Topic: The impact of Russian and Ukrain war on world economy - page 21. (Read 13382 times)

They should have but didn't. And there are many reasons.
Starting with the fact that Russia has always presented itself as supposedly the "heir of the USSR", and they say that it is she who represents the interests of all "smaller brothers". And many have accepted this position. Someone because of corruption interests, someone was simply not interested in bothering with "small countries", someone simply had their own interests that had to be solved either by themselves or by the hands of Russia ... Although in recent years, for example, Ukraine's integration into the EU and the world economy has intensified. I will tell you this fact - until 2014, many competitive Ukrainian products were sold to the world ... through Russian companies or under their control. At the same time, direct contact with the EU and other countries was extremely difficult. But for example, in 2017 I personally signed a direct contract with a company from the EU to provide IT solutions, and I still work with them. The whole procedure of registration and registration took me only a few days - and no difficulties!
And the scheme of work "through Russia" and "under the strict guidance of Russia" - this is still going on, but in other "brotherly" Russia republics. Although all of them have already understood that Russia, in fact, "sucks" out of them for a penny products that are competitive or necessary for Russia itself, and sells them exclusively.
Have you read the documentation of the "Customs Union"? Highly recommend. In fact, it is openly written there - Russia controls everything in the union, and where it does not control, it makes decisions - to allow or prohibit!

I don't quite agree with your position.  

In my opinion, back in the 1990s, the US and Europe should have presented a plan for the long-term integration of all the countries of the former USSR into the world community.  This applies to both Ukraine and Russia.  Both of these countries were to be admitted to the European Union and NATO (North Atlantic Alliance).  At the same time, a roadmap was to be drawn up for the entry of these countries into these organizations.  

Both Ukraine and Russia are two big fragments of one big country that no longer exists.  

And you can’t say to one country - we will help you integrate into the world community, and to another country to declare - but we do not want to know you, go to hell!  Solve your own problems!  Build your sovereignty however you want, be friends with whoever you want - you can be friends with the Chinese, you can be friends with Iran, you can be friends with North Korea, you can be friends with the Devil himself.  Your fate does not interest us, from the word "absolutely".  

This is a wrong position if a country positions itself as  the supreme (most important) integrator of all world processes.

That's the point. They officially present something that they call peace plan while all those points they mentioned have been discussed all the time anyway. But China might not be perceived differently by the broader public as the peace initiators nobody in world politics listens to. If they ever decide to invade Taiwan I am curioss what they will call their attack. Russia decided to go with special military operation and avoided to use the word war, China will approach that similarly if they decide to attack.

This peace plan could be a piece of the puzzle of their global propaganda that is one day supposed to help them justify their own attacks on foreign territory. They are also closely observing in how far the US economy is affected by this war, how many resources the US is tying up in Europe and whether they are still strong enough to defend Taiwan when the confrontation should escalate.

Looking at what is happening, I will say such an amazing thing at once - but there are positive changes in everything that is happening! Yes Yes ! Now I will explain. This does not apply to any specific countries, this is a general picture.

The whole world, in recent decades, began to suffer from laziness and infantilism. The West "was tired of working, the East decided that it was possible" the West gave it the "magic wand" of technology, some countries decided that after 9/11 they could continue to engage in terror, violence, and the West would not react, and most international structures and institutions simply money-burners and structures that, according to the protocol, "express concern" on any event, but do not take any steps. Moreover, these international structures began to quietly earn money on international "assistance" programs. And so it would continue to degrade, degenerate, and rotten ... if not for the last inadequate trick of Russia.

The world shook. More precisely, in 2014, the world turned a blind eye to this, they say, it's okay, the main thing is that we live quietly and calmly. And then the year 2022 came, when the Kremlin terrorists realized that, in fact, impunity reigned in the world, and for some, cowardice and a huge dependence on the "Kremlin that feeds them" ... The protective trigger worked at the first stage in several countries. The United States and Britain - as "senior" observers of the world, and Poland, Latvia, Liva, Estonia and some other European countries - who realized that it was time to remember such aggression and occupation by the USSR. And they began to help Ukraine. And then so many "pustules" were revealed, "tensions" arose in so many international relations, so many had their eyes opened that the world began to return to a normal, albeit not so comfortable, state. One of the reasons - it turned out that global and deep integration with some countries / regimes - is fraught with real and global risks. And that it is worth reconsidering our views on relations with them, on the indulgences that they have been given for the last 20-30 years, and in general on international mechanisms that, in general, have deprived the world of immunity from idiots and criminals. Yes, these changes will not be fast, but they are already running. And back already, no one will return in the near future, remembering the "lessons of history" of the beginning of the 21st century.

In my opinion, now there are no conditions for the start of peace negotiations. 

Peace negotiations are possible only in a situation where both sides of the conflict are unable to continue hostilities (or in a situation where it is required to sign an act of surrender of one of the parties). 

China is not interested in the growth of general instability in the world.  China is accustomed to long-term planning for the development of its economy. 

At the same time, China always has pre-calculated options for responding to any unexpected event.  It is difficult to say exactly what global goals China pursued by providing this peace plan.

China will push for a ceasefire with current line of contact as the permanent political boundary between Russia and Ukraine. But Russia will not agree unless it gets assurance that Ukraine will never join NATO. And Ukraine is definitely not going to agree to any of this, as they want all the territories back. My guess is that Xi knows very well that it is impossible to get a deal. He just want to show that China is willing to play the role of peacemaker (similar to the drama done by Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of Turkey a few months back).

Now China presented its "plan" to support negotiations, their peace plan. But those twelve points are full of ambiguity especially when China says the sovereignty of all countries is to be respected. Well, but they argue that Taiwan is actually Chinese territory, then they also leave a door open for themselves.

China could do so much more, but they don't as they like to see how the rest of the world might get split and Putin is betting on time running by now. The support for Ukraine is on a pretty high level and the US hard right wing already said that they would immediately stop financial support.

China's role is weird, but perhaps Putin wouldn't even listen to Xi Jinping, but China is well positioned now to get fossil fuels at extremely cheap prices.

This conflict has already led to a lot of humanitarian crisis, with millions of people affected by the fighting and displacement. The cost of providing aid and rebuilding affected areas has an impact on the global economy already! How long will all these loss of lives and properties prevail? Some countries are finding it hard to carter for displaced persons especially Ukrainians.

There are serious implications on the global economy everytime international conflicts like this are stirred. Influences and favors are lifted or placed from one end to another, strengthening one's economy while weakening the other, if for example it is a country that exports valuable commodity, which in this case is oil, they can also cut the whole world off of their supply seriously damaging the economy and causing problems in the prices of stuff, which is primarily the reason of today's inflation rate soaring high globally.

There are effects on the economy everytime something like this happens, but what most people dismiss and what is the biggest threat is the fact that this could escalate to something worse, as it stands today, Russia is eager to show the world that they should be feared, this is going to have ramifications in the future which will not be pretty.

Transnistria is a very small part of Moldova.  

This territory has no strategic value.  

At one time, a significant part of the industrial enterprises of Moldova (the former Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic) was located on the territory of Transnistria.  These were light industry enterprises, dairies, and meat processing enterprises.  

Perhaps they are still in operation.  But the possible capture of Transnistria by Ukrainian troops will not change anything in the course of hostilities.

The capture of Odessa, in my opinion, is a very unlikely event.  Especially given the impossibility of landing an amphibious assault.  So far, we are seeing a classic trench warfare model of the First World War of 2014-2018 or the Iran-Iraq military conflict.

This is all very bad...

I think the more weapons support Ukraine gets from NATO supported countries, the situation of Ukraine will be more  worse .
Moreover, the German people in Germany protested about the announcement of the tanks provided by Germany because they realize that the longer the war was prolonged,  the economic condition of the whole world would be more worse 
Moreover, it is impossible for Ukraine to defeat Russia in terms of geographical location and military power, and the other countries that are supporting them are actually showmen. I think that to keep the economic situation of the world right, their two countries should come to an agreement and suspend the war.  And stop the activities of countries that are inciting Ukraine to war.

Russia is a major supplier of world energy resources and the Ukraine-Russia war has had a significant impact on energy prices. Since the start of the war, international markets have seen fluctuations in oil and gas prices. Russia is a major exporter to the world economy and since the start of the war many countries have reduced or stopped trade with Russia. This has had a particularly severe impact on countries close to Russia, such as European countries.

The war has created volatility in financial markets. The fact that Russia faced international sanctions and the country's trade declined had a significant impact on Russian markets and thus on global markets. In addition, the tourism industry in Ukraine and Russia has declined drastically since the start of the war.

I've got a feeling that this war is going to change dramatically and possibly even conclude soon. Specially since the West basically humiliated China and the Chinese peaceful proposal to end the conflict by kicking both Russia and NATO out of Ukraine. This possibly forced Chinese to finally pick a side which we could see for sure in the near future. But also:

- On one side we have Ukraine that is planning on invading Moldova and basically wipe out everyone in Eastern region known as Transnistria just because they may be pro-Russia!
- On the other side we have Russia that is eyeing Odessa and want to occupy the last remaining connection Ukraine has to the sea.

If these two things happen, Ukraine will lose a large portion of its usefulness for NATO. This can significantly change NATO's participation in this proxy war. Or at the very least change the face of this war.

USA is accelerating the war. While Russian parliament is suspending the Start War Treaty - Beijing meeting Moscow.
Ukraine meeting USA and top 9 leaders. There is a warning that the WW3 might begin.

The support for Ukraine will keep growing because of the support from NATO countries. Ukraine isnpart of the NATO and they had been the one that had been sending weapons to Ukraine to fight Russiam soldiers. Putin is aware of this and this had been the reasons why Russian soldiers are finding it very difficult to win the war to silent Ukraine.
 This war may not end now because this is an avenue for the U.S to fight against Russia indirectly. US had been the one that had been donating the largest weapons and equipments for Ukraine to fight Russia.

Its been a year now. Many super power are showing support to Ukraine - but in reality they are just trying to weaken Russia
Russia will not let any super power attack them or weaken them

Poland's current situation cannot be compared to any of its previous wars in which neighboring countries fought in the past.
Poland has been witnessing an economic boom for years, which is what supported it in the Russia-Ukraine war to receive the largest proportion of the displaced Ukrainians (3 million). This put it in direct confrontation with Russia, which placed it on the list of the next countries in which it will carry out military missions after completing the mission in Ukraine. At the same time, the countries of the European axis and America are satisfied with incitement and do not provide them with any economic or logistical support to confront the potential threat of Russia.

Russian parliament to suspend Start war treaty - While China supporting Russia and all the NATO allies on the other side are trying to put more senctions on Russia
In the war of super power - Ukraine will be destroyed

The war between Russia and Ukraine is a disaster. Now, unfortunately, the closeness of these two peoples is denied, but for centuries they interacted well with each other.

There were a lot of mixed families in the country, where one spouse was Russian by nationality, and the other was Ukrainian. There are many citizens in Russia with Ukrainian surnames, and in Ukraine there are many citizens with Russian surnames.

In the USSR after Stalin, all the General Secretaries of the USSR came from the territory of Ukraine (Khrushchev, Brezhnev, Chernenko, Andropov, Gorbachev).

This is not surprising. The largest regional communist party in the USSR was the Ukrainian Communist Party. In fact, the Ukrainians were the political elite of the USSR.

Since the time of Peter the Great (this is the end of the 17th, the beginning of the 18th centuries), in all the wars waged by the Russian Empire, and then the USSR, Ukrainians participated on their side, and this gave them additional power, since Ukrainians have always been distinguished by resourcefulness and the conduct of non-standard military actions and free spirit of Zaporizhsky Cossacks. Now, for the first time, Russia has launched a large-scale war against Ukraine at the state level, and it cannot and is not able to win this war, despite more than a tenfold superiority in manpower and equipment.
Some countries, such as Poland, may be ready to support Ukraine with their regular troops, but Ukraine has not yet asked for such help and, most likely, will manage on its own. True, in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine there are volunteers from various countries, mainly from the CIS countries, who, with the help of Ukraine's victory, want to overthrow their anti-people regimes.