Topic: The impact of Russian and Ukrain war on world economy - page 14. (Read 11386 times)

I don't really believe in it.  This scenario seems unlikely to me.  For many reasons.  

I recently spoke with a former Ukrainian woman (she just received Russian citizenship).  She was glad that many left Russia for other countries (Georgia, Armenia, Finland, Kazakhstan, Mongolia) and urged them not to be allowed back.  She gave me a lecture on the passionarity of the Russian people and said that the war reveals the best qualities of people.  I was surprised.  

I see a trend towards replacing former Russians with new people with different cultural and moral values.  And these are not only former Ukrainians, but also residents of the Central Asian republics.  It can be assumed that the territory of present-day Russia will remain unchanged, but the population will be mentally and culturally completely different.  This is probably how it was originally intended.

With which I absolutely agree - with the fact that there will be no uncontrollable from outside, the collapse of Russia.
It will be manageably divided into several segments. The Kuriles will go to Japan to restore historical justice. Trans-Urals and the Far East of Russia - either everything will become Chinese, or it will become partly Chinese, and partly independent republics under the control of China. Most likely it will be in replacement of the "untouchability" of Taiwan.

The central republics, including Muscovy, will go under external control, plus they will become donors to the program for paying reparations to the peoples who suffered from the USSR and the Russian Federation. And they will be hostages of their past crimes for decades.

The main question is not the peoples of the Russian Federation, they have never been "handed over" anything in this life ... The question of control of nuclear weapons! Because Russia today is the basis of international terrorism, and supports and finances other terrorist regimes and groups, if the component leaks into these hands. But I think this issue is also not very difficult to solve, through total control, or manipulation of local "kings"

Almost all of them. For example every week between 1 to 2 million people protest across France to which the French police reacts with brute force. The number of people wounded and maimed (like those losing an eye) in French protests is the highest in the history of the world.
As we speak there is a violent protest going on in Netherlands.
Yesterday there was a protest in south-east Germany where hundreds against delivering arms to Ukraine. There has been more protests in Germany with hundreds of thousands of people.
There are regular protests in Spain where they burn US and NATO flag.
There has been mass protests and strikes across UK over the past year.

And a lot more that you can find on the internet specifically social media despite the mass media censorship by European governments.

Russia has a history of brutality - they have been brutal since the beginning and they are proud of it. They have never been in trouble because they have oil and gas reserve and they will keep it the same way for they future.

Russia will not break up into several states.  The collapse of the state is possible only if this process is supported from the outside by other states.  

And who now supports the possible collapse of Russia?  Nobody supports....

For example, when Moldova withdrew from the USSR, it was supported by friendly Romania.  Azerbaijan was supported by Turkey.  The Baltics were supported by friendly European countries (for example, Germany).  Even Russia was supported by the USA.  

The collapse of the USSR was approved by the entire world community, in fact, all this took place under the patronage of Western countries.  

In addition, there were high hopes for assistance in building prosperous national capitalist states (the new Marshall Plan).  The Soviet people had big illusions.

And who will help the new states now?  You see what is happening in the world....  

Russia, in any case, will remain as a single state.

Yes, the supply of energy carriers in the world has become more complicated. Established logistics supply chains are disrupted. Many countries, including European countries, suffer losses in this regard. But it didn't happen by itself. If Russia had not pursued an aggressive aggressive policy, had not attacked Ukraine, and then had not begun to blackmail Europe precisely with energy supplies, all this would not have happened. As a result, Russia will lose the most, and so much so that it itself can break up into many independent states. It may already happen this year.

As far as I understand, Europe has simply changed suppliers of natural gas and oil - instead of Russia, hydrocarbons are now supplied to Europe by the United States and Arab countries. 

China and India have also changed hydrocarbon suppliers - there were Arab suppliers, now Russian ones. 

As a result, everyone is now buying expensive hydrocarbons, everyone is suffering losses, and all logistics flows have become more complicated.  There is nothing good.

Humanity as a species has become less efficient, less friendly, less able to solve complex global problems.

I agree with you that the year 2022 proved that Europe can abandon Russian energy resources after Russia reduced its supplies to record levels. Russia thought that it could punish Europe by putting pressure on the energy file, but it forgot that damage would befall its economy, which forced it to sell its products at less than half the price to China and India, and resort to Turkey to establish a gas distribution station instead of using the old methods.
Perhaps it is also fortunate for Europe that the winter this year was not severely cold, which provided it with additional energy resources, in addition to gaining enough time to search and find alternatives to Russian gas and oil.

Yes, I agree, the tone of my answer was sarcastic. I apologize !
But, at the same time, I gave extremely real numbers and indicators. I always adhere to reality and the truth, even if it is not pleasant to me, or acts against me. But it is true, it is a reality and it is foolish to deny it.

Regarding the value of Russia as a source of fossil sources. This status is also exaggerated. To a greater extent, this is propaganda and an objectively successful plan of the USSR / Russia to form the dependence of the European economy on Russian energy carriers. But as you can see now, this myth also collapsed. Germany, France, Italy had a real dependence. Sometime in the 60-70-90s of the last century, some powerful European politicians simply sold their countries in exchange for corruption schemes proposed by the Kremlin corrupt officials. But... In 2022, from summer to autumn, it turned out that it was possible to find alternative suppliers that are adequate and keep their obligations.

not only the European Union felt the impact of the war between Russia and Ukraine, Asia also felt the impact. with the scarcity of people's needs impacting on high market prices, with the limited supply of wheat from these two countries, we have to pay a lot of money for our needs. this is a form of the impact of the war between Russia and Ukraine in my opinion

I may be wrong about the economic ranking that Russia occupies globally, I may have confused things, or my information is not updated. I think your comment was somewhat sarcastic, and my answer does not deserve all this intensity.
However, we cannot overlook the fact that Russia represents one of the most important sources of energy with which the modern world operates. And most of its conflicts and alliances with international parties are based mainly on that energy force. And according to the data you published, it can be explained that Russia is fighting a regional war and other wars by proxy in several places in the world, is to strengthen its economic position.

no offense
Tell me - are you lying so openly because you feel sorry for Russia, or simply do not have global information, and broadcast what someone told you, but did not provide data?

I will explain, and you and anyone else can check this: Russia is not even in the TOP 10 in terms of the scale of the economy.

And this despite the fact that more than 50% of its "power" is the sale of what they dug up or sucked out of the ground

But from the point of view of influence on the world economy, excluding oil and gas, the value of Russia on a global scale generally vanishes to 0. Try to prove the opposite?


UN data: Easily verified. Will you show the data where Russia is in third place? According to your OPINION, but most likely according to your imagination! Let's laugh all over the forum ))



Ranking Economy GDP ($ million)
Worldwide 85,804,390.60
1 United States of America 20,494,100.00
2 China 13,608,151.86
3 Japan 4,970,915.56
4 Germany 3,996,759.29
5 UK 2,825,207.95
6 France 2,777,535.24
7 India 2,726,322.62
8 Italy 2,073,901.99
9 Brazil 1,868,626.09
10 Canada 1,712,510.03

Can your opinion be considered a personal position, or is it based on sources? Russia is currently the third most powerful economy in the world, and any impact that may affect its economy could threaten the economy of the planet in one way or another. It is never easy to say that no one needs Russia.

What you are saying sounds like the war will end once Russian or Ukrainian nation will collapse, which I think and hope, won't happen. I also don't think that war will intensely continue for years because it will destroy to earth Russia's economy and since Russia has nuclear weapon, what's the point of destroying your country alone? Why won't they use it in case war continues for years and their country is falling apart? One would say that there are families behind these politicians but I think aim is greater for them then family members.

Just two questions:

• In which European countries are mass economical and anti-NATO protests?
• Which European countries suppress these protests, if they exist, violently?

It really turned into dead weight in the last years of Soviet Union. Btw this doesn't mean that Soviet-Union was a failure for Russia, no but it turned into failure because of very high corruption and nepotism in socialistic country. Let me explain, in the soviet union, government was owning every business and people were following their commands but this turned into a problem itself because since the business was owned by their government, directors and managers of branches were stealing from their places because it wasn't their personal wealth but the wealth owned by government. So, finally this bubble burst and then the soviet fell.
Putin wants to rebuild Soviet Union because he will have access on more land and more workforce but to be honest, he has to make Russia good place at first because Russia is poor, cities other than Moscow and Saint Petersburg are really dead cities. If he rebuilds soviet union, it will be death in other countries and cities too because they aren't able to build good countyies.

Do you really think someone needs Russia? Who will attack her?
Are you seriously ?!
FOR WHAT
Resources - this is how Russia happily digs them, cleans them, wraps them in packaging - as it is ordered, and gladly exchanges them for either dollars or yuan! Why capture and try to control 80-90 million people, if they can send papers and they will do all the work like slaves?
Destroy and weaken? FOR WHAT ? There are already thieves and criminals in power in the Kremlin, who are plundering Russia at a devastating pace, and are making every effort to degrade the population and even openly destroy it! Only China needs Russia - and then in order to return part of its historical territories in a revealing way! The rest of the world does not need Russia! Just take it and simulate - what will happen if Russia disappears from the world map tomorrow? What will change? I'm talking about negative changes? NO, nothing in the world will change - it will not noticeably! But there will be a positive - the world will live more calmly, many terrorist regimes and groups will soon cease to exist, because. their uterus and main sponsor died!

Recently I read an interesting opinion about the Russian war in Ukraine and that the Russian occupiers deliberately neglect any moral, ethical and legal norms on the territory of Ukraine in order to humiliate the West and with the help of an anti-Western coalition consisting of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea pursue its own policy, which will not be based on common European values, but on the right of the strong. With the war in Ukraine, therefore, Russia and its allies are trying to establish a new world order with completely different values.

Link to article:
https://zn.ua/POLITICS/rf-kitaj-iran-i-kndr-planirujut-sozdat-antizapadnyj-mirovoj-porjadok-mezhdunarodnyj-tsentr-issledovanij-ukrainy.html

Are you really not worried about the wild dissonance in what you say and what the Kremlin squeals to the whole world?
It is strange to hear your mantras for self-hypnosis, despite the fact that:
- The Russian economy is "bursting at the seams"
- Huge holes in the budget
- Isolation of an already very weak economy from the world economy. Before the start of the war against Ukraine, Russia's share in the world economy was 1.8%, now it is no more than 1%. Russia has become a raw material appendage of China and India
- The defeat of the army, and the complete fiasco of the tale of "unparalleled Russian weapons." Loss of the arms market, where until recently Russia held a leading position
- The status of a pariah country, now for decades.
- Impoverishment and degradation of the Russian population
- Loss of the largest oil and gas market - the EU
... you can list the "benefits of sanctions" for a long time
Do you seriously want to say that these are all positive changes?

There is an interesting piece from the Wall Street Journal:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russias-wagner-troops-exhaust-ukrainian-forces-in-bakhmut-b58e726c

It explains how Russia is using "expendable" troops (i.e prisoners fighting under the banner of PMC Wagner) to wage an attritional warfare against the best trained Ukrainian units within Bakhmut. For Russia, sending prisoners to die in the frontline is much more preferable to sending regular soldiers. On the other hand, Ukraine doesn't have any such option and they are wasting some of their best trained soldiers in this city. And despite all the rumors about Russia running out of ammo, the article states that it is the Ukrainians who are short of ammunition.

Everything will end as soon as putin withdraws his troops from the territory of Ukraine, then there is a high probability that the crisis will be reduced.many are waiting for the war to end, people must stop dying.

Yes, the mercenaries who are known to fight alongside with Ukraine are mostly American and Poles but that is because they don't have any reasons to be afraid of as their motherland will always come to protect them and get them at any cost especially in the times of war. And the easiest part is, these mercenaries doesn't have to get any permit just to fight alongside with Ukrainians.
But along with other reports, there are indeed some Syrian mercenaries who came to Ukraine to help the forces from defending there land, but these news are not that known because they are kept behind the shadows.