Topic: The impact of Russian and Ukrain war on world economy - page 23. (Read 13245 times)

I think - its the oil prices which has made the things problematic for the locals
Like in Sri Lanka and Pakistan and other poor countries
Unless and until the problem will be resolved - this will countiune

In my country the increase in the oil and gas price has made a very harsh impact on economy - most of the industries and companies are shutting down their operations.
The impact on Ukraine and Russian war on the economy is very brutal and it will last for another year or two.

Yes, there is a real problem with the EXACT calculation of the victims. On the side of Ukraine, the dead Russians are considered as follows (I apologize for some moments, not the most pleasant, but we comply with the laws of warfare, and worthy of respect for the dead enemy):
- On the battlefield, the body of the deceased was found with signs of belonging to the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (of different structures, regardless of the type of troops)
- The body of the deceased was found on the battlefield with secondary signs of belonging to Russia (camouflage, weapons, shoes, ammunition items, food rations, etc.)
- Remains / parts of bodies were found after the detonation of the striking element or ammunition (tank / armored personnel carrier / armored personnel carrier / MLRS / ...). Such crews are sometimes not possible to "collect", therefore they are counted by parts of the bodies, and the expected standard of the crew.
The bodies of these dead terrorists are kept in our morgues, mobile morgues (refrigerator cars), or if it is impossible to save them, they are buried, a file is made about each buried person, with photographs of unique elements, by which it can then be identified and transferred to relatives . The biggest problem here is that the Russians never actually take the bodies of the dead, refusing them, and do not inform their relatives ....

The second part, the counting mechanism, is based on actual provable materials:
- Documented (photo / video reports) defeats of enemy personnel, with fixation of the bodies of those killed on the battlefields, which are under the control of the terrorist army.
- If it is impossible to determine the number of people from the remains (you can’t imagine what will remain in the hull of a tank or armored personnel carrier after a Javelin or Stugna hit), the standard number of crew for this type of equipment is recorded.



The data from the Kremlin is probably a little more accurate (including belonging to one or another type of troops, terrorist non-military companies, etc.). they more accurately understand how many of their soldiers did not return from battle / sabotage, etc., knowing the staffing of the unit and the real presence of living / wounded units. BUT, at the same time, one must also understand that in Russia it is customary to significantly underestimate their real negative indicators ...

Igor Strelkov (Girkin) in his videos says that the new mobilization will take place after the first major defeat of the Russian troops.  In my opinion, the more people involved in the hostilities, the longer they will last.  And during this time, people can be convinced of anything with the help of propaganda. 

During the Covid-19 pandemic, I was very surprised by the fact that people very easily give up a normal, prosperous life....

During the pandemic, people were ready to voluntarily sit in self-isolation at home, not go out anywhere and wear masks, while hysterically scolding those who did not wear masks and went to various events.  At the same time, logically speaking, there is no evidence that self-isolation and wearing masks can interrupt the development of the epidemic.  If people were told that they should not leave their home for 10 years, then I am sure that they would not even try to go outside for 10 years. 

Perhaps it was during the coronavirus pandemic that the old people began to hate the youth, who, instead of being afraid of the virus, went to parties and had fun?  Maybe it's the revenge of the old people? 

Now people are taught that you need to constantly fight, because life is a struggle.  Old people willingly believe in it, young people do not believe it and strive to escape from the country or hide.

The Russia vs Ukraine war has been going on for more than a year, for the countries that were directly involved, of course, the impact of the war was very much felt, I worked for a company that needed raw materials from Russia so that when there was a war it was difficult to get these raw materials, and once replaced them with imports from other countries but the quality is not as good as raw materials from Russia.

It is a huge number. But always remember that Russians would try to downsize their casualty numbers and the Ukrainians would try to inflate the Russian casualties. The real number lies somewhere in between.

According to U.S. military, the number of dead and wounded among the Russians stand at 180,000 as of end of January 2023. General Eirik Kristoffersen (Norwegian chief of defense) has also provided with exactly the same number. If you take a ratio of 1 dead for every 3 wounded, then it comes to 45,000 dead and 135,000 wounded. I don't have any reasons to believe that the Americans are underestimating Russian casualty numbers.

Out of this number around half would be regular Russian soldiers or those who were mobilized. DNR and LNR have lost anywhere from 7,000 to 8,000 KIA. Remainder would be volunteers and members of PMC Wagner.

This is huge loss - on both the end. It is high time for the Putin to think on the humantain ground. I wonder if he doesn't think for his lost soldier?
The lives Russians have lost in battle - the scars will remain forever.

These are the numbers of Russian losses in manpower according to the data of the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

However, according to the latest report, which was provided by the Russian Ministry of Defense to Putin on January 28, the irretrievable losses of the dead and missing in the war in Ukraine amount to more than 176,000 people. Of these, the losses of the regular army - 126,567 people, the losses of private military companies - 44,012 people, the losses of the National Guard - 6284 people. These data do not include the losses of the mobilized so-called DPR and LPR, since these losses are not of interest to Russia.

I second the point mentioned above that - Russia will have 2 or three  more waves of mobilization maybe in March/June.
Perhaps there will be a third wave in the summer / autumn of 2023, but since more powers are joining hands with Ukraine  it is likely that by this time the Russian army will be irreversibly defeated, and internal problems will tear apart the power in the Kremlin

The second question is very valid - those who are so cruel that they can kill their neighbours and they have raped the women
Then surely they can do only harm to you and no good.

I agree with the Dr Beer question
The war load would want power and they have been doing it since ages and nothing will change

I will ask two simple questions (I apologize in advance for the content of the questions):
1. Tell me, why during the Second World War, Europe, Britain, the United States did not sit down at the negotiating table with Nazi Hitler Germany?
2. Situation - you are attacked by an armed criminal who has already killed your neighbors, ruined their house, burned down a neighboring store, parking lot and cafe, killed many people, and openly declares that he came to kill you and seize your housing, and he does not care about anything laws, rules. And you know that he is a recidivist, and has already killed, robbed, raped, and now he is free.
At the same time, he has already raped your wife and maimed your children, and he is aiming at you with a machine gun, and his partners put a gun to your head ... You will tell them "hey guys, come on, let's sit down and talk, discuss the situation! ".

Just be honest?

This conflict  has not only caused devastating  impact on economies of Russia & Ukraine, but also its spillover impact disturbed the global economy at large & created significant challenges and disruptions. The ongoing conflict has  reduced trade & investment flows & led to decrease in economic growth. Additionally, the economic uncertainty, increasing risk of security & disruption in supply chain has far reaching impact on global economy, which will continue suffering until this war comes to an end. International organizations like United Nations, NATO & European Union should intervene to bring both parties to the a negotiating table to reach a peaceful  settlement to end this conflict.

Another attempt, unsuccessfully expected, wishful thinking. Which is typical of some minds

Since the coming to power of V.F. Yanukovych in Ukraine, his people, many of whom openly represented the interests of the Kremlin, in Ukraine, "it was done" with their hands:
- Complete degradation of Ukroboronprom. The most powerful enterprises were engaged in the production of anything, except for core products. Although there were technologies and specialists. For example, the YuzhMash enterprise, which produced one of the most powerful strategic missiles SS-18 mod 1,2,3 "Satan" for the USSR, gradually curtailed production, and the only order they had left was the maintenance of these missiles (and this is a large part of the strategic nuclear armament of the USSR/RF) in Russia. Why ? Because, on the other hand, COMPETITIVE defense enterprises had to cease to exist, and since the Russian Federation was technologically backward even then, they could not independently service and maintain these missiles in working order. Only Ukrainian specialists, the developer companies, were able and could. So, by 2014, there were about 10,000-15,000 people in the actual combat neighborhoods of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, quite demoralized and not very well provided for. That is why in 2014 there was no adequate response to Russian terrorists in the Ukrainian Crimea. Since the time of President Kravchuk, strategic bombers and many other things, including new offensive weapons, have been transferred to the Russians under corruption and contracts that sabotage the defense industry and the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Therefore, the attack of the "second army of the world" took place on a small group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and volunteer detachments, which, in general, stopped this terrorist horde! So the conditions in Ukraine were much worse than in Iran.

Regarding help. More or less real help began to come to Ukraine only after the whole world realized that their pessimistic forecasts about the fate of Ukraine did not work, and Ukraine managed to hit Russian terrorists in the "snout" and fully "tie" them and start to fight back. Well, plus after Russia took up open economic terror. And it was already the summer of 2022. And in small parts. And only light weapons. And only a limited number. And only from Britain and the USA, as well as Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. Many others pretended to actively help... So - again, you either fantasize or deliberately, out of habit, lie... Although this does not surprise me at all

By the way, you forgot to mention that Iraq was fully supported by the USSR / RF. The USSR/Russia supplied Iraq with weapons, money, technology, consultants and all necessary assistance. So I don’t quite understand why you are shielding Russia, a terrorist country, from the history of atrocities and crimes against the Iranian people and state?!

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No offense - are you preparing a speech, in a clinic for the mentally damaged? Or do you really think that someone will believe in these fakes?

The reality is this:
Armed forces of the Russian Federation: more than 1 million people.
In the terrorist operation against Ukraine at the beginning, at the first stage, the first shock group included about 190,000 bodies. The most combat-ready units. They dissolved in Ukrainian fields, becoming fertilizer, around the summer of 2022. After that, keeping the promise given to the entire Russian Federation that "there will be no conscription to the army to the front," Putin, as expected, deceived everyone in his usual manner. And announced the mobilization. 300,000 bodies were mobilized. In the operation, which, according to Putin himself, went according to a predetermined plan, and takes no more than 2-3 weeks!
After that, before the new year, the "great leader" of Russia said that everything was over, the mobilization was over. They say the goals of the special operation have been achieved. Although today we already know 10 versions of these goals and they change almost every month .
But to the question - "where is the order to complete the mobilization", he said - "well, why write an order, I said, it means
  ended."
And in December 2022, covert mobilization began. Putin's cook Prigozhin will also be added, who received the right to recruit murderers, rapists, pedophiles, thieves in his private military company in Russian prisons, and to those who survive - to grant freedom, amnesty and zeroing of their crimes. This is Russia - chic social elevators operate here

Since the beginning of his active participation in terrorism in Ukraine, PMC Wagner has attracted more than 50,000 criminals, more than 35,000 of whom are still lying in Ukrainian fields. No, it's not an image, it's a reality. They are simply sent to break through the fortifications of the Armed Forces of Ukraine wave after wave. How the USSR fought during the Second World War, throwing the enemy’s fortifications with the corpses of its citizens.

And the first wave, and the first mobilization, and PMCs, and Kadyrov's gangs and other formations of the Russian Federation in Ukraine were destroyed. That is why now in Russia they are openly preparing to increase the regular army by 500,000, mobilization will affect at least 300,000, and after that another 2-3 repetitions of 300,000 each. Back in 2022, 2 months before the first mobilization, I warned the Russians! And in October-November 2022, he warned the Russians, and even in this forum - at the end of December - January 2023, you will again be taken away for slaughter. If you want to live, run away from Russia...

And now I repeat:
- Russia will have at least 2 more waves of mobilization (March/June). Perhaps there will be a third wave in the summer / autumn of 2023, but it is likely that by this time the Russian army will be irreversibly defeated, and internal problems will tear apart the power in the Kremlin ...
- in Russia, with a very high probability, martial law will be introduced and the economy will be transferred to "military rails." The truth is that they won’t say it openly, as it should be in a totalitarian country with a cowardly Nazi regime

And now about the REAL losses of the terrorist army of the Russian Federation in Ukraine:

Living Force:
killed ~131.290
wounded ~393.870
captured ~1.000

Loss of equipment (as a percentage, a part of the total number in the Russian army is indicated)
Combat armored vehicles 6405 (46.6%)
Tanks 3220 (more than 90%, which is why the Russian Federation is now begging even Laos for T-34 tanks )
Artillery 2226 (39%)
Litaki 294 (21%)
Helicopters 284 (30%)

PS Yes, and one more thing - in February-March of this year, but rather from February 12-20, Russia will make another attempt to "break through" in Ukraine. The goals are another attempt to attack Kyiv (including the shelling of civilian objects and civilians in my hometown with C300 / C400 ballistic missiles), and in the south-east of Ukraine in the Zaporozhye, Donetsk and Lugansk regions. It will cost Russia - several hundred thousand of its citizens, whose lives the crazy Kremlin under-furrer plays ineptly at war ...
And all in order to try to "achieve victory" by the sacred date for the Russian terrorist state - February 23. This is the day of the Russian army - the army of terrorists, murderers, rapists, marauders ... I am sure that Ukraine will put an end to this holiday so that it will be forgotten forever!

PS When you want to lie with all your might, at least study the materials of the subject area. Question for the final - where did you get the data that the Armed Forces of Ukraine had 300 aircraft and 200 helicopters? ))
Did you count the planes with civilian sides that were shot down by terrorists?

[moderator's note: consecutive posts merged]

Check this:

https://hurseda.net/gundem/246987-iddia-mossad-a-gore-ukrayna-ve-rusya-kayiplari.html

This is a link from a Turkish Newspaper, which claims that they have leaked the Mossad estimate for losses during the Russo-Ukrainian war. According to this source, the losses are as follows:

Russia:
Current strength at frontline: 418,000 (excluding PMC Wagner and LNR/DNR)
Killed: 18,480 (only armed forces and reservists probably, doesn't include PMC Wagner or LNR/DNR)
Injured: 44,500
Prisoner: 323
Aircraft lost: 23
Helicopter lost: 56
Tanks/APC lost: 889
Lost Artillery systems: 427

Ukraine:
Current Strength at frontline: 734,000 (only armed forces and reservists)
Killed: 157,000 (only armed forces and reservists probably)
Injured: 234,000
Prisoner: 17,230
Aircraft lost: 302
Helicopter lost: 212
Tanks/APC lost: 6,320
Lost Artillery systems: 7,360

IMO, Russian casualties if we include Wagner and other allied forces would be ~60,000 KIA. Ukrainians probably lost around 165,000 including foreign mercenaries. Both the countries can sustain up to 1 million KIA (each), and therefore I would say that there is a good probability that this war can continue for another 4-5 years.

Yes, both countries have reasons for ending these senseless hostilities. But the whole problem is that Russia is an authoritarian country and all power there is concentrated in the hands of Putin, for whom not achieving his crazy and absurd goals means defeat both as a politician and as an individual. Russia does not like weak rulers and will remove him anyway if he loses. He understands this and tries to drag out the time of defeat as long as possible, throwing new hundreds of thousands of his citizens into the furnace of war, who mean nothing to Putin. As long as the Russians will meekly obey and go to the slaughter in Ukraine, Putin, already hoping more for a miracle, will stay in power. Here, either the people will kill Putin, or Putin will continue to exterminate his people in this war, because the Ukrainians have no other choice but to defend their freedom and independence.

Both sides also have reasons to stop fighting. Russia has lost and is continuously losing on a daily basis a lot of men, material and resources as well. And with the numerous sanctions currently imposed on them by the west and it’s allies, they’re are losing far much money than they seem to be benefiting at the moment.

Ukraine also isn’t benefiting anything as they’ve got to be constantly on their toes to be able to counter and repel any offensive from the Russians.
I’m curious, do you think the Ukrainians are getting cold hard cash in form of aid from the west and it’s allies? I don’t think so. They’re getting lots of new equipment technology and aid that’s is worth that amount. I don’t think they’re giving them tens of billions in cash.
Each side has also taken a great deal of loss and both sides has all the reasons to stop fighting.

^^^  I agree with most of what pooya87 posted above. And it is true that national debt for Iran didn't increased by much as a result of the war. But it can't be denied that this war was horribly expensive, and it put both these countries backwards by at least 2-3 decades. And one thing that I always notice is that whenever a war occurs, the vast majority of the casualties will be among young men, especially in the 18 to 24 age group. This is true for all the recent conflicts, including the Russo-Ukraine war, Karabakh war and the Ethiopian civil conflict. This in turn will have a negative impact on the economy and social structure of the countries involved for at least half a century.

Full scale invasion of Iran in 1980 is not even a tiny bit similar to full scale invasion of Ukraine

In the 1980's Iran was still chaotic after the revolution in 1979. Iran had no allies, no military, no weapons, no money, a very new government, no high ranking military officer with any kind of experience, no defenses, ...
Compared with Ukraine, they have the help of half the world, have unlimited funding and weapons are pouring into Ukraine on top of all the military, intelligence and logistical support Ukraine is receiving.

Iraq (the invader) on the other hand had literary everything; Saddam was being funded by half a dozen rich Arabs with bottomless pockets, he was receiving all types of weapons and ammunition from more than 60 countries, he received and used everything except nukes (for example chemical and viral weapons he kept receiving from Germany and US), he had full support of United States and Soviet Union and Europe (help includes logistical, funds, arms and intelligence), ...
Compared with Russia that is invading Ukraine alone!

This is one of the reasons why it lasted 8 years (not 10 BTW).

P.S. As far as the data shows to this day the largest war after World War 2 is still the Iran-Iraq war.

This is not entirely correct. Saddam was in a lot of debt but he still had continues funding granted he continued invading. Iran on the other hand had no debt since as I said Iran was alone and nobody helped Iran to put the country in debt!
Saddam was also receiving weapons nonstop from the Western powers, in fact by the end of the war Iraq had borrowed loads of fighter jets from UK and France alone not to mention the large shipments of missiles received from US and chemical bombs from Germany.

What was different in the final years of that war was Iran the side that were left completely alone and had to become self sufficient and it did. In final years the Iranian air defense was a serious threat to modern Western planes, Iran's drone industry had been created and reached a very good level capable of performing operations in long distances, the Iranian missile industry was built and reached a good level capable of responding to threats and the navy was mastering the unconventional warfare to the point that in the last 2 years of the war Iran was facing multiple navies from Soviet Union to US and UK and was attacking and sinking them left and right in what is known as The Persian Gulf War.

Wrong.
After that war ended, Saddam did the same exact thing and repeated the same exact aggression.
The only difference was that the invasion of Kuwait was not ordered by US whereas invasion of Iran was. Keep in mind that in 1979 the Iranians booted US and their dictator out of the country and this was kind of US revenge.

Additionally US wanted to take control of the oil rich Iran and Iraq both which is why they had plans to invade the loser of the Iran-Iraq war from day one. It's just that by 1990 the past encounters with Iranian military had left a terrible scar on the US military (honorary mention of the stupidest military operation in human history called Eagle Claw on April 1980) so they didn't want the repetition of it so soon. Which is why they invaded Iraq instead which was in a huge debt, had lost the backing of Arabs since Saddam lost the Iran-Iraq war and his military (unlike Iran's) was mostly depending on foreign aid.

From a military invasion of Ukraine will lose, and very large, first of all, Russia.
There was information that representatives of five regions of the Russian Federation at once during the "Post-Russia Forum", which took place on the premises of the European Parliament last Monday, January 30, announced the start of an online referendum on self-determination.

Russians from Kaliningrad (Kenigsberg), St. Petersburg, the Urals, Siberia and Kuban have announced their desire to start the process of territorial, political and economic separation from Moscow. This has also long been expected in Chechnya, Bashkiria and other regions of the Russian Federation.

The initiative group believes that independence will help the inhabitants of these regions achieve economic prosperity, getting rid of the looting by Moscow. In addition, separation from the Russian Federation will be able to save their inhabitants from the fate of becoming cannon fodder for the Kremlin in various wars, while the participants paid special attention to the armed conflict in Ukraine. The start of the online referendum on the self-determination of Russian regions is scheduled for Thursday, February 16, 2023. It should be recalled that Russia without Siberian oil and gas will be a poor second-rate state.
Russia very actively supported the right of Ukraine's regions to self-determination. Let's see how they react to the same right in Russia itself. As always, flood the speeches with the blood of the protesters? So the strength is no longer enough, they all die in Ukraine.