Topic: The impact of Russian and Ukrain war on world economy - page 20. (Read 13245 times)

I am not sure how accurate this is. From social media, I get an impression that mercenaries who are fighting on the Ukrainian side (mostly Poles and Americans) have dwindled significantly during the past few months. Only the "Georgian Legion" remains active in the frontline cities. And I am yet to find any reports about large-scale activity from the Syrian mercenaries. BTW, a few hours back Prigozhin of PMC Wagner posted a video from Bakhmut, where he paraded a few under-age children fighting for Ukraine. He accused Zelensky of forcing children to fight the war, as the number of active professional soldiers declined due to deaths and injuries.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1631609003372343297

We are in 21st century, not 11th and no country can make it on its own and prosper, even if its the size of Russia.


Then why Putin keeps crying about it instead of being happy that Russia got rid off dead weight, so now they can finally prosper? Funny thing, even without that dead weight an average Russian lived worse than the citizens of some of the poorest EU countries despite all the natural resources.

The bulk of Armed Forces of Ukraine is no longer Ukrainian at this point, it consists of some "unofficial" NATO troops and takfiri terrorists transferred from Syria to fight Russia. Besides, a large part of Ukraine population has already fled the country. Considering how they've shown to fight for a decade in Syria, I agree that Ukraine can keep it up against Russia.

You are right about NATO (more specifically Europe) not being able to afford this war for that long but US is calling the shots, not Europe, nor Zelensky specially since he is just a pawn. And US doesn't want this war to end this soon or the benefits of it would stop too.
So the real question is how much longer Europe can withstand de-industrialization and how much longer they can violently suppress the mass economical and anti-NATO protests before they change their position.

Not really convinced of all this.
- After 9/11 countries such as Afghanistan can be sure that supporting terrorism at state level get you 20 years of foreign occupation. Even an opposing stance to US gets you an invasion (Iraq).
- Most countries want it quiet and calm. The CCP is happy with peace, as they simply ignore most of the regualtions, continue business and win the money game. China will not conquer the US, they will re-posses the US.

The RF was thought to be a commercial partner, hence what looks like laziness (actually I interpret it as pacifism). But that has ended, back to cold war thanks to Adolf Putin and his Pychos.

I believe Russia has made a big error in invading Ukraine because they calculated that they would seize the capital within three days and overthrow the actual government and put a puppet socket government pro Russia.By doing so and not being able to make substantial gains in this war they have weakened their economy to a point where their foreign minister is actively travelling to African countries and offer them free wheat or almost free wheat in order to find support there as no other developed countries from EU does not want any business anymore with Russia.This in the long term will have devastating effects toward the Russian economy because they cannot stand alone and even if they can they will be at least 40-50 years behind in technology.

I am heavily surprised by the Russian population agreeing to such stupidity.

It must be admitted that Russia was not offered to join NATO and the European Union.... 

I have always believed that if you position yourself as a leader, then you must have a mission directed to the outside world.  The United States has always positioned itself as a country that is the leader and coordinator of all world processes. 

But what was the US mission towards Russia?  Isolate her?  Do not allow to join the European Union, so as not to strengthen Germany? 

In my opinion, this is not a positive mission that can make the world a better place.  If you are an adult, then you must take care of children.  The country - the world leader is actually an adult surrounded by children.  And its task is to create a harmonious system of world relations. 

Russia and Ukraine are young countries - they have existed only since 1991. 

In 1991, the desire of Russians to join the family of civilized peoples was very great.  The disputes were only about who is closer to Russia - the US or Europe? 

Accordingly, all legislation, regulations, education standards, accounting system, etc. have changed.  and so on.  European and American samples were taken as a basis. 

A little later, the Internet appeared, which gave people the opportunity to freely communicate. 

In my opinion, it was a great chance to make the world more united, peaceful and friendly.

Are you seriously comparing Russia and North Korea? Why not with Cuba, it has also been under sanctions for half a century? Russia cannot be compared with anyone, it is a unique geopolitical formation, if only because of its scale. But in what you are right - within 5-10 years, Russia really has every chance of an economic miracle.

If sanctions are useful for Russia's economic development, and open borders only weaken it, then in 5-10 years we expect an economic miracle in this country. After all, even after so many years, if the sanctions are lifted, their consequences will be felt for many more years. Then Russia will become as strong as the current North Korea, which is also under certain sanctions and has been a closed country for many years. The strength of North Korea even allows you to claim that they can help a weakened Russia in the supply of military equipment for the war with Ukraine. True, in North Korea itself, a shortage of food is now especially evident, as well as other benefits of civilization. However, her government also claims that the well-being of the people of North Korea is constantly improving. Self-love is a big thing. Russia will soon have to deal with this as well.

Some of us may still not understand the consequences of the Ukraine Russia war to the world because they have enough capital to get whatever they want to buy. This is one of the reasons why the European union and other continental bodies are finding it difficult to export enough wheat to different locations. Russia and Ukraine are one of the countries that export large quantities of wheat and also natural gas. We are all suffering it without knowing how long we will stay out of the use of products from Russia.

Sanctions are not useless; on the contrary, they are very useful for Russia. Under conditions of free trade and an open market, Russia had no chance to develop its own economy, and it is precisely the closing of borders thanks to sanctions that gives Russia a chance to become economically self-sufficient and throw off the suffocating "Parshev's noose" from its neck. When two-thirds of your territory is permafrost, globalization and transparent borders become unprofitable. Russia becomes stronger in the presence of strong external threats and weakens when surrounded by friends. For Russia, the collapse of the USSR in the economic sense was not a tragedy, but a boon. Fool who does not understand this.

The point is not the possible plans of the United States and NATO in relation to Ukraine and Russia. No matter how they plan there, but determining is whether Ukraine and Russia want to join the European Union and NATO. Ukraine, of course, wants to, planned to achieve its actions to join these structures. But Russia, on the contrary, is opposed to both the European Union and NATO. She generally considers NATO to be her enemy number one since the USSR. Russia is an arrogant country and believes that it should not join someone, but should join it. Moreover, in the issue of joining others there, they always counted on coercion and gross power. We see it now in relation to Ukrainians and other neighboring countries. Russia has already made its choice and at the current stage in civilized states no one is waiting for it.

Zelensky has a "warrior spirit", but I'm afraid things don't last forever. At some point, allied countries will run out of resources/funding to continue supporting Ukraine with weapons. When that time comes, everything Ukraine has gained so far will be nothing but lost. I think Russia is waiting for this to happen, especially when it hasn't given any indications it will stop the invasion soon. NATO said it will continue supporting Ukraine "for as long as it takes", but I'd take that with a grain of salt.

Western countries are already feeling the pain of the Russo-Ukraine war, so expect support to decline the longer the crisis is extended. It's only been a year since the invasion began, anyways. Who knows what will happen 5 years from now? Just my thoughts

Another news from "great russia", "whose economy is stable, and sanctions are useless"

Russia's oil and gas export earnings down nearly 40% in January compared to last year (Reuters)
At the same time, the Russian budget includes a 23% decrease in oil and gas revenues compared to 2022, subject to the most pessimistic development of events.
Russia - is when a pessimistic forecast looks very positive against the background of reality 

Children's goods in the Russian Federation have risen in price by 17% in the first two months of 2023, children's clothing has become more expensive by 41%, baby food - by 12%, diapers - by 15% (Kommersant)

Mobile Internet in the Russian Federation slowed down by 7% due to a shortage of network equipment, the supply of which to the Russian Federation ceased with the outbreak of war (TelecomDaily study)

The Americans have been asking Zelensky to withdraw from Bakhmut for many weeks now. But he is adamant that he can reconquer all the lost regions. Ukraine has enough manpower to sustain the war for another 3-4 years. They are a country of close to 40 million people (after subtracting those who are residing in areas controlled by Russia). 1,000 KIA per day would mean 1 million losses in 3 years. It is something they can afford at least theoretically. But I am not sure whether the NATO would be interested in prolonging the conflict for so long. NATO weapon supplies are not infinite, and in due time there will be growing opposition to the spending on this war.

They say there has been a massive supply of weapons there, in fact they were comparing the size of the possible explosion of those storages with an atomic bomb. This is how huge the supply there is.

The war is definitely shifting away from Eastern Ukraine as it is evident from the withdrawal from Bakhmut and the transfer of forces to South West. I try not to predict what's going to happen since the information coming out from this war is usually manipulated and is more of a propaganda from both sides.

They should have but didn't. And there are many reasons.
Starting with the fact that Russia has always presented itself as supposedly the "heir of the USSR", and they say that it is she who represents the interests of all "smaller brothers". And many have accepted this position. Someone because of corruption interests, someone was simply not interested in bothering with "small countries", someone simply had their own interests that had to be solved either by themselves or by the hands of Russia ... Although in recent years, for example, Ukraine's integration into the EU and the world economy has intensified. I will tell you this fact - until 2014, many competitive Ukrainian products were sold to the world ... through Russian companies or under their control. At the same time, direct contact with the EU and other countries was extremely difficult. But for example, in 2017 I personally signed a direct contract with a company from the EU to provide IT solutions, and I still work with them. The whole procedure of registration and registration took me only a few days - and no difficulties!
And the scheme of work "through Russia" and "under the strict guidance of Russia" - this is still going on, but in other "brotherly" Russia republics. Although all of them have already understood that Russia, in fact, "sucks" out of them for a penny products that are competitive or necessary for Russia itself, and sells them exclusively.
Have you read the documentation of the "Customs Union"? Highly recommend. In fact, it is openly written there - Russia controls everything in the union, and where it does not control, it makes decisions - to allow or prohibit!

I don't quite agree with your position.  

In my opinion, back in the 1990s, the US and Europe should have presented a plan for the long-term integration of all the countries of the former USSR into the world community.  This applies to both Ukraine and Russia.  Both of these countries were to be admitted to the European Union and NATO (North Atlantic Alliance).  At the same time, a roadmap was to be drawn up for the entry of these countries into these organizations.  

Both Ukraine and Russia are two big fragments of one big country that no longer exists.  

And you can’t say to one country - we will help you integrate into the world community, and to another country to declare - but we do not want to know you, go to hell!  Solve your own problems!  Build your sovereignty however you want, be friends with whoever you want - you can be friends with the Chinese, you can be friends with Iran, you can be friends with North Korea, you can be friends with the Devil himself.  Your fate does not interest us, from the word "absolutely".  

This is a wrong position if a country positions itself as  the supreme (most important) integrator of all world processes.

That's the point. They officially present something that they call peace plan while all those points they mentioned have been discussed all the time anyway. But China might not be perceived differently by the broader public as the peace initiators nobody in world politics listens to. If they ever decide to invade Taiwan I am curioss what they will call their attack. Russia decided to go with special military operation and avoided to use the word war, China will approach that similarly if they decide to attack.

This peace plan could be a piece of the puzzle of their global propaganda that is one day supposed to help them justify their own attacks on foreign territory. They are also closely observing in how far the US economy is affected by this war, how many resources the US is tying up in Europe and whether they are still strong enough to defend Taiwan when the confrontation should escalate.

Looking at what is happening, I will say such an amazing thing at once - but there are positive changes in everything that is happening! Yes Yes ! Now I will explain. This does not apply to any specific countries, this is a general picture.

The whole world, in recent decades, began to suffer from laziness and infantilism. The West "was tired of working, the East decided that it was possible" the West gave it the "magic wand" of technology, some countries decided that after 9/11 they could continue to engage in terror, violence, and the West would not react, and most international structures and institutions simply money-burners and structures that, according to the protocol, "express concern" on any event, but do not take any steps. Moreover, these international structures began to quietly earn money on international "assistance" programs. And so it would continue to degrade, degenerate, and rotten ... if not for the last inadequate trick of Russia.

The world shook. More precisely, in 2014, the world turned a blind eye to this, they say, it's okay, the main thing is that we live quietly and calmly. And then the year 2022 came, when the Kremlin terrorists realized that, in fact, impunity reigned in the world, and for some, cowardice and a huge dependence on the "Kremlin that feeds them" ... The protective trigger worked at the first stage in several countries. The United States and Britain - as "senior" observers of the world, and Poland, Latvia, Liva, Estonia and some other European countries - who realized that it was time to remember such aggression and occupation by the USSR. And they began to help Ukraine. And then so many "pustules" were revealed, "tensions" arose in so many international relations, so many had their eyes opened that the world began to return to a normal, albeit not so comfortable, state. One of the reasons - it turned out that global and deep integration with some countries / regimes - is fraught with real and global risks. And that it is worth reconsidering our views on relations with them, on the indulgences that they have been given for the last 20-30 years, and in general on international mechanisms that, in general, have deprived the world of immunity from idiots and criminals. Yes, these changes will not be fast, but they are already running. And back already, no one will return in the near future, remembering the "lessons of history" of the beginning of the 21st century.

In my opinion, now there are no conditions for the start of peace negotiations. 

Peace negotiations are possible only in a situation where both sides of the conflict are unable to continue hostilities (or in a situation where it is required to sign an act of surrender of one of the parties). 

China is not interested in the growth of general instability in the world.  China is accustomed to long-term planning for the development of its economy. 

At the same time, China always has pre-calculated options for responding to any unexpected event.  It is difficult to say exactly what global goals China pursued by providing this peace plan.