Topic: The impact of Russian and Ukrain war on world economy - page 14. (Read 13382 times)

Any big wars have a sharply negative impact on the world economy. After all, war is the total destruction of material infrastructure and human resources. Especially if such a war broke out in the center of Europe. Of course, the direct participants in this war, Russia and Ukraine, will suffer first of all. But if in Ukraine there is simply no other worthy choice but to protect its territorial integrity, then Russia, as an aggressor, has chosen a very stupid and disastrous position for it in the 21st century.
As Germany eventually began to condemn the fascism born on its territory, so the Russians have yet to do the same with their current rashism.

While Russia is trying in vain to somehow manipulate the OIL market, gas continues to fall in price. Moreover, the word "fall" conveys the real picture of the price. From the peak in August 2022 to May 2023, the price actually fell 4 times. At the same time, it continues to decrease systematically. Although gas, until recently, was the most significant lever of pressure on the EU, where everyone was supposed to simply "freeze to death without Russian gas." This blackmail and threats not only did not work, moreover, it gave the opposite result. And now the EU economy buys gas from adequate suppliers, at adequate prices, which is BENEFICIAL for the EU economy and its residents. But it is diametrically opposite - it is not beneficial for Russia. But who will ask her and who is interested in her in the modern world!?

Oil. Attempts at Russian manipulation sometimes give results, but ... they do not change the market globally. Manipulation cannot withstand the real market. The gas example showed this. And the growing problems of the Chinese economy indicate that the demand for oil will not grow in the coming years. Plus - new players appear on the oil market, ready to "work with their elbows for a place in the sun"

I think this is a complex problem that requires careful analysis and management. My view is that another factor contributing to the increase in inflation is the increased demand for goods and services as the economy begins to reopen and recover. This increased demand can create a temporary imbalance between supply and demand. This can be suppressed if geopolitical conditions improve and conditions return to normal, even though it takes a long process so that investors return home and carry out their activities again, wherever that may be.

For starters - no aggression, it's just that you probably took this offer very close, and if this is aggression for you - I apologize!

Ok, let's go the other way. Why I wrote "Your favorite RT" is for a simple reason.
It was you who accused me of reading a "CIA-related" propaganda site
"Why do you keep quoting moscowtimes.ru? It's a CIA-linked propaganda site." Are these YOUR WORDS? About propaganda, and the CIA?

By the way, the second part of your answer about Bellingcat is also your fantasy, because According to "Bellingcat is an online publication founded on July 14, 2014 by British citizen journalist and blogger Eliot Higgins and is engaged in investigative journalism about war zones using the method of analyzing data from open sources." Where is the "MI-6/CIA puppet" or "why can't I see the resources?" as you say These are your speculations. I regularly read their investigations, and I will tell you, at least in Ukraine - they are extremely close to reality and I do not see any noticeable attempts to distort reality! Those. if reality without manipulation is an MI6/CIA puppet?

From the experience of my communication, in 99% of cases such arguments are given by residents of Russia when they find themselves in a "difficult situation" in dialogues, and they have no arguments, facts, logical explanations. Everything goes to the level of "it's all a US conspiracy"

I also gave RT as a great example of what a truly PROPAGANDISM CHANNEL is.
And the fact that you do not see the source - if you really want the truth - we can INDEPENDENTLY find all the information - it's all in open sources! Yes, I affirm in advance that in Russia all the media today are controlled by the state, and they all work according to the same "manual". All media that do not support 101% of the state and power have ceased to exist a long time ago ... You can also check and see for yourself.

PS Yes, I am a citizen of Ukraine. Russian by nationality, born in the territory of modern Russia, and having many relatives in Russia, which means I have information from real residents of Russia.

While some are self-hypnotic and trying to dream from alternate universes, the reality is this:

A few excerpts from the information of the last days:
- Ordinary residents of Russia: "-Now I contacted relatives, friends in Energodar (Zaporozhye NPP). They also announced an evacuation there, but warned that there would not be enough transport for everyone, so only activists who collaborated with the new government are guaranteed to leave ...". Just remember this post
- The State Duma urged to oblige the Russians to protect the borders from Ukrainian sabotage. The country does not have opportunities, "as in the Soviet Union," so you need to defend yourself with "people's squads," said Andrei Kartapolov, head of the defense committee.
- Parades on May 9 are canceled all over Russia. In Moscow, it will pass without aviation and in a "short version" - the paranoid bunker is afraid that his soldiers will destroy him. Well, to show all the parade units "having no analogues" will not work physically - most of them were simply destroyed in Ukraine by the forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine!
“The deadlines are not met.” The government recognized the fiasco with the replacement of foreign software at power plants. If you fulfill the presidential decree on the complete transition to domestic software, there will be a shortage of electricity in Russia, the Ministry of Energy found out ))
- The last clients of Gazprom in Eastern Europe have agreed to buy Azerbaijani gas. Hungary and Slovakia, which are 85% and 30% dependent on Gazprom, will receive gas from Azerbaijan this year.


Well, the "heroism of the Russian army" - today they again showed it in all its "glory". Today at 4 am, Ukraine was subjected to another rocket attack. The blows were inflicted exclusively on peaceful cities. 90% of the missiles successfully shot down Ukrainian air defenses. 2 missiles hit civilian targets in the city of Uman. Civil Warehouses, and Multi-Family Residential Building. At 4 am, when people are SLEEPING, to a PEACEFUL home. Many people died, including small children. This is "Russian Heroism" ...

Information about what the Ukrainian army took up positions on the left bank of the Kherson region. (in particular, that the Armed Forces of Ukraine were seen on the banks of the Dnieper north of Oleshki (7 km southwest of Kherson) and advanced to the northern outskirts of the settlement along the E97 highway west of Dacha (10 km south of Kherson), for the first time reported by the American Institute for the Study war (ISW) with reference to videos of Russian military bloggers with geolocation and text reports.

However, the operational command "South" of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was even outraged by such a message, pointing out that the premature announcement of such information could harm the course of this military operation and advised to be patient in order to receive good news when it was safe for the Ukrainian military. Therefore, the Armed Forces of Ukraine did not confirm, but did not refute such information.

Sources:
https://newsua.ru/news/90432-kiev-potreboval-ot-luchshikh-studentov-isw-soblyudat-informatsionnuyu-tishinu-po-povodu-nastupleniya-vsu

https://kordon.org.ua/vvsu-zanyali-platsdarm-na-levom-beregu-hersonshtin-idet-prodvizhenie-k-oleshkam-v-isw.html

https://focus.ua/voennye-novosti/562273-territoriya-uderzhivaemaya-ukrainoy-vsu-zamecheny-na-levom-beregu-dnepra-na-hersonshchine-isw

I don't think that this is accurate.

I have checked the territorial changes in all the major frontline cities. Apart from Bakhmut, fighting is underway near Vuhledar, Avdeevka, Kreminna, Kupiansk, Marinka, Huliaipole and Kherson. Out of all these cities, Ukraine has gained territory only in Kherson region (and that too very small area to the North of Oleshky, where the Russian troops were not present). With each passing day, Ukraine is losing hundreds of their soldiers and making further territorial losses. I don't know how you are saying that the Ukrainians are advancing.

On April 27, speaking at a joint briefing with the Prime Minister of Luxembourg, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated:
“In general, through the contact group led by the United States, NATO allies and partners have provided Ukraine with unprecedented assistance. More than 98% of the combat vehicles promised to Ukraine have already been delivered. This means more than 1,550 pieces of armored vehicles, 230 tanks and other equipment, including a large amount of ammunition.”
According to him, more than nine new Ukrainian armored brigades have been trained and equipped thanks to the support of partners.

That is, almost all the heavy armored vehicles that were promised to Ukraine from NATO countries are already in Ukraine. Yes, most of the received equipment is not directly from the factory conveyor, but the situation in Russia is even worse.

In addition, Stoltenberg added: "This will give Ukraine a strong position for the further reconquest of the occupied territories". As you can see, NATO has no doubts about the successful offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Sources:

https://news.pn/en/politics/290066

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.dp.ru/a/2023/04/27/nato-vooruzhenie-i-podgot&ved=2ahUKEwj4k67S1Mr-AhWDxgIHHZGQDboQFnoECB8QAQ&usg= AOvVaw0sZg-RpBf9TyjW3Twtdbwq

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.belarus.kp.ru/online/news/5246105/&ved=2ahUKEwj4k67S1Mr-AhWDxgIHHZGQDboQFnoECAsQAQ&usg=AOvVaw06uEq-qCOOe426iKICYZBA

By the way, despite the prolonged rainy weather, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are already slowly starting to advance. Now, pinpoint strikes are mainly carried out on accumulations of manpower and equipment, ammunition depots, air defense and MLRS of the invaders are being destroyed. At the same time, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have already crossed to the left bank of the Dnieper, seized a bridgehead and are slowly pushing the Russians to the Sea of Azov. Let the soil dry and we'll see.

Lol dude, do you actually believe what you write? Even in the West, few people seem to believe in the success of the publicized Ukrainian offensive, which has already been postponed for so long. Ukraine has dramatically few planes, much fewer tanks from Europe than promised (and only 60 new Leopards, the rest is rusty rubbish), dramatically few artillery shells, dramatically few air defense missiles, the "offensive guard" trained at the training grounds of Europe has no real combat experience . In such scenarios, conducting an offensive operation is like suicide. Ukraine now cannot even defend properly, although it is much easier to defend than to attack. Well, good luck.

Russia's military attack on Ukraine had a strong impact not only on the global economy, but also on the overall security of the world. Now humanity is on the brink of a nuclear war, the danger of which comes from Russia.

Russia was counting on an easy walk in Ukraine, but after a year and a series of military defeats, having awakened the beast, it is afraid of the active actions of the Ukrainian army already on its territory. One of the possible versions of the expected offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is an armored strike in the direction of the Russian Tula, given that there are no significant combat-ready units left on the territory of Russia itself that could offer serious resistance, and the civilian population is hardly capable of this. It was in the first days of the war, when about 7,000 different Russian military equipment rushed from Belarus and, due to the short distance, this armada immediately found itself near Kiev, more than 20,000 Kievans picked up machine guns to repel Russian aggression. This is not expected in Russia.

After that, the Russian military command will be forced to randomly organize defense and withdraw its units from the occupied territory of Ukraine. By the way, about 370,000 Russian troops are currently stationed on the territory of Ukraine. About 20,000 more arrive in Ukraine every month. Approximately the same number (that is, about 20,000) Russians are dying in recent months in Ukraine. When Russia weakens the front in the east and south of Ukraine, then the Armed Forces of Ukraine will strike the main blow there. In Russia, this development is clearly aware, so the Kremlin's propagandists are already preparing the Russians for defeat from Ukraine.

The question of the results of the counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for China is already closed. They understand that it will be successful. Therefore, they are now trying to protect the Russian army from defeat as much as possible. And the state itself is from collapse. So they will be able to put pressure on Russia to enter into peace talks on Ukraine's terms.

  During a recent visit to Moscow, Xi Jinping and Putin signed an agreement on the non-deployment of nuclear weapons in other countries. But immediately after that, Putin, realizing the catastrophic situation of his army in Ukraine, began to threaten that he would deploy it in Belarus. Therefore, Xi no longer counts on any agreements with Putin. In Ukraine, they have long understood that it is useless to negotiate with Putin, and that he understands only the language of force. And here the positions of Xi Jinping and Zelensky coincide. In addition, China has repeatedly sent signals to Russia about the inadmissibility of using nuclear weapons. It is logical that no one in the world needs such a war.

On April 26, for the first time since the start of a full-scale war, Chinese President Xi Jinping called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
After the conversation, Beijing decided to send its special envoy, Li Hui, to deal with what they call the "crisis." The key events of the war between Russia and Ukraine should take place in the next few months.

At this point, let's make some things clear:

1. I am not Russian
2. I don't live in Russia
3. I don't support Russia
4. I don't watch RT or any other Russian channel

I'm not surprised however, as you as a slavic person (I presume you're Ukrainian?) become aggressive and take it to the personal level. I don't like propaganda and I don't tolerate lies. I don't have anything against you personally and the Ukrainians in common.

Getting back to our discussion:


What's this? I can't see any source? How is it related to our previous discussion?

Meanwhile, the British began to explain about capitalism. Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill is in touch.

Well, in general, you understand that the evil Russians are to blame for everything and now the good British have become poorer, although it is difficult for them to accept this without clear explanations from the chief economist.

And now a few words about "propaganda channels". Take, for example, your favorite RT!
The founder and about him: "TV-Novosti is a media organization associated with the Russian government. Funded from the federal budget of the Russian Federation. Through its subordinate media, including RT, it spread pro-Kremlin propaganda and disinformation and supported Russia's aggressive war against Ukraine."
The channel is under sanctions and restrictions
Now the same information about moscowtimes - please provide?

Not going to deny these facts. The war has created a spike in the prices for wheat, sunflower oil and fertilizer. But in the long run, the prices will come down. Because if the retail price remains much above the cost of production, then other countries will increase their production of these commodities and eventually the prices will come down. For example, USA and Australia are among the top producers of wheat. The farmers in these countries have already increased the net cropped area in 2023, encouraged by higher prices.

It is undeniable that the continuous hostilities between Russia and Ukraine have had a major effect on trade, notably on the availability and costs of certain goods like wheat, sunflower oil, and fertilizers. These products are mostly produced and exported by Russia and Ukraine, whose conflict has disrupted supply chains and raised prices and shortages.

Congrats, you've reached a whole new level of retardation.

1.1. It's over there, quoted just above your text. 
1.2. Np, just post any latest "news" from moscowtimes.ru and I'll refute it easily.
2. What can I say? You're indeed retarded... I was referring to countries having access to the Baltic Sea and your lie about it becoming NATO's internal sea.
3. Great way to find out if you're arguing with a troll - no facts or proof, just baseless insults

I will specifically save your original text in full - everyone should enjoy it

1.1. "Why do you keep quoting moscowtimes.ru? It's a CIA-linked propaganda site." - evidence and facts that this is a CIA PROPAGANDISM SITE?
1.2. Can you refute the facts that this resource publishes? If yes, please provide proof? )))

2.
Say SWEDEN and FINLAND, are they the same in your mind? I have to disappoint you greatly...
Sweden has applied to join NATO. The signature remained for Turkey and Hungary. It will happen this summer


3. “Wait, if illegal employment collapsed, is that really great for Putin? Will taxes be paid more?” - no, just the SEGMENT OF THE ECONOMY, which is not being replaced by the real sector, just collapsed. Learn the basics of economics - that's my good advice to you


PS Tell me - do you really like to look so stupid?

The Statista Research Department recently published the difference between Urals and and Brent oil price a few days back, and the data can be accessed here:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1298092/urals-brent-price-difference-daily/

As you can see, the spread has decreased from a peak of $37 per barrel to around $20 per barrel as of now. Increased demand from China has resulted in lower discounts for India. The latter still accounts for more than 50% of the Urals imports, but after factoring in the insurance and freight, the overall discount has narrowed down to single digits.

Initial leak by Russian propagandists:



You can see clearly that the spaces don't match, the bullet points are not straight, and the whole text is out of order
Now, the original:



And now those weird spaces after 7 fighters and 8 rotary wings make sense since it's 72 and 82!
Same with the shitty 600 because it was actually 6,004!

You perfectly understand that it is foolish to demand from the participants of this forum knowledge of the contents of the original secret documents, which were recently leaked from the United States to social networks. Therefore, the discussion on this topic is really useless.
Now both sides in the war - Ukraine and Russia are preparing to intensify hostilities after the soil dries up and there is a good opportunity to use heavier armored vehicles. I don’t know about Russia, but Ukraine is going to attack and expel the invaders from its territory within a month and a half. The result of this offensive will put everything in its place and make this dispute irrelevant. But the events themselves promise to be very interesting.