I agree with you. It seems to me that bookmakers simply compare clubs by the value of their players and make their calculations and predictions based on that.
Football is much more complex and unpredictable than that, because if the favorites always won, then Brazil would be the world champion in the last few world cups, and Manchester City and/or PSG would win the Champions League all the time.
We know that Manchester City and PSG still, after investing a lot of time and money, failed to achieve their main goal, to become champions of Europe, and it is obvious that in football money can't buy everything.
I would say that more important than that is the unity in the team, and the physical and mental strength of the players.
That's why I'm again favoring Real this season to win the Champions League.
In tournaments with playoff stage, yes, money can't buy everything (although it can buy a lot). Unfortunately, in round robin tournaments, money bags easily achieve results. Their resource is simply incomparable with other honest clubs. Nevertheless, this season at least (if a terrible thing happens and one of the cheating clubs win the Champions League) one pleasant event will happen: either City or PSG will once again be left without the desired trophy