Topic: The impact of Russian and Ukrain war on world economy - page 12. (Read 13245 times)

By launching the biggest bloody and predatory war in Europe in over 70 years, Putin's regime in Russia has dramatically spurred an arms race around the world. Instead of investing material resources in ensuring the development of new technologies that will contribute to more comfortable conditions for human life, the development of science, further space exploration, now many states are creating or acquiring the most deadly murder weapons that can protect, if necessary, the country from such bloody regimes. Of course, this is very sad.

The impact that wars and conflicts can have on the world economy is quite worrying. .. War has a devastating effect on the economic and financial stability of the countries involved. The cutting off of oil supplies to the euro by Russia, as well as the scarcity of other essential resources and products due to conflicts, can lead to a number of problems, including significant disruption in production and trade, which could lead to a decline in economic activity. and ultimately to a recession. Unemployment could rise as companies struggle to stay afloat and investors are reluctant to make new investments in a climate of uncertainty.

From another point Financial markets can also be affected by the economic instability caused by the war. .. Uncertainty and risk can lead to increased volatility in stock markets and currencies, which could have a negative impact on investors and financial institutions. These scenarios can be devastating for people and me. A recommendation to combat and endure this chaos is to have a capital saved in gold.

A little positive from the "brothers in the fight against the dollar"

BRICS bank refused to invest in Russia due to sanctions
The New Development Bank (NDB), created by the BRICS countries to finance investment projects and has issued $30 billion in loans over 7 years, will not invest in Russia. This was announced on Wednesday by the head of the bank, Dilma Rousseff, in 2011-2016. served as President of Brazil.

According to Rouseff, the bank, which was created with Russian funds, fully complies with international sanctions and therefore does not consider new projects in the Russian Federation. Rousseff also called "baseless" suggestions that the bank could continue to work with Moscow.

Established in 2015, NDB received $10 billion from the founding countries - Russia, China, India, Brazil and South Africa - and over 8 years of operation has increased its loan portfolio by more than 30 times. But the war in Ukraine and the subsequent sanctions against the Russian Federation hit the bank. Almost two-thirds of the funds raised by the bank were US dollars. And it turned out to be difficult to refinance these loans: Russia's participation in the bank's capital (with a 20% share) made it "toxic" in the eyes of investors and closed the doors to capital markets.

Yes, currently in Russia there is a depreciation of the Russian ruble against the US dollar.  Inflation is also on the rise. 

Today I listened to the program of the economist Potapenko, and he predicted a 20 percent increase in food prices.  It's a lot. 

The government is trying to fight inflation with different methods.  In particular, the sale of assets from gold and foreign exchange reserves (gold and Chinese yuan) is carried out.  In addition, the Central Bank raises the discount rate (refinancing rate).  This is done in order to prevent the fall of the ruble against the US dollar to 100 rubles per 1 US dollar and below. 

At the same time, the sale of gold and Chinese yuan from state reserves worsens the financial stability of the state.  And the increase in the discount rate of the Central Bank has a negative impact on the development of industry and agriculture.

the causes of inflation in Venezuela have slightly different causes. The reasons why Russia turned out to be a "colossus on clay feet" - in total corruption, lies, theft and the habit of creating a fairy tale for the masses, taking their eyes off reality. As the whole world has already become convinced - Russia in most areas, which they proudly and constantly called "unparalleled", turned out to be nothing, a fake ... The "second army of the world", armed with "technologies unavailable to the West" - incurs indescribable losses against the AFU, all their "advantages" are reduced only to multiple "meat attacks", when thousands and tens of thousands throw their citizens, on the fortifications of the AFU. The economy - turned out to be the same "bubble" - while oil still somehow fuels the economy, and the stream of money, which used to be a huge flow, is decreasing every day. And "Russia's friends" are simply using it to the fullest, "screwing" it at every turn....
The power and security of the country - also turned out to be a fake, after the Kremlin PMC Wagner, easily and effortlessly destroyed the resistance of the SECOND ARMY of the world, on the territory of Russia, captured in 12 hours 2 major cities in the east, and was going to take Moscow. At the same time, the entire top brass fled from Moscow, leaving a "wet trail" behind them

         What happens? Is the Russian ruble now in the dustbin of history? Has it become worse than the Indian rupee? Is that how it works or am I missing something? If so, then I'm not surprised at all, because. this is what it all came down to. Managers in the Russian Federation are incompetent and do not understand what they are doing. Came to power in the most disgusting ways that can only be. Here is the result.
         Now I understand that no alliances will help Russia. All this is in the past. It is sad to realize this, but such is the current reality. Expect complete isolation from the world and hyperinflation, as happened not so long ago in Venezuela.

Unfortunately, some of the representatives of African states recently visited Kiev only to try to convince Ukraine not to resist Russian aggression and did not indicate the reason for the current difficult food situation on their continent, namely, Russia's attempt to destroy the neighboring state of Ukraine. They did not condemn Russia's act of aggression, and therefore their visits first to Ukraine and then to Russia did not lead to anything. Now they will be able to fully feel in their countries their passivity in the international arena.

I'll elaborate a bit. Indian rupee, can be used in localized transactions, with other countries. But there are conditions:
- India must maintain the liquidity of its currency. This means that the country that will receive the rupees must receive them in full according to the treaties and be able to freely dispose of them - both to buy any goods in India and convert them into any currency freely. Not like India did with Russia
- Nobody really needs the ruble, because you can't buy anything with it. And it is unprofitable and unprofitable to store this paper trash.

        Let them throw tomatoes at me, but I will say the following. I completely agree with you that the Russian ruble and the Indian rupee are not needed by anyone, except for the internal population of these countries. There is an equivalent around the world - the US dollar. It is used to pay for goods and services. Therefore, I see no reason to create various alliances after the main coalitions were formed many years ago.
       Of course, such attempts were made, but they did not lead to anything and are already falling apart because of their senselessness. Why am I doing this? Also, like you, it would be interesting to know what transactions are carried out in those national currencies that I mentioned at the very beginning.

In my opinion, there is nothing to brag about in this situation. According to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Russia has already lost more than 237,000 of its soldiers in Ukraine, who, with weapons in their hands, came to conquer the neighboring state and kill Ukrainians. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, which is reported to Putin weekly, irretrievable losses have already exceeded 300,000. If we take into account the generally accepted statistics that there are usually three times more wounded than those killed, then Russia has already lost more than a million of its soldiers in Ukraine. And this is for the sake of the imperial ambitions of Putin, who in the 21st century decided to prove himself a great conqueror of neighboring states?

But if the Russians have not yet completely drunk their brains away, then sooner or later the instinct of self-preservation must turn on. Under pain of criminal liability, they are now forbidden to ask direct and uncomfortable questions to their rulers about this war. This allegedly discredits their army. But the obvious military defeat in Ukraine is sobering for many, and the recent riot of the Wagnerites is only the first bell in this direction. Putin's throne is already wobbly.

US-Russia conflict could enter a new phase very soon in the coming days or weeks but in a different battlefield in Syria.

As you may know US is illegally occupying Syria, more specifically the oil rich regions to steal Syrian energy; while both Iran and Russia are in Syria with the direct invitation of the country to help fight the US backed terrorists.

Recently US has been activating its terror cells inside Syria (more specifically the Takfiri terrorists in north and north-west Syria + separatists/terrorists in eastern Syria) while moving in more forces to their own illegal bases. There is also talks of air defense being sold to terrorist militia in the separatists occupied Northern Iraq (Kurdistan region).
Meanwhile there has been some "face off" between Russian air-force and USAF where they just put on a show for each other! as armed forces are increasing there with increasing tensions.
Such tensions on a smaller scale are not unusual but the other side is usually the resistance against illegal occupation and they end it very quickly using Shock and Awe. Like last month where USAF bombed one of their weapons storages so they retaliated by bombing 5-6 US bases in the region with over a hundred missiles, rockets, shells and loitering munitions.

The economic significance of this is on energy. With the tensions that US is increasing and as they keep destabilizing the most oil rich region, specially if Russia is pulled into the conflict and continues its air attacks against terrorist positions (or rather increases them) while giving air support to the resistance, it could free them up to focus on US occupiers.
As I said above this could prevent US from stealing Syrian energy that includes between 60k to 100k barrels of oil per day.  In today's oil market this amount going back to the energy starved Syria in addition to the conflict in the most oil rich region could significantly increase the oil price, could be even above $100.

Nothing is certain though, we have to wait and see what the next move is and what the scale of the upcoming conflicts are going to be like. It could be from small skirmishes that end abruptly with another Shock and Awe so no major effect on energy prices to a larger conflict that starts in both Syria and Iraq and ends up in the Persian Gulf specially since recently US announced sending some toy aircraft (ie. F-16 fighter jets) to The Persian Gulf where ~20 million barrels of oil pass every day.

Which dollar you're talking about? The one which is barely avoiding default several times a year by increasing debt ceiling by many trillions?


That's not even a real currency anymore just some Monopoly money! 

You have to understand one thing: even if ruble goes down to zero, the war WILL NOT STOP. Russia is a self-sufficient country, Putin is paying his tank factory workers in rubles. People in Russia are buying groceries in rubles. They are paying for utilities in rubles. Sanctions can't stop the war and can't overthrow Putin.

Dear Sithara007 ! I want to share information with you, and listen to your conclusions. As a person who does not deny logic, can you explain the following fact:
12.07.2023. The Central Bank recorded a collapse in the inflow of currency into Russia. The Russian economy has experienced a collapse in the inflow of foreign currency, according to quarterly statistics from the Central Bank of Russia.
In April-June, Russia received only $5.4 billion in balance of payments surplus - the difference between the main currency flows in and out of the country. Compared to the same period last year, the economy's notional foreign exchange gain collapsed 14 times, or by 93%, and if we compare it to the first quarter of this year, it almost tripled.

Provided that:
- oil and gas revenues of the currency are the MAIN ones for the budget of the terrorist country
- according to your statements - there are no discounts, there are rising prices, and increased consumption of oil from the terrorist country.

Now logically try to explain all three facts ?  I am very interested to know the logical chain - when the main direction of the economy that brings foreign currency is growing and increasing by all indicators, but in the end - BUSTING of foreign currency revenues. No, not a decrease, but exactly a BUST of foreign exchange earnings ! 

PMC "Wagner" is not a private company at all, but a state division of Russia, which is fully funded from the Russian state budget. After the spectacle with the Wagnerites' march on Moscow, Putin was forced to admit that only from May 2022 to May 2023, 86 billion rubles were allocated from the budget for the maintenance of Wagner PMC members and incentive payments, and another 110 billion rubles for insurance payments, that is, compensation for their death to the relatives of the murdered Wagnerites. This structure, under the guise of PMCs, was necessary in order to resolve Russia's issues abroad by military means, and so that Russia could not be directly accused of military operations in other countries. But the war in Ukraine did not go according to plan at all, and that is not why the help of this unit was needed.

It is argued that Prigozhin staged a march on Moscow to withdraw his PMC from the combat zone in Ukraine and thus save him from complete defeat, to which his unit was very close. Therefore, it is unlikely that the Wagnerites will still fight in Ukraine.

Which never happened!


Oh, I got it, it de-dollarisation!
So everyone is dumping the dollar for other currencies and this keeps going up because...the US is doomed!
Meanwhile, the Russian ruble and the Chinese yuan are going down because their economies are doing great!

There is one thing I don't get it
If sanctions don't work, if a depreciating currency like this one is good,

if natural resources are the most important thing in the world, why has Iran dropped 40 places in the GDP ranking to undeveloped Africa levels:


Might be a hint of what's coming for Russia?

We cannot pretend that nothing is being affected at the cause of this lingering war and this has already caused many economic distortions from international countries having ties with both Russia and Ukraine because they don't want to be one sided against the other, i remember the move by some African countries that they make attempts in approach the two parties on the issue and address them on how they could hold back the unity that has cooexisted before and live together in peace in other for them to have a restoration of many opportunities that have gone at the cause of the fight, many countries were already affected directly or indirectly.

While fans of fairy tales and conspiracy theories, believe in fairy tales of a strong ruble, and Russia sells gas and oil for rubles, a bit of reality

- Russia does not sell gas for rubles. And never has. Reasons 2:
1. the backward and degenerating Russian economy needs currency ! Only currency will allow to buy products more technological than Chinese nails, although the Russian economy is not able to produce nails either )
2. The scheme of selling "for rubles" is open and described by Russia itself. And it looks like this: The importer country transfers currency (euros/dollars) to a special account in a Russian bank. This bank sells the currency on the Moscow interbank currency exchange for rubles. The roubles received from the sale of currency are credited to the supplier's current account In short, a fairy tale for those who have no brains
3. And while the ruble exchange rate is going down..... 90.25 "strong rubles of the most powerful economy", for 1 dollar "nothing secured" 

Considering the outcome I don't think it was actually a "mutiny" to begin with
Russia armed Belarus with nukes then sent these mercenaries there with the nukes. Before this so called mutiny, Wagner was nearly 400 km away from Kyiv, now they are 80 km away from Kyiv and a stones throw from Poland ready to do another possible "mutiny"; maybe shoot something in those directions while Russia claims they have no "control" over them referring to their shenanigans...

As for Ruble, I don't think it has to do with the recent shenanigans since the long term trend looks normal to me. Like majority of fiat currencies it is losing its value. Back in 2021 1 Ruble was 0.013 USD and then 2022 occurred where Europeans started purchasing Russian energy using Ruble instead of dollar so it was strengthened. Now in 2023 it is going back to normal and 1 Ruble is 0.011 USD with a 15% dump.
Most fiats are like this. Yen from 0.0095 to 0.0072 (-24%), Pound from 1.40 to 1.30 (-7%), Euro from 1.20 to 1.12 (-6.6%), Rupee from 0.014 to 0.012 (-14%), ...
Specially since US started mass exporting its inflation by printing trillions of dollars in the past year while increasing interest rate to keep the dollar exchange rate high, such dumps hastened. In fact this is one of the main incentives for dedollarisation.

The war of Russia against Ukraine has been going on for the 507th day, that is, next month it will be a year and a half since Putin ordered the Russian army to attack Ukraine with all its forces from the east and south, as well as from the territory of Belarus from the north. For many Ukrainians, every day spent under shelling and bombing of the entire territory of Ukraine is of great importance.
The biggest and bloodiest war in Europe since the Second World War, unleashed by the Putin regime in Russia, continues. Every day, tens of thousands of mines and shells explode on the territory of Ukraine. Of course, this cannot but affect soil pollution and environmental degradation in the region. Polluted rains with heavy metals will fall both in Russia and in Europe, and maybe even further. Therefore, the economic situation in the world will worsen.

Indeed, the impact of the war between Russia and Ukraine which has been going on for almost 1 year has had a major impact on the world economy. Many countries in Europe have experienced food shortages as a result of Russia banning exports, especially since oil prices have soared. If the war is not finished soon, it is very likely that almost the entire world will experience an economic downturn.