Topic: The impact of Russian and Ukrain war on world economy - page 20. (Read 11382 times)

From this month onwards, it will get tricky. GOP has a simple majority in the United States House of Representatives. And furthermore, in order to win the speaker election, McCarthy had to enter in to a compromise deal with the conservative Republicans and he will not be able to support bipartisan measures. Sending military aid to Ukraine will be difficult for Biden, in cases where House approval is required. GOP is not as excited as the Democrats, to spend tax payer money on Ukraine. If the Ukrainians lose major cities such as Bakhmut and Soledar, it will get even more complicated. 

Yes, the US has announced a new security assistance fund for Ukraine these countries have come forward to make important contributions in support of Ukraine. But for this we will stand by Ukraine until Russia alone stops the ongoing war in Ukraine as long as necessary, I will provide assistance to Ukraine. Where the Russia Ukraine war has plunged the entire world economy into a major crisis, if the United States takes such a role, it can change the course of events.

Yes, the United States is now providing maximum support to Ukraine, since Biden's decision on the supply of Abrams tanks to Ukraine in order to stimulate Germany to transfer its Leopard tanks to Ukraine should be made public today. Also in the United States, a decision was made to increase the production of shells sixfold, bringing them to 90,000 per month, in order to meet the needs of Ukraine and create its own reserve for possible subsequent conflicts. In addition, due to the fact that Russian military equipment did not perform well in the war in Ukraine, the demand for equipment from NATO countries is growing, so NATO will have plenty of military orders, their military-industrial complex will work at full capacity.

For the countries of the European Union, Russia's war in Ukraine, of course, is annoying in terms of providing financial, material and military assistance to Ukraine. But they have already understood that in this way they avoid war on their territory. Now every day the blood of Ukrainians is shed, and therefore Europe agrees to help Ukraine, if only to avoid such a fate.

So far the United States have provided the maximum amount of military and financial aid to Ukraine. But even then, the current war is likely to have more of an impact for the EU rather than the US. Americans can just print a few hundred billions of USD worth of banknotes to take care of the additional expenses, since USD is the reserve and trade currency of the world. On top of that, the private corporations such as Boeing and Raytheon are benefitting out of this war. But the EU doesn't have any such luxury. The aid that is being given to Ukraine is straining their finances.

Russia has been hatching plans to take over Ukraine since the early 2000s. She first attacked Georgia in 2008. Precisely because the international community did not properly respond to this aggression, in 2014 Russia seized the Crimean peninsula and part of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in Ukraine. Received only some weak sanctions in response. Therefore, the full-scale invasion of Ukraine last year was the result of the passivity of world states.
The Putin regime expected that further other states, and above all the United States and Europe, would not support Ukraine and would not impose significant sanctions. But this time Russia miscalculated. First of all, this became possible due to the fact that the Ukrainians gave a fitting rebuff to the invaders. As the Armed Forces of Ukraine make progress on the fronts, the level of support for Ukraine also grows. In Europe, they finally realized that if Putin seizes Ukraine, then he will go further to the countries of Europe.

The current situation shows that the United States will benefit from this war in any case. Their main rival - Russia is losing its military and economic power in unsuccessful attempts to seize Ukraine. Russia will never regain its former power and former influence on world politics. NATO, which was created for the military confrontation between the USSR and then Russia, is now fulfilling this task with the hands of Ukrainians, only helping Ukraine with weapons and finances. Now the Russian professional army is almost completely defeated in Ukraine. In addition, Russia has lost almost all of its armored power in Ukraine. Now there are big problems even with artillery and ammunition. Soon Russia will not even be able to fully attack Ukrainian positions. The result will be able to observe in the spring, closer to summer.

I see the current unfortunate series of events as a sign of American decline. Russia wouldn't had invaded Ukraine if the US was a "force to reckon with". Now everybody is paying the price as gas, food, and energy prices are increasing by the day. Even though the US hasn't directly intervened in the conflict with its military, it has spent billions of dollars and wasted a lot of its weapons reserves to support Ukraine. The more it gives Ukraine, the weaker the US will become.

I think the bad things outweigh the benefits. It's almost a year since the war started, and energy prices haven't been put under control yet (both in the US and EU). The US claims inflation has declined, but with rising energy prices, things will get worse in the long run. Who knows if the whole world is headed towards a very dark future? Just my thoughts

YOu are right - but seems like Government is not ready to give relief to the general public.
I have heard the same - even in the USA the prices of the petrol raised and then they came back to normal. But here - it is still the same.
The good government is blessing and we have been deprived of it ever since.

Although there are a couple of cases of increased tensions in oil rich regions to worry about that could lead to big price spikes like the ongoing Saudi invasion of Yemen, but the supply and demand of oil seems to be currently at equilibrium so we shouldn't expect any major changes in the price. There were even a couple of tensions that had the potential of causing a spike over the past weeks but they only led to about 2-3% increase.
So I think for the time being the price stability is solid.

The price of the oil is been ranging between $70-$80 in these past weeks, there is also a high possibility that it may go over $80 because we are currently in Winter Season where we consume more gas and oil to generate electricity. According to the news that I watched, most of the Nations in Europe have enough gas supply that may use until this spring. Even though the oil supply that has been cut off because of the Nord Stream pipeline incident, a lot of countries are already been created a solution for it where they already find a short-term supply for their oil reserve and natural gas.

There is also a big effect of the current war in the Asia wherein the price of the cooking oil here is still high, my uncle has a manufacturing business of noodles where he keeps worrying for the price of the raw materials because they are not making any profit because of the Russia and Ukraine War.

FWIW if HIMARS was used you can't technically call it "pinpoint" strike because HIMARS is a rocket launcher and rockets by definition have lower accuracy since they are not exactly "guided" like missiles and pinpoint accuracy is a much higher accuracy that rockets can not have by design.

Well.. this is strange, because actually the crude oil price has remained at a level that we had 12 months back (except for a brief period, when the prices spiked to $120 per barrel). Gas has become more costly and there is no doubt about it. But that has a lot to do with the NATO bombing the Nord Stream pipeline. Coal has also gone up, but not as much as natural gas.

The real impact is being felt on some of the other commodities such as Potash fertilizer, Ammonia, Wheat, Barley, Sunflower oil and Steel. In India, the sunflower oil prices have gone up by 30%-40% during the last few months, since most of it is being imported from Russia and Ukraine. On top of that, the local currency has also gone down against USD, further exacerbating the inflation.

we use to import wheat from Ukraine and Oil from Russia - after the war both countries have partially ended their operations with our official and the inflation is at he peak main due to oil prices - and so on an so forth every country is upset because petrol prices are higher  and it make other things more costly than befoe

Russia, as always, hides the numbers of its occupiers killed in the Ukrainian town of Makeyevka and what event contributed to such a large number of victims among the Russian military. The Russian command gathered people there to watch the New Year's communication of their President Putin. HIMARS strikes were made in the last three minutes of the outgoing year. It turned out to be a good congratulation from the Armed Forces of Ukraine for uninvited guests who came to a neighboring country to kill their inhabitants.
But the Armed Forces of Ukraine inflict pinpoint strikes on concentrations of enemy troops and equipment every day. On January 14, Putin was given the number of dead and missing in the war in Ukraine: there are already more than 160 thousand people. Of these, the regular army of Russia lost 115,223 military personnel, private military companies 28,163, and the National Guard - 6,089 people.

Some news from "a great country with a stable economy, which is not affected by sanctions in any way"

- Mishustin instructed to cover the costs of the war in Ukraine by reducing the cost of medicine with education as well as the introduction of a one-time fee (author's note - yes, like the mobilization which has ended and will no longer exist, but the agendas have been printed and distributed already) for fertilizer and coal producers , according to Bloomberg, which had at its disposal the corresponding order of Deputy Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, given to officials in December 2022.

- Russia enters the new year with the most "fabulous" budget in 20 years - almost no one believes in its execution. Oil and gas revenues are falling, public debt is growing, the reserves that were so shaken during the pandemic are running out. This time, not only ordinary Russians will suffer, but also oligarchs - billionaires will become the main sponsors of military spending. The Kremlin does not spare money for the war, spending on the security forces will grow by as much as 50%, but on healthcare and housing and communal services they will be reduced. Experts believe that the state will have to raise taxes again, and the ruble will continue to decline, which in the long run will lead to higher prices.

- Military spending in 2023 and future years will have to be covered by Russia's main money-box, the National Welfare Fund (NWF).
The government was reluctant to spend the NWF money even in the covid 2020-2021 years, when businesses were waiting for help from the state. But no one is embarrassed to spend on war: by the end of the year (2022), according to the Ministry of Finance, the volume of the fund has decreased from 13.5 trillion rubles to 8.99 trillion rubles.

- Germany from January 1, 2023 COMPLETELY refused oil, gas and coal from the country of terror-Russia! This market is lost to Russia FOREVER !!!

US is both being hurt and benefiting from this conflict at the same time since a lot of things didn't go according to the plan. The best case scenario for US would have been to decrease energy prices so that they don't enter recession themselves but failed to do so which is why the US economy is hurting too even though they reduce its effects by dumping it all on EU. Which is proof that US has no allies, only other countries that they use.

As for the benefit, it is two part. First is destabilizing the world and weakening Russia while US itself is not losing troops since they are fighting Russians through a proxy. And second is their failing military industry that had lost a gigantic portion of the global weapon sales over the past couple of years. When they started the proxy war with Russia, they regained all of that lost profit and more by increasing their prices up to 12 times in some cases and increase the amount of garbage they sell to other countries.

Every war has an impact towards Global Economy so I think only the scale of the war makes the impact bigger or smaller vs global economy. However, the world have been in wars since inception and every zone or every continent has it's conflict zones and I don't think any of them will end anytime soon. It's sad to see people waging war on each other but on the same time , this conflicts have been here hundreds of years before us and most likely they will continue to exist in the next hundreds years.

The impact ? we most likely started to feel it in summer of 2022 and we will keep feeling the impact until 2025 in my opinion as we are yet to see the real impact upon the Global Economy. Will Bitcoin and cryptos be affected by this ? this time they will , because I don't see Bitcoin having a bull run anytime soon because of this global recession that is slowly happening.

in my view, without the sanctions sent by the west to Russia, the economy will recover faster, the global distribution chain does not always go through and originate from Ukraine, so it makes no sense to see the Russo-Ukrainian war as the cause.

this is all the result of Egoism- apologia of the West - Nato who feels rivaled for hegemony and its great influence in the world by Russia and as if Ukraine is part of those who are bound to be protected, what spreads hostility is the West - Nato towards Russia, the decline in the world economy is an act and it's their own fault but it's the responsibility of all of us, so in fact the source of the problem is only the prestige of the European Union and the US.

The introduction of CBDC in theory is very beneficial for an authoritarian state.  The CBDC system allows you to fully control all cash flows of citizens and commercial organizations. 

Also, the CBDC system can potentially completely destroy corruption in the state.  Without cash, it is impossible to give bribes and finance terrorism.  CBDC can function especially effectively in a planned economy (modeled after the late USSR and the modern People's Republic of China). 

However, one must take into account that the United States has historically been a democratic, not a totalitarian country.  The financing of lobbying is permitted by US law, so the fight against corruption is not of paramount importance for this country. 

The CBDC system in the US has ideological opponents that hinder the implementation of this financial system.

Finally the Dutch TTF prices have stabilized at 3 digits. Currently natural gas is being traded at $749 per thousand cubic meters, which is almost 75% lower than the peak levels that were reached a few months ago. Weather in the European Union has remained relatively warm, with some of the cities recording record winter temperatures. Closure of many of the heavy industries, that consumed natural gas also helped to reduce the demand. BTW, the Brent crude prices are also down, and now trading at $79.46 per barrel. This is mostly due to COVID pandemic in China and not due to the Russo-Ukraine war.

According to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the number of those mobilized from Russia in the barracks of the school in Makeevka on New Year's Eve is about 400 killed and 300 wounded. From the impact of four HIMARS, not even the walls remained. According to information, the invaders were driven there to watch Putin's New Year's greetings. At the same time, they received good congratulations from the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

However, on the morning of January 5, the baton of Makiivka was intercepted by Gavrilovka II of the Kherson region, where the Ukrainian army conveyed fiery greetings to another thousand invaders. The situation is almost the same. Over the past five days, the Russian military has been concentrating forces to Gavrilovka Vtoroy of the Kalanchaksky district of the Kherson region and they have settled in the hostel of the Tavrida plant in an amount of up to 1,000 people. Grads were left on the territory and were soon to move closer to the front line.
As a result of the strike, the Armed Forces of Ukraine destroyed 20 officers, at least 100 wounded, more than 800 invaders "disappeared" under the rubble of the building.

Now the entire Russian grouping of troops in the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, a hundred kilometers deep, is pressed against the Sea of ​​Azov and is under the fire control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Russia does not want to retreat here, because this is a land corridor to the previously annexed Crimean peninsula, and therefore, on the contrary, it is pulling more "live meat" there. As a result of inept command, the Russians are and will continue to suffer heavy losses, since they will not be able to hold this occupied territory.