Topic: The impact of Russian and Ukrain war on world economy - page 24. (Read 13382 times)

Yes, both countries have reasons for ending these senseless hostilities. But the whole problem is that Russia is an authoritarian country and all power there is concentrated in the hands of Putin, for whom not achieving his crazy and absurd goals means defeat both as a politician and as an individual. Russia does not like weak rulers and will remove him anyway if he loses. He understands this and tries to drag out the time of defeat as long as possible, throwing new hundreds of thousands of his citizens into the furnace of war, who mean nothing to Putin. As long as the Russians will meekly obey and go to the slaughter in Ukraine, Putin, already hoping more for a miracle, will stay in power. Here, either the people will kill Putin, or Putin will continue to exterminate his people in this war, because the Ukrainians have no other choice but to defend their freedom and independence.

Both sides also have reasons to stop fighting. Russia has lost and is continuously losing on a daily basis a lot of men, material and resources as well. And with the numerous sanctions currently imposed on them by the west and it’s allies, they’re are losing far much money than they seem to be benefiting at the moment.

Ukraine also isn’t benefiting anything as they’ve got to be constantly on their toes to be able to counter and repel any offensive from the Russians.
I’m curious, do you think the Ukrainians are getting cold hard cash in form of aid from the west and it’s allies? I don’t think so. They’re getting lots of new equipment technology and aid that’s is worth that amount. I don’t think they’re giving them tens of billions in cash.
Each side has also taken a great deal of loss and both sides has all the reasons to stop fighting.

^^^  I agree with most of what pooya87 posted above. And it is true that national debt for Iran didn't increased by much as a result of the war. But it can't be denied that this war was horribly expensive, and it put both these countries backwards by at least 2-3 decades. And one thing that I always notice is that whenever a war occurs, the vast majority of the casualties will be among young men, especially in the 18 to 24 age group. This is true for all the recent conflicts, including the Russo-Ukraine war, Karabakh war and the Ethiopian civil conflict. This in turn will have a negative impact on the economy and social structure of the countries involved for at least half a century.

Full scale invasion of Iran in 1980 is not even a tiny bit similar to full scale invasion of Ukraine

In the 1980's Iran was still chaotic after the revolution in 1979. Iran had no allies, no military, no weapons, no money, a very new government, no high ranking military officer with any kind of experience, no defenses, ...
Compared with Ukraine, they have the help of half the world, have unlimited funding and weapons are pouring into Ukraine on top of all the military, intelligence and logistical support Ukraine is receiving.

Iraq (the invader) on the other hand had literary everything; Saddam was being funded by half a dozen rich Arabs with bottomless pockets, he was receiving all types of weapons and ammunition from more than 60 countries, he received and used everything except nukes (for example chemical and viral weapons he kept receiving from Germany and US), he had full support of United States and Soviet Union and Europe (help includes logistical, funds, arms and intelligence), ...
Compared with Russia that is invading Ukraine alone!

This is one of the reasons why it lasted 8 years (not 10 BTW).

P.S. As far as the data shows to this day the largest war after World War 2 is still the Iran-Iraq war.

This is not entirely correct. Saddam was in a lot of debt but he still had continues funding granted he continued invading. Iran on the other hand had no debt since as I said Iran was alone and nobody helped Iran to put the country in debt!
Saddam was also receiving weapons nonstop from the Western powers, in fact by the end of the war Iraq had borrowed loads of fighter jets from UK and France alone not to mention the large shipments of missiles received from US and chemical bombs from Germany.

What was different in the final years of that war was Iran the side that were left completely alone and had to become self sufficient and it did. In final years the Iranian air defense was a serious threat to modern Western planes, Iran's drone industry had been created and reached a very good level capable of performing operations in long distances, the Iranian missile industry was built and reached a good level capable of responding to threats and the navy was mastering the unconventional warfare to the point that in the last 2 years of the war Iran was facing multiple navies from Soviet Union to US and UK and was attacking and sinking them left and right in what is known as The Persian Gulf War.

Wrong.
After that war ended, Saddam did the same exact thing and repeated the same exact aggression.
The only difference was that the invasion of Kuwait was not ordered by US whereas invasion of Iran was. Keep in mind that in 1979 the Iranians booted US and their dictator out of the country and this was kind of US revenge.

Additionally US wanted to take control of the oil rich Iran and Iraq both which is why they had plans to invade the loser of the Iran-Iraq war from day one. It's just that by 1990 the past encounters with Iranian military had left a terrible scar on the US military (honorary mention of the stupidest military operation in human history called Eagle Claw on April 1980) so they didn't want the repetition of it so soon. Which is why they invaded Iraq instead which was in a huge debt, had lost the backing of Arabs since Saddam lost the Iran-Iraq war and his military (unlike Iran's) was mostly depending on foreign aid.

From a military invasion of Ukraine will lose, and very large, first of all, Russia.
There was information that representatives of five regions of the Russian Federation at once during the "Post-Russia Forum", which took place on the premises of the European Parliament last Monday, January 30, announced the start of an online referendum on self-determination.

Russians from Kaliningrad (Kenigsberg), St. Petersburg, the Urals, Siberia and Kuban have announced their desire to start the process of territorial, political and economic separation from Moscow. This has also long been expected in Chechnya, Bashkiria and other regions of the Russian Federation.

The initiative group believes that independence will help the inhabitants of these regions achieve economic prosperity, getting rid of the looting by Moscow. In addition, separation from the Russian Federation will be able to save their inhabitants from the fate of becoming cannon fodder for the Kremlin in various wars, while the participants paid special attention to the armed conflict in Ukraine. The start of the online referendum on the self-determination of Russian regions is scheduled for Thursday, February 16, 2023. It should be recalled that Russia without Siberian oil and gas will be a poor second-rate state.
Russia very actively supported the right of Ukraine's regions to self-determination. Let's see how they react to the same right in Russia itself. As always, flood the speeches with the blood of the protesters? So the strength is no longer enough, they all die in Ukraine.

From what I heard, the Russian forces number somewhere around 500,000 in Ukraine. This includes 300,000 who were recently mobilized, 100,000 to 150,000 members of the Russian Armed Forces, 50,000 members of PMC Wagner and 50,000+ members of the separatist armed forces.


The war between Iran and Iraq is the perfect comparison. There is absolutely zero possibility that this war will end anytime soon. Both the sides are indulging in attritionary warfare. NATO is not losing any personnel so they don't care if the battle goes on for a few years more. And the war has become a prestige issue for Putin and he will not back down even if the Russian losses climb to hundreds of thousands.

Not all wars end with the victory of one of the parties to the conflict and the defeat of the other side of the conflict. 

The war between Iran and Iraq can serve as an illustration of this thesis.  This war lasted 10 years and did not end with the victory of one of the parties. 

The opponents were completely exhausted economically and could no longer continue fighting. 

In the future, the state of Iraq tried to continue to pursue an aggressive foreign policy and, as a result, was subjected to a military attack by the United States and the anti-Iraq coalition.  As a result, this state ceased to exist. 

The state of Iran still exists, but religious fundamentalists came to power there, and the country itself functions under very tough international sanctions.

Now both Russia and Ukraine are preparing for decisive offensive actions. It was impossible to advance in late autumn and this warm winter, when the soil was not frozen enough, and there was a lot of moisture and heavy equipment bogged down in the Ukrainian black soil. This is one of the reasons why positional battles have continued on the fronts in recent months. On the other hand, Russia ran out of steam in offensive operations. That approximately 200,000-strong invasion army, which used the best Russian armored vehicles, has already been practically defeated and destroyed in Ukraine. Therefore, in Russia, since the end of September, the population has been mobilized for war, and this is not such a fast process. But the Kremlin is in a hurry to gather more forces and means and launch another attack on Ukraine even before Ukraine receives heavy tanks and other military equipment from civilized countries. Ukraine also uses this time to bleed the enemy with pinpoint strikes. But with the beginning of spring, active hostilities and offensive operations will resume on both sides.

Therefore, it is not a matter of a separate petty benefit. From the preparation and conduct of hostilities this spring on both sides, without exaggeration, the fate of both Ukraine and Russia is being decided.

As things stand, both the sides doesn't have any reason to stop fighting. Russia is benefiting from increased prices on crude oil, natural gas, potash, sunflower oil and wheat, while Ukraine is receiving tens of billions of USD from the Western nations. The war is benefitting the oligarchs on both the sides, and private defense companies such as Boeing and PMC Wagner. The frontline hasn't moved much since Ukraine reconquered Kherson and Kharkiv three months ago. There are static confrontations in Ugledar, Bakhmut and Kreminna.

All wars that have been started will eventually end. The war against Ukraine will end with time and Russia has started it. It has been going on for almost a year, and it is already quite obvious that Russia will be defeated in it. But when it will end, no one knows yet. The active phase of hostilities should end this year. In the spring, when military assistance from other states arrives in Ukraine and when the weather is favorable, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to continue the liberation of the occupied territories of Ukraine. At this time, the Ukrainians will definitely liberate the south of their country and go to the sea and the Crimean peninsula.

But so far, the entire territory of Ukraine continues to be periodically shot through by expensive Russian missiles, of which, according to Ukrainian intelligence, only less than 19 percent remain in Russia.

I speak to a Ukrainian friends of mine. And she told us that their kids are sleeping in fear
And they are still hoping that this war ends soon.
May we see the dawn of the peace to bless all the suffers of the world

Russia causes very great damage to the ecology and economy of Ukraine. The hope that they will have to pay for all the suffering and destruction they have caused to the Ukrainians. But Russia in the war is already fizzling out. If earlier in the east, in order to gradually advance, the Russians used the tactics of a barrage, firing about 50,000 shells per day, capturing almost meters and kilometers of scorched earth, now, on average, about 15,000 shells are fired from artillery per day. Further, they will be even more difficult. Therefore, Putin is looking for weapons and ammunition around the world. The last two days have already shown Iran that helping Russia with weapons will cost them too much.

On Saturday, January 28, the latest report on the irretrievable losses of the Russian army in Ukraine was put on Putin's table. More than 176,000 people are already listed as dead and missing carrying news. Of these, 126,567 losses are the losses of the personnel army of the Russian Federation, 44,012 losses of private military companies and 6,284 employees of the National Guard. The numbers are impressive. In addition, we must also take into account about three times more wounded and it turns out that the losses of the Russians exceeded half a million people. The Russian regular army has practically been destroyed in Ukraine.

If we also take into account the data of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on destroyed military equipment, namely: 3197 tanks, 6366 armored vehicles, 2195 artillery systems, 293 aircraft, 284 helicopters, 453 MLRS, 221 air defense systems, 5037 various auxiliary vehicles, 18 ships and boats, other military equipment , then Russia has problems in all directions.

Hello Dr Beer - how much time does it takes you to write such a length post?
And how much time do you spend on making the comment - are you a full time gamblor?

already so much damage has been made to the world and the Ukraine

Indians are very clever - they know how to extract oil of a person and a country - lol
On the other hand the oil prices in our country are at the peak and the inflation is at 32 %

The Kremlin will also not be able to count on the help of China and India to ease the effects of new sanctions, this time on the import of Russian oil products, which the EU will introduce on February 5. Although China and India buy cheap Russian oil, they will not buy Russian finished fuel because they are exporters of this product. This is reported by the portal "Comments" with reference to the publication Business Insider.

The European Union will impose a ban from February 5 on the import of Russian oil products, including diesel and gasoline. This time, China and India will not come to the aid of Putin. Both countries continued to buy crude oil at reduced prices during the sanctions against the Russian Federation. China and India produce fuel at their own refineries, which can then enter the European market. Therefore, both countries can benefit from a ban on Russian fuel. China and India will have more opportunities for additional agreements on the supply of their own fuel, because Russia will fall out of the market.

Thus, it will be very difficult for Russia to find buyers for its oil products. It is clear that the Russian Federation expects a large loss  and a reduction in production.

Are you again habitually, primitively lying in the hope that someone will believe in this?

For those who are not able to think and analyze, just facts. By the way, HIMARS are not missiles, this is a launcher, remember and do not disgrace yourself anymore But let's get back to the elimination of global illiteracy of some individuals
The main warheads for the HIMARS launcher.
M3X XX - GMLRS - ER GMLRS = this is one family, different modifications.
MGM-164XX ATACMS - various modifications.

This weapon belongs to the class of high-precision, controlled devices for defeating the enemy. Target designation is implemented double - inertial guidance system + GPS. The accuracy of warhead delivery allows both inflicting direct high-precision damage to an object and producing a controlled detonation over an object when a given point is reached. The location error does not exceed within a radius of 2-3 meters.
What I really liked was the process of loading the system! I personally observed - a couple of minutes and a cassette with 6 missiles was installed, target designation - a few more minutes, and the enemy was already a couple of minutes from the gates of hell
 
... it is with the help of such missiles that the Armed Forces of Ukraine with surgical precision cut out the carriers of rashism from our land Without destroying civilian objects, without exposing the population to threats. Right on target. And not like Russian terrorists who fire air defense missiles towards Ukraine, destroying residential buildings with civilians.



Well, about the economy!
News from the "great country", another "success"
- India and China refused to pay more for Russian oil. The Russian government's plans to reduce oil discounts, which have to be given to the few remaining buyers, have run into problems.
The price of Urals, the main brand of Russian oil companies, which accounts for almost 60% of all exports, continues to stay at levels almost half that of Brent.
According to Reuters, when shipped from the port of Primorsk, the cost of Urals in early January was between $39 and $45 per barrel, although Brent cost more than $80.
The rapid fall in Russian oil quotations began in November: from above $70 per barrel, Urals fell to $50, in December prices fell to $40, and in January they went below this mark. According to Argus, a pricing agency used by the Russian government, Urals has been worth no more than $45 in recent days.

And for understanding - this is the price "here and now", and long-term contracts - this is even up to 30% discount. Fraternal India and China simply wiped their feet on the wrinkled skin of Russia, realizing that soon this oil will be distributed just like that


- The government printed out the last reserves: the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank will start selling yuan to patch up the budget Do you know how the yuan appeared in the Russian gold reserves? Sit down, otherwise you will laugh and you may fall Russia has once again decided to "destroy the dollar". And I bought myself yuan instead of a dollar. At China. True, China sold them their yuan for ... American dollars And then it was even funnier - China began to reduce pressure within the economy and devalued the RMB. Yes, he devalued it. On this "best deal" Russia received losses amounting to tens of billions of dollars


- Things in Russia are going so well that the Russian Foreign Ministry asked for direct negotiations with Ukraine without the participation of intermediaries. Once again. Begging for negotiations with Ukraine. Great Russia )) Yes, by the way, you know - after 12 months of a miserable parody of the Fuhrer, he named in turn almost a dozen "Russian real targets in a special military operation in Ukraine", the other day he said a new variant. It turns out now the goals of Russia in Ukraine are a state secret )))

Civilized states have already come to a consensus that it is not worth negotiating with Putin and that Russia should lose the war of conquest it unleashed in Ukraine. Therefore, the United States, European countries and other states will provide Ukraine with as many weapons as it needs to inflict a military defeat on Russia. Twelve states have already agreed to provide Ukraine with heavy tanks, over a thousand armored vehicles and other weapons. Now the issue of providing Ukraine with F-16 fighters is being decided.

Both Republicans and Democrats are now demanding that Biden provide Ukraine with as many weapons as it needs to win, and a large group of 17 specialists from the United States is already arriving in Ukraine to control the use of the transferred weapons.

The armed forces of Ukraine are now capable of inflicting a decisive defeat on Russia and liberating their territories, but Ukraine still lacks weapons. The offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been delayed for the time being both because of this reason and because of bad weather conditions. The loss of Bakhmut and Soledar does not have any significant significance. About 10 thousand people used to live in Soledar, now there are about 500 people there, and this small town is now nothing but ruins, where it is difficult to keep the defense. Therefore, the Armed Forces of Ukraine had already left Soledar and occupied more advantageous, fortified positions prepared in advance behind it on elevated high-rises, at the same time inflicting fire damage on the Russians in this area. Bakhmut has been held by the Armed Forces of Ukraine for eight months, for which it is even called a fortress. But in general, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are now ready to attack, and one of the most promising directions for the offensive is the south, in order to cut Russia's land corridor to the occupied Crimea.

From this month onwards, it will get tricky. GOP has a simple majority in the United States House of Representatives. And furthermore, in order to win the speaker election, McCarthy had to enter in to a compromise deal with the conservative Republicans and he will not be able to support bipartisan measures. Sending military aid to Ukraine will be difficult for Biden, in cases where House approval is required. GOP is not as excited as the Democrats, to spend tax payer money on Ukraine. If the Ukrainians lose major cities such as Bakhmut and Soledar, it will get even more complicated. 

Yes, the US has announced a new security assistance fund for Ukraine these countries have come forward to make important contributions in support of Ukraine. But for this we will stand by Ukraine until Russia alone stops the ongoing war in Ukraine as long as necessary, I will provide assistance to Ukraine. Where the Russia Ukraine war has plunged the entire world economy into a major crisis, if the United States takes such a role, it can change the course of events.