US Elections 2020 - very self such moderated - page 6.

PrimeNumber7

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Quote from: suchmoon on November 21, 2020, 07:35:30 PM

Apparently some Trump supporters in Georgia are upset enough to boycott the Senate runoffs:

https://www.newsweek.com/georgia-trump-supporters-destroy-gop-boycott-senate-runoffs-1549245

That can't be real, can it?

Trump underperformed the down-ballot candidates almost everywhere. If the election stands, voters will have voted against Trump, rather than for Biden.

Loeffler should handily win as her opponent is especially radical in a Red state. Loeffler and Collins received a total of ~56% of votes, while her opponent only received ~32.9% of the vote.

Gyfts

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Quote from: suchmoon on November 21, 2020, 07:35:30 PM

Apparently some Trump supporters in Georgia are upset enough to boycott the Senate runoffs:

https://www.newsweek.com/georgia-trump-supporters-destroy-gop-boycott-senate-runoffs-1549245

That can't be real, can it?

It's real, I'm sure.

I've seen this sort of temper tantrum among conservative circles that won't get over him losing. I don't think he should have lost, but at some point getting the fuck over it is the best move.

suchmoon

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Apparently some Trump supporters in Georgia are upset enough to boycott the Senate runoffs:

https://www.newsweek.com/georgia-trump-supporters-destroy-gop-boycott-senate-runoffs-1549245

That can't be real, can it?

DaveF

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Quote from: bryant.coleman on November 12, 2020, 11:24:27 PM

Biden's lead in Arizona has been further reduced to 11,034. Only 16,040 ballots remain to be counted and therefore we can safely assume that it will be impossible for Trump to win Arizona. And I am not sure whether there will be a recount. Because in Arizona the recount rules are very tough, and the losing candidate can request one only in case the margin is less than 200 votes.

Actually if you look at the sites I posted above:

From here as of the time of this post, Biden is up by 11,434:
https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/18/0

And from here: https://arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html there are 10,315 left to count. So no way to win at this point.

So AZ went blue.

And yeah, it's tough to get a recount in AZ. And they have been doing large amount of mail in ballots for years. Not to the extent of this election, but a very large percentage even in a normal election.

-Dave

bryant.coleman

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Biden's lead in Arizona has been further reduced to 11,034. Only 16,040 ballots remain to be counted and therefore we can safely assume that it will be impossible for Trump to win Arizona. And I am not sure whether there will be a recount. Because in Arizona the recount rules are very tough, and the losing candidate can request one only in case the margin is less than 200 votes.

DaveF

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Quote from: bryant.coleman on November 11, 2020, 11:31:15 PM

BTW, Biden's lead continues to decline in Arizona. But the big question is whether there are enough votes remaining, so that Trump can flip the lead. According to the latest update from the authorities, only 24,738 votes remain to be counted (including 18,514 provisional ballots). Right now Trump is trailing by around 11,635 votes and his chances are not looking very bright.

If you take a look here: https://arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html

It looks like the majority of those ballots are from Maricopa and Pima both of which are more for Biden then Trump.
Apache is also going for Biden.

Cochise and Yuma are going for Trump but combined they have fewer outstanding votes then Maricopa.

https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/18/0 --> click view more then by county.

So getting a lead is going to be difficult.

In the end it probably does not matter. Even if Trump takes AZ and NC and GA he sill lost.

-Dave

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Quote from: Spendulus on November 11, 2020, 12:11:30 PM

IIRC Kodiak Island was boat only three or four times a week.
Many other areas would be very slow by our standards, in seasons when small aircraft cannot fly.

Hmm.. interesting.

BTW, Biden's lead continues to decline in Arizona. But the big question is whether there are enough votes remaining, so that Trump can flip the lead. According to the latest update from the authorities, only 24,738 votes remain to be counted (including 18,514 provisional ballots). Right now Trump is trailing by around 11,635 votes and his chances are not looking very bright.

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Quote from: bryant.coleman on November 11, 2020, 02:49:32 AM

One week has passed since the elections, and we don't know who won states such as Arizona, Georgia and Alaska. I am really surprised with the delay from Alaska. ... Are they transporting the ballots in dog sleds and carts pulled by polar bears?

IIRC Kodiak Island was boat only three or four times a week.

Many other areas would be very slow by our standards, in seasons when small aircraft cannot fly.

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Quote from: bryant.coleman on November 11, 2020, 02:49:32 AM

One week has passed since the elections, and we don't know who won states such as Arizona, Georgia and Alaska. I am really surprised with the delay from Alaska. They have just processed around 65% of the vote. Why the counting is getting so much delayed there? Are they transporting the ballots in dog sleds and carts pulled by polar bears?

BTW, Biden's lead in Arizona has been reduced to 12,813 votes (remember that this was one of the states called very early by Fox News). Approximately 45,819 ballots remain to be counted (including 27,602 provisional ballots).

https://arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html

They have some rule that you can't open absentee votes till a week after the election. I guess they want them to be all together at once and they need time for the votes to come in from the North Pole.

bryant.coleman

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One week has passed since the elections, and we don't know who won states such as Arizona, Georgia and Alaska. I am really surprised with the delay from Alaska. They have just processed around 65% of the vote. Why the counting is getting so much delayed there? Are they transporting the ballots in dog sleds and carts pulled by polar bears?

BTW, Biden's lead in Arizona has been reduced to 12,813 votes (remember that this was one of the states called very early by Fox News). Approximately 45,819 ballots remain to be counted (including 27,602 provisional ballots).

https://arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html

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Quote from: bryant.coleman on November 10, 2020, 01:25:47 AM

Just checked Realclearpolitics, and they still have Biden at 259.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/live_results/2020/president/

They haven't yet called the outcome in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Alaska. However, DecisionHQ has Biden at 279, with tossups at AZ, NC, GA and AK. Also, two of the senate races (North Carolina and Alaska) are also not called yet. Really shameful... the fact remains that United States presidential election results are not known even one week after the election day.. Some of the developed nations are much better than this..

To be fair, the US election is like 50 developed nations all having their election on the same day for the same leader.

bryant.coleman

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Just checked Realclearpolitics, and they still have Biden at 259.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/live_results/2020/president/

They haven't yet called the outcome in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Alaska. However, DecisionHQ has Biden at 279, with tossups at AZ, NC, GA and AK. Also, two of the senate races (North Carolina and Alaska) are also not called yet. Really shameful... the fact remains that United States presidential election results are not known even one week after the election day.. Some of the developed nations are much better than this..

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Quote from: suchmoon on November 07, 2020, 05:23:57 PM

Quote from: TwitchySeal on November 07, 2020, 05:12:27 PM

~

Beautiful. Why do we even have the elections then? Must be some pesky state laws requiring that. Can they try to change those laws? I don't see how that could be done retroactively.

In 2016 too, there were some rumors about "unfaithful electors" who said they won't vote according to what the voters in their state wanted them to do. But in the end nothing like that happened to overturn the result. No one really in practical world can do that. It will destroy all credibility of election and the respective party as a whole.

www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/which-candidates-did-the-seven-faithless-electors-support-election-2016/

Republicans if they do this stuff, the public will lose the trust on them and I am sure just for saving Trump's reputation, the party won't do that!

suchmoon

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Please move your bet to a separate thread. It's better for your own sake to not have it in someone else's self-mod thread and off topic here. TYVM.

PrimeNumber7

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Quote from: DaveF on November 08, 2020, 11:32:03 PM

Quote from: PrimeNumber7 on November 08, 2020, 02:43:37 PM

Quote from: DaveF on November 07, 2020, 02:45:42 PM

Want to place a bet that no matter how much litigation happens Biden still wins?

-Dave

The betting odds are currently roughly 10:1 for Trump to be the next president (a $1 bet wins $10). If you would be willing to offer these odds, I may be willing to consider a bet with you.

That site is showing 8:1 at the moment but it does seem to bounce a lot.

Since this is the Bitcoin board, not the USD board how about BTC0.015 of my funds against yours no matter where BTC is at the time. That when the electoral college votes next month (or whenever they meet) that they vote Biden in.

If Trump or Biden concedes before then the bet becomes payable at that time.

-Dave

I would be willing to bet you BTC0.001875 to win BTC0.015* with the following terms:
If Trump is President as of 12:01 PM Jan 20, 2021(one minute after his first term ends), I win the bet
If Biden is President as of 12:01 PM, Jan 20, 2021, you win the bet
If anyone else is President as of 12:01 PM, Jan 20, 2021, the bet is a draw
If Biden or Trump concedes, the bet is payable to the other party, however, the bet will not be final until 12:01 PM, Jan 20, 2021. This allows one party to concede, and end up becoming president (for example if they won a court case)

*for clarification, I am risking BTC0.001875 and you are risking BTC0.015

The logic behind the above terms is that Trump's legal strategy is not necessarily to win 270 electoral votes, it is to deny Biden from getting 270 votes. If the electoral college meets and there is no winner (neither candidate receives 270 votes), congress votes on the next president, with each state getting one vote.

The above offer will expire 24 hours from the date of this post if it has not been accepted.

DaveF

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Quote from: PrimeNumber7 on November 08, 2020, 02:43:37 PM

Quote from: DaveF on November 07, 2020, 02:45:42 PM

Want to place a bet that no matter how much litigation happens Biden still wins?

-Dave

The betting odds are currently roughly 10:1 for Trump to be the next president (a $1 bet wins $10). If you would be willing to offer these odds, I may be willing to consider a bet with you.

That site is showing 8:1 at the moment but it does seem to bounce a lot.

Since this is the Bitcoin board, not the USD board how about BTC0.015 of my funds against yours no matter where BTC is at the time. That when the electoral college votes next month (or whenever they meet) that they vote Biden in.

If Trump or Biden concedes before then the bet becomes payable at that time.

-Dave

PrimeNumber7

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Quote from: DaveF on November 07, 2020, 02:45:42 PM

Quote from: PrimeNumber7 on November 07, 2020, 02:37:52 PM

Quote from: Gyfts on November 07, 2020, 01:14:34 PM

NBC, CNN, AP all call it for Biden.

Election was like ripping a band aid off slowly.

A news outlet “calling” a race means nothing. It is the electoral college that determines who becomes president. There will likely be litigation that goes to the Supreme Court.

The media has gotten a lot wrong over the past four years, and I have no reason to believe they have gotten any better.

Want to place a bet that no matter how much litigation happens Biden still wins?

-Dave

The betting odds are currently roughly 10:1 for Trump to be the next president (a $1 bet wins $10). If you would be willing to offer these odds, I may be willing to consider a bet with you.

Quote from: DooMAD on November 07, 2020, 03:25:06 PM

Quote from: suchmoon on November 07, 2020, 02:49:45 PM

and let's keep the conspiracy theories to a minimum...

Aww, but I was just going to discuss the theory that Trump / Pence were going to pull a Ford / Nixon. Trump will step down, make Pence president and Pence will give Trump a presidential pardon to keep him out of jail (even though he rightfully belongs there).

While there is not any evidence that Trump committed any crime while in office, IMO it would be prudent for him to pardon everyone in his administration, including himself as I would presume that he would be the subject to politically motivated prosecutions.

Quote from: suchmoon on November 07, 2020, 05:23:57 PM

Quote from: TwitchySeal on November 07, 2020, 05:12:27 PM

~

Beautiful. Why do we even have the elections then? Must be some pesky state laws requiring that. Can they try to change those laws? I don't see how that could be done retroactively.

In order for any state legislature to change a law, including the law that governs who electoral college voters are, the law would need to be signed by the governor, or have sufficient support in the legislature to override a veto. The only state this could possibly be done in is GA and AZ, which would not be enough to change the election outcome. It would also be damaging politically for those who vote in favor of this type of proposal.

bryant.coleman

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Quote from: suchmoon on November 06, 2020, 11:54:25 PM

Quote from: bryant.coleman on November 06, 2020, 11:15:24 PM

Even in case Republicans somehow manage to win the two remaining seats in Georgia (Perdue and Loeffler), their majority will be reduced to 52-48. But then there are at least two "Republican" senators who vote with Democrats most of the time - Murkowski and Collins. So even in the best case scenario for Republicans, the actual balance in the senate is going to be 50-50.

Democrats effectively gained 2 seats (1 proper Senate seat + VP tiebreaker) but I would expect the GA runoffs to be fierce. Now that a state-wide Georgia election has been shown to be winnable for Democrats they will probably gamble a $100 million on it.

Money can't make too much difference, as seen from the senate elections in Kentucky, South Carolina and Iowa. The Democrats poured in more than $100 million to each of these races, hoping to flip them. But in the end, the GOP incumbents won by a very comfortable margin. The huge influx of money actually provoked a backlash from the natives of these states, as there were reports that a lot of people voiced concern about the attempts being made by the liberals in California and New York to influence the elections in smaller states.

suchmoon

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Quote from: TwitchySeal on November 07, 2020, 05:12:27 PM

~

Beautiful. Why do we even have the elections then? Must be some pesky state laws requiring that. Can they try to change those laws? I don't see how that could be done retroactively.

o_e_l_e_o

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Quote from: suchmoon on November 07, 2020, 02:49:45 PM

and let's keep the conspiracy theories to a minimum

I love the idea that Democrats could pull off a nationwide voting scam/scandal to make Biden president, and yet choose to let Mitch McConnell be re-elected.

Topic: US Elections 2020 - very self such moderated - page 6. (Read 4670 times)