Topic: The impact of Russian and Ukrain war on world economy - page 12. (Read 13460 times)

You need to think not about the fact that my eyes opened, but about the fact that your brain did not turn on
To begin with, point me to at least one of my posts where I wrote that the West will not feel negative consequences for itself as a result of the imposition of sanctions? If you don’t provide it, you are once again a simple, cheap, primitive liar

Even at the beginning of the introduction of sanctions, I wrote:
- Sanctions will not have an immediate effect, but in the future they will break the back of the Russian economy.
- Sanctions are a "double-edged sword". And it will be difficult for the West to introduce them for some time. At a minimum, they will be forced to rebuild some markets of their economy, which were heavily tied to Russian resources. Russia is the rest of the country and has a predominantly resource-based economy, but since the times of the USSR it has managed to “attach” some sectors of the Western economy to Russian resources. Breaking these bonds will be tricky. But well done to the West, they were not afraid and broke these schemes. Now the problems are exclusively on the side of Russia

And the second part of the answer:
And if you listen to Russian state terrorists, they have been screaming for 2 years that "we want to return the Kremlin power, including the squares of the Warsaw Pact countries." Or did you not listen to the international criminal Putin? I also recommend listening to the hysterical chauvinist statements of the Russian Foreign Ministry in 2022 Here the other day, the Kremlin's miserable dwarf, came up with and voiced a new nonsense - they say the USSR gave Poland its territories, and, as it were, hinted that since the USSR gave it, then Russia can take away the gift ....
This is me about the fact that today it is Ukraine that successfully grinds the two-legged meat and iron of the "second army of the world" on its territory, stopping this brown stream, not letting it go to the west ...

Here, by the way, I can predict a little - in the near future, with sufficient probability, provocations will begin from Belarus, towards the Polish side, or towards the Baltic countries. Whether it will be PMC Wagner, or another crowd of "refugees" that Russia brings to itself from Asian countries and then transports to Belarus, I cannot predict. But these events are very likely.
Target ? The goal is simple - losing in the war to Ukraine, Russia needs to create a picture in which "great Russia" will lose not to Ukraine, but to NATO, for example. Poland is a member of NATO. And there will begin the next "horror stories" about the Kremlin clown, they say, nuclear ashes, and other nonsense. In a word - an attempt to avoid a miserable, shameful loss

We are currently living in a world based on alliances in almost all fields. BRICS is basically an economic alliance whose first goal was to facilitate exchanges between its member countries. It was not possible to cancel this alliance according to geopolitical variables, nor to hold one of its members accountable according to his position in international politics, and I mean here Russia, especially since the alliance includes China (in a trade war with the United States for years) and India (in an indirect war against The United States, which supports its regional enemy Pakistan), and Brazil (which adopts open economic policies contrary to the influence of the dollar) and the desire of other countries to join this alliance, who all want liberation from the authority of the United States that extends its influence (literally) on the global economy through policies She alone controls it.

The only question is why should the BRICS countries dirty themselves by associating with an international terrorist country, a country that always breaks all its promises?  India, China and Brazil know very well that Russia is a country whose word and promises are worthless. Moreover, the whole "greatness of Russia" is a complete fake ! Russia has nothing really competitive - no economy, no military-industrial complex, no technology - only FEIKES and fairy tales drawn as "documentary cartoon", which the Kremlin criminals indulge themselves in.
I don't think countries like India and China are exactly SUPPORTING Russia. From the indicators I see, they just "have" Russia for their own benefit "here and now". If India is just a reasonable country, China needs Russia to be extremely weakened economically and militarily. China considers Russia its resource (minerals, land, territories) appendage.

PS I'll also add - given what China is doing with BRICS now, I'd rename BRICS to B-RISC = Big Risc

I find that this is a sound procedure, given that the BRICS alliance cannot isolate itself from the global situation of the member countries, and because if it really intends to study the abolition of the dollar, then it must work to get rid of its dollar reserves first. Currently, there is no way to help Russia bypass international sanctions except by providing support behind the scenes, away from the eyes of international scrutiny. The BRICS alliance certainly helps Russia, but it should not announce this publicly and maintain its global position as an economic entity contributing to the global economy.

Oh man, so you finally admit the West is going to feel the consequences of the sanctions they introduced? And there's going to be a drop in the standard of living? Blind man starting to see?  

Anyway, you mentioned that Ukraine is not letting Russia go further? Can you provide any source to support your claim? Or is the source SOMA (straight outta my ass) as always?  

Any global war, always a huge problem for the economy, both the country of the aggressor, and the country - victims of aggression, as well as the entire world economy !
True there is one nuance..... If the countries of the developed west managed to achieve a high standard of living, they are used to it, and they do not really want to sharply reduce their standard of living, the aggressor country is mostly inhabited by a poor population, which has never seen and lived with a high standard of living. And nothing has changed for them except that some quality products have disappeared, and they are periodically caught and sent like slaves to die for some morbid fantasies of their ruler.

In sum, we have: developed countries are trying to look for some "simple way" to preserve their welfare, without trying to look deeply into the essence of what is happening, Ukraine has to restrain Rashism at the immeasurable cost of lives of its citizens, not letting it go further (and they are already openly voicing these plans), carriers of Rashism, having nothing in their lives, easily succumb to propaganda, and go to "defeat the decaying West". All this leads to world economic, and not only economic, problems.

PS I recommend, if you have acquaintances in Russia, to ask them the question "what are you fighting for", and before you hear the answer, invite a psychiatrist, he will explain to you what is going on in their heads ).

I think the race among countries to acquire the new and the best cutting edge technologies in warfare has always been going on quietly and most times majorly overlooked. But with the launch of the war in Ukraine, tensions are mounting all over and funds that was supposed to have gone towards something productive and beneficial for the general populace has been sunk into the military.
Admittedly, wars and chaos would drastically increase the tensions that’s already heightened and cause nations to increase their military budget to help acquire new weapons of mass destruction and warfare. Of course, gun runners would also have fat pockets at the height of any war.

By launching the biggest bloody and predatory war in Europe in over 70 years, Putin's regime in Russia has dramatically spurred an arms race around the world. Instead of investing material resources in ensuring the development of new technologies that will contribute to more comfortable conditions for human life, the development of science, further space exploration, now many states are creating or acquiring the most deadly murder weapons that can protect, if necessary, the country from such bloody regimes. Of course, this is very sad.

The impact that wars and conflicts can have on the world economy is quite worrying. .. War has a devastating effect on the economic and financial stability of the countries involved. The cutting off of oil supplies to the euro by Russia, as well as the scarcity of other essential resources and products due to conflicts, can lead to a number of problems, including significant disruption in production and trade, which could lead to a decline in economic activity. and ultimately to a recession. Unemployment could rise as companies struggle to stay afloat and investors are reluctant to make new investments in a climate of uncertainty.

From another point Financial markets can also be affected by the economic instability caused by the war. .. Uncertainty and risk can lead to increased volatility in stock markets and currencies, which could have a negative impact on investors and financial institutions. These scenarios can be devastating for people and me. A recommendation to combat and endure this chaos is to have a capital saved in gold.

A little positive from the "brothers in the fight against the dollar"

BRICS bank refused to invest in Russia due to sanctions
The New Development Bank (NDB), created by the BRICS countries to finance investment projects and has issued $30 billion in loans over 7 years, will not invest in Russia. This was announced on Wednesday by the head of the bank, Dilma Rousseff, in 2011-2016. served as President of Brazil.

According to Rouseff, the bank, which was created with Russian funds, fully complies with international sanctions and therefore does not consider new projects in the Russian Federation. Rousseff also called "baseless" suggestions that the bank could continue to work with Moscow.

Established in 2015, NDB received $10 billion from the founding countries - Russia, China, India, Brazil and South Africa - and over 8 years of operation has increased its loan portfolio by more than 30 times. But the war in Ukraine and the subsequent sanctions against the Russian Federation hit the bank. Almost two-thirds of the funds raised by the bank were US dollars. And it turned out to be difficult to refinance these loans: Russia's participation in the bank's capital (with a 20% share) made it "toxic" in the eyes of investors and closed the doors to capital markets.

Yes, currently in Russia there is a depreciation of the Russian ruble against the US dollar.  Inflation is also on the rise. 

Today I listened to the program of the economist Potapenko, and he predicted a 20 percent increase in food prices.  It's a lot. 

The government is trying to fight inflation with different methods.  In particular, the sale of assets from gold and foreign exchange reserves (gold and Chinese yuan) is carried out.  In addition, the Central Bank raises the discount rate (refinancing rate).  This is done in order to prevent the fall of the ruble against the US dollar to 100 rubles per 1 US dollar and below. 

At the same time, the sale of gold and Chinese yuan from state reserves worsens the financial stability of the state.  And the increase in the discount rate of the Central Bank has a negative impact on the development of industry and agriculture.

the causes of inflation in Venezuela have slightly different causes. The reasons why Russia turned out to be a "colossus on clay feet" - in total corruption, lies, theft and the habit of creating a fairy tale for the masses, taking their eyes off reality. As the whole world has already become convinced - Russia in most areas, which they proudly and constantly called "unparalleled", turned out to be nothing, a fake ... The "second army of the world", armed with "technologies unavailable to the West" - incurs indescribable losses against the AFU, all their "advantages" are reduced only to multiple "meat attacks", when thousands and tens of thousands throw their citizens, on the fortifications of the AFU. The economy - turned out to be the same "bubble" - while oil still somehow fuels the economy, and the stream of money, which used to be a huge flow, is decreasing every day. And "Russia's friends" are simply using it to the fullest, "screwing" it at every turn....
The power and security of the country - also turned out to be a fake, after the Kremlin PMC Wagner, easily and effortlessly destroyed the resistance of the SECOND ARMY of the world, on the territory of Russia, captured in 12 hours 2 major cities in the east, and was going to take Moscow. At the same time, the entire top brass fled from Moscow, leaving a "wet trail" behind them

         What happens? Is the Russian ruble now in the dustbin of history? Has it become worse than the Indian rupee? Is that how it works or am I missing something? If so, then I'm not surprised at all, because. this is what it all came down to. Managers in the Russian Federation are incompetent and do not understand what they are doing. Came to power in the most disgusting ways that can only be. Here is the result.
         Now I understand that no alliances will help Russia. All this is in the past. It is sad to realize this, but such is the current reality. Expect complete isolation from the world and hyperinflation, as happened not so long ago in Venezuela.

Unfortunately, some of the representatives of African states recently visited Kiev only to try to convince Ukraine not to resist Russian aggression and did not indicate the reason for the current difficult food situation on their continent, namely, Russia's attempt to destroy the neighboring state of Ukraine. They did not condemn Russia's act of aggression, and therefore their visits first to Ukraine and then to Russia did not lead to anything. Now they will be able to fully feel in their countries their passivity in the international arena.

I'll elaborate a bit. Indian rupee, can be used in localized transactions, with other countries. But there are conditions:
- India must maintain the liquidity of its currency. This means that the country that will receive the rupees must receive them in full according to the treaties and be able to freely dispose of them - both to buy any goods in India and convert them into any currency freely. Not like India did with Russia
- Nobody really needs the ruble, because you can't buy anything with it. And it is unprofitable and unprofitable to store this paper trash.

        Let them throw tomatoes at me, but I will say the following. I completely agree with you that the Russian ruble and the Indian rupee are not needed by anyone, except for the internal population of these countries. There is an equivalent around the world - the US dollar. It is used to pay for goods and services. Therefore, I see no reason to create various alliances after the main coalitions were formed many years ago.
       Of course, such attempts were made, but they did not lead to anything and are already falling apart because of their senselessness. Why am I doing this? Also, like you, it would be interesting to know what transactions are carried out in those national currencies that I mentioned at the very beginning.

In my opinion, there is nothing to brag about in this situation. According to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Russia has already lost more than 237,000 of its soldiers in Ukraine, who, with weapons in their hands, came to conquer the neighboring state and kill Ukrainians. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, which is reported to Putin weekly, irretrievable losses have already exceeded 300,000. If we take into account the generally accepted statistics that there are usually three times more wounded than those killed, then Russia has already lost more than a million of its soldiers in Ukraine. And this is for the sake of the imperial ambitions of Putin, who in the 21st century decided to prove himself a great conqueror of neighboring states?

But if the Russians have not yet completely drunk their brains away, then sooner or later the instinct of self-preservation must turn on. Under pain of criminal liability, they are now forbidden to ask direct and uncomfortable questions to their rulers about this war. This allegedly discredits their army. But the obvious military defeat in Ukraine is sobering for many, and the recent riot of the Wagnerites is only the first bell in this direction. Putin's throne is already wobbly.

US-Russia conflict could enter a new phase very soon in the coming days or weeks but in a different battlefield in Syria.

As you may know US is illegally occupying Syria, more specifically the oil rich regions to steal Syrian energy; while both Iran and Russia are in Syria with the direct invitation of the country to help fight the US backed terrorists.

Recently US has been activating its terror cells inside Syria (more specifically the Takfiri terrorists in north and north-west Syria + separatists/terrorists in eastern Syria) while moving in more forces to their own illegal bases. There is also talks of air defense being sold to terrorist militia in the separatists occupied Northern Iraq (Kurdistan region).
Meanwhile there has been some "face off" between Russian air-force and USAF where they just put on a show for each other! as armed forces are increasing there with increasing tensions.
Such tensions on a smaller scale are not unusual but the other side is usually the resistance against illegal occupation and they end it very quickly using Shock and Awe. Like last month where USAF bombed one of their weapons storages so they retaliated by bombing 5-6 US bases in the region with over a hundred missiles, rockets, shells and loitering munitions.

The economic significance of this is on energy. With the tensions that US is increasing and as they keep destabilizing the most oil rich region, specially if Russia is pulled into the conflict and continues its air attacks against terrorist positions (or rather increases them) while giving air support to the resistance, it could free them up to focus on US occupiers.
As I said above this could prevent US from stealing Syrian energy that includes between 60k to 100k barrels of oil per day.  In today's oil market this amount going back to the energy starved Syria in addition to the conflict in the most oil rich region could significantly increase the oil price, could be even above $100.

Nothing is certain though, we have to wait and see what the next move is and what the scale of the upcoming conflicts are going to be like. It could be from small skirmishes that end abruptly with another Shock and Awe so no major effect on energy prices to a larger conflict that starts in both Syria and Iraq and ends up in the Persian Gulf specially since recently US announced sending some toy aircraft (ie. F-16 fighter jets) to The Persian Gulf where ~20 million barrels of oil pass every day.

Which dollar you're talking about? The one which is barely avoiding default several times a year by increasing debt ceiling by many trillions?


That's not even a real currency anymore just some Monopoly money! 

You have to understand one thing: even if ruble goes down to zero, the war WILL NOT STOP. Russia is a self-sufficient country, Putin is paying his tank factory workers in rubles. People in Russia are buying groceries in rubles. They are paying for utilities in rubles. Sanctions can't stop the war and can't overthrow Putin.

Dear Sithara007 ! I want to share information with you, and listen to your conclusions. As a person who does not deny logic, can you explain the following fact:
12.07.2023. The Central Bank recorded a collapse in the inflow of currency into Russia. The Russian economy has experienced a collapse in the inflow of foreign currency, according to quarterly statistics from the Central Bank of Russia.
In April-June, Russia received only $5.4 billion in balance of payments surplus - the difference between the main currency flows in and out of the country. Compared to the same period last year, the economy's notional foreign exchange gain collapsed 14 times, or by 93%, and if we compare it to the first quarter of this year, it almost tripled.

Provided that:
- oil and gas revenues of the currency are the MAIN ones for the budget of the terrorist country
- according to your statements - there are no discounts, there are rising prices, and increased consumption of oil from the terrorist country.

Now logically try to explain all three facts ?  I am very interested to know the logical chain - when the main direction of the economy that brings foreign currency is growing and increasing by all indicators, but in the end - BUSTING of foreign currency revenues. No, not a decrease, but exactly a BUST of foreign exchange earnings !