Topic: The impact of Russian and Ukrain war on world economy - page 20. (Read 13382 times)

The bulk of Armed Forces of Ukraine is no longer Ukrainian at this point, it consists of some "unofficial" NATO troops and takfiri terrorists transferred from Syria to fight Russia. Besides, a large part of Ukraine population has already fled the country. Considering how they've shown to fight for a decade in Syria, I agree that Ukraine can keep it up against Russia.

The bulk of Armed Forces of Ukraine is no longer Ukrainian at this point, it consists of some "unofficial" NATO troops and takfiri terrorists transferred from Syria to fight Russia. Besides, a large part of Ukraine population has already fled the country. Considering how they've shown to fight for a decade in Syria, I agree that Ukraine can keep it up against Russia.

You are right about NATO (more specifically Europe) not being able to afford this war for that long but US is calling the shots, not Europe, nor Zelensky specially since he is just a pawn. And US doesn't want this war to end this soon or the benefits of it would stop too.
So the real question is how much longer Europe can withstand de-industrialization and how much longer they can violently suppress the mass economical and anti-NATO protests before they change their position.

The Americans have been asking Zelensky to withdraw from Bakhmut for many weeks now. But he is adamant that he can reconquer all the lost regions. Ukraine has enough manpower to sustain the war for another 3-4 years. They are a country of close to 40 million people (after subtracting those who are residing in areas controlled by Russia). 1,000 KIA per day would mean 1 million losses in 3 years. It is something they can afford at least theoretically. But I am not sure whether the NATO would be interested in prolonging the conflict for so long. NATO weapon supplies are not infinite, and in due time there will be growing opposition to the spending on this war.

I am not sure how accurate this is. From social media, I get an impression that mercenaries who are fighting on the Ukrainian side (mostly Poles and Americans) have dwindled significantly during the past few months. Only the "Georgian Legion" remains active in the frontline cities. And I am yet to find any reports about large-scale activity from the Syrian mercenaries.

I am not sure how accurate this is. From social media, I get an impression that mercenaries who are fighting on the Ukrainian side (mostly Poles and Americans) have dwindled significantly during the past few months. Only the "Georgian Legion" remains active in the frontline cities. And I am yet to find any reports about large-scale activity from the Syrian mercenaries. BTW, a few hours back Prigozhin of PMC Wagner posted a video from Bakhmut, where he paraded a few under-age children fighting for Ukraine. He accused Zelensky of forcing children to fight the war, as the number of active professional soldiers declined due to deaths and injuries.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1631609003372343297

The bulk of Armed Forces of Ukraine is no longer Ukrainian at this point, it consists of some "unofficial" NATO troops and takfiri terrorists transferred from Syria to fight Russia. Besides, a large part of Ukraine population has already fled the country. Considering how they've shown to fight for a decade in Syria, I agree that Ukraine can keep it up against Russia.

Under conditions of free trade and an open market, Russia had no chance to develop its own economy, and it is precisely the closing of borders thanks to sanctions that gives Russia a chance to become economically self-sufficient and throw off the suffocating "Parshev's noose" from its neck

For Russia, the collapse of the USSR in the economic sense was not a tragedy, but a boon. Fool who does not understand this.

The Americans have been asking Zelensky to withdraw from Bakhmut for many weeks now. But he is adamant that he can reconquer all the lost regions. Ukraine has enough manpower to sustain the war for another 3-4 years. They are a country of close to 40 million people (after subtracting those who are residing in areas controlled by Russia). 1,000 KIA per day would mean 1 million losses in 3 years. It is something they can afford at least theoretically. But I am not sure whether the NATO would be interested in prolonging the conflict for so long. NATO weapon supplies are not infinite, and in due time there will be growing opposition to the spending on this war.

Looking at what is happening, I will say such an amazing thing at once - but there are positive changes in everything that is happening! Yes Yes ! Now I will explain. This does not apply to any specific countries, this is a general picture.

The whole world, in recent decades, began to suffer from laziness and infantilism. The West "was tired of working, the East decided that it was possible" the West gave it the "magic wand" of technology, some countries decided that after 9/11 they could continue to engage in terror, violence, and the West would not react, and most international structures and institutions simply money-burners and structures that, according to the protocol, "express concern" on any event, but do not take any steps. Moreover, these international structures began to quietly earn money on international "assistance" programs. And so it would continue to degrade, degenerate, and rotten ... if not for the last inadequate trick of Russia.

The world shook. More precisely, in 2014, the world turned a blind eye to this, they say, it's okay, the main thing is that we live quietly and calmly. And then the year 2022 came, when the Kremlin terrorists realized that, in fact, impunity reigned in the world, and for some, cowardice and a huge dependence on the "Kremlin that feeds them" ... The protective trigger worked at the first stage in several countries. The United States and Britain - as "senior" observers of the world, and Poland, Latvia, Liva, Estonia and some other European countries - who realized that it was time to remember such aggression and occupation by the USSR. And they began to help Ukraine. And then so many "pustules" were revealed, "tensions" arose in so many international relations, so many had their eyes opened that the world began to return to a normal, albeit not so comfortable, state. One of the reasons - it turned out that global and deep integration with some countries / regimes - is fraught with real and global risks. And that it is worth reconsidering our views on relations with them, on the indulgences that they have been given for the last 20-30 years, and in general on international mechanisms that, in general, have deprived the world of immunity from idiots and criminals. Yes, these changes will not be fast, but they are already running. And back already, no one will return in the near future, remembering the "lessons of history" of the beginning of the 21st century.

The point is not the possible plans of the United States and NATO in relation to Ukraine and Russia. No matter how they plan there, but determining is whether Ukraine and Russia want to join the European Union and NATO. Ukraine, of course, wants to, planned to achieve its actions to join these structures. But Russia, on the contrary, is opposed to both the European Union and NATO. She generally considers NATO to be her enemy number one since the USSR. Russia is an arrogant country and believes that it should not join someone, but should join it. Moreover, in the issue of joining others there, they always counted on coercion and gross power. We see it now in relation to Ukrainians and other neighboring countries. Russia has already made its choice and at the current stage in civilized states no one is waiting for it.

The point is not the possible plans of the United States and NATO in relation to Ukraine and Russia. No matter how they plan there, but determining is whether Ukraine and Russia want to join the European Union and NATO. Ukraine, of course, wants to, planned to achieve its actions to join these structures. But Russia, on the contrary, is opposed to both the European Union and NATO. She generally considers NATO to be her enemy number one since the USSR. Russia is an arrogant country and believes that it should not join someone, but should join it. Moreover, in the issue of joining others there, they always counted on coercion and gross power. We see it now in relation to Ukrainians and other neighboring countries. Russia has already made its choice and at the current stage in civilized states no one is waiting for it.

If sanctions are useful for Russia's economic development, and open borders only weaken it, then in 5-10 years we expect an economic miracle in this country. After all, even after so many years, if the sanctions are lifted, their consequences will be felt for many more years. Then Russia will become as strong as the current North Korea, which is also under certain sanctions and has been a closed country for many years. The strength of North Korea even allows you to claim that they can help a weakened Russia in the supply of military equipment for the war with Ukraine. True, in North Korea itself, a shortage of food is now especially evident, as well as other benefits of civilization. However, her government also claims that the well-being of the people of North Korea is constantly improving. Self-love is a big thing. Russia will soon have to deal with this as well.

Sanctions are not useless; on the contrary, they are very useful for Russia. Under conditions of free trade and an open market, Russia had no chance to develop its own economy, and it is precisely the closing of borders thanks to sanctions that gives Russia a chance to become economically self-sufficient and throw off the suffocating "Parshev's noose" from its neck. When two-thirds of your territory is permafrost, globalization and transparent borders become unprofitable. Russia becomes stronger in the presence of strong external threats and weakens when surrounded by friends. For Russia, the collapse of the USSR in the economic sense was not a tragedy, but a boon. Fool who does not understand this.

This conflict has already led to a lot of humanitarian crisis, with millions of people affected by the fighting and displacement. The cost of providing aid and rebuilding affected areas has an impact on the global economy already! How long will all these loss of lives and properties prevail? Some countries are finding it hard to carter for displaced persons especially Ukrainians.

Another news from "great russia", "whose economy is stable, and sanctions are useless"

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In my opinion, back in the 1990s, the US and Europe should have presented a plan for the long-term integration of all the countries of the former USSR into the world community.  This applies to both Ukraine and Russia.  Both of these countries were to be admitted to the European Union and NATO (North Atlantic Alliance).  At the same time, a roadmap was to be drawn up for the entry of these countries into these organizations.  

Both Ukraine and Russia are two big fragments of one big country that no longer exists.  

And you can’t say to one country - we will help you integrate into the world community, and to another country to declare - but we do not want to know you, go to hell!  Solve your own problems!  Build your sovereignty however you want, be friends with whoever you want - you can be friends with the Chinese, you can be friends with Iran, you can be friends with North Korea, you can be friends with the Devil himself.  Your fate does not interest us, from the word "absolutely".  

This is a wrong position if a country positions itself as  the supreme (most important) integrator of all world processes.

The Americans have been asking Zelensky to withdraw from Bakhmut for many weeks now. But he is adamant that he can reconquer all the lost regions. Ukraine has enough manpower to sustain the war for another 3-4 years. They are a country of close to 40 million people (after subtracting those who are residing in areas controlled by Russia). 1,000 KIA per day would mean 1 million losses in 3 years. It is something they can afford at least theoretically. But I am not sure whether the NATO would be interested in prolonging the conflict for so long. NATO weapon supplies are not infinite, and in due time there will be growing opposition to the spending on this war.

The war is definitely shifting away from Eastern Ukraine as it is evident from the withdrawal from Bakhmut and the transfer of forces to South West. I try not to predict what's going to happen since the information coming out from this war is usually manipulated and is more of a propaganda from both sides.

Perhaps they are still in operation.  But the possible capture of Transnistria by Ukrainian troops will not change anything in the course of hostilities.

The capture of Odessa, in my opinion, is a very unlikely event.