lavra). Now with every passing day, the actions of the junta is looking more like a genocide and ethnocide. First they banned a language that is used as a home language by more than 80% of the population. And now they are forcibly converting the Ukrainians to foreign faiths such as Catholicism and Evangelism. At the end of this war, both the sides will be tried for war crimes. And for Ukraine, the trial is going to be a lot more problematic than it is for Russia.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65117269

In light of recent events, it's clear that political and corporate relationships don't last forever in today's dynamic globe. Putin's actions and repercussions have altered international politics in addition to the global economy. Worryingly, the leader of the Kremlin is reaching out to aid out smaller countries. This exemplifies how defenseless people are and how aimless their lives are.

But keep in mind that every coin has two sides. Backing Iran's nuclear ambitions and North Korea's provocations will only bring to negative outcomes. This kind of action can no longer be ignored, and it appears that an operation to destroy Iran's nuclear sites is imminent. The decisions we make now will have lasting repercussions on the future of our kids and grandkids. Now is the time for us to band together as one human family and shape the future in our collective image.

Xi's observation that we're experiencing unprecedented change within a human lifetime is spot on. Let's not lose sight of the fact that we're in this together as a group. Let's improve the earth for our sake and the sake of future generations

I am a supporter of the point of view that there are no causal relationships in the world.  More precisely, of course, they exist, but they are so complex that they are inaccessible for analysis by an outside observer.  One cause may have several effects, or may not have any ...

Complex systems obey the laws of cybernetics (positive feedback, negative feedback).  As a result, it turns out that it is impossible to build a model for the forecast. 

I don't know what will happen to North Korea, India, China and other countries.  However, it can be said with great certainty that everything will be bad on the territory of Russia, Ukraine and Belarus. 

Therefore, I do not condemn those people who are now leaving this region somewhere for Australia or New Zealand.  Why not? 

If you see that the people around you are behaving completely inadequate, what can you do?  How can the intellect stand up to a reptilian brain that is millions of years old? 

On the other hand, and those who remain, I also can not blame.  And I have no right. 

I am more concerned about two questions - when all this is over, where will people return?  Or will the world change so much that there will be nowhere to return?  And will anyone come back?  Maybe people will change so much internally that they will no longer be who they were originally? 

It's like in The Lord of the Rings - Galadriel gave Sam magical seeds that can be thrown into any land and a garden will grow.  And when Sam returned to the devastated Shire, he grew a garden.  And (most importantly) he remained in his soul the same hobbit that he was at the beginning of his journey (unlike Frodo, who was killed by the war). 

And the main question, it seems to me, is just this: will there be a gardener in our situation who can grow a garden again?  When will all this end?

Now I will express my opinion. There will be many letters, but interesting thoughts come in the light of recent events.

It seems that the influence of Putin's pre-mortal activities will lead not only to economic influence but also to political changes in the world. And not for the benefit of outcast countries, such as Russia
If you study the news extensively about the activities of the Kremlin Fuhrer, then the following picture will emerge:
Realizing that the war is lost, the pathetic Kremlin Fuhrer is trying through all the "holes" to get at least some kind of support! These are UAVs begged from Iran, these are shells from North Korea, these are T34 tanks from Cambodia ... In the future, perhaps - North Korea will give up to 400,000 North Korean disposable citizens But this is all already "dust". Every action has a second side. For example, Iran has clearly received support from Russia in the development of nuclear weapons. North Korea - perhaps money in the pocket of Kim Jong-un and the continuation of clowning ...
As a result, we get: An operation to destroy its nuclear facilities will soon begin against Iran. And with them, most likely, the regime of the Ayatollah. North Korea - most likely will cease to be a "zoo" that feeds the whole world, and soon everything will end with the termination of their provision, and in the future - severe pressure on this world sewer. And also about all the "friends of the Kremlin" - "thanks" to their friendship with the terrorists of the Kremlin, they have real problems ahead!
China, logically chooses interaction with the Western world. India is making the same choice. These countries were called "friends of Russia" yesterday. True, only the Russians themselves called them "Friends", trying to convince themselves of "large international support"
In fact - that India, that China, simply "used" Russia, for a penny, and now they are turning away from it. No, China has not turned away at all. China has already begun to add to its map, a new, backward, depressive Chinese region - "NovoKitaishchina" or "KitaRusiya"

Therefore, we are stocking up on popcon - Xi correctly said "we are on the verge of changes that have not been seen for 100 years." True, Putin did not understand this at all correctly

Another problem with green energy is that it is not that "green" anymore. Production of EVs require huge amounts of Cobalt and Lithium, and extraction of these minerals has resulted in considerable ecological damage. And then the obvious fact that green energy is expensive. In developed nations, people maybe able to afford electricity at $0.30 per KWh. But in the third world, that would mean less money to spend on food and medical care. The only affordable version of green energy is nuclear, but the tree-huggers are rabidly against it.

Yes but green energy has one significant drawback - it's expensive. And now, while the World economy hasn't recovered from covid blow and war blow swift migration to green energy is dangerous, because of huge expenses. Inflation, debt, layoffs etc etc and rapid shift to green energy is additional stress for common people. It should be done step-by-step and with some caution.

You can see positive things in everything. The reserves of oil and gas on our planet are rapidly depleted. Mankind still needs to switch to alternative energy sources, especially in the light of recent events related to drastic climate change just because of the massive use of these carbohydrates. The rise in oil and gas prices will accelerate the transition to other types of energy, and above all to "green" energy.

Back in 2020, pipeline natural gas was trading at $100 to $150 per thousand cubic meters. Now it's trading at $500 to $600 per k.cu.m (at one point in 2022, prices had crossed $3,000 per k.cu.m, but then it came down). At current levels, producing Ammonia fertilizer from natural gas is unaffordable for most of the industrial units. On top of that, the price of potash fertilizer has also risen thanks to the Russo-Ukrainian war (most of the global production comes from Russia and Belarus). And as a final nail in the coffin, the freight rates have also increased by manytimes.

Let me dispel your strongly negative assumptions?
1. No more problems with hydrocarbons! Markets have redistributed, suppliers have changed. Moreover, Russian oil has fallen dramatically in price, which affects the cost of all derivatives from it. India and China buy it in huge quantities at a price of 30-35 dollars per barrel (although many do not like this information ). So there is no less oil, no less gas, but the price is still, temporarily, a little higher than the "pre-crisis" one.
2. Ukraine was the largest supplier of krypton gas to the world market (approximately 40% of the total world production). And yes, at the beginning of a new Russian terrorist attack on Ukraine, many foreshadowed the collapse of the processor market, due to problems with krypton. BUT .. As you can see - no collapse occurred, although production in Ukraine decreased - the barbaric terrorist goal of the "Russian world" is to completely destroy everything that the neighbor has. What they did with respect to one enterprise in the east of Ukraine. Nothing, we Ukrainians are hardworking people - we will rebuild and revive production

The gas price and restriction in supply has greatly effected fertilizer production which does become a global problem quite easily.   I already thought food production was a bull market this decade and the next but this unforeseen restriction has and will continue to cause problems in many countries.  It also restricts self production and requires countries to import even more foreign food produce, more stress on the dollar and global trade.
  Apparently Ukraine was a source of gas of another kind used in chip production.  Some stocks were stored for this event but eventually it will require alternate sources to appear or again the whole world has a constriction on chip supply and design or so I've read.   Again the market was already tight and disrupted in order flow by covid.