Topic: Well the 2018 btc diff jumps are over so what will 2019 bring us? - page 16. (Read 9460 times)

I won't pay 4.3k for a s17 pro 56t
https://shop.bitmain.com/product/detail?pid=000201907221827155251s708NgR0645

or 4093 for a s17 pro 53t
https://shop.bitmain.com/product/detail?pid=000201907230958541330hqc1V72065A

Even If I get it today.

What does interest me is how many do they have to sell?

Will they be truly new?

If they sell 1000 of each

it is 56000th plus 53000th or 109000th or 109 ph a drop in the bucket  since we are at 67000ph

If they sell 10000 of each it is 1090ph or 1.09 eh   since only 1 or 2 % jump.

so I do have an interest in the july  comes in 1 week sales.

Yeah -.056%, ideally get at least one more of those before the next jump up with the July batches of gear arriving and going online. I'm curious to see how long that gar stays available or if it still gets snatched up quick.

I can buy direct from bitmain?

Just looked yeah to the moon for the gear.

My town had a major blackout caused by straight line winds in excess of 95 mph.

I am running on a generator.

what was diff?  -0.5%?

Now you don't have to worry about the brokers, bitmain themselves have decided to charge nutjob prices if you want hardware now.

Makes perfect sense, however , if coin price was to go to 30k-50k in the next coming months , you will theoretically end up with more $ despite the fact that you get only 50% of whatever profit the gears make, selling your coins for such high prices along with getting rid of your old gears S9s + L3s for probably  triple the prices of now then waiting for the next bear market to fill your 350kwtas farms will all kind of new gen miners - that sounds like a perfect plan too.

but really come to think about it, luck will play a major rule in all of these speculation, because we have no clue how fast is the production for the new gears going at the moment or in the future , also we can't really spectate on how long will the bull run last, there is a lot into it than just numbers after all, over all one should be prepared for all different scenarios.

you need to understand my power deal is 50-50 split of coins.

I would have preferred us to stay at  4 to 7 because I would have been able to turn all old gear into new gear fairly easy.

 I now have excess power and can't get gear.  So coins going up fast make money for me but I will earn less btc as I won't pay to the fucking brokers the nut job prices they want for gear. So I will not fully build out my farm.

we may end up with 350kwatts after the 20% safety margin.

my deal is 50 50 split I provide all gear for that spilt   so basically .

I will end up with 175 kwatts of 'free' power

I don't want the price pressure now I want it later. As I have only 110-120kwatts against the 150-160 in play.

these 10k prices  mean all the s-9's stay in play.
yeah we dropped from 13.4k peak but a 6 cent power guy with 1000 s-9's paid off earns 1600 Usd a day

he is entrenched and there are lots of 6 cent guys with lots of s-9s

drop coins to 6k and that guy drops to 240 USD a day

the 7 cent and up guy goes by by as he has losing s9's at 7 cent power and 6k price.

So Since I have not been able to fill my farm with all s17 m20s a1041
I would not mind downward diff pressure that a lower price creates.

It is obvious I don't hold a lot of coin with that thinking. I have cash and credit to buy more gear.
But the  brokers fees and trump tax is really hard to get past.

Now to be honest if prices went to 40k I would mine with what I have and still make money.

But I would prefer to turnover all my s9's and l3s

20-25 s9's  maybe 250th some missing boards
25 l3s         about  11gh some missing boards
s7 ln
a721

could be gone if I had some more new gear.

still the diff was flat I will take it.

Phill what are your plans for when and if prices do go back to 7k or even 3k levels , I presume you need to be holding more cash than BTC for this to make sense, unless you have better plans I would hear about them if you don't mind, because as I explained above, for someone who has all or most of his investments already in BTC or mining gears, it's for their best interest that price keeps going up as fast as possible before diff could adjust, since price can do 2x in a month while the chances of diff doing 2x in a month are simply near zero.

next adjustment is nearly 14 hours away, looks like we are staying flat , something that I don't like given the fact that price is down 25%.

That it does, after the last go I was wondering if we were in for a couple double digit increases in a row. I would say this lends a lot of evidence to the fact that all this Nex Gen gear has capped out production capabilities across the board. I'm guessing we will be seeing waves every 2 or 3 adjustments as the new gear rolls out, I think most intervals for batches were 4-6 weeks apart.
No idea on price, I generally assume it will increase at some point and just hope I'm holding some at that point. That's the plan for now, I'm not looking to buy any gear for a while - to long of a wait for me. I actually diversified a little recently and am interested to see how things play out leading to the halving. 

While I would prefer a drop to 7k price even 5k I am set for a jump to 15k or 20k or even 30k.
We can also stay in the 9-11k number. Any and all prices work from 5k to 30k a coin.  After 30k coin price I think I wont be able to stay ahead of the diff.

We went from a 70kwatts to 150kwatts power cap and we may go all the way up to 350kwatts

If  prices move onwards and upwards I will slowly add new gear.  And the warehouse owner will add the extra 200kwatts.
Moving from 150 to 350kwatts

So I don't run into power cap issues for more then a year. Maybe 2 years.

Oh diff does look okay for next jump:


Buy solar and I are earning ½ the coins about 0.01 btc a day  or .3btc a month  we will add more gear as time goes on.

Maybe a 2000 usd piece each month.

We all mine BTC,banks mine USD (with way less efforts obviously ) but let's face it , fiat is still dominating our lives , until the electricity company fixes their power rate in BTC , fiat value will always be important.

also wishing for price to go one way or the other has to do with what your plans are , I personally want to see prices increase so that I can sell whatever I mined in the last couple months + whatever I am going to mine + current gears till I think the bull run is over, hodl Fiat , wait for new Gen miners like S17 to drop in price , buy whole lots of them in the preparation for the next bull run , rinse and repeat.

but that does not make a lot of sense to someone who's income is in fiat, but to me I have invested almost all of my fiat saving in BTC and mining already so i don't really benefit from prices drop anymore, I need prices to go high to refill my fiat bag and wait for prices to go down to get me a better position in both mining and holding.

I sold at 12000 at 12500 at 13000 and at 13400.

Still have some coin.  Plus lots of paid off gear.

650th of 890th is better then the s-9

then 220th s-9

and some shit miners  some s7  some a721  maybe 20th in that.

the 650th is all 65 watts a th or better.

s17
t17
s15
t15

m20s
m10

inno t3 t37

    I would love to see a squeeze on the s9's.
  I estimate a 7k  price would put a lot of s9's to rest.

Time will tell.

I rather enjoyed the run-up. Cashing out at the high point is allowing me to build a shop off the last few coins I've managed to hold since early last year without losing money on 'em, and the increase in sales after almost a year of between barely breaking even and operating on depleted savings is making it easier to afford luxuries like food and the phone bill.

Diff is getting a bit nuts though, but it's still lower than it would have been had the market not been tanked on purpose end of last year. That caused a lot of bleeding. But finally killing off the S9 wouldn't be too bad.

I also want the price to go down, the newbs only look at $/day, price is volatile, so patience is key. I'm not selling for a while, at least not until after the halving. The S9s should be flushed out by then.

Yeah I would prefer price drops to under 7k.

It would put the s9s out of the loop.

Most of the hash is still s9s.

I wish the price would go back to ~4K. I’m a miner of BTC not USD higher prices just increase the diff.

Well back under 10k  around 9600.  The s9's do not look so good as they did with coins at 12-13k.

Diff dropping just a bit.  I like the 7-9k price range to keep diff in check as those prices put pressure on s9 miners

This jump looks much Kinder to miners.


It would be nice to see it be around -1 to +1%

I expanded  my post  and I see s-9's being a factor until diff is 14.8 with a price of 12,300.

Just noticed bitmain have "new" s9's on the site the sk9 and s9-SE..
half expecting a bunch more of these to come online soon and also with the BTC price rise more machines are back on.

yeah a big jump of 14.3%

Maybe this next jump will be less.

It is hard to tell  as s9's  make money  and there are over 30eh of them  maybe more like 40 eh of them.

We will see growth slow when the s-9's  stop being winning gear since there are a lot of them.

$1.34 a day at 10 cent power and diff of 9t with price at 12300

$1.65 a day at  9 cent power

$1.99 a day at 8 cent power

$2.27 a day at 7 cent power

$2.56 a day at 6 cent power

$2.90 a day at 5 cent power

$3.21 a day at 4 cent power

$3.52 a day at 3 cent power

If price can stay at 10-15k   levels  the s-9  will stabilize the diff  since there are so many of them.

and as diff creeps up dropping s-9s will act as downward pressure on the diff.

It is easy to see us go to a diff of 11t at a price of 12300 since the s9 would be viable at 8 cents with that diff of 11t  and price of 12300

diff of 14t and price of 12300  squeezes out  all s-9s over 8.8 cent power

last year in oct we were at   6100 and a diff of 7.4  which made me start the threads.  those numbers made s9's  earn only 58 cents at 6.8 cent power.

so if we get to price of 12200 and a diff of 14.8   s9s are back to earning  only 58 cents at 6.8 cent power.

So we just need wait and see. If that same downward pressure starts on the s-9's .

since diff is only 9t  and price is 12,300 we can go to 14.8t before s9's  become next to worthless