Topic: The impact of Russian and Ukrain war on world economy - page 24. (Read 13245 times)

From what I heard, the Russian forces number somewhere around 500,000 in Ukraine. This includes 300,000 who were recently mobilized, 100,000 to 150,000 members of the Russian Armed Forces, 50,000 members of PMC Wagner and 50,000+ members of the separatist armed forces.


The war between Iran and Iraq is the perfect comparison. There is absolutely zero possibility that this war will end anytime soon. Both the sides are indulging in attritionary warfare. NATO is not losing any personnel so they don't care if the battle goes on for a few years more. And the war has become a prestige issue for Putin and he will not back down even if the Russian losses climb to hundreds of thousands.

Not all wars end with the victory of one of the parties to the conflict and the defeat of the other side of the conflict. 

The war between Iran and Iraq can serve as an illustration of this thesis.  This war lasted 10 years and did not end with the victory of one of the parties. 

The opponents were completely exhausted economically and could no longer continue fighting. 

In the future, the state of Iraq tried to continue to pursue an aggressive foreign policy and, as a result, was subjected to a military attack by the United States and the anti-Iraq coalition.  As a result, this state ceased to exist. 

The state of Iran still exists, but religious fundamentalists came to power there, and the country itself functions under very tough international sanctions.

Now both Russia and Ukraine are preparing for decisive offensive actions. It was impossible to advance in late autumn and this warm winter, when the soil was not frozen enough, and there was a lot of moisture and heavy equipment bogged down in the Ukrainian black soil. This is one of the reasons why positional battles have continued on the fronts in recent months. On the other hand, Russia ran out of steam in offensive operations. That approximately 200,000-strong invasion army, which used the best Russian armored vehicles, has already been practically defeated and destroyed in Ukraine. Therefore, in Russia, since the end of September, the population has been mobilized for war, and this is not such a fast process. But the Kremlin is in a hurry to gather more forces and means and launch another attack on Ukraine even before Ukraine receives heavy tanks and other military equipment from civilized countries. Ukraine also uses this time to bleed the enemy with pinpoint strikes. But with the beginning of spring, active hostilities and offensive operations will resume on both sides.

Therefore, it is not a matter of a separate petty benefit. From the preparation and conduct of hostilities this spring on both sides, without exaggeration, the fate of both Ukraine and Russia is being decided.

As things stand, both the sides doesn't have any reason to stop fighting. Russia is benefiting from increased prices on crude oil, natural gas, potash, sunflower oil and wheat, while Ukraine is receiving tens of billions of USD from the Western nations. The war is benefitting the oligarchs on both the sides, and private defense companies such as Boeing and PMC Wagner. The frontline hasn't moved much since Ukraine reconquered Kherson and Kharkiv three months ago. There are static confrontations in Ugledar, Bakhmut and Kreminna.

All wars that have been started will eventually end. The war against Ukraine will end with time and Russia has started it. It has been going on for almost a year, and it is already quite obvious that Russia will be defeated in it. But when it will end, no one knows yet. The active phase of hostilities should end this year. In the spring, when military assistance from other states arrives in Ukraine and when the weather is favorable, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to continue the liberation of the occupied territories of Ukraine. At this time, the Ukrainians will definitely liberate the south of their country and go to the sea and the Crimean peninsula.

But so far, the entire territory of Ukraine continues to be periodically shot through by expensive Russian missiles, of which, according to Ukrainian intelligence, only less than 19 percent remain in Russia.

I speak to a Ukrainian friends of mine. And she told us that their kids are sleeping in fear
And they are still hoping that this war ends soon.
May we see the dawn of the peace to bless all the suffers of the world

Russia causes very great damage to the ecology and economy of Ukraine. The hope that they will have to pay for all the suffering and destruction they have caused to the Ukrainians. But Russia in the war is already fizzling out. If earlier in the east, in order to gradually advance, the Russians used the tactics of a barrage, firing about 50,000 shells per day, capturing almost meters and kilometers of scorched earth, now, on average, about 15,000 shells are fired from artillery per day. Further, they will be even more difficult. Therefore, Putin is looking for weapons and ammunition around the world. The last two days have already shown Iran that helping Russia with weapons will cost them too much.

On Saturday, January 28, the latest report on the irretrievable losses of the Russian army in Ukraine was put on Putin's table. More than 176,000 people are already listed as dead and missing carrying news. Of these, 126,567 losses are the losses of the personnel army of the Russian Federation, 44,012 losses of private military companies and 6,284 employees of the National Guard. The numbers are impressive. In addition, we must also take into account about three times more wounded and it turns out that the losses of the Russians exceeded half a million people. The Russian regular army has practically been destroyed in Ukraine.

If we also take into account the data of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on destroyed military equipment, namely: 3197 tanks, 6366 armored vehicles, 2195 artillery systems, 293 aircraft, 284 helicopters, 453 MLRS, 221 air defense systems, 5037 various auxiliary vehicles, 18 ships and boats, other military equipment , then Russia has problems in all directions.

Hello Dr Beer - how much time does it takes you to write such a length post?
And how much time do you spend on making the comment - are you a full time gamblor?

already so much damage has been made to the world and the Ukraine

Indians are very clever - they know how to extract oil of a person and a country - lol
On the other hand the oil prices in our country are at the peak and the inflation is at 32 %

The Kremlin will also not be able to count on the help of China and India to ease the effects of new sanctions, this time on the import of Russian oil products, which the EU will introduce on February 5. Although China and India buy cheap Russian oil, they will not buy Russian finished fuel because they are exporters of this product. This is reported by the portal "Comments" with reference to the publication Business Insider.

The European Union will impose a ban from February 5 on the import of Russian oil products, including diesel and gasoline. This time, China and India will not come to the aid of Putin. Both countries continued to buy crude oil at reduced prices during the sanctions against the Russian Federation. China and India produce fuel at their own refineries, which can then enter the European market. Therefore, both countries can benefit from a ban on Russian fuel. China and India will have more opportunities for additional agreements on the supply of their own fuel, because Russia will fall out of the market.

Thus, it will be very difficult for Russia to find buyers for its oil products. It is clear that the Russian Federation expects a large loss  and a reduction in production.

Are you again habitually, primitively lying in the hope that someone will believe in this?

For those who are not able to think and analyze, just facts. By the way, HIMARS are not missiles, this is a launcher, remember and do not disgrace yourself anymore But let's get back to the elimination of global illiteracy of some individuals
The main warheads for the HIMARS launcher.
M3X XX - GMLRS - ER GMLRS = this is one family, different modifications.
MGM-164XX ATACMS - various modifications.

This weapon belongs to the class of high-precision, controlled devices for defeating the enemy. Target designation is implemented double - inertial guidance system + GPS. The accuracy of warhead delivery allows both inflicting direct high-precision damage to an object and producing a controlled detonation over an object when a given point is reached. The location error does not exceed within a radius of 2-3 meters.
What I really liked was the process of loading the system! I personally observed - a couple of minutes and a cassette with 6 missiles was installed, target designation - a few more minutes, and the enemy was already a couple of minutes from the gates of hell
 
... it is with the help of such missiles that the Armed Forces of Ukraine with surgical precision cut out the carriers of rashism from our land Without destroying civilian objects, without exposing the population to threats. Right on target. And not like Russian terrorists who fire air defense missiles towards Ukraine, destroying residential buildings with civilians.



Well, about the economy!
News from the "great country", another "success"
- India and China refused to pay more for Russian oil. The Russian government's plans to reduce oil discounts, which have to be given to the few remaining buyers, have run into problems.
The price of Urals, the main brand of Russian oil companies, which accounts for almost 60% of all exports, continues to stay at levels almost half that of Brent.
According to Reuters, when shipped from the port of Primorsk, the cost of Urals in early January was between $39 and $45 per barrel, although Brent cost more than $80.
The rapid fall in Russian oil quotations began in November: from above $70 per barrel, Urals fell to $50, in December prices fell to $40, and in January they went below this mark. According to Argus, a pricing agency used by the Russian government, Urals has been worth no more than $45 in recent days.

And for understanding - this is the price "here and now", and long-term contracts - this is even up to 30% discount. Fraternal India and China simply wiped their feet on the wrinkled skin of Russia, realizing that soon this oil will be distributed just like that


- The government printed out the last reserves: the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank will start selling yuan to patch up the budget Do you know how the yuan appeared in the Russian gold reserves? Sit down, otherwise you will laugh and you may fall Russia has once again decided to "destroy the dollar". And I bought myself yuan instead of a dollar. At China. True, China sold them their yuan for ... American dollars And then it was even funnier - China began to reduce pressure within the economy and devalued the RMB. Yes, he devalued it. On this "best deal" Russia received losses amounting to tens of billions of dollars


- Things in Russia are going so well that the Russian Foreign Ministry asked for direct negotiations with Ukraine without the participation of intermediaries. Once again. Begging for negotiations with Ukraine. Great Russia )) Yes, by the way, you know - after 12 months of a miserable parody of the Fuhrer, he named in turn almost a dozen "Russian real targets in a special military operation in Ukraine", the other day he said a new variant. It turns out now the goals of Russia in Ukraine are a state secret )))

Civilized states have already come to a consensus that it is not worth negotiating with Putin and that Russia should lose the war of conquest it unleashed in Ukraine. Therefore, the United States, European countries and other states will provide Ukraine with as many weapons as it needs to inflict a military defeat on Russia. Twelve states have already agreed to provide Ukraine with heavy tanks, over a thousand armored vehicles and other weapons. Now the issue of providing Ukraine with F-16 fighters is being decided.

Both Republicans and Democrats are now demanding that Biden provide Ukraine with as many weapons as it needs to win, and a large group of 17 specialists from the United States is already arriving in Ukraine to control the use of the transferred weapons.

The armed forces of Ukraine are now capable of inflicting a decisive defeat on Russia and liberating their territories, but Ukraine still lacks weapons. The offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been delayed for the time being both because of this reason and because of bad weather conditions. The loss of Bakhmut and Soledar does not have any significant significance. About 10 thousand people used to live in Soledar, now there are about 500 people there, and this small town is now nothing but ruins, where it is difficult to keep the defense. Therefore, the Armed Forces of Ukraine had already left Soledar and occupied more advantageous, fortified positions prepared in advance behind it on elevated high-rises, at the same time inflicting fire damage on the Russians in this area. Bakhmut has been held by the Armed Forces of Ukraine for eight months, for which it is even called a fortress. But in general, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are now ready to attack, and one of the most promising directions for the offensive is the south, in order to cut Russia's land corridor to the occupied Crimea.

From this month onwards, it will get tricky. GOP has a simple majority in the United States House of Representatives. And furthermore, in order to win the speaker election, McCarthy had to enter in to a compromise deal with the conservative Republicans and he will not be able to support bipartisan measures. Sending military aid to Ukraine will be difficult for Biden, in cases where House approval is required. GOP is not as excited as the Democrats, to spend tax payer money on Ukraine. If the Ukrainians lose major cities such as Bakhmut and Soledar, it will get even more complicated. 

Yes, the US has announced a new security assistance fund for Ukraine these countries have come forward to make important contributions in support of Ukraine. But for this we will stand by Ukraine until Russia alone stops the ongoing war in Ukraine as long as necessary, I will provide assistance to Ukraine. Where the Russia Ukraine war has plunged the entire world economy into a major crisis, if the United States takes such a role, it can change the course of events.

Yes, the United States is now providing maximum support to Ukraine, since Biden's decision on the supply of Abrams tanks to Ukraine in order to stimulate Germany to transfer its Leopard tanks to Ukraine should be made public today. Also in the United States, a decision was made to increase the production of shells sixfold, bringing them to 90,000 per month, in order to meet the needs of Ukraine and create its own reserve for possible subsequent conflicts. In addition, due to the fact that Russian military equipment did not perform well in the war in Ukraine, the demand for equipment from NATO countries is growing, so NATO will have plenty of military orders, their military-industrial complex will work at full capacity.

For the countries of the European Union, Russia's war in Ukraine, of course, is annoying in terms of providing financial, material and military assistance to Ukraine. But they have already understood that in this way they avoid war on their territory. Now every day the blood of Ukrainians is shed, and therefore Europe agrees to help Ukraine, if only to avoid such a fate.

So far the United States have provided the maximum amount of military and financial aid to Ukraine. But even then, the current war is likely to have more of an impact for the EU rather than the US. Americans can just print a few hundred billions of USD worth of banknotes to take care of the additional expenses, since USD is the reserve and trade currency of the world. On top of that, the private corporations such as Boeing and Raytheon are benefitting out of this war. But the EU doesn't have any such luxury. The aid that is being given to Ukraine is straining their finances.

Russia has been hatching plans to take over Ukraine since the early 2000s. She first attacked Georgia in 2008. Precisely because the international community did not properly respond to this aggression, in 2014 Russia seized the Crimean peninsula and part of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in Ukraine. Received only some weak sanctions in response. Therefore, the full-scale invasion of Ukraine last year was the result of the passivity of world states.
The Putin regime expected that further other states, and above all the United States and Europe, would not support Ukraine and would not impose significant sanctions. But this time Russia miscalculated. First of all, this became possible due to the fact that the Ukrainians gave a fitting rebuff to the invaders. As the Armed Forces of Ukraine make progress on the fronts, the level of support for Ukraine also grows. In Europe, they finally realized that if Putin seizes Ukraine, then he will go further to the countries of Europe.

The current situation shows that the United States will benefit from this war in any case. Their main rival - Russia is losing its military and economic power in unsuccessful attempts to seize Ukraine. Russia will never regain its former power and former influence on world politics. NATO, which was created for the military confrontation between the USSR and then Russia, is now fulfilling this task with the hands of Ukrainians, only helping Ukraine with weapons and finances. Now the Russian professional army is almost completely defeated in Ukraine. In addition, Russia has lost almost all of its armored power in Ukraine. Now there are big problems even with artillery and ammunition. Soon Russia will not even be able to fully attack Ukrainian positions. The result will be able to observe in the spring, closer to summer.

I see the current unfortunate series of events as a sign of American decline. Russia wouldn't had invaded Ukraine if the US was a "force to reckon with". Now everybody is paying the price as gas, food, and energy prices are increasing by the day. Even though the US hasn't directly intervened in the conflict with its military, it has spent billions of dollars and wasted a lot of its weapons reserves to support Ukraine. The more it gives Ukraine, the weaker the US will become.

I think the bad things outweigh the benefits. It's almost a year since the war started, and energy prices haven't been put under control yet (both in the US and EU). The US claims inflation has declined, but with rising energy prices, things will get worse in the long run. Who knows if the whole world is headed towards a very dark future? Just my thoughts

YOu are right - but seems like Government is not ready to give relief to the general public.
I have heard the same - even in the USA the prices of the petrol raised and then they came back to normal. But here - it is still the same.
The good government is blessing and we have been deprived of it ever since.