Topic: US Elections 2020 - very self such moderated - page 3. (Read 4674 times)

After the last four years - or maybe I was always that cynical - I don't believe that this dissent will last. Some Republicans will say the correct words, some will quietly wait it out, but when the next round of primaries starts they will all be pandering to Trump's base again, which will see this attack on the Capitol as real patriots doing the right thing. Fox News is already weaving a narrative to that effect. I'm sure Newsmax and OAN are way ahead.

There have been a handful of Press/communications related resignations today. I wouldn't think much of this until 'real' staffers start to resign, such as those who have actual influence on police.


There is a discussion here --> https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/25th-amendment-after-trump-supporters-riot-in-the-capital-5307383


Trump is actually banned on Twitter. Expect to see a thread by RealDonaldTrump2 trying to appeal the ban in meta. There are a lot of business leaders condemning the violence (its too bad they didn't do the same this summer).

Expecting a TON of people in the WH to resign over the next few days. Only way to ensure that they’ll have a job in the next Republican administration, as this is the last straw for Trumpism in the party — or at least for the future of the party.

I’ve seen reports of staffers of McCarthys (House minority leader - GOP) saying that they may resign in protest over him helping to start this fire. Many reports of WH staffers and aides and such within the executive branch.

Axios is reporting that some cabinet members are discussing invoking the 25th amendment. No word from Pence though - https://www.axios.com/republicans-trump-removal-25th-amendment-a91c9dc4-b01f-4a50-ae41-aea971388d57.html

National manufacturing lobbying group came out and is backing the call as well. We’ll see where that goes and what Trump does on his twitter as a response.

With Ted Cruz making a fool of himself (in his defense, hilariously unlucky timing having to go from his speech to hiding under his desk) and so many Republicans finally conceding Trump is a psycho I expect a whole bunch of people working for Trump to resign very soon if they have any reputation left to salvage. 

Pretty sure they’re expecting a bipartisan assault on bigtech, which is probably to be expected given the fact that both sides are cool with regulating tech — either through removing something like section 230 (which is only really wanted by the right) - or breaking up monopolies, which is something that the left wants.

They’ll find some common ground between those extreme points, not sure where they’ll be at. But maybe we’ll see some sort of laws relating to data (GDPR in the EU) or about how companies should treat data surrounding data breaches.

Who the hell knows now, but big tech is going to be regulated more under a Biden admin.

Market is happy cause stimulus and trade deals will be more stable.

That's weird. I listened to the full Trump phone call with the Georgia Secretary of State the other day and he said the markets would be devastated if that happened.

Stock market seems to like Ossoff's and Warnock's wins, except Nasdaq for some reason. Perhaps a clamp down on Big Tech is expected.

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/major-us-stock-indexes-fared-wednesday-75095771


Bitcoin up 10%+ too.

LMAOOOOOOO

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1346900434540240897

I literally had this in my bingo card that Trump would throw his own Vice President down the stairs because he didn't get his way. Grade A narcissist with an incredibly fragile ego. Meanwhile, the US capitol building is being sieged by a bunch of Trump rioters forcing evacuation on the senate floor. This is completely on Trump, and I think this last month of his Presidency will define his entire administration as a dumpster fire.

Republican party is going to be in shambles. "Trumpism" isn't going away and Republicans are going to be forced to embrace it. This is identical to democrats embracing progressive radicals in their party. Seems like it is now a two way street.

This is part sarcasm and part (sadly) the truth. There are a lot of voters out there in that state that don't care because the do it too.
Not saying that the other side looks the other way for things that they do, just that to some it's a bunch of meh.


After the 1st few months yes, but:
Years ago, I don't remember when I saw a movie that had the wonderful quote "Fuck you, you fuckity fuck" And since all of us in the office are originally from Brooklyn / Queens / Da Bronx it just became a wildly inappropriate thing to say around the office when someone pissed us off. I see that happening for a bit.

Probably not in any way that matters in the long run. i.e. lower emissions standards / higher MPG requirements. They are changing no matter what, you can kick and scream all you want but when 75% of the word adopts a standard you are either going to join them or not sell to that 75%. The auto makers can do all the posturing they want, but as they fought CA they also were planning more efficient vehicles.

And I see every open Judge's seat being appointed as fast as they can get them in.

Just to say FU to the R's

Things that people on both sides wanted I can see being pushed through but leaning a bit more left.

But free college / Medicare for all / I don't see it.

-Dave

How Lauda would have put the quote:

Well, this is disappointing. It would've been surprising a month ago, but after the Republicans' many recent failures, I'm not surprised. Looking forward:

I think that Democrats will be able to increase taxes a little, though not as much as what Biden proposed. Maybe corporate rates will go from 21% to 25%, and the top individual rate will go up a few points to Obama levels. I'd guess no changes to capital gains, or something fairly small if anything. Personally, I don't care too much about tax increases or big one-time spending projects (eg. a green infrastructure program); I'm much more concerned with lasting changes to law and precedent. Free speech is likely to be attacked through attacks on "hate speech" and substantially changing section 230. Minor gun control measures are likely. Further privacy violations are likely, especially in finance: all BTC holdings may be required to reported in the same way as foreign accounts, for example. Various harmful regulations are likely. Foreign involvement will increase, and while the administration may seem less bellicose compared to Trump, there will be probably be one or more Libya-style interventions. The administrative state will become larger, more powerful, and more entrenched. The best I can hope for is that Democrats are not very efficient or unified, they waste a lot of time not getting much lasting lawmaking done, and Republicans retake the House or Senate in 2 years. (A unified Republican government would do some of the same bad things I listed above, BTW, maybe just 20% less bad overall.)

I've been thinking that after a few quarters of above-average growth due to a partial recovery from COVID, the economy is headed for 5+ years of very low growth and moderate inflation due to scarring from the economic damage that's been done, a lot of accumulated malinvestment, and the unprecedented levels of spending and money-printing. This election result probably won't have a huge effect on the economic outlook one way or another, though the economic situation may put Democrats on the back foot politically going forward. This economic environment is good for BTC, but there is a very high probability of harmful regulations, so this election result makes me more bearish for Bitcoin over the next few years.

Some silver linings:

First, if Republicans had won, it'd be 2 years of boring stonewalling from McConnell, whereas the current situation will be a much more interesting display of infighting and intense political maneuvering. Democrats have several deep divides which they'll have to deal with. Republicans will be trying to play of a game of simultaneously trying to build back their base, stopping Democrats from enacting their major policy goals or getting wins, and negotiating-with/pressuring Democrats to bring them further right. It'll be fun to watch.

Second, maybe this will knock some sense into Republicans, and they'll move away from their current strategy of mostly abandoning two-thirds of their supporters in favor of pandering extra strongly to the most braindead segment of Republican voters. I want to see halfway-decent Republicans like Rand Paul and Mike Lee learn from Trump's past successes, but forcefully reject Trump's insanity. They need to stop saying, "Well, maybe it's OK to be a little bit completely insane." (Not because I care about American institutions, but because insanity leads to failure, and I don't want to see 20 years of Democratic control of government.)

Third, as part of winning, Democrats chose to form a coalition with many quite economically conservative groups of voters. There's no way they're going to even attempt something like Medicare for All anytime soon; Biden himself would veto it. Today's Democratic party is firmly a neoliberal party, basically an extension of the Business Roundtable. This is definitely bad, but it's 95% status quo: "Nothing will fundamentally change," as Biden famously said.

On paper right now it's really close, but it seems like the most likely outcome is Dems sweeping when considering which ballots have yet to be counted.
Decision desk already called Warnock:

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Check out Loefflers scandals and the police report about Warnock's ex wifes foot.

DeKalb dropped in a big batch of results just now, pretty much in line with NYT estimates. There doesn't seem to be any reason to doubt the estimates of the remaining ~5% percent of the votes.

I wouldn’t count the chickens before the eggs hatch.

Republicans are underperforming in many rural countries, but not by a lot.

I think both races will come down to DeKalb county, which is apparently taking a long time to count ballots. Only about 40% of voting locations reporting.

I am surprised that Warnock is outperforming Ossoff considering that Warnock is apparently a wife beater.

According to the NYT election needle, Warnock is expected to win with a margin of +1.8%, while Ossoff may win with a margin of +0.9%. It looks as if the Republican turnout was quite low for this election, probably disappointed by the outcome of the November elections. So it means a 51-49 majority for Democrats in the select (if we add Murkowski in the Democrat column).

Guess this election is over, already. Dem's take both seats. Democrats outperformed in almost all the counties that I looked at and Atlanta still hasn't reported which will, at minimum, split like 80/20 democrat. Looked all over the map and couldn't find any areas in which GOP were outperforming.

It depends on how they count it. In November I think they counted election day ballots first and mail-ins later so blue shift was more likely. And it heavily depends on which counties report first. NYT is trying to adjust for all these factors but I don't think they can do much this early on. When it's 50%+ counted then it might be worth looking at those needles.

Edit: I checked a couple dozen counties that reported nearly all of their votes and there seems to be a consistent shift towards Democrats compared to November results. It's not quite clear if it will be enough for them to win, particularly for Ossoff who was trailing Perdue in November and is about half a percentage point behind Warnock today.

Edit2: With 80% counted and remaining votes being mostly in metro Atlanta counties, it would take a major miracle for Republicans to win, even though they're narrowly leading at this point in time. It looks like Trump succeeded in his anti-election fight.

I like the NYT "needles" where they forecast the election chances in real time.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/01/05/us/elections/forecast-georgia-senate-runoff.html

Brings me back to Georgia on November 3rd though. They had Trump with a 70-80% chance to win and on the same night they flipped the odds in Joe Biden's favor. And of course, we all knew how close Georgia came in. Isn't always accurate but still something to pay attention to.

There was a nonpartisan expert on C-SPAN's Washington Journal recently who said that it's 2 hours per objection, and that there can be more than one objection per state. In the past, multiple objections were combined, but only via unanimous consent in the joint session. Reading the law myself, it doesn't seem crystal clear to me that 2 hours per objection isn't allowed or intended, though a ridiculous filibuster probably wasn't envisioned.


I think so too; he seems to be of the "put on a good show and slowly ease into being able to put Trump's madness behind us" mindset. But he's difficult to read, and maybe he could somehow be pressured into it.

Isn't it 2 hours per state? I remember reading something about objections for each state being "disposed of" with a 2-hour debate and vote, which to me sounded like no matter how many objections there are it's all resolved at once. And they wouldn't object to red state votes, would they. Granted Pence could choose to interpret it differently and there is probably not much that could be done about it but I just don't see him being politically suicidal like that. He's probably eyeing 2024 too.

I think most people would assume that both seats would go to the same party almost certainly.  At least that's been my assumption.  If they're very tight races, it very well could be the anti black/female voters that make it a split decision. Although they're more likely to stay home I suppose.