Topic: The impact of Russian and Ukrain war on world economy - page 13. (Read 13245 times)

Dear Sithara007 - to clarify, no problem !
1. Name me the countries that now buy back almost 90% of Urals oil ?
2. Public information often does not coincide with closed information - I mean agreements.
3. Yes, officially the discounts have fallen. Even out of respect for you - AGREE But I will add - Russia does not get 50% of the oil revenues due to "friendly schemes" of both China and India. And it does not get 60 US DOLLARS per barrel, but a bunch of Indian or Chinese currency. Do you understand the difference ? Russia's economy needs DOLLARS, it is dying and collapsing without them. You can't buy high technologies, critical raw materials and many other CRITICALLY important imported products with rupees and yuan.
By the way - would you care to find and publish - what are India's restrictions, "in a friendly manner", for Russia, for its import transactions in rupees with India ? Not quite clear ? Let me clarify - India has imposed, for Russia, restrictions on buying Indian products for rupees, for critical products, for Russia. And sells these groups of goods to Russia.... FOR DOLLARS And not for yuan. Only for dollars. Look it up, post it - let the picture be complete ?
Yes, and at the same time information about blocking Russia's funds for oil deals with India

To summarize: the price on paper, and the real sale price and REAL income from the transaction - for Russia, these are very different figures ! And you will easily see that if you stop reading only what you like and study the real situation

I bet he can't explain. DrBeer is living in an imaginary world of Ukrainian propaganda. A world full of $30/barrel oil, Russia splitting into 5 separate states, Putin dying of cancer twice a day (every day), Ukraine getting Crimea and Donbass back this year, every single country in the world joining NATO, Ukraine defeating Russia and similar ridiculous stuff.  

The price of oil is going up, you can tell just by visiting your local gas station. Ruble is going down, that's a fact too. Mostly due to Prigozhin's mutiny. Prigozhin is a mercenary, so there's big chance he got paid to do it by some other "customer" if you know what I mean. Anyway, I think this effect is temporary and ruble will recover soon-ish. Prigozhin is already back in Putin's lap, planning some offensive from Belarus or whatever.  

Care to explain this?

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/russian-oil-discount-shrinks-87-to-4/barrel-as-sellers-game-shipping-insurance-to-skirt-g7-price-cap/articleshow/101619068.cms?from=mdr

As per Indian sources, the discount on Russian crude has decreased to almost nothing. Average discounts are now around $4 per barrel, compared to sharp markdowns of $25 to $30 per barrel that the Indian traders enjoyed a few months ago.

Also, this:

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/13/energy/russian-oil-price-cap-breached/index.html

The price of Urals crude has gone past $60 per barrel, which was the limit set by Western countries while implementing their price cap. And I think it will go up even further, as the Brent crude prices have gone past $80 per barrel. In the market there is a shortage of supply as a result of production cuts from Russia and Saudi Arabia.

For what I write below, I apologize in advance, it will be a bit emotional..... But I see this war from the Ukrainian side.
Tell me - why are you afraid to call the situation as it is - a terrorist mass attack on Ukraine by Russia, with open and officially declared goals of the aggressor country - to destroy the population and the country itself?

Regarding the dead children and the "conflict". I apologize in advance for this, it will be a very unpleasant example. I.e. in your concept, if a homicidal maniac attacks your mother, abuses her and tries to kill her, in court he can say - "No, well, no murder, no specific goals, it's just a conflict we had. Moreover, everything is not unambiguous, and in general it was she who provoked me, because she wanted to attack me, I was just defending myself. This is exactly the position you are now taking towards the situation in Ukraine... No offense, but I have already seen so much grief, death and destroyed cities that I am simply out of balance with the word "conflict", under which for some reason they are trying to hide genocide, terrorism, mass murder, violence, looting.... Tell me - are you afraid of the truth? 

And back to your phrase - "As agriculture in Ukraine came to a halt because of the war, many parts of the world suffered wheat starvation." I.e. hundreds of thousands of people killed, millions of refugees, hundreds of destroyed cities - this is such...not interesting, but the fact that someone does not receive grain, that is a problem ? Let me make it clear - everything in our lives is interconnected. And if you don't call a murderer a murderer, call a war a conflict and not a war, worry about some dubious problems, turning a blind eye to real crimes - you breed, support those murderers, and deprive those "starving people" of grain.



There are reasons for everything that happens. Both the growth of Brand oil and the fall of the ruble
There is no reason to talk about Urals trade at 60 dollars with India, when settlements are made with discounts, in rupees and in addition a significant part of the money from these supplies is simply frozen ! Don't hesitate to read Russian news, even there they write about "unfriendly behavior of Indian partners"

I noticed two things in the last few months. First of all, the price of Brent crude has rocketed past $80 per barrel, and this level was achieved after many months. The supply cuts announced and implemented by Russia and Saudi Arabia seems to be having the desired impact on the market. Urals crude is trading at close to $60 per barrel, as per Indian importers. Including freight and insurance, EXW cost is around $80 per barrel (still around $10 per barrel cheaper than Saudi crude). Second thing is that the RUR has been devalued at an alarming rate. In 12 months, it has lost 50% of its value against the USD.

It is striking that when you describe the situation about the death of children in Ukraine, you do not indicate the real cause of their death and their perpetrators, but call what is happening a "conflict in Ukraine." The Russian army is attacking Ukraine with all its military might, trying to seize its territory. The length of active hostilities is more than 1,200 kilometers of the front, where tens of thousands of mines and shells explode every day. More than 90 percent of the entire Russian army is now on the territory of Ukraine, and it is Russian soldiers who are now killing civilians in Ukraine, including children, women and the elderly.

The Russians are also openly robbing Ukraine and its population, taking stolen grain and other agricultural products, as well as medical equipment from hospitals and absolutely everything that can be stolen and of any value into their territory. Well, what can you do, Russia is a nation of thieves, murderers and rapists. Therefore, in a civilized world, they should be feared.

Ukraine does not have conflicts with Russia, it is protected from attacks on its territory.

The current military aggression of Russia against Ukraine differs from previous wars in that, having no significant successes on the battlefield, the Russians seek to destroy cities and other settlements of Ukraine, infrastructure and its economy as much as possible, openly creating artificial environmental and man-made disasters that will inevitably negatively affect the global economy.

Now the Russian invaders continue to mine the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant, hoping to blackmail the world with a nuclear catastrophe or at least for some time to slow down the current offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which soon threatens to completely collapse the Russian front, especially in the southern direction. Only the government of Ukraine's maximum information about this to the international community prevented the Kremlin from committing this monstrous act of terrorism, since countries such as China, India and the United States made it clear to Putin that Russia would then face a rapid collapse on all fronts. But the situation around the occupied Zaporozhye nuclear power plant is still complicated, because this nuclear facility is still mined and under the control of Russian invaders.

I will be brief -

PS I forgot that I do not communicate with the two-legged stools, sorry for the unnecessary contact, it will not happen again.
And you'll find the video, you're interested, plus you know what it was. In the meantime, I recommend that you watch more video of how the brave terrorist Russian troops, with joy and laughter, are shooting simultaneously in the direction of the AFU and Donetsk, with shrieks - "let's do it" to everyone!
Of course you can cowardly close your laptop after you start searching in YouTube "Russian troops simultaneously shelling the AFU and Donetsk", but you understand with at least one brain - your refusal to seek information will not change the reality
That's it, the dialogue is over with you - wasting time on you - the most stupid use of time

My little retarded friend DrBeer is hilarious. He didn't disappoint me this time too!


Well, if you make a statement you have to provide a source. Otherwise that's not a fact but a speculation. Is it clear?


No way, you're definitely retarded! If the Russian troops are INSIDE the powerplant who else can shell it? Imperial stormtroopers?   

If you have such a video do you mind providing a link for all to see? Oh wait, you definitely do! You never provide any proof/sources I'm kinda used to it. 


I'm not going to search for some video which probably doesn't exist as you saw it in your dream. Please provide the link or not spread this bullshit. 

Oh, hello microbrain carrier
1. what kind of links do you want? Where russian terrorists write "we booby-trapped the ZPP"? ? It seems about the micro-brain - I am optimistic about your abilities

2. About the report and the link - thanks for the laugh. What did you prove with this link? Does it say anywhere that the shelling was done by the AFU?
The Russian Federation is accustomed to creating beautiful shows - they shell themselves, film them, prepare "reporters" in advance, and then tell tales. This has already happened near Donetsk - there are many videos of them simultaneously firing MLRS in two directions - toward the AFU and toward... DONETSK  It happened many times in Donetsk, when they were shelling from one area of the city to another.

By the way, about the "shelling of the Zaporizhzhia NPP". - there is an excellent video - there a representative of terrorist Russia, showing allegedly shelling from the side of the AFU, ZES, comes up against the question - "and why the traces of arrivals, point to the direction from the side opposite to the location of the AFU?
On what the representative of the terrorist occupation regime, at first stumbles, and then gives the answer "Because the missile, before hitting the object does a turn of 180 degrees, therefore such are the traces"  

I'm sure you will not find this video only if you deliberately will not look ))
Go read the news from the fences

And what are your arguments? About the fact that the IAEA recorded external shelling of the Zaporizhzhya NPP? So the inhabitants of the occupied Donbass and other regions of Ukraine occupied by Russian invaders have long been convinced from their sad experience that Russia itself is shelling the territories it occupies. And what's new in this? Even recently, the head of Wagner PMC Prigozhin himself stated this, pointing out that Russia had already had enough of lying, and Ukraine was not going to attack Russia and did not shell the Donbass region, but defended itself from Russian soldiers.
 
But how to evaluate the fact of the mining of the Zaporizhzhya NPP recorded by the IAEA? After all, here it is no longer possible to say that the mining of the interior of the Zaporizhzhya NPP was carried out by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
https://www.epravda.com.ua/rus/news/2023/06/22/701462/
https://tsn.ua/ru/ato/zaporozhskaya-aes-zaminirovana-po-perimetru-i-vnutri-v-magate-soobschili-chto-s-prudom-2355487.html

And before the Zaporizhzhya NPP was captured by Russian terrorists, there were no security problems for the world from this nuclear power plant. Problems arise only when a Russian soldier sets foot on foreign territory.

I'm sorry everyone, but I don't find it very accurate to evaluate wars from an economic point of view. Thousands of children have died due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Syria and other parts of the world. Now we have to talk about keeping children alive. However, if I have to talk about the economic instability caused by the war, I think the biggest problem was observed in agricultural products. As agriculture in Ukraine came to a standstill due to the war, many parts of the world suffered from wheat-induced famine.

Firstly, you're missing source for this news yet again. Otherwise than that, what could be the reason to blow up the powerplant? It's being controlled by the Russians and there are cities occupied by the Russians not far away from it. Ukrainians have been shelling the powerplant for almost a year putting everyone around it at risk:


Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zaporizhzhia_Nuclear_Power_Plant

So, my little lying friend, you may lie all you like, nobody is taking you seriuosly. 

Tomorrow, or in the next few days, we are likely to witness a new "bloody show" by the Kremlin terrorist regime.
You probably all know that just recently, Russia committed a huge terrorist attack by blowing up the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power plant in the temporarily occupied territory of Ukraine. The consequences of this terrorist act are enormous - from the deaths of a huge number of Ukrainian civilians and economic damage, to environmental catastrophe. Losing the war, the Kremlin terrorist regime decided to commit another act of terrorism on an international scale.
As you know - in the spring of 2022, Russian terrorist troops seized the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. This is one of the largest nuclear power plants in Europe. Since May 2023, on the territory of ZNPP, not hiding much from the public, terrorists began to deliver explosives and to mine the ZNPP itself and the spent nuclear fuel storage facilities. At first, there were attempts at direct pressure on the international community, threats of "we cannot guarantee safety, stop helping Ukraine, otherwise anything can happen at ZNPP.

This attempt failed. The Kremlin decided to go "va-bank" and put on a show - Ukrainian troops shelling the Russian nuclear power plant with American weapons. So far, there is no exact data on how "qualitatively" the ZNPP is mined, but at least there is confirmed data on the mining of general purpose buildings and the waste storage facility. In order to fully blow up a nuclear power plant it is necessary to hit it either with extremely powerful means (at the level of a nuclear strike) or to carry out an INTENSE massive bombing of all buildings, including reactors. This is conditioned by the fact that all NPPs are built with an enormous safety margin and are designed for possible negative developments, including terrorist attacks and nuclear war. This was laid during the Soviet times, by the way, as well as the hydropower plant, which confirms that the hydropower plant was undermined from the inside by deep and massive mines by terrorist invaders, because such structures can withstand an ordinary missile strike.

Considering the winds in the next few days, in case of an explosion and formation of a cloud of radioactive dust, the southern regions of Ukraine, including the temporarily occupied territories, the territory of the temporarily occupied Crimea, as well as the Krasnodar and Rostov regions of Russia itself will suffer. But the Kremlin maniac doesn't care about his citizens, he needs to try to intimidate the world...
We are watching the development of the situation...

PS I hope everyone understands that the Kremlin regime has no right to exist, and there can be no negotiations or agreements with such terrorists.

Since June 4, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have stepped up their offensive operations and are attacking the Russians along the entire front with a length of more than a thousand kilometers. The task is not only to liberate the territories previously captured by the invaders, but also to destroy the enemy’s manpower and equipment as much as possible. During the offensive, the Russians are forced to bring artillery and other firing equipment closer to the front, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine have succeeded in counter-battery combat with the help of Western equipment. If, as of June 4, 3,555 enemy artillery systems were destroyed, then over the past month there have already been 4,252 of them, that is, 697 pieces of artillery were destroyed.
Also destroyed were 4,059 tanks (222 in the last month), 7,908 armored vehicles (386 in the last month), 647 MLRS (64 in the last month), 394 air defense systems (50 in the last month) and other equipment.

As for the losses of Russians in manpower, according to the Russian telegram channel "General SVR", which lay on Putin's table, irretrievable losses (that is, only those killed and missing on the Ukrainian front) as of July 3 are 307,703 people . Of these, 233,573 are servicemen of the regular army and 74,130 are from various PMCs. If you multiply this figure by three, you get about a million more wounded Russians. And these are losses for Putin's imperial ambitions?

Any big wars have a sharply negative impact on the world economy. After all, war is the total destruction of material infrastructure and human resources. Especially if such a war broke out in the center of Europe. Of course, the direct participants in this war, Russia and Ukraine, will suffer first of all. But if in Ukraine there is simply no other worthy choice but to protect its territorial integrity, then Russia, as an aggressor, has chosen a very stupid and disastrous position for it in the 21st century.
As Germany eventually began to condemn the fascism born on its territory, so the Russians have yet to do the same with their current rashism.

While Russia is trying in vain to somehow manipulate the OIL market, gas continues to fall in price. Moreover, the word "fall" conveys the real picture of the price. From the peak in August 2022 to May 2023, the price actually fell 4 times. At the same time, it continues to decrease systematically. Although gas, until recently, was the most significant lever of pressure on the EU, where everyone was supposed to simply "freeze to death without Russian gas." This blackmail and threats not only did not work, moreover, it gave the opposite result. And now the EU economy buys gas from adequate suppliers, at adequate prices, which is BENEFICIAL for the EU economy and its residents. But it is diametrically opposite - it is not beneficial for Russia. But who will ask her and who is interested in her in the modern world!?

Oil. Attempts at Russian manipulation sometimes give results, but ... they do not change the market globally. Manipulation cannot withstand the real market. The gas example showed this. And the growing problems of the Chinese economy indicate that the demand for oil will not grow in the coming years. Plus - new players appear on the oil market, ready to "work with their elbows for a place in the sun"

I think this is a complex problem that requires careful analysis and management. My view is that another factor contributing to the increase in inflation is the increased demand for goods and services as the economy begins to reopen and recover. This increased demand can create a temporary imbalance between supply and demand. This can be suppressed if geopolitical conditions improve and conditions return to normal, even though it takes a long process so that investors return home and carry out their activities again, wherever that may be.

For starters - no aggression, it's just that you probably took this offer very close, and if this is aggression for you - I apologize!

Ok, let's go the other way. Why I wrote "Your favorite RT" is for a simple reason.
It was you who accused me of reading a "CIA-related" propaganda site
"Why do you keep quoting moscowtimes.ru? It's a CIA-linked propaganda site." Are these YOUR WORDS? About propaganda, and the CIA?

By the way, the second part of your answer about Bellingcat is also your fantasy, because According to "Bellingcat is an online publication founded on July 14, 2014 by British citizen journalist and blogger Eliot Higgins and is engaged in investigative journalism about war zones using the method of analyzing data from open sources." Where is the "MI-6/CIA puppet" or "why can't I see the resources?" as you say These are your speculations. I regularly read their investigations, and I will tell you, at least in Ukraine - they are extremely close to reality and I do not see any noticeable attempts to distort reality! Those. if reality without manipulation is an MI6/CIA puppet?

From the experience of my communication, in 99% of cases such arguments are given by residents of Russia when they find themselves in a "difficult situation" in dialogues, and they have no arguments, facts, logical explanations. Everything goes to the level of "it's all a US conspiracy"

I also gave RT as a great example of what a truly PROPAGANDISM CHANNEL is.
And the fact that you do not see the source - if you really want the truth - we can INDEPENDENTLY find all the information - it's all in open sources! Yes, I affirm in advance that in Russia all the media today are controlled by the state, and they all work according to the same "manual". All media that do not support 101% of the state and power have ceased to exist a long time ago ... You can also check and see for yourself.

PS Yes, I am a citizen of Ukraine. Russian by nationality, born in the territory of modern Russia, and having many relatives in Russia, which means I have information from real residents of Russia.

While some are self-hypnotic and trying to dream from alternate universes, the reality is this:

A few excerpts from the information of the last days:
- Ordinary residents of Russia: "-Now I contacted relatives, friends in Energodar (Zaporozhye NPP). They also announced an evacuation there, but warned that there would not be enough transport for everyone, so only activists who collaborated with the new government are guaranteed to leave ...". Just remember this post
- The State Duma urged to oblige the Russians to protect the borders from Ukrainian sabotage. The country does not have opportunities, "as in the Soviet Union," so you need to defend yourself with "people's squads," said Andrei Kartapolov, head of the defense committee.
- Parades on May 9 are canceled all over Russia. In Moscow, it will pass without aviation and in a "short version" - the paranoid bunker is afraid that his soldiers will destroy him. Well, to show all the parade units "having no analogues" will not work physically - most of them were simply destroyed in Ukraine by the forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine!
“The deadlines are not met.” The government recognized the fiasco with the replacement of foreign software at power plants. If you fulfill the presidential decree on the complete transition to domestic software, there will be a shortage of electricity in Russia, the Ministry of Energy found out ))
- The last clients of Gazprom in Eastern Europe have agreed to buy Azerbaijani gas. Hungary and Slovakia, which are 85% and 30% dependent on Gazprom, will receive gas from Azerbaijan this year.


Well, the "heroism of the Russian army" - today they again showed it in all its "glory". Today at 4 am, Ukraine was subjected to another rocket attack. The blows were inflicted exclusively on peaceful cities. 90% of the missiles successfully shot down Ukrainian air defenses. 2 missiles hit civilian targets in the city of Uman. Civil Warehouses, and Multi-Family Residential Building. At 4 am, when people are SLEEPING, to a PEACEFUL home. Many people died, including small children. This is "Russian Heroism" ...