Topic: The impact of Russian and Ukrain war on world economy - page 11. (Read 13245 times)

But the reasons for this are banal and transparent - after the terrorist country withdrew from the grain deal (about the reasons below separately), they decided to "raise the degree" again, and came up with a new topic - now all ships going to Ukrainian ports, ANY SHIPS, in the water area Black Sea, Russia considers "transporting weapons, which means legitimate purposes." That is another classic terror.
It seems that everything should work out, and the world would again start looking for a solution, something like accepting the conditions of a terrorist country. The decision came unexpectedly. A day later, Ukraine officially announced that they were making a symmetrical decision - and all Russian ships in the Black and Azov Seas are now absolutely legitimate targets, and will be destroyed. And a day later they showed exactly how
And now, Russia is in a situation where she got what she decided to threaten. But Ukraine's actions have proved even more difficult for Russia - in addition to the fact that Russia is now unable to export grain, which is one of the key mechanisms for obtaining currency, most of the tankers unofficially transporting oil have stopped and become targets.
The goal of Russia, in withdrawing from the grain deal, is to increase dependence on Russian grain and thereby greatly increase its price, having previously destroyed the structure for grain trading in Ukraine. You remember that the next day, Russia launched another terrorist attack on the southern regions of Ukraine, trying (partially succeeded) to completely destroy granaries, port infrastructure for loading grain, logistics routes for delivering grain to loading ports


Those. there are no problems with freight and insurance, everything is simpler here - Russia is simply afraid to do this, because. the risk of destruction of the Russian Black Sea Fleet is very high!

The increases in insurance costs and freight rates seem, to a degree, a natural response, or maybe an unnatural one, to the ongoing tension, though how exactly the tension translates to these costs is something a bit elusive. And yes, three shipowners have stopped carrying Russian grain, but are there more? Could be, or maybe not...

There seems to be a broader picture here that is not fully captured or maybe partially captured. The opaque ownership structure, sanctions, and global politics all seem to intertwine, or not intertwine, or only slightly intertwine, in ways that are not completely clear. But the situation is indeed something to keep an eye on, or perhaps two eyes, or maybe just glance occasionally...

The only difference is that rather than allowing the American treasury department to print unlimited amount of banknotes, the BRICS nations would be doing that by themselves. The member nations of BRICS (India, Brazil, Russia, China and South Africa) do have their own currencies and in case of some of these nations, the currencies are looking very weak. We don't know exactly what will be the weightage assigned to each of these national currencies. Also, dozens of nations have applied to join the BRICS bloc. Will their national currencies be added to the mix?

Russian terrorism, as expected, has done what is known as "shooting itself in the foot" ....

Russia's grain export problems began after the Ukrainian attack on Novorossiysk.
Russian grain exporters are facing increasing difficulties in exporting their products to world markets amid an escalating situation in the Black Sea, where the Russian military attacked Ukrainian ports on the Danube and the AFU responded with an attack on Novorossiysk.
Grain traders, ocean carriers and insurers are increasingly wary of dealing with Russian counterparties and have sharply increased freight rates for them, as well as insurance fees, Reuters reported, citing sources in shipping and trading companies.

Insurance for grain carriers bound for Novorossiysk and Taman, which account for 70% of Russia's grain exports, costs tens of thousands of dollars more per day than for similar ships bound for Romania or Bulgaria, the agency's sources said.
And before the Kremlin pulled out of the grain deal, such insurance required paying a "risk premium" of about $10,000 a day. But after the Ukrainian strikes, the stakes have risen even higher, Reuters sources said.
The escalation in the Black Sea will hit Russian exports as shipping companies are already wary of sending their ships to Russian ports, especially newer, larger vessels, according to two of the agency's interlocutors.

After pulling out of the grain deal, Russia said it would consider any merchant ships entering Ukraine a legitimate military target. Kiev responded with a similar warning and launched maritime drone strikes against ships near Novorossiysk.
On the night of August 4, the large military landing ship Olenegorsk Miner was damaged, the fourth BDC to come under Ukrainian attack since the start of the war. On the night of August 5, a kamikaze drone attacked the tanker Sig near Kerch.

This further increases the risks for shipowners, at least three of whom have already stopped carrying Russian grain, while others must constantly calculate the risks of sanctions. This is not easy, given that the ownership structure of ports in Russia is opaque and many fear that their ultimate owners could be sub-sanctioned individuals, said Mike Salthouse, head of external affairs at insurer North Standard.

Even refueling at a Russian port could turn out to be a sanctions violation, another senior industry executive said. "What kind of normal trade are we talking about?" - He lamented.
Last year, Russia exported a record 60 million tons of grain with the help of major Western traders Cargill, Louis Dreyfus and Viterra. But all of them announced their withdrawal from the Russian market on July 1.
https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2023/08/08/u-rossii-nachalis-problemi-s-eksportom-zerna-posle-udarov-ukraini-po-novorossiisku-a51405

Definitely and the diversity of currencies will give countries more opportunities to diversify their exchanges as well, since the BRICS countries, for example, will propose to other countries outside the BRICS to use the new currency in their exchanges with them, which will strengthen their position.
I do not like the idea that the new world should get rid of the dollar, because it is not in the interest of the global economy that a huge economy like the United States be unfairly affected. The impact of this damage on the global economy cannot be expected or its repercussions expected.

Definitely but the point is that BRICS is going to create an alternative to dollar that doesn't have the same problems so it doesn't have to get rid of the dollar. But since BRICS currency won't be used as a weapon like the dollar, next time US wants to steal some countries' billions of dollars, they will immediately switch to the alternative or the countries think ahead and diversify first so that US doesn't have as much money to steal.
It is also the next step in solidifying the New World Order, a multipolar world.

Try to be honest and not a pusillanimous, and cite here MY sentence from my reply where I wrote "sanctions will in no way, ever affect the EU" ?

I'll answer right away - you're shitting your pants in front of everyone again - in the mentioned topics it was a question:
1. about a fake indicator of a supposedly huge wave of bankruptcies in Germany. Which in fact did not happen, and the statistics does not differ from the statistics for previous years, in stable times.
2. electricity - someone squealed that the EU will freeze, electricity will never be cheap and not everyone can buy it ) Which was also disproved by original data from Germany.

I'm waiting for another nonsense and attempts to manipulate information from you! As I understand it, you will try to pull this evidence of the absence of bankruptcies and minor problems of increasing the cost of electricity (temporary) as the words that "sanctions will not harm Europe"? Are you serious ?
You are really fun to read  

We do not cancel the idea that the dollar system is going through successive crises and the global economy is not in the best condition with the dollar. The crisis appears on the surface when there is a direct confrontation between the United States and other parties. Those parties will try to use the dollar as a pressure card, especially since this was within the framework of an alliance. I mean, if the BRICS countries find a formula to completely get rid of the dollar (not currently possible), this will have a direct impact on the United States, whether in its financial or economic policies.
Let's not get ahead of ourselves. Currently, the dollar cannot be dispensed with by all standards. At the same time, it cannot be denied that there is a desire on the part of many countries to disengage the dollar from the United States.

The economy of war, according to calculations in Russia, for ordinary citizens, turns out to be a profitable event, but there are nuances
The salary of a terrorist in the Russian army, who kills Ukrainian citizens in Ukraine, according to promises, is from 100,000 to 250,000 rubles. Well, for now, he, a terrorist from Russia, is alive. And if senior officers don't steal money. Sometimes they don't steal

But there is an interesting, profitable business model. There are absolutely verifiable numbers. We take a Russian man, an average Russian, 35 years old. The question is - how much will he have time to earn (optimistically) before retirement age (65 years)? The calculation shows that in 30 years, the average resident of Russia can earn:
If he is a resident of St. Petersburg, then about 10 million rubles
If he is a resident of the Bryansk region, then about 6 million rubles
If he is a resident of Ossetia or Buryatia, then about 5 million rubles

But if he goes to war, goes to kill citizens of Ukraine, there will be income: salaries for some time while he is alive, and the most important thing here is that after his death in Ukraine, his family will receive .... 12,500,000 rubles one-time, in one payment!
Those. for a typical Russian wife, it is beneficial to send her husband to war and is guaranteed to get a double profit:
- plus 12.500.000 rubles
- minus one mouth in the family

PS. True, they write that there are nuances. Money is credited .. but not to everyone .... and not always ... But suddenly you are lucky and they will pay!? This means that all problems will be solved immediately! War, who benefits - that's the answer!

That's easy! Every second post of yours: particularly I can remember the discussion regarding huge energy bills and the wave of bankruptcies in Germany (you can find that discussion in Economy section) where in every post you denied any effect on the West caused by the sanctions. According to you, the West was flourishing and Russia was suffering.    


Nobody cares what you predict or to what conclusions you have arrived after listening to Putin or whoever else. You just have to provide the sources to prove it happened in real life not in your imagination. You claimed that Ukraine is preventing Russia from going further West and/or attacking other countries. I asked for a proof. You came up with two paragraphs of gibberish and speculations with no links to your sources. If you fail to provide the sources the credibility of your posts equals ZERO.

First of all when about half the world is in an alliance with a lot more are begging to be allowed to join this alliance, that is not called "isolation from the world" that is more like isolating a few non-BRICS members from the rest of the world!
Secondly why abolish dollar? US is still a huge "country" with 300+ million customers and many colonies that are ripe as export destinations. Dollar will continue to be used but at a much smaller scale and at much lower exchange rates in the future but it won't be abolished.

Two things you need to know: this has nothing to do with Russia alone and this is not new.
The dedollarisation trend has been going on for many years. As the stats show a couple of decades ago US dollar was used by more than 90% of the world for their international trades and today that percentage is closer to 50% and decreasing fast.

Basically the day US decided to use this opportunity to turn dollar into a weapon and hurt friend and foe alike was the day the world started thinking about alternatives and moved on from dollar, slowly but surely. BRICS is one of the attempts in the direction of taking that weapon out of US hands and make it ineffective.

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P.S. The situation in Syria that I explained in the previous page is getting more serious. There is a good chance that US and its proxies are going to attack Lebanon and Syria in the near future considering that US and subsequently others have told their citizens to leave the country and have moved more forces into the bases they illegally occupy in Syria.
There is also an increased movement of terrorist groups with ties to United States in the region all moving towards the Western borders.

These losers already tried:
- switch to settlements in national currencies. As a result, Russian accounts are bombarded with rupees and yuan, but it is impossible to buy something sensible and really necessary with them.
- no one takes rubles, or they took them in extremely limited volumes - there is simply nothing to buy with them.
- the idea of a gold-backed currency has a couple of problems that no one can solve:
1. Uneven reserves and opportunities for the accumulation of gold among countries.
2. Unprovable real gold reserves that should "secure" some fabulous new currency. China has generally classified its gold reserves since the beginning of 2000, the rest, if not classified, then the indicators are only in words ...

The resource provision of currency in the modern world is a very specific decision.

PS And imagine - if someone in the coming years develops a technology for extracting gold from ocean water? And there are about 20 million tons of gold. For comparison, today in the history of mankind, about 244 thousand tons have been mined...

I recently read information on the BitcoinTalk forum that the BRICS countries are planning to create a new international currency backed by gold.  I also read that the Russian Federation is planning to carry out financial actions related to the creation of this new international currency (an alternative to the US dollar). 

I tried to understand what this information means?  What could be the interests of Russia and the BRICS countries here? 

In Russia, most of the gold and foreign exchange reserves are gold bars.  Russia has been buying gold very actively over the past decade.  In addition, the Russian Federation is a gold mining country.  But all Russian gold fell under international economic sanctions. 

Therefore, an idea arose - to create a new international currency and use Russian gold for reservation.  I'm not sure about the reality of this idea.  The BRICS countries are very different countries in cultural, mental and technological terms. 

It will be difficult for them to join forces to create a new currency, an alternative to the US currency.

You need to think not about the fact that my eyes opened, but about the fact that your brain did not turn on
To begin with, point me to at least one of my posts where I wrote that the West will not feel negative consequences for itself as a result of the imposition of sanctions? If you don’t provide it, you are once again a simple, cheap, primitive liar

Even at the beginning of the introduction of sanctions, I wrote:
- Sanctions will not have an immediate effect, but in the future they will break the back of the Russian economy.
- Sanctions are a "double-edged sword". And it will be difficult for the West to introduce them for some time. At a minimum, they will be forced to rebuild some markets of their economy, which were heavily tied to Russian resources. Russia is the rest of the country and has a predominantly resource-based economy, but since the times of the USSR it has managed to “attach” some sectors of the Western economy to Russian resources. Breaking these bonds will be tricky. But well done to the West, they were not afraid and broke these schemes. Now the problems are exclusively on the side of Russia

And the second part of the answer:
And if you listen to Russian state terrorists, they have been screaming for 2 years that "we want to return the Kremlin power, including the squares of the Warsaw Pact countries." Or did you not listen to the international criminal Putin? I also recommend listening to the hysterical chauvinist statements of the Russian Foreign Ministry in 2022 Here the other day, the Kremlin's miserable dwarf, came up with and voiced a new nonsense - they say the USSR gave Poland its territories, and, as it were, hinted that since the USSR gave it, then Russia can take away the gift ....
This is me about the fact that today it is Ukraine that successfully grinds the two-legged meat and iron of the "second army of the world" on its territory, stopping this brown stream, not letting it go to the west ...

Here, by the way, I can predict a little - in the near future, with sufficient probability, provocations will begin from Belarus, towards the Polish side, or towards the Baltic countries. Whether it will be PMC Wagner, or another crowd of "refugees" that Russia brings to itself from Asian countries and then transports to Belarus, I cannot predict. But these events are very likely.
Target ? The goal is simple - losing in the war to Ukraine, Russia needs to create a picture in which "great Russia" will lose not to Ukraine, but to NATO, for example. Poland is a member of NATO. And there will begin the next "horror stories" about the Kremlin clown, they say, nuclear ashes, and other nonsense. In a word - an attempt to avoid a miserable, shameful loss

We are currently living in a world based on alliances in almost all fields. BRICS is basically an economic alliance whose first goal was to facilitate exchanges between its member countries. It was not possible to cancel this alliance according to geopolitical variables, nor to hold one of its members accountable according to his position in international politics, and I mean here Russia, especially since the alliance includes China (in a trade war with the United States for years) and India (in an indirect war against The United States, which supports its regional enemy Pakistan), and Brazil (which adopts open economic policies contrary to the influence of the dollar) and the desire of other countries to join this alliance, who all want liberation from the authority of the United States that extends its influence (literally) on the global economy through policies She alone controls it.

The only question is why should the BRICS countries dirty themselves by associating with an international terrorist country, a country that always breaks all its promises?  India, China and Brazil know very well that Russia is a country whose word and promises are worthless. Moreover, the whole "greatness of Russia" is a complete fake ! Russia has nothing really competitive - no economy, no military-industrial complex, no technology - only FEIKES and fairy tales drawn as "documentary cartoon", which the Kremlin criminals indulge themselves in.
I don't think countries like India and China are exactly SUPPORTING Russia. From the indicators I see, they just "have" Russia for their own benefit "here and now". If India is just a reasonable country, China needs Russia to be extremely weakened economically and militarily. China considers Russia its resource (minerals, land, territories) appendage.

PS I'll also add - given what China is doing with BRICS now, I'd rename BRICS to B-RISC = Big Risc

I find that this is a sound procedure, given that the BRICS alliance cannot isolate itself from the global situation of the member countries, and because if it really intends to study the abolition of the dollar, then it must work to get rid of its dollar reserves first. Currently, there is no way to help Russia bypass international sanctions except by providing support behind the scenes, away from the eyes of international scrutiny. The BRICS alliance certainly helps Russia, but it should not announce this publicly and maintain its global position as an economic entity contributing to the global economy.

Oh man, so you finally admit the West is going to feel the consequences of the sanctions they introduced? And there's going to be a drop in the standard of living? Blind man starting to see?  

Anyway, you mentioned that Ukraine is not letting Russia go further? Can you provide any source to support your claim? Or is the source SOMA (straight outta my ass) as always?  

Any global war, always a huge problem for the economy, both the country of the aggressor, and the country - victims of aggression, as well as the entire world economy !
True there is one nuance..... If the countries of the developed west managed to achieve a high standard of living, they are used to it, and they do not really want to sharply reduce their standard of living, the aggressor country is mostly inhabited by a poor population, which has never seen and lived with a high standard of living. And nothing has changed for them except that some quality products have disappeared, and they are periodically caught and sent like slaves to die for some morbid fantasies of their ruler.

In sum, we have: developed countries are trying to look for some "simple way" to preserve their welfare, without trying to look deeply into the essence of what is happening, Ukraine has to restrain Rashism at the immeasurable cost of lives of its citizens, not letting it go further (and they are already openly voicing these plans), carriers of Rashism, having nothing in their lives, easily succumb to propaganda, and go to "defeat the decaying West". All this leads to world economic, and not only economic, problems.

PS I recommend, if you have acquaintances in Russia, to ask them the question "what are you fighting for", and before you hear the answer, invite a psychiatrist, he will explain to you what is going on in their heads ).

I think the race among countries to acquire the new and the best cutting edge technologies in warfare has always been going on quietly and most times majorly overlooked. But with the launch of the war in Ukraine, tensions are mounting all over and funds that was supposed to have gone towards something productive and beneficial for the general populace has been sunk into the military.
Admittedly, wars and chaos would drastically increase the tensions that’s already heightened and cause nations to increase their military budget to help acquire new weapons of mass destruction and warfare. Of course, gun runners would also have fat pockets at the height of any war.