Well the 2018 btc diff jumps are over so what will 2019 bring us? - page 12.

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4326

Merit: 8950

'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: wndsnb on October 01, 2019, 08:30:24 AM

Yup, lots of new efficient hardware coming online. CEO of MicroBT said he expects nethash to hit 120 EH by the end of the year.

https://www.coindesk.com/microbt-expects-400-million-q3-revenue-from-miner-sales-despite-chip-holdup

But that was when the price was still >$10,000. Could loose >20EH in S9s by then if prices stay this low.

That is interesting about the inquiries for mining operations. Must be a pretty good delay between asking for power quotes and bringing hash online. A good indicator of what's coming though...

Next year will see a lot of large builds. I read about a 300 megawatt build in Canada if it gets done and filled with m20s it will be a true beast.

90000 x 3.3 = 297 megawatts.

90000 x 68th = 6.12 eh that is about 6% of current network.

wndsnb

hero member

Activity: 544

Merit: 589

Yup, lots of new efficient hardware coming online. CEO of MicroBT said he expects nethash to hit 120 EH by the end of the year.

https://www.coindesk.com/microbt-expects-400-million-q3-revenue-from-miner-sales-despite-chip-holdup

But that was when the price was still >$10,000. Could loose >20EH in S9s by then if prices stay this low.

That is interesting about the inquiries for mining operations. Must be a pretty good delay between asking for power quotes and bringing hash online. A good indicator of what's coming though...

Epochjump

member

Activity: 129

Merit: 51

I wouldn't become overly optimistic. I've been in direct contact with 5 separate power companies in the last week and they ALL said they have multiple inquiries for large scale mining operations in their respective areas. It would appear that "Mining" has gone mainstream, but the actual protocols have not. I would venture a guess that by December we will be seeing 14-16 T Diff and $6,500.00 BTC/USD. I held all rewards/earnings the last few days between $7800.00 to $8200.00 because I was bullish against that support, but I'm going to sell those now. It appears there are strong Bear Paws still at hand. Let's not forget the constant flood of SHA 256 7nm out there still heading our way.

I'll try " Buy and Hold " again at the next flush out to $6500 - $7000.

wndsnb

hero member

Activity: 544

Merit: 589

Still in negative territory, 18 blocks behind. Looks like it might hold out this time...

The last time diff pulled back was 11/2018 when S9 break-even power price fell to near 6 cents/kWh. philipma1957 mentioned this before.

Right before, diff was practically flat for 6 weeks. The break-even power price for an S9 was at around 9.4 cents/kWh.

Diff started dropping when S9 break-even was at 8 cents/kWh and then really took a dip when it hit 6.1 cents/kWh.

It stopped dropping once we got back up to 7.8 cents/kWh, then settled out at around 6.5 cents/kWh during the recovery after.

Currently, at $8350 and 12.76T diff, we are at 6.8 cents/kWh for a 100W/TH S9. At $8000, this goes to 6.5 cents/kWh. At $7500, 6.1 cents/kWh.

Seems like we're right on the edge. If price goes down below $8000 for any amount of time we'll likely see a bunch more S9s get shut down all at once. If we don't get any big moves in price, it looks like we could end up stalling here as new hardware comes online and S9s slowly get shut down.

chart is from : https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/price-difficulty-btc.html#2y

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4326

Merit: 8950

'The right to privacy matters'

Could be the fire and the anniversary have halted some mining. We are down after 4 ½ days by 3%

Quote from: https://diff.cryptothis.com/

Latest Block:   597382 (14 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   96.5431% (647 / 670.17 expected, 23.17 behind)
Current Difficulty:   12759819404408.79XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 12355905274750 and 12538939012665
Next Difficulty Change:   between -3.1655% and -1.7311%
Previous Retarget:   last Thursday at 4:13 PM
Next Retarget (earliest):   October 10, 2019 at 10:42 PM (in 9d 14h 47m 19s)
Next Retarget (latest):   October 11, 2019 at 4:15 AM (in 9d 20h 20m 11s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 6h 28m 59s and 14d 12h 1m 52s

It is a welcome number to see along with coins moving to 8375 vs 8000 or 8100.

I would take a drop of 2% and coins closing at 8400 come next Jump.

alh

legendary

Activity: 1846

Merit: 1052

I also read something recently about some upcoming 70th anniversary celebration in China. There were some significant restrictions in Beijing to improve air quality leading up to that I think. Perhaps that has an impact on mining activity (i.e. reduce electricity demand)?

Steamtyme

legendary

Activity: 1568

Merit: 2037

Well I have no way to verify this for sure, but there appears to be a very large fire in a large facility.
https://twitter.com/OGBTC/status/1178672341225738240
Edit: Someone else had the video. - https://twitter.com/DoveyWan/status/1178706886750691329/video/1

Buddy calls it the Big DataCenter for Innosilicon. He has a tweet below that I would say is extreme for the amount of hahsrate they had there. Either way it's the sort of thing that can have a dampening effect on Diff now and going forward if this center was also say storage and QA burn-in as well. I just dropped this here but will see if any more stories come in. I'm on nights so lots of time in a few hours.
Edit: I do know there was a fire a few years ago but it does look like a different building. Still early I guess before it can be confirmed.

Philipma1957cellphone

full member

Activity: 416

Merit: 125

With 1 ph on line a 5 % diff drop is like a free s17🤞

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4326

Merit: 8950

'The right to privacy matters'

Diff is -1% guess the s9 gear is shutting down

Epochjump

member

Activity: 129

Merit: 51

Quote from: philipma1957 on September 28, 2019, 10:58:42 AM

...We know there are big boys looking to do big builds and they have committed good money. They may get cut hard real soon.

Oh they will....they always do. Then we buy their gear for pennies on the dollar and it all starts over again. The circle of life in mining.

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4326

Merit: 8950

'The right to privacy matters'

Big companies using natural gas at an oil field can contract an empty building and 3 cent Canadian power based on the cost of the excess nat gas.

I can get a three year contract for a megawatt with the building at that price.

But I need add multiple generators say four 250kwatt units or two 500kwatt generators. And that is expensive. I then need to wire the place and buy the miners.

So that two cent power cost goes way up.

Say 650 s9s with psu’s is 200k
Wiring is more then 50k
The generators are at least 250k

So 500000 and add three years of power you are pushing 900000 for the three years with zero for labor.

With zero for maintenance.

And they earn 1300 a day x 1100 days = 1430000 my guess is people did a projection like this

Used higher coin price and said I can turn 900000 into at least 1800000 in three years.

Then reality sets in. Gear breaks the numbers shift the 900k in turns into 1100k with over runs.

The 1800k out turns into 1350k

So 900k profit now looks like 250k profit. And if one generator breaks even with insurance repair contract that mining farm is scared money. Obvious I did a small place a 1 million setup.

We know there are big boys looking to do big builds and they have committed good money. They may get cut hard real soon.

wndsnb

hero member

Activity: 544

Merit: 589

14TH at 1333W, 5 cent power, and 12.76T diff, break even BTC price is $5770.

If price keeps sliding to below $6000, maybe we'll see the rate of S9 shutdown exceed the increase in new gear coming up and the diff could actually pull back some.

TheYankeesWin!

sr. member

Activity: 465

Merit: 301

Quote from: https://diff.cryptothis.com/

Latest Block:   596976 (18 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   99.6338% (241 / 241.89 expected, 0.89 behind)
Current Difficulty:   12759819404408.79XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 12773293208040 and 12819976211871
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.1056% and +0.4715%
Previous Retarget:   last Thursday at 4:13 PM
Next Retarget (earliest):   October 10, 2019 at 4:29 PM (in 12d 7h 57m 47s)
Next Retarget (latest):   October 10, 2019 at 5:27 PM (in 12d 8h 55m 14s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 0h 16m 39s and 14d 1h 14m 5s

It is just a tiny bit off the pace of 0%

Coins are at 8086

viabtc is paying 0.00001924 a th 14 x 0.00001924 = 0.00026936 btc a day or $2.18 a day if your s9 burns 32kwatts a day

So an s9 at
(14th 1333 watts)
profit charts are:

2.18-3.52 = 1.34 loss at 11 cent power
2.18-3.20 = 1.02 loss at 10 cent power
2.18-2.88 = 0.70 loss at 9 cent power
2.18-2.56 = 0.38 loss at 8 cent power
2.18-2.24 = 0.06 loss at 7 cent power

2.18-1.92 = 0.26 profit at 6 cent power

2.18-1.60 = 0.58 profit at 5 cent power
2.18-1.28 = 0.90 profit at 4 cent power
2.18-0.96 = 1.22 profit at 3 cent power
2.18-0.64 = 1.54 profit at 2 cent power
2.18-0.32 = 1.86 profit at 1 cent power
2.18-0.00 = 2.18 profit at "free" power

So last year we got close to s-9 breakeven at 6 cents and diff went flat for a month and then price went from 6000 to 3000 then diff did a steady tank.

The factors are more complex this year due to much more efficient gear available. As we have approached that 6 cent point break even range it does look like s9 miners are dropping out. Time will tell how this works out. Next 3 jumps and coin price for next six weeks will mean a lot for miners all over the world.

Epochjump

member

Activity: 129

Merit: 51

Two wild cards;
How many 7nm pre-sales are in the hands of Re-sellers? ( These guys could get their asses handed to them....again )
How many farms have done even TH for TH swap outs ? ( net effect on Diff, marginal )

These two wildcards can have a dramatic effect on Diff jumps in and of themselves. Add to these the 3rd wildcard...How many of these new units ended up in the hands of fast money "new farm" build outs who have gone waaaay out over their skis financially to get Hash on ASAP? Just like the last two times....I suspect A LOT!!

I see several reasons to be optimistic about future " Epochjumps". Wink

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4326

Merit: 8950

'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: ?? on ??

Yeah the s9's are most likely staying until diff is 14-16T

how many are on expensive power say 8 cent and up very few.

My guess is diff will rise to the 16t area and go flat for a while.

Lot of preorders are due to ship in
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan

Quote from: https://diff.cryptothis.com/

Latest Block:   596862 (7 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   96.6318% (127 / 131.43 expected, 4.43 behind)
Current Difficulty:   12759819404408.79XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 12522183044510 and 12730340145943
Next Difficulty Change:   between -1.8624% and -0.2310%
Previous Retarget:   Yesterday at 4:13 PM
Next Retarget (earliest):   October 10, 2019 at 5:38 PM (in 13d 3h 31m 28s)
Next Retarget (latest):   October 11, 2019 at 3:55 AM (in 13d 13h 48m 26s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 1h 25m 44s and 14d 11h 42m 42s

We are in negative territory.. I do not think it will last but maybe it will.

wndsnb

hero member

Activity: 544

Merit: 589

Current diff at 12.76T, 20% drop in BTC price in the last couple days, and no sign of hashrate slowing....

For nethash of 100ET/s, diff should settle to 14T. 130ET/sec would be 18.2T diff.

Break even at $8000 for a 13.5TH 1200W S9 is

7.35 cents at 12.76T
6.70 cents at 14T
5.15 cents at 18.2T

For Old s9s not running low power mode, 14TH @ 1450W

6.30 cents at 12.76T
5.75 cents at 14T
4.45 cents at 18.2T

alh

legendary

Activity: 1846

Merit: 1052

The decline continues, though perhaps more slowly: $7990 per coin.

Epochjump

member

Activity: 129

Merit: 51

Quote from: alh on September 26, 2019, 12:47:09 AM

BTC price is now down to $8391, I have no idea why.

Based on volume and price action, it is very likely that the shorts have been pounding heavily on BTC since $13,500 and on down. Short sellers are in the drivers seat for now but somewhere between 7k and 8.5 k they will need to cover these positions. I am a strong buyer at these price levels. There is still good fundamental progress in payment venues and apps and the overall story for the future of BTC and Co. is very good. I believe the shorts are nearing the end of this recent run.

wndsnb

hero member

Activity: 544

Merit: 589

Yeah, looks like hashrate is back to above 100eh. If you look at the daily hashrate average on https://www.blockchain.com/charts/hash-rate?, it does look like the rate of increase may have slowed. I guess if you look at a chart long enough you'll eventually just see what you want to see though... lol.

Me too ... if price stays there until my S17s ship in December maybe Bitmain will honor their pre-sale Reference/Actual price agreement and I'll end up with some credit.

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4326

Merit: 8950

'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: alh on September 26, 2019, 12:47:09 AM

BTC price is now down to $8391, I have no idea why.

Diff is moving up past 7% almost 12.8

At 8300 s9 gear is in trouble and there is 50 to 60eh mining ⛏ I would love to see us stay around 8000.

Topic: Well the 2018 btc diff jumps are over so what will 2019 bring us? - page 12. (Read 9460 times)